Joshua Van Ryswyk

10/23/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat In Extended Daily, Weekly Losing Strings On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded narrowly around unchanged in rather directionless overnight price action. Corn and beans snapped their recent daily string of losses earlier this week – corn on Wednesday and soybeans on Thursday. Wheat is still trying to accomplish that feat. On a weekly basis, SRW wheat will finish lower for an eight straight week – the longest string for the most actively traded contract since 1997. Barring big rallies today, corn is poised for its fourth straight weekly decline and soybeans will end lower for a second straight week. USDA announced another 202,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China on Thursday, with the six-day total increasing to 1.950 MMT. More will be coming as China’s state-owned firms booked more cargoes on Thursday, as they are using the break to the lowest prices since late August to push toward finalizing the 25 MMT purchase commitment for 2026-27. Accounting for China’s export commitments through Oct. 15, sales to unknown destinations (much of which are to China) and the barrage of buying over the past week-plus, Beijing has purchased…

10/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Pause Awaiting Strong Demand Signal On the Grains: Corn and soybeans are mildly firmer early this morning, as markets are pausing following their recent sharp losses. Wheat futures struggled to find buyers overnight. Corn snapped its six-day string of declines on Wednesday. Soybeans and wheat are still trying to halt their string of price losses. Traders will look to export demand to signal prices have fallen far enough to attract strong global end-user buying. Until there’s a strong demand signal and/or some other reason that dries up fund selling, any strength will be purely corrective in nature. USDA reported another 114,000 MT of daily new-crop soybean sales to China on Wednesday, pushing the five-day total to nearly 1.75 MMT. USDA also announced daily soybean sales of 165,000 MT to Spain, which is more important, as it signals value buying by someone other than China. The market assumes China will buy its 25 MMT of soybeans and then be done. That means any export demand boost must come from other sources. Traders also want to see value buying show up for corn. There have only been two daily corn sales…

10/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Money Flow Will Determine When Lows Are In On the Grains: Mild corrective buying surfaced in corn, soybeans and wheat overnight as markets took a breather from the recent heavy price pressure. Unless funds return as active buyers, however, the upside is limited to corrective buying as corn and soybeans face ongoing seasonal pressure with harvest picking up steam and traders are uninspired by export demand. Money flow remains the most powerful price influence, so fund activity during daytime trade when they are far more active will indicate if the overnight strength turns into anything more than a modest correction. Over the past week, USDA has confirmed daily soybean sales of 1.472 MMT to China and another 780,450 MT to unknown destinations. Additional daily soybean sales are likely as China continued to shop for U.S. soybeans, though traders have repeatedly brushed that news aside, assuming Beijing will get to its 25 MMT commitment for 2026-27. Traders deem corn export demand as disappointing, with export commitments running 33% behind year-ago. However, that’s a short-sighted comparison since there were no soybeans flowing to China at this time last year and there were…

10/19/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds Need Reason to Flip Buy Switch Back On On the Grains Wheat markets firmed a little overnight, while corn and soybeans pivoted around unchanged in quiet trade. Fresh market-moving news remains limited, technical trade and money flow will be key during daytime trade to open the week. Traders brushed aside last week’s aggressive Chinese soybean purchases as harvest pressure, technical selling and money flow dominated price action. Key for the new week is whether funds remain in liquidation mode or return as buyers. They likely need a fundamental reason to flip on the buy switch. As of Oct. 13, funds liquidated more length across the grain and soy markets, reducing their net long position to 783,174 futures contracts and 757,717 futures and options positions. Two noteworthy developments. 1) The futures and options position was smaller than the futures only position. 2) The corn long position was smaller than soybeans for the reporting period. Of note: The reporting period didn’t include the final three days last week during which November soybeans fell 22 1/2 cents and December corn dropped 8 cents. Geopolitically, Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other…

10/16/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Breaking Down as China Buys More On the Grains: Soybeans mildly extended Thursday’s breakdown below the Oct. 9 low during overnight trade. Corn and wheat futures also traded lower overnight. Corn futures are still solidly above their Oct. 9 lows, while wheat markets are threatening a downside breakout from near-term support. Money is flowing out of the long side of the grain and soy markets. The pressure on soybeans is coming from a combination of seasonal pressure, chart-based selling and fund liquidation, despite aggressive Chinese buys this week. USDA has confirmed 800,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China over the past two days and more are coming. Bloomberg reports that China’s state-owned firms have booked at least 20 cargoes – around 1.3 MMT. What China hasn’t been buying is other agricultural goods, despite its May pledge to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. farm products beyond its existing soybean commitments. Chinese commercial firms are waiting on tariff rollbacks before making purchases. Farmers, exporters and traders are still waiting for a precise prorated 2026 target and a clear accounting of purchases credited toward the agreement. The U.S./China…

10/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Dollar Headwinds Ease Overnight, But Could Be Key Factor On the Grains Soybeans traded lower overnight, threatening a downside breakout below the Oct. 9 low. While that support was probed overnight, it failed to uncover fresh sell orders. Corn and winter wheat markets pivoted around unchanged in quiet overnight trade. An emerging headwind for grains is the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is lower overnight on a pullback from Wednesday’s runup to the highest level since April 2025, but is trading well above par, as the Fed is expected to further raise interest rates to combat inflation. U.S. consumer inflation for September came in hotter than expected on Wednesday. U.S. producer prices for September will be out at 7:30 a.m. CT. The dollar can be a “reason” for daily price movement in the grain markets, especially on days when fundamental news is limited. Importantly, the dollar could be a deciding factor in whether managed money accounts want to shed more of what was recently a record combined net long position in the grain and soy markets or resume their buying. The broader concern is tied to competitiveness on the global…

10/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Buys More U.S. Soybeans, Big Corn Purchases Unlikely On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight on support from Chinese demand news. Corn and wheat both favored the downside. Reuters reported Chinese state-owned firms purchased eight to 10 cargoes (roughly 520,000 to 650,000 MT) of U.S. soybeans this week. Export sources said most of the soybeans were booked for shipment from the PNW in January. Daily sales announcements will be watched for confirmation of the purchases. Meanwhile, an official with China’s state-owned Cofco says China’s corn production expanded as much as 8 MMT this year and that U.S. corn imports are not yet economically viable for commercial firms even with a reduced tariff rate. He expects China to import only 3.5 MMT of corn in 2026-27, which is 2.5 MMT less than the ag ministry forecasts, including less than 1 MMT of U.S. corn. As we’ve noted, there are other ag commodities that China needs more than corn that will get it to the $17 billion in purchases (will be prorated to an unspecified amount for this year) beyond soybeans. That doesn’t mean China won’t buy some U.S. corn, but large…

10/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bulls Need a Fresh Catalyst On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded lower overnight amid a lack of supportive news. With USDA’s October crop reports last Friday taking the bloom off the rose for bulls, a fresh bullish catalyst is needed to rebuild buyer interest across the grain and soy complex. Corn and soybean harvest activity is in full swing, adding seasonal headwinds to both markets. Scattered rains are expected during the next couple of days across areas of the Corn Belt, though harvest will remain active. USDA will update the corn and soybean harvest paces this afternoon. China’s Sinograin sold 209,904 MT of imported soybeans from an offering of 518,175 MT – a 40.51% clearance rate. The average transaction price was 4,298.43 yuan per MT ($642). With no tariff rollback for U.S. soybeans, commercial firms will use the state-owned reserves to bridge the gap until new-crop South American soybeans are ready for export. On Note: An official with China’s state-owned Cofco said fourth quarter soybean arrivals in China are expected to average 9.5 MMT, which would be up from 8.5 MMT last year and 7.7 MMT two years…

10/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds, End-Users Will Signal If Corn Is Value Buy On the Grains: Corn and wheat opened lower overnight but rebounded to trade above Friday’s closing levels early this morning. Soybeans opened firmer but faded, along with soymeal, and are trading lower. Money flow will be key to price action during daytime trade as funds become more active. Do funds view Friday’s sharp price breaks as a fresh buying opportunity or do they further liquidate long positions? Friday’s lows across the grain and soy markets stand as key near-term support that bulls must defend to keep from a deeper price pullback. Funds reduced some of their length across the grain and soy markets as of Oct. 6 but were still net long a combined 881,436 futures and options contracts. Note: That figure doesn’t include the final three days last week, including Friday’s heavy selling in the corn and wheat markets. Aside from money flow, harvest activity ramped up over the past week as drier conditions were seen in the western Corn Belt. Seasonal pressure will be a headwind as new-crop bushels come to market. Note: USDA will not update harvest activity…

10/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Don’t Expect Big October Yield Changes On the Grains Corn and soybeans have firmed early this morning, while wheat futures are narrowly mixed. All three markets are trading in broad holding patterns as traders await USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. Reaction to that data will determine price moves over the final two-plus hours of trade today – and could set the near-term price trend. Historical Look at USDA’s October Yield Changes There have only been two years each in which USDA has adjusted its October corn and soybean yield estimates up or down by a bushel or more. Recent history suggests major yield changes are unlikely this month. Corn Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 2 Past 10 years (2016-24): decreased 5 years; increased 5 5-year avg. (2020-24): -0.2 bu. = 178.3 10-year avg. (2016-24): no change = 178.5 5-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 10-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 5-year biggest increase: 0.2 bu. (2021, 2024) = 178.7 10-year biggest increase: 1.9 bu. (2019) = 180.4 Soybeans Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 1; unchanged…