Joshua Van Ryswyk

11/13/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Flashing Breakout Signs On the Grains Soybeans broke out above the top of the short-term consolidation area on the daily charts overnight, reaching the highest levels since mid-June. Corn futures are on the cusp of a similar breakout, though they favored the downside overnight. Wheat futures traded lower overnight. Funds are buying soybeans despite a lack of Chinese export demand activity. Brazilian soybeans remain cheaper for late fall/winter delivery when accounting for the 10% tariff difference, limiting Chinese firm’s willingness to buy U.S. supplies, despite the trade deal. Money flow is important, but the soybean market will need some bullish news soon to maintain upside momentum. Open For Business Again President Trump signed legislation to end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, marking the official conclusion to a 43-day impasse. He ordered furloughed employees to return to work today. However, it will take days or weeks for operations to return to “normal.” Some government data that was shelved during the shutdown will be released as timely as possible… some will never be released. Based on past shutdowns, USDA is expected to release export sales data for the six-week…

11/12/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Acknowledges Brazil Ag Deal; Still No U.S. Confirmation New Reco Day 3: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. The sell order was hit on Monday at $11.32. On the Grains Soybean futures firmed overnight, while the wheat markets weakened and corn was caught in the middle, pivoting around unchanged. Chinese state-owned food giant COFCO announced signing of agreements totaling more than $10 billion with the ABCD trading firms — ADM, Bunge, Cargill and Louis Dreyfus — to purchase soybeans, soybean oil and palm oil from Brazil. The contracts, inked during the China International Import Expo in Shanghai, cover nearly 20 MMT of commodities and underscore a deepening trade partnership between Beijing and Brasília. China still hasn’t publicly confirmed the recent agreement with the U.S., which the White House said included Beijing’s commitment to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by the end of this year and 25 MMT of supplies in each of the following three years. After reports of a handful of U.S. soybean cargoes sold to COFCO ahead of and after the trade deal between President Trump and…

11/11/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Key To U.S./China Trade Deal: VEU, Not Soybeans New Reco Day 2: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. The sell order was hit on Monday at $11.32. On the Grains Soybeans modestly pulled back overnight after rising to near the top of last week’s broad trading range on Monday. Corn and wheat pivoted around unchanged in a quiet overnight session. China plans to ease the flow of rare earths and other restricted materials to the U.S. by designing a system that will exclude companies with ties to the U.S. military while fast-tracking export approvals for other firms, keeping some of its export controls in place. The “validated end-user” system (VEU), would enable Chinese leader Xi Jinping to follow through on a pledge to President Trump to facilitate the export of such materials while ensuring that they don’t end up with U.S. military suppliers, people familiar with the situation told the Wall Street Journal. The VEU mechanism that Beijing is considering is modeled on U.S. laws and procedures. The U.S. VEU system has been in place since 2007. Under that system, certain Chinese…

11/10/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Risk Appetite Builds Amid Cautious Optimism New Reco Day 1: Make a 25% 2025 cash soybean sale in March contract at $11.30 or best price. On the Grains Global markets and grain futures showed cautious optimism overnight amid signs of thawing U.S./Chinese tensions and a procedural hurdle to end the record U.S. government shutdown. January soybeans traded near the middle of last week’s broad range during the overnight session. Corn and winter wheat markets rebounded from losses late last week. China rolled back tariffs on U.S. goods today, as part of the deal reached at the end of October between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. China also added 13 fentanyl precursors to a list of controlled exports to the U.S., Mexico and Canada, under commitments of the deal, imposing new export license requirements. The U.S. and China suspended port fees on each other’s ships for one year and paused probes into maritime practices, in another sign of easing tensions. The Senate voted 60-40 on a procedural measure to advance a bill to end the government shutdown, as seven Democrats and one Independent voted “yes” with Republicans, while Sen. Rand…

11/07/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Waiting On More Active Chinese Buying & Gov’t Shutdown To End On the Grains Soybeans and spring wheat futures firmed a little overnight, while the corn and winter wheat markets favored the downside. After Thursday’s hefty losses, all but spring wheat futures are working on losses for the week, though that could still change during daytime trade. The China demand front remains quiet to close out the week. Aside from a handful of cargoes (soybeans, wheat and sorghum), Chinese buyers have not rushed to purchase U.S. ag goods in the immediate aftermath of the trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinpinig. Aside from uncertainty about Chinese demand, Trump’s tariffs and the upcoming Supreme Court decision, along with the ongoing government shutdown continue to hang over markets. Regarding the shutdown, Senate Majority Leader John Thune told Senate Republicans Thursday that they should expect to vote on a new proposal today. That proposal would reportedly combine a short-term spending measure with a package of three full year funding bills, covering the legislative branch, agriculture, and military construction and veterans affairs. However, Democrats indicated they weren’t sold on the package. China’s Trade Activity Slumps…

11/06/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Traders Sell the Fact On the Grains Soybeans traded notably lower overnight, continuing the pattern of big price swings the three previous days. In typical fashion, corn followed soybeans. Wheat futures also weakened overnight, after a string of recent strong gains, in “buy the rumor, sell the fact” trade with Chinese purchases. China’s state-owned grain trader COFCO held a soybean procurement signing ceremony at the U.S./China Agricultural Trade Cooperation Forum in Shanghai, part of the China International Import Expo. No details on purchase volumes were released, though as I previously reported, talk ahead of the event said it could be up to 5 MMT. Beijing on Nov. 10 will suspend retaliatory tariffs on many U.S. ag imports, though U.S. soybeans will still face a 13% duty in addition to the 13% VAT that is charged for all soybean imports. Note: The key difference lies in import tariff — 3% for Brazil versus 13% for the U.S. (remaining fentanyl tariff). If Trump takes off the 10% remaining fentanyl tariff, then China would likely lower the soybean tariff by 10 percentage points leaving it at the 3% MFN rate. A soybean industry…

11/05/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Confirms Removal of Tariffs on U.S. Ag Goods On the Grains Soybean futures rallied overnight but didn’t take out highs from the two previous days. Price action remains volatile as traders try to sort out the China demand situation and relative fair value. Corn remains a follower, though price action hasn’t been nearly as volatile since there is no talk of China buying U.S. corn. Wheat modestly eased from its recent gains overnight.China confirmed it would end tariffs imposed March 4 on soybeans and other U.S. ag products including corn, wheat, sorghum and chicken. Beijing is also removing an additional 15% retaliatory levy on U.S. wheat. The ministry confirmed in a separate notice that the 24% tariff on all U.S. products will be suspended for a year. These changes take effect Nov. 10 and are in line with the fact sheet of the trade deal released over the weekend by the White House. A 13% VAT will still be charged for U.S. soybeans. Soybean Export Prices Matter With the one-year truce on soybean tariffs by China, daily export prices will largely determine whether Chinese buyers purchase Brazilian or U.S. supplies.…

11/04/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybean Buyers Pause to Catch Their Breath On the Grains Soybeans pulled back from their recent surge overnight, as there were no new private reports of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. Corn also weakened, while the wheat markets traded mostly higher, led by SRW contracts.StoneX Raises Corn Crop Estimate, Lowers Soybean Forecast StoneX forecasts corn production at 16.748 billion bu. on a yield of 186 bu. per acre. Those are up modestly from the firm’s estimates of 16.737 billion bu. and 185.9 bu. per acre in October.For soybeans, StoneX estimates production at 4.303 billion bu. on a yield of 53.6 bu. per acre. Those are down slightly from the firm’s estimates of 4.326 billion bu. and 53.9 bu. per acre in October. Due to the government shutdown, USDA did not release October crop estimates. In September, USDA estimated the corn crop at 16.814 billion bu. on a yield of 186.7 bu. per acre. It estimated the soybean crop at 4.301 billion bu. on a yield of 53.5 bu. per acre. Other private crop forecasts are scheduled to be released this week. Even if the government doesn’t reopen by then, USDA…

10/30/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Deal a Dud for Soybean Traders as Details Lacking New Reco Day 3: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in January 27 at $11 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 soybeans. Fill at $11.09. New Reco Day 3: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in December 26 @ $4.65 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 corn. Fill at $4.67. On the Grains Soybean futures reacted highly negatively to the U.S./China trade truce – with corn and wheat following to the downside – as implementation details were lacking. Of note: January soybeans have not entered the Oct. 27 chart gap, stopping 1/4 cent shy of that day’s low as of early this morning. President Trump said China would buy “tremendous amounts of U.S. soybeans and other ag products immediately.” He also wrote about “massive amounts of soybeans and sorghum” purchases. China's commerce ministry said it would expand agricultural trade with the U.S. but did not specify the scale or timing of purchases. Words like “tremendous” and “massive” are relative and subjective… traders wanted objective specifics. The deal might turn out to be…

10/29/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Makes Token Soybean Buys Ahead of Trump/Xi Meeting New Reco Day 2: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in January 27 at $11 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 soybeans. New Reco Day 2: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in December 26 @ $4.65 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 corn. On the Grains Soybeans pulled back from recent strong gains overnight. Corn and wheat futures pivoted around unchanged. China booked its first known cargoes of U.S. soybeans for 2025-26 ahead of Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump and Xi are expected to finalize a deal that will include “substantial” soybean purchases by China, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Reuters reported the pre-meeting purchases by China included three cargoes (~180,000 MT; 6.6 million bu.) secured by state-owned COFCO for December-January shipment. As I noted on Tuesday, China watchers suggest the eventual purchase volume for delivery in early 2026 could be around 10 MMT (367 million bu.), though other purchases would be likely within the framework of the deal. Reuters reported China could buy…