Joshua Van Ryswyk

10/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video No Immediate Chinese Ag Buys from Trade Deal On the Grains: Corn and soybeans traded lower overnight and are poised for sharp weekly losses after downside breakouts from their month-long sideways ranges. So far, buyers have surfaced around the $5 mark for December corn and around $12.75 for November soybeans. That must remain the case to avoid deeper price losses going into the weekend. Amid a host of other factors, money flow will remain the key price driver for corn and soybeans. for Wheat markets are trying to work higher on light corrective buying early this morning but are sharply lower for the week. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said there is no timetable for implementing proposed tariff reductions with China, underscoring the unfinished work behind one of the principal economic announcements from last week’s trade meeting. He said implementing the U.S./China Board of Trade’s recommendations would require public input, a comment process and a legal determination on whether to adopt them. That’s consistent with China’s comments and suggests the tariff rollbacks will take time. Agriculture has a substantial stake. China’s proposed list includes U.S. corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, cotton, beef,…

10/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Ball In Funds’ Court On the Grains: Grain and soy futures traded in relatively tight ranges overnight as markets paused following Wednesday’s reaction to USDA’s reports. Corn and wheat futures are trying to recoup a little of Wednesday’s sharp losses early this morning. Soybeans are mildly favoring the downside. With the flip of the calendar to a new month and new quarter, attention will be squarely on money flow and fund positioning. Corn and wheat broke down technically, while soybeans are holding above their late-September lows. USDA added 173 million bu. to the new-crop corn balance sheet with the Sept. 1 stocks figure, which is beginning stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year. That’s the equivalent of about 2 bu. per acre of yield that would have to be trimmed without any changes to the demand side of the balance sheet. Corn ending stocks are still down from last year, but there’s a little more cushion now. Soybeans have a little less cushion, though projected ending stocks for 2026-27 still wouldn’t be tight. Wheat continues to face a demand problem, despite disruptions in the Black Sea. The question is whether funds…

09/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Sept. 1 Stocks Have History of Surprises On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher for most of the overnight session and are near their highs early this morning as traders await USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary at 11 a.m. CT. November soybeans have climbed back into the month-long sideways range after Monday’s downside breakout attempt. December corn futures are trying to climb back into the month-long sideways range. Wheat markets are rebounding from their drop to the lowest levels since mid-August. The Grain Stocks Report has a history of big market moves, especially for corn, as traders have broadly missed with their pre-report expectations. Sept. 1 stocks will likely trigger the market reaction. Over the past 10 years, Sept. 1 corn stocks were below expectations seven times, with an average miss of 52 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate. The range of misses was huge at 314 million bu. below expectations to 195 million bu. above expectations, with five of the 10 years being more than 100 million bu. above or below the average pre-report estimate. For soybeans, Sept. 1 stocks were below…

09/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Dust Settles, Another Potential Storm Approaches On the Grains: Corn and soybeans pivoted around unchanged as futures paused following recent price pressure that resulted in downside breakouts from month-long sideways ranges for both markets. Bulls must defend support at last Friday’s lows for corn and Monday’s lows for soybeans to avoid further fund long liquidation. Wheat markets extended their price drops from the early September highs, led by HRW contracts. Traders will begin squaring positions ahead of Wednesday’s USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Annual Small Grains Summary. The Grain Stocks Report has a history of surprises and major market moves. Traders are also waiting to see further details from last week’s trade deal with China, including the size and scope of tariff reductions, resolution of other access barriers, the proration date/level for 2026 purchases and actual Chinese demand. USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report will set final 2025-26 ending stocks for corn and soybeans. Both are expected to be trimmed slightly from the September WASDE Report, with the average pre-report estimate at 1.918 billion bu. (down 4 million bu.) for corn and 324 million bu. (down 1 million bu.) for…

09/28/2026 Devilish Details; Soybeans Excluded from China Tariff Exemptions On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures traded lower overnight, led by sharp losses in the soybean market as details emerged from last week’s trade meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Soybeans fell to the bottom of the month-long sideways trading range. Corn and wheat followed soybeans lower, though both remained well above last Friday’s intra-day lows. As is always the case in these trade meetings, the devil is in the details. China’s newly released list of U.S. products eligible for consideration for lower tariffs includes corn, sorghum, wheat, rice, cotton, beef, pork, poultry, dairy products, ethanol and vegetable oils and meal, including soyoil and soymeal. Soybeans for planting are also included, but non-seed soybeans — the category covering bulk shipments for crushing and food use — are absent. This doesn’t mean China won’t buy U.S. soybeans, but the extra 10% tariff on U.S. cargoes will remain, keeping a hurdle in place for purchases by Chinese commercial firms. There was no explanation for why soybeans were omitted, though it gives Beijing leverage in ongoing negotiations. Another key omission: distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) are not listed under…