Joshua Van Ryswyk

11/13/2026 Bearish Stretch Snapped, Price Recovery Underway Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video due to technical issues.On the Grains: Grain and soy markets traded higher overnight, led by double-digit gains in soybeans and the winter wheat markets. Soybeans have pushed to new weekly highs, while corn and wheat are still well below highs posted earlier this week. Markets are poised to snap their extended weekly losing streaks that have persisted for 10 weeks for wheat, six for corn and four for soybeans. In the aftermath of USDA’s tightening of the U.S. soybean and corn balance sheets earlier this week, demand is in greater focus. USDA announced daily soybean sales of 136,000 MT to China on Thursday and there’s chatter or more buying by China’s state-owned firms. Additional comments by China’s commerce ministry yesterday suggest China will push toward its commitment on non-soybeans agricultural purchases once tariffs are rolled back, which it encouraged as soon as possible. The clamoring for the tariff rollback to happen as soon as possible suggests the buying will be from commercial firms and not just state-owned companies. Wheat is a likely commodity China will purchase as there appears to be…

11/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Just Need No Bearish Surprise to Start Price Recovery On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets traded higher on light corrective buying overnight as traders await USDA’s November crop reports at 11 a.m. CT. After last month’s shocking jump in corn yield and production estimates, there’s some trepidation ahead of the reports. But after two-plus months of heavy fund selling and price pressure, anything shy of a bearish surprise in the data could be all that’s needed for corn and soybeans to secure seasonal lows and start a price recovery. Traders are also monitoring the peace talks in Abu Dhabi between the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. As the first peace talks got underway, Russia attacked energy infrastructure in eight Ukrainian regions, raising concerns about Moscow’s commitment and sincerity to the peace talks. Following are pre-report expectations from a Reuters survey of analysts. Note: There continues to be a huge range of nearly 10 bu. for corn yield. If you throw out the two outliers, the range tightens to 2 bu. and the average estimate would increase to 180.6 bu. per acre, which is the median estimate.…

11/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds’ Least Bullish Grain/Soy Position Since June On the Grains: Corn and soybean futures mildly favored the upside overnight. Wheat markets struggled to find buyers overnight, though they held above last week’s lows. The key market event this week will be USDA’s November crop reports on Tuesday. Typically by November most of the focus has started shifting from U.S. crop size and yield to demand – and South American production. After the shocking corn yield increase in October, however, there’s a level of supply uncertainty ahead of USDA’s Nov. 10 reports. Note: Funds will go into the reports with their least bullish stance in months, with the combined net long in grain and soy markets down to just 205,332 futures contracts; only 156,761 for futures and options combined. Funds have built a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. They were still long 8,795 corn futures, though it was a net short of 22,900 contracts when including options. That’s the first net short stance in corn since June. They remained long the soy complex, though that positions have been dramatically reduced. Following are pre-report expectations from a Reuters survey…

11/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Extend Weekly String of Losses Awaiting Bullish Catalyst On the Grains: Wheat futures declined overnight, with the winter wheat markets marking for-the-move lows. Wheat markets have declined for 10 straight weeks. Corn and soybeans pivoted quietly around unchanged. Corn futures have declined for six straight weeks, while the string of losses will be four for soybeans. While price action and market attitudes are dour, traders may cover some short positions ahead of the weekend as they start to square positions ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA November crop reports. The search continues for a bullish catalyst that’s needed to put in lows and start working higher. Aside from pre-report positioning, grain traders will be looking for further value buying by global end-users. Thursday’s weekly export sales data showed signs that is picking up, as have daily sales announcements, though more is needed to convince traders prices are low enough. There’s also more attention on Brazilian weather with conditions expected to start trending warmer and drier in central Brazil, along with northern production areas that are already facing those conditions. Outside market focus will be on the stock market after volatile…

11/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Tide May Be Turning On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher amid corrective buying overnight. Meal futures also firmed on corrective buying, while soyoil extended its price slide. A test of the overnight strength will come during daytime trade when funds, who have been active sellers since early September, will be more active. Funds have amassed a sizable short position in the wheat markets, while they’ve gotten out of their length in corn and shed most of their long positions in soybeans and meal. Sentiment is highly bearish and the boat is leaning heavily in one direction. This is very similar to what happened with funds in June as they piled into the short side of grain and soy markets before flipping to aggressive buyers and eventually building a record combined net long position in grain and soy markets in early September. Bottoming action in June lasted for weeks and required a bullish catalyst – weather – to flip the switch from sell to buy for funds. There’s no guarantee the pattern will repeat itself, but there are definitely some similarities. Weather could again be a bullish catalyst,…

11/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Blue Wave for Elections, Red Wave for Grains On the Grains: Democrats captured control of the Senate and House as a blue wave surged across the country during Tuesday’s midterm elections. Democrats flipped Senate seats in Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina and numerous seats in the House. Global markets responded with stocks rallying, while bond yields and the U.S. dollar retreated.Meanwhile, the red wave of price losses continued in the grain markets. Soybeans plunged to their lowest level since mid-August, with the January contract probing $12. December corn futures extended to the lowest level since July 1, probing the $4.40 level. Wheat markets made for-the-move lows before modestly rebounding from those levels. The latest fundamental headwinds are coming from the StoneX yield estimates, which pegged corn at 183.1 bu. and soybeans at 55.0 bu. per acre this month. The StoneX production forecasts are 16.203 billion bu. for corn and 4.725 billion bu. for soybeans. If StoneX is correct, that's more bushels that need to be chewed through via increased demand. The way to encourage more usage is through lower prices. Regarding Tuesday’s elections, Washington policy…

11/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Value Buying Confirmed; Corn Market Wants More Proof On the Grains Corn and wheat futures mildly favored the downside overnight, while soybeans traded slightly higher amid modest corrective buying. The general marketplace remains cautious awaiting results of today’s midterm elections. December corn futures dropped to a for-the-move low, despite the ninth largest daily sale on record of 1.730 MMT to Mexico on Monday – 1.135 MMT for 2026-27 and 594,630 MT for 2027-28. While that signaled the top buyer of U.S. corn sees value on the sharp price break, traders apparently want more proof. USDA reported soybean crush slowed more than anticipated to 198.8 million bu. in September. That was down 5.2% from August and 3.0% from year-ago, though the slowdown was due to crush plants not having enough supplies, not a lack of demand. September corn-for-ethanol use totaled 438.4 million bu., down 8.5% from the previous month but up 0.6% from last year. Harvest delays in the western and northern Corn Belt limited new-crop corn deliveries to ethanol plants. Corn Harvest Remains Behind, Soybean Harvest Stays Ahead USDA reported corn harvest advanced 16 percentage points to 74%, though that…

10/29/2026 Bulls Searching for Anything to Stem the Tide Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning market talk this morning. On the Grains: Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight after closing at a new for-the-move low on Wednesday. January futures touched their lowest level since Aug. 19 overnight. The next band of support starts at the May high of $12.25 1/4. Corn and wheat markets pivoted narrowly around unchanged overnight, while holding above their recent lows. Grain and soy markets remain in liquidation mode as bulls seek something to stem the tide. The data point of interest today will be export sales for the week ended Oct. 22. Soybean sales will be big due to daily sales to China during the reporting week. Traders will focus on soybean demand aside from China – and unknown destinations, which are assumed to be China. Corn sales are expected to top 1 MMT. Traders are looking for signs from global end-users that prices have fallen to value levels. Corn export sales are lagging, especially to top buyer Mexico. For wheat, major Black Sea shipping disruptions haven’t translated into increased demand for U.S. supplies, with export commitments running well behind year-ago and…

10/28/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Footing Difficult to Find on Slippery Slope On the Grains: Soybeans and corn showed mild price strength overnight as both markets try to stabilize from the recent sharp price slides. Winter wheat markets are also trying to firm amid corrective buying. Fresh news is limited, leaving technicals and money flow to direct price action. Both have been extremely bearish, with technicals eroding as funds continue to actively sell. January soybeans continue to pivot around the 100-day moving average, currently at $12.46. A bounce from that level is needed before there are any signs of a short-term low. Monday’s low at $12.39 stands as near-term support. Failure at that level would open the downside to the psychological $12 mark and 200-day moving average just below it. December corn futures are pivoting around $4.50 and trading well below the short-, intermediate- and long-term moving averages. The first hurdle for bulls is the 5-day moving average around $4.54. For perspective on the persistence of the sharp downtrend, December corn hasn’t closed above the 5-day moving average since Oct. 7. There’s a broad band of support from $4.49 1/2 to the contract low of…

10/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video The Real(ity) Of the Soybean Market On the Grains Soybean futures firmed overnight amid corrective buying after bouncing from a spike of the 100-day moving average on Monday. Corn futures traded modestly lower overnight, while wheat markets favored the downside aside from nearby SRW contracts. Brazil’s currency rate has moved to the leading focal point for soybean traders. After a plunge on Monday, soybean traders will monitor the Brazilian real. Overseas trading overnight showed the Brazilian real/U.S. dollar easing from Monday’s sharp price action. While the exchange rate isn’t likely to influence China’s soybean buying decisions, it will influence other global end-users for soybeans and other commodities. Soybean Harvest Surges Above Average; Corn Still Lagging Soybean harvest advanced 15 percentage points to 79%, two points ahead of average. Corn harvest increased 16 points to 60%, though that was still six points behind average. Note: Due to the government shutdown, there’s no year-ago comparison and the average paces continue to reflect 2021-2024. Seasonal pressure should begin to ease for soybeans as harvest moves into the final phases. Corn harvest pressure will persist as on-farm storage fills up and extra bushels move…