The Commstock Report

09/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video New Recommendations Day 3:  Reco 1: Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Filled on Aug. 31. Reco 2: Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 3: Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 4: Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. Filled on Aug. 31. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. New Month, Money Still Flowing Long On the Grains: The flip of the calendar to September didn’t change anything in the grain and soy markets overnight, aside from corn not being the price leader. Instead, soybeans, soy oil and the winter wheat markets paced the overnight gains. Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets all posted contract highs. Soyoil futures filled the July 27 gap on the daily chart, with the EPA’s small refinery exemptions deemed better than feared (see “Other Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below for details…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/31/2026 You can see that there is about 50 BPA Missing! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update These were ears of our corn checked on one of our farms during the GammaQ crop tour earlier this month. The tip-back that was evident was a surprise. It probably should not have been considering the record high average July heat when stress degree days began to accumulate. If there are enough ears and they fill well there is still yield potential. The tour estimated our average yield on this field to be 250 bpa so it was not the end of the world. Our corn never showed drought stress but the crop responded to the heat extreme nevertheless. We believe that we have 300 bpa yield potential in our genetics and choice of maturity each season. We have never averaged 300 bpa so something happens every year to tip back the crop somehow. Climate scientists reference heat this summer as being comparable to 1936 which brings back the 89-year drought cycle narrative. If farmers in the plains states still farmed using the practices of the…

08/31/2026 New Recommendations Day 2:  Reco 1: Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Reco 2: Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 3: Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 4: Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Month-End Positioning, But Bulls Dominated August On the Grains: Corn and soybean futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn trading near unchanged and soybeans under light pressure early this morning. Wheat futures are facing heavier corrective selling, especially in the winter wheat markets. Markets will continue to be influenced by money flow, with weather, geopolitics, biofuels policy and other factors influencing investor decisions, so volatility is likely to remain elevated. Biofuels policy: EPA is expected today to announce its decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. Two things to consider.…

Grains were set up for follow-through on stronger settlements from Friday but buying could eventually give way to a back-and-fill trade that coincides with month-end profit-taking. Top influences include flaring of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a Venezuelan oil deal, and traders waiting for the decision on biofuel waivers. In the Headlines Interest rate expectations shifted sharply again on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at the Jackson Hole conference. Warsh expressed concern about high inflation and referenced interest rates as the main tool for stabilizing prices. The odds of a Fed funds rate hike coming from the September meeting jumped to 57 percent likely, up from 35 percent on Thursday. The market reaction featured higher bond yields and a stronger dollar along with a reversal down for gold and silver. President Trump announced another deal to bring down prices, this one involving the Venezuelan oil and the rights to untapped production fields holding an estimated 65 billion barrels. The U.S. government was granted majority ownership in a company that can buy the oil at cost under an agreement lasting 100 years.  The company would own the rights to about one-third of the country’s oil output capacity,…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/28/2026 Watch Out for Weaker Basis and Spreads PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update New Recommendation:  Recco #1:  Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Recco #2   Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00.   Recco #3:  Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00.  Recco #4:  Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. Today is the last day for September grain longs to be liquidated or rolled before the risk of taking delivery comes on Monday. You would not expect many deliveries in this environment where the nearby corn spread is historically wide and while there are very few traders with old-crop soybeans available to let go of. The September/December corn futures spread is somewhat of a standout for it being the third year in a row that it has moved out past 20 cents, which is the rough calculation of "full carry" for offering compete coverage of the costs of storage, insurance, and interest associated with holding the grain. It may be partly that…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/28/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Ending On A High Note On the Grains Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight as bulls look to cap off a strong week of trade with a flurry. Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets all marked contracts highs overnight, while front-month futures jumped to fresh multi-year highs on the continuation charts. What a week bulls have had – to this point. Traders await EPA’s decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year that will have implications for corn and soyoil (soybeans by association) demand – and therefore could be a major market mover. There have been lots of rumors and newswire reports this week citing “people familiar with the situation.” As of Thursday evening, nothing had been finalized, though the latest report from Reuters said the Trump administration was considering a plan that would increase biofuel quotas for the 2027 calendar year by roughly 500 million gallons to offset any damage caused by bigger-than-originally-planned SREs, which in theory could be exempted later as well. The administration seems hell bent on trying to lower fuel prices by granting more SREs. Good…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/27/2026 Asymmetric attack on NATO PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Another something else you should know about that is not widely common knowledge being under-reported by the primary media or not having yet made the dominant headline of the day, is the aggressive warming conflict between Russia and NATO that is unfolding. Could be a reason why US CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a trip to Moscow this week. That news was kept quiet compared to Dolly Parton death. As with stories such as the security risk of the Qatari Air Force One, US missile inventory depletion, the logistical challenges faced by our military to sustain itself in the Iran war that were not news until they were, there are other similar story lines waiting in the wings under the surface that would be "news" to a majority of Americans still in the dark. Here is another one that should be a banner headline that we will spotlight: Kiev Post: Chuck Pfarrer retired Seal Team 6 Leader Abbreviated Transcript: "In the early evening of August 5, 2026, a quadcopter penetrated the controlled…

08/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Buckle Up; Please Keep Hands & Feet Inside for Duration of The Ride On the Grains Front-month SRW wheat futures pushed to the highest levels in three years overnight before sharply retreating. Futures are trading around 20 cents off their overnight highs early this morning. Of note: SRW and HRW contracts have expanded limits of 70 cents today. Corn and soybeans are lower on pullbacks from Wednesday’s strong gains. Wheat remains a geopolitically headline-driven market, with focus on the Black Sea region. Russia increased its barrage on Ukraine’s grain export hub in the Odesa Oblast overnight with more than seven hours of missel and drone attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top official said talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials could be held in ‌September and include U.S. representatives. Export abilities for both countries have been compromised over the past two months, causing concerns about supplies from the region. Traders have added roughly $1.50 of war/geopolitical premium to front-month SRW futures during that time. Soyoil futures are under heavy pressure again this morning as the market braces for EPA’s pending announcement on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year,…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/26/2026 If the Toothpaste wasn't out of the Tube…it is Now! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After opening the US beef market to imports, the initials MAGA appear to mean Make Argentina Great Again. Argentina First…US cattlemen get the leftovers. When Donald Trump definitively says that beef prices were too high and he intended to lower them…you should believe him. There is the political calculation that there are more beef consumers who vote than there are cattle producers and heck…most cattle producers will vote for him anyway…he is sure of that. Cattlemen will huff and puff voicing indignation over Trumps action that will accordingly bring cattle prices down with beef prices. I told you repeatedly in previous reports that it is 2026 and something would happen cyclically that would produce a big break in cattle prices this year. Trump gave fair warning. The Trump administration, with the support of Ag Secretary Rollins, was blaming high beef prices on the previous administration like they always do. That should be good enough for many still on team Trump though the number of devoted…

08/26/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets All Bulled Up on Grains, Bearish Livestock On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of buying in the grain and soy markets overnight, jumping to double-digit gains. Soyoil was the exception, as it traded sharply lower amid biofuels concerns as traders await EPA’s decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. Wheat traders have come to the realization that Russia’s ag ministry plan to eliminate grain export taxes through year-end will have little meaningful impact on export volumes as port infrastructure has been damaged and attacks between Russia and Ukraine continue in the Black Sea. A surprise visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe on Tuesday briefly revived hopes that Washington may be trying to reopen a diplomatic channel between Russia and Ukraine, but there is little evidence yet that either Moscow or Kyiv is prepared to make the concessions needed for a broader settlement — or even for a durable truce. Ratcliffe's surprise Moscow trip is significant because Washington and Moscow are communicating at a senior level when the formal peace process has largely gone dormant. But communication should not be confused with convergence.…