The Commstock Report

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/22/2026 Spencer Iowa Needs a Data-Center PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Presidents Truth Social Post read: "The only reason that communities throughout the U.S.A. should not want data centers is if they want to end up being backwards and poor. If they want to be successful and rich, with far lower taxes and jobs all over the place, let Data Reign. The good news is that there are plenty of other places that want them. If we kill the Golden Goose, you will only have yourselves to blame. China could not be happier with this anti Data Center movement. Actually, they can't believe it is happening! Thank You for your attention!” I do not start out with an objective of disagreeing with President Trump…but on most issues that is just how it often works out. On the topic of data-centers, this time is an exception. “I agree with President Trump!” Steady yourself from the shock. I champion economic growth and data-centers are the largest source of economic growth the country has seen since the US industrialization of the WWII war…

09/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Will Trade Deal Delivery Enough to Keep Funds Buying? On the Grains After follow through buying to Monday’s strong gains early in the overnight session, grain and soy complex futures turned lower and remain under pressure early this morning. Funds actively added to their record combined length in the grain and soy markets on Monday, but markets remain in their recent consolidation ranges as traders are pausing as they await results of the meeting later this week between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping in Washington. Funds have a lot at stake and will need positive results to maintain their aggressive long stance as harvest picks up. Even positive results could turn into a sell-the-fact reaction. With the U.S./China trade truce set to expire in November, all eyes are on whether the two sides can agree on an extension and, if an agreement can be reached, how long it will last. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said on Monday a three to six-month extension is possible. Aside from the trade truce extension, key for agriculture remains any rollback of tariffs from both sides, including 10% duties on U.S. farm goods.…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/21/2026 Supply Chain Reformation Equals More Risk PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update It takes time for a global system that was ingrained as much as globalization was to unravel and then reform. De-globalization of the world economy is the trend and the trade war initiated by the US has given it a kick in the rear-end. Geo-political turmoil is contributing to the unravelling. Ironically so is the climate. It was not a great time for the weather to add to the economic disruption. There was a lot of public and political discord expressed over the impact that globalization had on the US world economy but they may come to regret losing it when the costs are totaled. What globalization did was find the least cost producer of everything.  A Boeing jetliner may have hundreds of parts suppliers from dozens of companies.  Transportation logistics improved until delivery was just-in-time. Boeing bought those parts where they could be purchased the cheapest. That was the purpose of expanded supply chains. There were bonafide concerns over how countries and suppliers became the low-cost producers but…

09/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video U.S./China Optimism Builds; Trade Details Awaited On the Grains: Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight with the exception of soyoil, which traded lower. U.S. and Chinese officials were upbeat following a Sunday meeting that set the groundwork for Xi Jinping’s visit to Washington, which Beijing confirmed will be from Sept. 23-25. Optimism that agriculture will feature prominently in the Trump/Xi discussions is fueling grain and soy markets to open the week. Key developments, The Sunday meeting led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and China’s top trade negotiator Li Chenggang didn’t produce an extension of the trade truce, though that’s expected to be finalized during Xi’s visit. The two sides moved to operationalize a U.S./China Board of Trade. Discussions include potential tariff reductions on “non-sensitive” goods, including agricultural products, part of a broader initiative to ease barriers on $30 billion worth of products from each side under the Board of Trade mechanism. China purchased more cargoes of U.S. soybeans late last week, with Bloomberg saying state-owned firmed booked at least four cargoes – about 260,000 MT – mainly for loading in December and January from…

Grains poised to find light buying interest in rebound of a weaker close on Friday. In the Headlines U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were meeting with a Chinese official on Sunday to prepare for Chinese President Xi Jinping visit President Trump at the White House on Thursday. Among the major talking points will be trade and tariffs, the war with Iran, and regulations for artificial intelligence. The event's outcomes may be referenced as part of a preface for the next Trump/Xi meeting expected in November at the Asia-Pacific economic conference in November. Ukraine launched a major attack on Moscow over the weekend as Russia was holding parliamentary elections, including within the Crimean Peninsula and other territories annexed from Ukraine. Russia's response to the assault was being awaited along with the response to the new U.S. sanctions bill that President Trump signed on Friday. The bill included new sanctions against Russian politicians as well as language that could allow tariffs against countries buying Russian oil, such as China. Last week featured the first Federal Reserve Bank rate hike since July 2023. The central bank raised the Fed funds rate by a quarter point, to 4…

09/18/2026 Grain Exports: Records and Rankings PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Congratulations, corn exporters; it was another record year with an estimated 3.425 billion bushels shipped. It helped having so much more to sell, with farmers already having the award for producing a record-high 17 billion bushel corn crop in 2025. Thank you to top customer Mexico for buying nearly one billion bushels of U.S. corn. Soybean exports did not achieve a new record and it was instead the lowest total since 2012, but we did welcome back China and now recognize that the People's Republic did purchase 12 million metric tons as promised. Wheat exports were up to a five-year high but still somewhat historically unimpressive. Looking back at who bought what over the last marketing year may have something to say for the 2027 outlook. Corn exports posted growth of an astounding 19 percent from the previous year's record, possibly more after we see future adjustments. The corn trade strength surprised USDA again, with the latest estimate up 225 million bushels from the January prediction. The protracted Mexican border closure would have been one possible factor for corn…

09/18/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets In Pause Mode On the Grains Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil faced price pressure overnight, while corn and wheat pivoted around unchanged. For the week, December corn is near unchanged, November soybeans are up about a dime, soymeal is sharply higher, soy oil is lower and the wheat markets are narrowly mixed, as markets hold in broader consolidation ranges. Nothing significant changed fundamentally or technically this week. Markets are in pause mode as they await next week’s meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. In the Black Sea, attacks between Russia and Ukraine continue, with grain exports restricted by damage to transportation and shipping infrastructure. But the wheat market is showing fatigue to those headlines. An issue that may garner more attention is the slow winter wheat seeding pace in Russia. Winter wheat seedings are running well behind average. A majority of Russian farmers intend to reduce wheat plantings amid a shortage of funds for fuel, seed, fertilizers and other inputs. The lack of exports due to port damage has slowed buying of wheat by exporters, leaving farmers without sufficient funds for sowing winter wheat. Weather across the central…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/17/2026 Interest rates are Rising-Good News if you have Cash! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Fed raised its rates as expected by a quarter point but did it matter when the bond market had pre-empted the Fed trading higher interest to finance the government debt? The Fed sets short term rates that banks pay, but the bond market trumps even the Fed. The 10-year Treasury reached the 5% parameter, where Dr. Ed Yardeni says the stock market will begin to really care about rising interest rates. He reduced his upside target for the S&P for this calendar year to 7900. His 8400 target would come sometime next year. But the rise in interest rates must stop first. The 30-year mortgage rate topped 7%. The US Treasury did as we explained they said they would do by buying $6 bln in 30-year T-Bonds in an attempt to squelch the upward pressure in the yield curve. The Treasury intervention did not immediately stop the bond market rally.  President Trump has been very vocal in this demand that the Fed reduce rates and…

09/17/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video One Storm Calmed for Now On the Grains Soymeal futures continued their recent surge overnight, rising to for-the-move highs. While soymeal isn’t to its contract highs, futures are trading at the highest levels since nearby contracts have been actively traded. The strength in meal supported soybeans. Corn traded on both sides of unchanged but are favoring the downside this morning as winter wheat markets have weakened. The bond market selling frenzy calmed after the Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday. Yields on 10-year Treasuries dropped below 5% after the first rate hike since July 2023 and indications there will be another increase by year-end. That calmed markets, though President Trump kept pressure on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh to lower rates, posting on Truth Social: Uncertainty about how far the Fed will raise interest rates to keep prices in check is likely to cause further volatility for ​bonds and the stock market. Sinograin To Auction Corn Reserves China state stockpiler Sinograin will offer imported GMO corn from reserves at a Sept. 18 auction, according to a notice posted on its official e-trading platform. The corn auction amount…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/16/2026 Record Demand Keeps Market Afloat – 2027 Fertilizer Is A Buy PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update While the September crop report was neutral to slightly bearish, it still leaves the door open for markets to move higher.  There are early reports of harvest beginning to advance and so we should have some early yield reports by the time the next WASDE report rolls around.  I know of one field of short season soybeans already cut in NW Iowa while mine still have a lot of green.  Adjustments can still be made to yield but September rains and cooler temperatures should mitigate additional losses.  We still think it is possible for soybean yield ideas to move higher due to this…but perhaps less so in corn.  A soybean yield of 53+ bpa is still possible.  Not that that appears to matter in the least to the trade.  The market is convinced additional crush demand and Chinese buying will offset yield gains.  So far, they have been proven right. A quick review of our historical corn demand demonstrates that it is at the…