The Commstock Report

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/13/2026 Fresh Test for Chinese Trade Relations Next Week PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference. With trade between the U.S. and China an expected point of discussion, agricultural market participants wait with particular anticipation to see if the two leaders strike an agreement on lowered reciprocal tariffs. The potential for China to remove existing agricultural tariffs determines the future demand for U.S. soybean exports beyond the previous purchase commitment and shapes the competiveness of exports for other crops including corn, wheat, and cotton. While soybean export sales to China are on track to meet the standing purchase promise of 25 million metric tons, traders have expressed bearish skepticism about the demand shutting off once that total is reached. The target is double what was bought in the last marketing year, but still down considerably from over 35 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans purchased by China in 2020. Trade volume in excess of 25 million metric tons could more likely be achieved this year…

11/13/2026 Bearish Stretch Snapped, Price Recovery Underway Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video due to technical issues.On the Grains: Grain and soy markets traded higher overnight, led by double-digit gains in soybeans and the winter wheat markets. Soybeans have pushed to new weekly highs, while corn and wheat are still well below highs posted earlier this week. Markets are poised to snap their extended weekly losing streaks that have persisted for 10 weeks for wheat, six for corn and four for soybeans. In the aftermath of USDA’s tightening of the U.S. soybean and corn balance sheets earlier this week, demand is in greater focus. USDA announced daily soybean sales of 136,000 MT to China on Thursday and there’s chatter or more buying by China’s state-owned firms. Additional comments by China’s commerce ministry yesterday suggest China will push toward its commitment on non-soybeans agricultural purchases once tariffs are rolled back, which it encouraged as soon as possible. The clamoring for the tariff rollback to happen as soon as possible suggests the buying will be from commercial firms and not just state-owned companies. Wheat is a likely commodity China will purchase as there appears to be…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/12/2026 Years Ending in 6 are Historically the Worst in Cattle Feeding…It is 2026. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 of 2 2026 was different. First off feedlot profits had been phenomenal, setting records this cycle but so has the dramatic swing in feedlot margins resulted in a record $850 head decline (high to low) from peak profitably to recent market lows. Feedlots recorded some record market loses of $340 head. Now let's look at the recent record from Farmdocdaily on net profitability of feeding steers specifically in Kansas since the 2016 cycle low: There is a lot of red on that chart. Iowa was marginally better. I have been told that bedded barns in Iowa have a $30-$35 head cost-of-gain advantage over an open pen in KS. The barns improve feedlot performance in the heat of the summer. Looking back at 2016 there was a lot of red. Someone has calculated that over the course of periods of time that feeding cattle had been a net breakeven exercise. There were a number of years when closeouts swung from $50…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/11/2026 Years Ending in 6 are Historically the Worst in Cattle Feeding…It is 2026. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 During the Covid episode, beef packers needed dump-trucks to haul windfall profits to the bank as curtailed kills depressed cattle prices and inflated beef prices. Feedlot losses and drought ganged up on producers pausing any action toward expanding the herd in this cycle. The money trucks then went into reverse causing packers to recoil from losses caused by shrinking fed cattle numbers while ranchers are gaining a historical period of profitability. This chart above is generally how a cattle cycle works but there is more to it than changing supply. The cattle market is connected at the hip to the wealthiest demographic of Americans for which steak has always been a part of their diets. They economize by eating smaller portions. That comes with age as well. Demand is also a part of the cattle cycle and what we learned in this is how resilient and elastic beef demand actually is to higher prices. There is a difference…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/11/2026 New Reco #1 Day 2: Sell back our $4.50 Dec puts for 5 cents or better.  New Reco #2 Day 2: On 40% of expected production, buy the March $4.65 calls and Sell $4.40 March puts for net cost of 10 cents or better. (Taking into consideration the 5 cents we pick up in the value of those puts, the cost of Recco #2 would be less than a nickel). *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Focus Shifts To Demand, South American Weather A Salute To All Veterans Government offices are closed today in observance of Veterans Day. Markets will trade normal schedules. CommStock salutes all of those who served/are serving and those that lost loved ones serving our great country. On the Grains Corn and soybeans pulled back from Tuesday’s strong gains overnight amid profit-taking. Wheat futures mildly extended above yesterday’s highs as traders covered short positions amid ongoing…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/10/2026 WASDE REPORT BULLISH PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update F12Recco #1: Sell back our $4.50 Dec puts for 5 cents or better.  Recco #2: On 40% of expected production, buy the March $4.65 calls and Sell $4.40 March puts for net cost of 10 cents or better.  (Taking into consideration the 5 cents we pick up in the value of those puts, the cost of Recco #2 would be less than a nickel). Farmers looking for a strong signal that the harvest lows are in, got what they wished for today.  The corn market had given up nearly $1/bu the past six weeks, after last month’s bearish surprise sending yield estimates higher.  It appears they overcorrected last month when they added 2.7 bpa to the national yield.  They attempted to course correct in the November WASDE by trimming yield 1.6 bpa bringing the national yield down to 179.6 bpa.  Despite decreasing exports and feed usage, ending stocks still fell to an estimated 1.758 billion bushels.  While not as low as September projections, it is a step in the right direction.  By…

11/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Just Need No Bearish Surprise to Start Price Recovery On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets traded higher on light corrective buying overnight as traders await USDA’s November crop reports at 11 a.m. CT. After last month’s shocking jump in corn yield and production estimates, there’s some trepidation ahead of the reports. But after two-plus months of heavy fund selling and price pressure, anything shy of a bearish surprise in the data could be all that’s needed for corn and soybeans to secure seasonal lows and start a price recovery. Traders are also monitoring the peace talks in Abu Dhabi between the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. As the first peace talks got underway, Russia attacked energy infrastructure in eight Ukrainian regions, raising concerns about Moscow’s commitment and sincerity to the peace talks. Following are pre-report expectations from a Reuters survey of analysts. Note: There continues to be a huge range of nearly 10 bu. for corn yield. If you throw out the two outliers, the range tightens to 2 bu. and the average estimate would increase to 180.6 bu. per acre, which is the median estimate.…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/09/2026 Big USDA Report Tomorrow PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update StoneX Yield estimates are the top of the range for both corn at 183.1 bpa and soybeans at 55 bpa. If I disagreed with them… I would tell you. I don't. November WASDE Estimates  StoneX Corn Estimates (2026/27) Yield: 183.1 bushels per acre (up 1 bpa from StoneX's previous forecast and above the USDA's 181.2 bpa estimate) Total Production: 16.2 billion bushels (above the USDA's forecast of 16.03 billion) Ending Stocks / Carryout: Projected around 1.920 billion bushels (higher than the trade average estimate of 1.840 billion bushels) StoneX Soybean Estimates (2026/27) Yield: 55.0 bushels per acre (up from previous forecasts and higher than the USDA's 53.1 bpa estimate) Total Production: 4.725 billion bushels (approx. 128.6 million tons) Ending Stocks / Carryout: Projected around 363 million bushels I have been forecasting a record 2026 yield for soybeans since they were planted last spring. As I look at the trendline yield for soybeans, that should be near 54 bpa. StoneX, at 55 bpa, fits my direction. Soybean yields in MN, IA and…

11/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds’ Least Bullish Grain/Soy Position Since June On the Grains: Corn and soybean futures mildly favored the upside overnight. Wheat markets struggled to find buyers overnight, though they held above last week’s lows. The key market event this week will be USDA’s November crop reports on Tuesday. Typically by November most of the focus has started shifting from U.S. crop size and yield to demand – and South American production. After the shocking corn yield increase in October, however, there’s a level of supply uncertainty ahead of USDA’s Nov. 10 reports. Note: Funds will go into the reports with their least bullish stance in months, with the combined net long in grain and soy markets down to just 205,332 futures contracts; only 156,761 for futures and options combined. Funds have built a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. They were still long 8,795 corn futures, though it was a net short of 22,900 contracts when including options. That’s the first net short stance in corn since June. They remained long the soy complex, though that positions have been dramatically reduced. Following are pre-report expectations from a Reuters survey…

Grains have potential for follow-through higher behind positive Friday settlements for corn and soybean futures. Traders will remain tentative amid heightened outside market volatility and ahead of the Tuesday crop report. In the Headlines Thursday's stock market slump was noted for erasing $2.5 trillion of value from the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Investors expressed worry that new Democratic governors and lawmakers would block the construction of data centers. That concern was fueled in part by comments from the governor elect in Texas that promised a moratorium on new data center approvals, although she has indicated that already permitted projects will be allowed to continue. The Nasdaq rebounded on Friday but still finished lower for a fourth straight week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Friday had a video call with the Chinese Vice Premier in charge of trade talks, with the two U.S. officials explicitly asking for follow-through on China's prior commitments to open the market for rare earth minerals and meet its targets for agricultural purchases. Talks are increasing again in preparation for President Trump's next meeting with Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific economic conference in China on November 18 and 19. There were fresh reports…