Joshua Van Ryswyk

02/09/2026 Soyoil Responds To India Trade Deal; Did China Buy Beans? Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded lower overnight, while soyoil found support from the interim trade framework between India and the United States. For U.S. agriculture, the deal provides measured entry into India’s market, especially for value-added and feed products. India agreed to cut or eliminate import duties on U.S. ag products, including soyoil, dried distillers’ grains (DDGs), red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, wine and spirits and additional products. India held firm on sectors considered economically and politically sensitive: Dairy — a long-standing red line due to livelihood concerns for millions of small producers; staple grains and pulses tied to food security programs; and broad resistance to large-scale market opening in basic farm commodities. India did not open broad access for U.S. corn, which is politically sensitive and tied to domestic price supports and food programs. However, the DDGs concession by New Delhi opens indirect access for U.S. corn. China Shopping for U.S. Soybeans China was reportedly seeking bids for U.S. soybeans on Friday, with some saying…

02/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Big Gov’t Payments Won’t Stop Mounting Farm Stress On the Grains After trading lower initially overnight, soybeans have firmed this morning, pushing to new weekly highs. Corn is mildly lower, while wheat markets are narrowly mixed. For the week, soybeans are sharply higher, corn is slightly higher and wheat markets are lower. USDA’s first look at 2026 farm income shows U.S. net farm income dipping to $153.4 billion, down 0.7% from a sharply revised $154.5 billion for 2025 — and dramatically lower than the $179.8 billion USDA projected for 2025 just last September. That $25.3 billion downgrade to 2025 fundamentally resets the sector’s trajectory heading into 2026. Net cash farm income tells a slightly different story. It is forecast at $158.5 billion in 2026, up from $153.9 billion in 2025 — but that 2025 number itself reflects a nearly $27 billion cut from the September outlook. Cash receipts for crops are expected to rise modestly to $240.8 billion in 2026, while total animal receipts are projected to drop sharply to $273.9 billion, with lower prices for milk and eggs driving much of the decline. Direct government payments are forecast at $44.34 billion, up sharply from $30.54 billion in 2025. The main…

02/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Triggers Euphoria in Soybean Market On the Grains Soybeans sharply extended Wednesday’s surge during overnight trade but remained well below yesterday’s highs. Corn and wheat are trading around a penny higher early this morning, pulled begrudgingly higher by the strength in soybeans. Volatility remained elevated in commodities overnight, with pressure on the Bloomberg Commodity Index driven by sharp losses in silver. Crude oil also declined as Iran confirmed it would hold negotiations with the U.S. in Oman on Friday. The U.S. dollar index continued its rebound from the late-January plunge to the lowest level since February 2022. President Trump’s Truth Social post on Wednesday following a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping triggered a bullish response in the soybean market. Trump said he encouraged Xi to have China purchase more U.S. ag goods, including increasing 2025-26 soybean buys to 20 MMT. He also reiterated that China has committed to buy 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans for 2026-27. Whether China buys the soybeans at levels Trump referenced remains to be seen, as there was no confirmation from Xi (or any other Chinese official), but the soybean market has aggressively…

02/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Drift Aimlessly Lower On the Grains Corn, soybeans and SRW wheat pulled back from Tuesday’s gains during overnight trade, while HRW and HRS wheat remained under pressure. The U.S. dollar index is firmer, as are most metals and energy markets. Kansas reported winter wheat conditions improved one percentage point to 61% good/excellent during January, though that’s still down nine points from last fall. Winter wheat conditions in some other states will be released by USDA later this morning. On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine started another round of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Iran has asked the U.S. to move diplomatic talks originally planned for Turkey to Oman and to limit the agenda to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Tehran is resisting U.S. pressure to include its ballistic-missile program and support for allied militias in the Middle East in the negotiations. On Tuesday, a U.S. jet shot down an Iranian drone after it “aggressively approached” the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Breakdown Of Proposals For 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit The Treasury Department and IRS released a notice of proposed rulemaking laying out detailed…

02/03/2026 Soyoil Boosted By U.S./India Trade Deal, Despite Lacking Details Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video today. On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight amid a sharp rise in soy oil futures. Corn and SRW wheat modestly followed to the upside, while the two other wheat markets mildly favored the downside. Gold and silver posted strong gains, while energy markets and the U.S. dollar stabilized after Monday’s strong moves. The U.S. and India reached a trade agreement on Monday, lowering tariffs on Indian goods. President Trump is also removing the extra 25% duty on Indian goods he applied in response to India’s purchases of crude from Russia. In total, the moves will reduce the overall duties on many Indian goods from 50% to 18%. India will reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the U.S. to zero, while agreeing to purchase $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. While specific details of the ag purchases were lacking, soyoil is expected to be a potential big winner. India is the world’s largest importer of edible oils and soyoil could account for a larger share under the new trade deal. However, details of the deal will be…

02/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Weaker Amid Broad Commodities Selloff On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat extended their losses from late last week during the overnight session as part of the broader selloff in the commodity sector. While gold and silver futures have rebounded from their earlier lows, energy markets remain under heavy pressure. Meanwhile, global stocks faced heavy pressure overnight, while the U.S. dollar index firmed. Market volatility is heightened to open the week and the new month. Iran Tensions Ease Iran said talks with the U.S. over a new nuclear deal could get underway in coming days, building on a flurry of diplomatic activity aimed at averting war between the two sides. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered the start of negotiations with Washington “within the framework of the nuclear issue,” Iran’s semi-official Fars news service reported. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said on state TV, “We’re ready for diplomacy, but they must understand that diplomacy is not compatible with threats, intimidation or pressure. We will remain steadfast on this path and hope to see its results soon.” Brazil Focus Turns to Dry Southern Areas Brazil’s soybean harvest reached 10% as of Jan. 29,…

01/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitical Tension Heighten – Again On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat extended Wednesday’s gains during the overnight session. SRW wheat futures pushed above yesterday’s highs, while corn and soybeans remained below those levels. Crude oil firmed more than $1, while gold and silver rose to new highs amid heightened geopolitical tensions. President Trump warned Iran to make a deal on nuclear weapons, or the next U.S. attack would be far worse. “Hopefully Iran will quickly ‘Come to the Table’ and negotiate a fair and equitable deal - NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS - one that is good for all parties,” Trump wrote. Tehran responded with a threat to strike back against the United States, Israel and those who support them. Iran’s foreign minister said the country’s armed forces “are prepared - with their fingers on the trigger - to immediately and powerfully respond to ANY aggression.” But he also said, “Iran has always welcomed a mutually beneficial, fair and equitable NUCLEAR DEAL - on equal footing, and free from coercion, threats, and intimidation - which ensures Iran’s rights to PEACEFUL nuclear technology and guarantees NO NUCLEAR WEAPONS.” Expectations For Export Sales…

01/28/2026 Screwed Again and Again but we Vote for them Anyway PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The US House passed a spending bill that did not include either additional farm aid or nationwide year-around E-15. I was not surprised about the lack of additional aid payments. While representatives of both parties proposed competing additional spending proposals, the powers that be oppose it. We get our $12 bln bridge aid and there will be farm program ARC/PLC payments coming later in October. That will be all that we can count on. However, it is an election year so they still may try to buy votes with additional aid, but it will likely come later in the year on their time schedule rather than when it is needed. The AFBF did a good job of explaining that there are substantive uncovered losses in all crops by these payments, but farmers are likely going to have to eat them. Some argue that if the government covers all of the losses, then the market doesn’t work.  Low prices signal overproduction and a need to reduce acres. That will not happen if losses from low…

01/28/2026 Trump Pledges Year-Round E15 Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical issues. On the Grains Soybeans led overnight gains and are around a dime higher early this morning, extending to the highest levels since late December. Corn and wheat also strengthened during overnight trade. President Trump used an appearance Tuesday in Clive, Iowa (suburb of Des Moines), to declare that the U.S. has staged “the most dramatic one-year turnaround of any country in history,” while making an explicit play to lock down a politically pivotal biofuels promise: year-round E15. Trump said he had held off on announcing the move until he could do it “in person” in Iowa, and told the crowd he is “trusting Speaker Mike Johnson… and Leader John Thune” to broker a deal that works for “farmers, consumers and refiners, including small and mid-sized refineries.” His wording mattered. Trump did not describe an immediate executive action; instead, he noted a path through Congress — and his own role as the closer who will sign the bill. He suggested the timeline would be fast, saying a bill would reach his desk “very quickly” and that he would sign…

01/27/2026 The ICE Man Cometh for Livestock Producers PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Feed costs are favorable, but a number of major challenges are contributing to cost inflation in the pork and other livestock industries. We all know that hog barns, feedlots, and dairies use a strong component of undocumented immigrants in their labor force. Super-charged Immigration enforcement is no longer a potential threat that is coming…ICE is here and it is having an impact on the labor force used by livestock producers in this region. Workers are gone…disappeared. For example, ICE was reportedly waiting outside the school in Sibley Iowa for the parents to come pick up their kids so they could move on them. Many other cities and counties are reporting visits by ICE with one report of ICE visiting a county jail which is actually where they ought to be checking (Cerro Gordo County). They had none…just American criminals. That is dominantly the case. Hog producers tell me that workers they typically hired to wash barns are gone. Regular employees are absent and replacements are nowhere to be found. There is a critical labor shortage in livestock barns developing in…