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02/06/2025 Eggs Making Headlines

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Good morning. Rangebound is the theme for today’s trade. March corn continues to rally but fails against the $5.00 level. This is the fourth time in the last seven trading days that the nearby corn contract hits $4.97 or better and runs out of steam. Yesterday’s flash sales to South Korea (330,000 MT for 25/26) and excellent EIA ethanol report weren’t enough to bust out of the overhead resistance. Ethanol production currently is running at about 7% in January over January higher. If we do see some exports slip, the grind would offset some of that demand. How much we offset while that depends on how many exports are canceled. Many people have talked about Mexico’s frontloading exports. While some of that may be true, they did have a drought of biblical proportions, and I would guess that it’s possible that they cancel some, but it is highly likely it will be all and that they will need to lift the vast majority of what is on the books. I will continue to sell nearby corn against the $5.00 level until proven wrong.   This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/05/2025 Safrinha Corn Needs To Get Planted Now

By The Commstock Report
Safrinha Corn Needs To Get Planted Now Tariffs are the focal point this week with Brazil’s pending harvest taking a back seat. As I write this President Trump is set to meet with President Xi of China. The market seems to be expecting a favorable outcome, looking for China to extend an olive branch much like Mexico and Canada. So far it has been working. Neither Canada nor Mexico wished to test Trump’s resolve which will likely lead to further threats of tariffs anytime a country falls out of line with the United States. As the tariffs have only been put on a 30 day pause, we have not seen the end of this story yet. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/05/2025 Eggs Making Headlines

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Good morning, subscribers. We will try to avoid the tariff talk as much as possible, that story has been run, and only time will tell what China elects to do. President Xi Jinping and President Trump did not have their scheduled phone call yesterday, and the White House gave no reason why this was canceled. The original trade deal that China signed was for significant Ag purchases, which China has continued to fall short of reaching. I would suspect President Trump will push to at least get that covered, yet China has been courting Brazil since that deal was signed, making any large announcement or new deal with China a wait-and-see storyline.  This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/04/2025 Is this MapQuest?

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains I often see reels on Facebook making fun of my generation’s use of printed maps and directions before the GPS became affordable. Yet here we are. It feels like I am young and have a full head of hair again, looking at outdated printed directions before the ink is dry (do not ruin it, I am drafting the story, so it is my vision, you too can have hair and be skinny if you so choose in my story). Back to the regularly scheduled program. Are we tariffing or not? That is the question of the hour and a fluid situation. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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02/03/2025 Movies and Markets

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains One cannot help but draw comparisons between movies and markets. For example, the 90’s hit Home Alone when Kevin is in the basement, and the furnace kicks on, making a loud noise and scaring him, and he runs upstairs yelling. Yet the next time, he looks at it and says I am okay, which does not scare him. Well, that is like tariffs and markets. Except the funds are Kevin, and the furnace that makes the loud noise is tariffs. How everything plays out between Mexico, Canada, and the United States, nobody knows just for sure, but it is enough of a caution to send the funds hitting the pay window and moving to the sidelines. In fact, on world trade, it is starting to feel like we are home alone. We did gap lower on the overnight March corn. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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01/31/2025 Annual Cattle Inventory, 25% Tariff

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Yet again, export corn sales, were at the top end of the expectations, with sales of 53.5 million bushels (MBU). While down slightly from last week’s 65.4 MBU. Total commitments are now at 1.704 billion bushels, up 29% vs the previous year. I know we said after December and the January crop report that we might run the risk of falling short on USDA projections for sales, it appears now if we match last year’s Feb-March sales, the 2.450 might be too low. Our balance of the year, if we can match that Feb-March of last year, only needs to be 20 BMU vs last year’s 28 MBU. Any sort of hiccup in Brazil’s production could easily put us over that. Looking back at the reports from August of last year, we talked about our contacts in Brazil, saying that the domestic demand is grossly underestimated. This same company was in our office in August and predicted a 180 to 181 national yield, at that time, everybody was at 183 to 184. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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01/30/2025 Money Flow, Stress Test

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Overnight markets were slightly weaker after yesterday’s impressive rally across the board. Yesterday’s move can be credited to two things: first money flow, and second the weather in South America. Forecasters continue to have 11–15-day models having rains, which will continue to inhibit harvest progress and second crop planting progress. It seems kind of early to be worried about second-crop corn just yet. However, the world stocks available to use, minus China, are tight, so there are probably reasons to be at least concerned. Now throw in Argentina, which continues to be hot and dry. Once the train leaves the station, the money follows. All eyes are on the front month, March corn, as it tries to take out the $5.00 resistance levels. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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01/29/2025 All Markets Top, When is the Question?

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Overnight markets were slightly higher last night. Don’t look now, but we may have a wheat move upon us. Wheat finally reversed its trajectory and snapped a streak of four lower sessions. We mentioned yesterday that we felt like wheat needed to make a move if we wanted corn and beans to play along, while here we are. Paris Milling Wheat was up last night and that has spilled over into the U.S. markets. It’s a matter of whether this move can extend itself. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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01/28/2025 Passing Logic, Many Dollars Ago

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Yesterday, we held support for the March corn, which we mentioned in the morning report, a good sign for corn. Also, we did see a USDA flash sale of corn to Mexico of 139,000 MT. Until we can get a wheat move, corn looks to be range bound. Russian wheat has slowly crept its way higher in the international markets, yet Paris Milling wheat put a low in yesterday. What gives? We know the Russian crop went into the ground in rough shape and most likely won’t improve, yet the US futures refuse to do anything with that news. Since that story has some traction, back at the start of October, futures have fallen from $6.03 down to $5.36 vs the Chicago contract. The funds are still short, and it appears that they are not in any hurry to cover. I know hardly anybody who is reading this report grows much wheat, but without a move to cover those shorts, corn is going to have limited upside. It’s possible that the funds will decide to cover some of those shorts when the US crop comes out of dormancy, but that’s down the road. This content is for…
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01/27/2025 Weather Markets, Cattle on Feed, and Colombia

By The Commstock Report
On the Grains Let’s get it started, we talk about the shift in acres. While the spread favors corn (2.27), we must still put fertilizer on, which is likely the main stopping point. This last rally in corn allowed 2024 producers to become slightly profitable and bankers to look at cash flows and feel a little more comfortable with 2025 plans- even if that does include more corn acres. This content is for members only.Register Already a member? Log in here
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