The Commstock Report

08/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video New Month, Same Volatile Factors in Play On the Grains Grain and soy markets favored the downside overnight as traders monitored weather, geopolitical events and potential Chinese demand. The same volatile market factors that shaped price action through July are still in play as the calendar has flipped to August. Weather is the primary focal point for corn and soybeans and leans bearish, as rains swept across the Corn Belt from Friday through Sunday, providing a needed shot of moisture for many areas. But the driest locations in the northwestern Corn Belt, including northwestern Iowa, had disappointing results. This week’s forecast calls for additional rainfall chances and cooler temperatures. Geopolitics are a mixed bag. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s grain export capabilities in the Black Sea region. Both have warned of reduced exports while seeking alternative routes. Meanwhile, the sitaution in the Middle East is pivoting back to diplomacy, with President Trump saying the U.S. would engage in talks with Iran today. Chinese demand is cautiously optimisic. More daily sales of U.S. soybeans could surface, with China rumored to have purchased multiple cargoes for shipment out of…

Weather leanings shaped expectations for a softer market start. Just as it was raining in Chicago on Friday to help dampen bullishness in grains, traders will focus on more rain coming to break up the heat in the Eastern Corn Belt forecast. War risks were still the possible wildcard for turning prices back higher. The week should also feature follow-up on Chinese export demand and fresh news for biofuels. In the Headlines The end of the week/end of the month brought out position-squaring pressure against the grains, led by wheat futures, which had been the best performer of July. September Chicago wheat futures kept a gain of 50 cents for the month while the Kansas City contract was up 96 1/2. December corn finished July up 28 cents and November soybeans were up 43 3/4. Traders will keep a close eye on the stock market after last week's volatility surrounding nervousness over technology company earnings and the potential overleveraging of investors in the artificial intelligence sector. There was contagion from South Korea's stock market selling off sharply due to huge losses in names including Samsung Electronics, one of the highly-levered single-stock ETFs that retail investors were getting blown out of.…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/31/2026 August Seasonal Trends to Know PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Last day of July. August will open up new stages of the growing season, being known as the make-or-break month for soybeans and the most critical window for grain fill in corn. The dog days of summer continue to stoke concerns over heat and humidity before late August can feature minor cold fronts that mesh with increasing hurricane activity. August weather dictates final yield and quality prospects for crops including spring wheat in the North and cotton in the South. Crop tours eventually kick off in August and the USDA puts boots on the ground to launch objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans. August is sometimes associated with thinner market volumes as summer vacations wrap up before kids are back to school. The month is marked by grain traders for having produced lows the last two years for corn and soybean futures. After grain prices defied their usual patterns of bearishness this July, be wary of expecting another round of August lows. Be aware of these seasonal price trends…

07/31/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains A Wet Blanket On Corn, Soybeans On the Grains: Grain and soy futures are under pressure this morning, aside from soymeal which is modestly firmer. After filling the July 20 gap yesterday, December corn futures are making for-the-move lows. November soybeans and the wheat markets are holding above their recent lows for now. A broad swath of rain is moving across the western Corn Belt and will push into the eastern Belt later this morning, providing timely moisture for developing corn and soybeans. However, amounts were light in the driest areas of the western Corn Belt and limited rainfall is expected in these areas through Monday. China’s Soybean Buys Continue New-crop soybean sales to China as of July 23 increased to 2.781 MMT – the most for the date since 2022-23. If you add in daily sales since July 23, China’s new-crop commitments are just over 3 MMT. That’s 12% of the 25 MMT the U.S. says China pledged to buy. There’s another 2.829 MMT of new-crop soybean sales on the books to unknown destinations, which is likely China. The combined 5.6 MMT would be 22.4% of the pledged…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/30/2026 The End of the World Order as We Knew It PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I am on vacation this week meeting our family in Brazil. After drinking Matthew and Carol's coffee, I am looking forward to seeing the trees it comes from in Minas Gerais. The Seibt family, Matthew's in-laws there, expanded their coffee production a few years ago and his wife Carol and Matthew began importing it into the US. I'm leaving you with this report which was derived from Ian Bremmer's TED Talk adapted into a structured article format. Ian is considered to be the worlds foremost geopoliticist taking nothing away from Peter Zeihan. The Three New World Orders: Who Really Runs the Planet? For decades, answering the question "Who runs the world?" was simple. If you grew up during the Cold War, you lived in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the global order shifted into a unipolar world, with the United States acting as the sole global superpower—exerting raw power and dominating global…

07/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Today’s Grain Market Focus: Geopolitics On the Grains: Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drones ​attacked a major grain ‌export terminal at Russia's Taman port on the Kerch ​Strait linking the ​Black Sea and the Sea ⁠of Azov, inflicting “significant ​damage.” Three of Russia's biggest Black Sea grain terminals, including ZTKT at Taman, had already restricted grain deliveries arriving by truck. As loadings and shipments from the Black and Azov seas slow, Russia is expected to lean harder on its Baltic ports, though they handle only a small fraction of Russian grain exports and the longer route is both time consuming and more costly. With a smaller Russian crop being harvested and July shipments already trimmed, the logistics tax on the world’s biggest wheat supplier is rising. Corn and soybeans, which faced heavy selling on pressure from an improved weather outlook on Wednesday, mildly rebounded on the coattails of wheat’s surge. Weather models continue to show widespread rains over a large area of the Corn Belt during the next week, including some of the driest areas. Weather models haven’t changed… market focus and leadership has. With several major volatile factors driving…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/29/2026 August Weather Outlook Improving/Brazil Expansion Pausing PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Not surprisingly, oppressive heat over the weekend chipped away at crop condition ratings with some regions reaching triple digits temps. While extreme heat continues to linger in North Dakota, the worst appears to be behind us as temperatures fall back within normal ranges. We keep hearing that crops look better than expected but will need a rain soon. The forecast does show a strong chance of widespread showers this next week bringing relief of 1" or more in many areas. This rain won't be enough to get us to the finish line, but it will be an extremely important rain as time has run out. Figure 1: Rainfall Forecast Through August 2nd Stress Degree Days are quickly accumulating, surpassing the 140-point day threshold, generally considered to be detrimental to yield in many areas in the Western Corn Belt. Follow the red line in the image below. Most of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and large portions of South Dakota are well past the threshold. There are regions in South Central South Dakota…

07/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wetter Forecast Pressures Beans; China Buying Opportunity? On the Grains After a firmer start, soybeans turned lower overnight and are posting double-digit losses early this morning. November soybeans have dropped below Tuesday’s lows and bears are now targeting the bottom of the July 20 gap at $12.04. Corn and wheat futures are drifting lower on spillover from soybeans. Near-term weather forecasts continue to call for above-normal temperatures to persist over at least the next two weeks, though oppressive heat isn’t expected. Traders’ greater weather focus is forecasts calling for multiple rainfall chances, including in the dry areas of the western and northern Corn Belt, during that timeframe to provide relief from recent crop stress. The European model continues to show more rainfall than the U.S. model, but even the American model signals relatively widespread rains through Aug. 5. China state stockpiler Sinograin will auction 503,694 MT of soybean reserves procurred from 2022 to 2025 to the domestic market on Friday. This is the first soybean auction of state reserves since Jan. 13. Key will be the volumem purchased and the average sales price. Regular weekly sales of around 500,000 MT…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/28/2026 No Good Exit from the Escalation PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Exchanged threats from combatants have gone unheeded in Trumps Middle East war. Trump vows that if Iran attacks any vessel in the region that the US will destroy a bridge, power plant or some other infrastructure target in Iran. Iran's response is that then they will do likewise in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE or Qatar. The disruption of shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf is being extended to the Red Sea. That shuts off an alternate oil export route the Saudis were using via pipeline. Iran also has more missiles left than we do interceptors so US air forces are moving some assets to bases in Israel for dome protection. One could read that as "we are tactically retreating". That said, the airstrikes on Iran continue and some new assets are continually arriving in theater that will bolster US forces there. A military solution has not shown promise to date and Iran shows no interest in a political one to date. These threats are exchanged, then made good upon,…

07/28/2026 New Reco Day 3: Reward the soybean rally by setting a sales target of 10% of November 2027 soybeans at $12. We are already well advanced on 2026 sales. If you are behind, we advise catching up on those sales. While we believe there is still long-term upside potential, the market is perceived to be overbought and susceptible to eventual corrections. Call your broker for short-dated option ideas that may help add value to your sales. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Split Focus Leads to Quieter Overnight Trade On the Grains Corn futures are trying to cling to mild corrective gains after the sharp decline in crop condition ratings. Weakness in the soybean and wheat markets is limiting buyer interest. November soybeans entered the July 20 chart gap but haven’t fill it, leaving a target for bears at $12.04. Overnight price action signals corn crop deterioration has a little of traders’ attention, though forecasts calling for moderating though still above-normal temperatures and multiple rainfall chances are limiting…