Joshua Van Ryswyk

Private groups and individuals have been issuing fresh yield predictions that factor in everything from farmer surveys and crop scouting to satellite imagery modeling. A general consensus has formed for expecting a lower corn yield on next week's report, although the trade is not clearly convinced that the national soybean yield estimate has any room to drop. Examining the state by state yield estimates, it is seemingly easier to cut corn yields for major producers like Illinois and Iowa than it is for soybean yields. Let's start with a look at the I-states. The USDA August estimates called for record Illinois yields of 225 bushels per acre for corn and 66 bushels per acre for soybeans. Results from Illinois are heavily weighted within the national yield averages since the state is expected to harvest the most soybean acres and the second most corn acres behind Iowa. Yields for Iowa have been at 209 bpa for corn and 61 for soybeans, with Indiana at 207 bpa corn and 62 for soybeans. For corn, lowering the Illinois average by six bushels per acre still leaves a state record but would cut about one bushel per acre from the national average. Taking just…

Fall Feeder Cattle, with the market within $3 of recent lows look to cover immediate purchasing needs at current prices.   Overnight action was very quiet as row crops push pause for a minute. We have had good action on the grains for a week now, the question remains will fund traders want to continue to lighten up on grain shorts ahead of next week’s USDA report? It sure feels like one of those Fridays where we lack conviction to do much of anything. Possible “daily” black swans might be lurking in today’s export sales numbers. Trade has fairly decent numbers dialed, without confirmation of those we will be setting the stage for give ups into the weekend, which feels unlikely at this time but possible. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Grain Setback is Healthy You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. https://youtu.be/S7kutYspRSI On the Grains Good morning as we round out this first week in September we have gained some optimism in corn and soybean prices. Since Frist Notice day lows, December corn has rallied 29 cents and November beans are up 60 cents. While what feels better, looking at the computer screen, it might not feel as good for producers in the northern belt that have watched crops go backwards. Wheat surely has been the driver as we have seen that rally almost 55 cents on the Chicago December contract, yet Paris Milling wheat has $10/mt to go yet before we hit major resistance, so is there more in the cards, I believe so. Ukraine drought conditions are expanding underpinning the market. We advised last week to put hedge orders in at $4.22 December and I would hold with that and the November Soybeans at $10.43. Cash basis, in the west, remains on fire with old crop pushes being paid west of I35 and good enough bids that are getting trucks moving…

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. Libyan Oil to Blame You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. https://youtu.be/ngYRJZyYDqw On the Grains Good Wednesday morning. Yesterday’s impressive run across the board was most likely funds covering after the three day weekend. The funds, USDA, and every other market analyst can tell them what they want to hear, that the soybean crop is just fine, yet large swaths have gone backwards with the limited rain.  Several Northeast Iowa farmers I talked to yesterday said that the bean crop, planted early, hoping to avoid the dryness, had small bb like beans and he was estimating harvest in just three weeks. If the Export market wants them they better get them now while the producers are convinced that the crop is made and before the combines roll. Currently, the U.S. is the place to grocery shop running a 50-60 cent discount to South America. Which brings us to the next point- USDA and CONAB are still a zip code apart on last year’s yields. While, there is nothing saying that they have to matchup, we’re selling beans cheaper than them. The truest form…

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. Beef Prices Tumble You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good morning and good riddance to the 23/24 marketing year. We turn the page into September and the start of harvest. Long perceived fears of basis pricing and DP pricing vs the September came and went while managing to pull the Sep/Dec spread in two cents, currently sitting at 22 cents. Why did this happen and not flush the September board like the March and July contracts did? First off, some end-users still are needing coverage to get to the fall harvest and especially in areas that have production concerns. Secondly, we have seen spot export sales that will need to be covered yet this month as well and last but not least, many DP (delayed pricing contracts) are set to expire the middle of October end-users/elevators basis is the widest giving them as cheap of ownership possible. What do we have to look forward to this harvest, while if you are sitting in an area that is tributary to the Mississippi River and the export system we have, yet…

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. Cash Cattle, Drought Monitor, and Grain Technicals You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. New Corn Reco Day 3:  Adjust December corn sell offers of 10% from July 26th from $4.25 down to $4.22. New Soybean Reco Day 3:  Adjust 10% November sell orders to $10.43 or $10.61 January for producers that plan on putting beans in storage. On the Grains Overnight action is a touch better on row crops as we round out the last trading day of August. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t surprised to see the board higher yesterday and this morning ahead of First Notice Day. Most of the pricing and rolling has taken place as we only have about 7,000 contracts of September corn and just shy of 2,000 beans left to deal with. While there is little doubt in any trader's mind we have a crop, the question remains how large of a crop? A large swath of the upper Midwest needs some rain to finish the crop off. A client in NE Iowa has reported to me that he has had just over 3 inches…

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. China Absent You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. New Corn Reco Day 2:  Adjust December corn sell offers of 10% from July 26th from $4.25 down to $4.22. New Soybean Reco Day 2:  Adjust 10% November sell orders to $10.43 or $10.61 January for producers that plan on putting beans in storage. On the Grains Good morning, limited news overnight as we start the day off. Export sales start the morning and should provide direction to finish up the week. Flash sales yesterday were a good start but the market continues to look for more volume. Taking a look at the ethanol report released yesterday, with one week left in the marketing year, it appears that the USDA’s ethanol usage number will be adjust higher by 20-30 million to 5.47-5.48 billion bushels. While it’s not a huge number it is something positive. We still have yet to put harvest pressure on the board, we’re starting to get tidbits of positive news. Crumbs at best. We didn’t get to this carryout/price overnight and we won’t get out of it that quickly either, especially this late in…

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! The capital of Brazil is currently covered in a smoky fog originating from forest fires.  Forest fires in Brazil are fairly common this time of year as the dry season drags on.  Many fires are started from natural causes but some are from illegal deforestation.  They historically take place further north where there is more forest cover.  What is unusual this year is that there are a higher number of fires in the South, specifically in the state of Sao Paulo in the heart of the sugarcane production area.  Dozens of cities have been put on alert and some roads have been shut down.  One sugarcane production company reported 50,000 acres were burnt.  Another sugar mill was shut down for a couple of days as fire encroached upon their facility, but they have already returned to work.  This has sent sugar prices rallying 150 points since last Friday.  Analysts agree that while there will be some damage from fire, the yield loss from dry weather is much greater.  Brazil is the largest sugar producer and exporter by far, supplying 70% of the global sugar market.  Oddly enough, they used…

On the Grains  Yesterday’s price action was rather surprising ahead of First Notice Day. If we can get two days in a row of a close in December corn over 390 it would be very supportive of the market. The phones were busy yesterday with a lot of the same questions, should I price or roll my September basis contacts? Let’s take a look.  This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here

Cash Cattle and a Look at the Softs You can click the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Crop conditions came in as expected yesterday with corn at 65% G/E down just 2% from last week but up 9% from last year. While make no mistake, there is plenty of good corn, I started getting phone calls from clients that need a rain as where they planted in the wet spots are starting to show up. Moving over to soybeans 64% are rated G/E down 4% from last week and up 6% from last year. December corn grids lower this morning, down a penny at 4:30 am and while soybeans had an impressive day yesterday they’re giving back 2 cents this morning. Crop conditions will be less of the focus moving forward as traders feel confident that the crop is made. Yesterday’s sharp run-up in crude oil was attributed to tentions in the in the middle east, however OPEC+, who typically addresses production plans at the start of the new month, continue to battle production cuts amid Chineese demand concerns. However, Libya released statements yesterday moirning stating that they were shutting all oilfields down…