Joshua Van Ryswyk

08/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Pause to Catch Their Breath On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat pulled back a little overnight as markets paused to catch their breath after a week of strong gains. Key today will continue to be money flow, specially whether funds see the overnight weakness as a buying opportunity and continue to chase the long side of the market. Day 4 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Better Corn Yields but Still Lacking Pro Farmer released results from Day 4 of Crop Tour for Iowa and Minnesota on Thursday evening. Iowa: Ear counts were down versus year-ago and the three-year average… so was grain length. That led to a yield of 194.0 that was well under year-ago but up from the three-year average. The eastern side of the state was expected to pull up the average from what was found in western Iowa… and it did – just not as much as anticipated. On average, Crop Tour is historically 7.4 bu. too low in Iowa. If you add that historical miss to this year’s yield, it signals a 201.4 bu. per acre yield – well below USDA’s August estimate of 216…

08/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video $5 Corn Returns On the Grains: December corn futures rose to $5 overnight for the first time since May 19 and bulls have the May high at $5.06 1/2 in their sights. November soybeans are within 15 cents of the July high at $12.56 1/2. Those respective highs will be key tests for the strength of the latest wave of fund buying. While some suggest markets are trying to ration use amid falling supply expectations, spreads tell a different story. The conflicting message suggests this is little more than a money flow game. Wheat futures have seen buyer interest build through the overnight session and are now solidly higher early this morning. December SRW futures pushed to their highest price since July 24. That day’s contract high at $7.28 1/4 stands as a key test for bulls; it’s currently about 25 cents away. Day 3 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Better Corn but Still Disappointing Pro Farmer released results from Day 3 of Crop Tour for Illinois and the western three crop districts in Iowa (1,4 and 7) on Wednesday evening. Illinois: The trend of disappointing ear counts was broken –…

08/19/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Money Chasing Long Soybeans Again On the Grains: Soybeans rallied sharply overnight but haven’t taken out Tuesday’s intraday highs yet. If that happens, a new wave of buying could be unveiled. Aside from Crop Tour results, traders are monitoring Chinese demand as USDA announced another daily new-crop sale of two cargoes on Tuesday. The question now becomes will Chinese buying continue with November futures back well above $12? Remember… China’s state-owned firms don’t care nearly as much about price as commercial firms. Soybeans being purchased now are going into state reserves and will be auctioned at a later date – a year or more from now. What seems pricey now may be cheap when the soybeans are eventually sold onto the Chinese domestic market down the road. Of course, the flip could be the case, too. Corn futures are modestly higher this morning, following soybeans. Wheat markets are mostly lower, though SRW contracts are trying to firm. Day 2 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Rinse and Repeat from Day 1 Pro Farmer released results from Day 2 of Crop Tour for Indiana and Nebraska on Tuesday evening. It was basically…

08/18/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Adding More Risk Premium On the Grains Soybeans led a round of price strength in the grain and soy markets overnight, with the November contract pushing to the highest since July 27. December corn futures reached their highest since May 20. Both were boosted by a drop in crop condition ratings and Day 1 results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Today, traders will get reports and images from fields in Indiana and Nebraska, with results of those states released tonight. The stakes are getting higher as Crop Tour pushes into the bigger producing states. Wheat traders continue to monitor the Black Sea situation. There’s not much new news on that front. Attacks between Ukraine and Russia is ongoing and grain export capacity has been compromised. Whether its crop- or geopolitical-based, traders are adding risk premiums to grain and soy futures. Day 1 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Produces Some Surprises… And Varied Conditions Pro Farmer released results from Day 1 of Crop Tour for South Dakota and Ohio on Monday evening. South Dakota featured rapidly maturing crops and impacts from heat and moisture stress earlier in the growing season.…

08/17/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crop Damage, Yield Potential Assessments Start Today On the Grains Corn and soybean futures built on last week’s strong gains overnight amid crop concerns. The assessment of damage from last week’s storms and yield potential will a focal point as Pro Farmer Crop Tour samples fields across seven Corn Belt states this week (see “Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below for details and insider insights). Winter wheat markets pulled back from last week’s strong gains, despite ongoing Black Sea attacks.Forecasts call for seasonal to slightly below-normal temperatures and rainfall chances this week, though they won’t be nearly as heavy rains seen across from eastern Nebraska through Ohio last week. The two-week forecast indicates slightly elevated temps and near-normal rainfall for most of the Corn Belt. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will remain a focal point. USDA has announced daily new-crop soybean sales for four straight days as China’s state-owned firms continue to make goodwill purchases ahead of President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping in Washington in late September. Meanwhile, Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin will auction another 361,728 MT of state-owned soybeans procured from 2022 to 2025 – mostly 2022 –…

08/14/2026 US Wealth Disparity after 250 Years-Where it Goes from Here PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 If Americans voted strictly according to their wealth status, socialist candidates would sweep elections and the GOP would get put out to pasture. Some GOP worry about the US demographic is well on its way to becoming a minority majority which leans heaviest to Democrats. The wealthy know what the risk is in the pitchforks eventually coming for them. This is why the wealthy power structure, yet in control, wants to federalize the election process and remove limits from election spending so they can hold this wave of “communists” back. Democracy becomes a threat to the billionaires. It gives context to the purpose of the “Save America Act”. They are thinking long term, which is why they want to end birthright citizenship. Elon Musk injects $250 mln into the election process, which to ‘a trillionaire’, is chump change. The Supreme Court knocked the spigot clear off the barrel from which dollars flow into the election system meaning contributions are becoming unlimited. 80% of the voting public has no financial means to fund…

08/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video On Again, Off Again… Rinse and Repeat On the Grains: The wheat market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines amid the heightened attacks in the Black Sea region. Wheat jumped double digits early this morning as Russia reportedly rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, which ironically is what triggered a sharp fall from Thursday’s intra-day highs. Moscow also dismissed the idea of returning to the old Black Sea grain export agreement. The price tone is higher overnight, but it’s been highly choppy and sideways for nearly the past six months.Corn and soybeans are also higher overnight. Their greater focus is weather, potential crop size and demand. Not surprisingly, their price trends have also been highly choppy and sideways since late winter/early spring. All three markets are being driven by a set of highly volatile factors that can change rather rapidly, causing sentiment to shift. The result has been back-and-forth trade – money flow in, money flow out… rinse and repeat. Corn Belt Deluge, Extreme Conditions Continue An intense week of weather continues this morning, with another wave of heavy rains pushing through the corridor from…

08/13/2026 The Beer in Brazil Just Keeps getting Cheaper PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When we first brought US famers to tour Brazil in the early 2000’s a bottle of Skol cost a single Real. A dollar was worth about 1.5 Real at the time so $2US would buy 3 Brazilian beers. US Farmers liked Brazilian beer and they liked the exchange rate. Americans could empty the contents of an upright cooler full of beer overnight and feel like it was free. By the time that we had invested in Brazil the Real had climbed to near 3 Reais to the dollar in anticipation of the socialist Lula de Silva becoming president. It was buy-the-rumor of THE SOCIALIST Silva becoming president followed by selling-the-fact after he was elected. Lula did not turn out to be as inflationary and disruptive as the currency markets had anticipated. In fact, quite the opposite happened. The Brazilian economy grew. Frankly, Lula brought social stability to Brazil that all classes of Brazilians benefited from given their extreme economic disparity. At the time you could look down on favelas from the Hilton as classes, the wealthy…

08/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Back to the Grind On the Grains: The euphoric price rise on Wednesday wore off overnight. Corn failed to find follow through buying, while soybeans and wheat pivoted around unchanged. Wheat is showing a little strength this morning as Russia struck Ukraine's largest Danube grain shipment port overnight. But a surge in buyer interest in wheat will be tied to a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies – something that hasn’t been seen yet and USDA didn’t account for in its updated balance sheet (see below). Overnight price action signals it’s back to the grind for corn, soybeans and wheat as futures grind within their broad summer trading ranges. Key takeaways from USDA’s Aug. 12 Reports Yields: USDA’s initial yields came in below trendline for both corn and soybeans. Over the past 10 years, USDA has lowered yield from August to January for both in seven years by an average of 1.0 bu. for corn and 0.6 bu. for soybeans. History favors reductions in the months ahead, though August rains give crops plenty of moisture to finish, especially soybeans. Keep in mind, a large part of the August…

08/12/2026 Geopolitics, Derecho and USDA… Oh My! Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical difficulties. On the Grains Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drone strikes pounded three of Russia's large grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk, causing two of them to temporarily halt operations as they assess damage. While traders added risk premium overnight, futures remain in a choppy range as there hasn’t been a significant pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies. Corn and soybeans strengthened overnight ahead of USDA’s August crop reports at 11 a.m. CT, which will feature the first survey-based estimates of both crops. However, those estimates were finalized ahead of Tuesday’s derecho event that caused crop damage from eastern Iowa through the southeastern Corn Belt. There are chances for additional adverse weather for the next couple of days. Danage assessments will take several days – and even then, won’t be fully known until harvest is complete. Using the August 2020 derecho as a blueprint – even if the damage isn’t the same – USDA lowered corn yield, harvested acres and production significantly from August to final. The U.S. corn supply situation could change…