CommStock Reports

Grains look to follow through on a firmer close from Friday, with war in the Middle East and bullishness over biofuel news being the top inputs. Upside may be limited by a favorable weather forecast. In the Headlines Back and forth missile attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Israel's strikes against Iran's nuclear assets rallied crude oil futures by nearly $5 on Friday. The U.S. government is taking a measured approach as President Trump urges Iran to accept a nuclear deal. Soybean oil futures were locked limit up for most of the Friday session in response to the government's announcement of higher than expected renewable fuel volume obligations. A substantial increase of the biomass-based diesel fuel target contributed to the total biofuel blending requirement rising from 22.33 billion gallons this year to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held this week with the central bank making a decision on interest rates Wednesday afternoon. Market odds are showing an expectation for the fed funds rate to stay unchanged at 4.5 percent. The White House is reportedly scaling back on immigration raids for hotels, restaurants, farms, and meatpacking plants. President Trump posted on social media that "our great farmers and people in the hotel and leisure business have been stating that our very aggressive policy on immigration is taking very good, long-time workers away from them...we must protect our farmers, but get the criminals out of the USA." Trader Positions Money managers were net-sellers of about ...

This morning's CommStock Report teed up the day's major market inputs involving growing conflict in the Middle East and anticipation for biofuel policy decisions. Both items continued to dominate trading through the last session of the week and here is where we stand heading into the weekend. Israel's attack on Iran put the focus on energy markets while grain traders were already paying attention because of the government's announcement of biofuel blending volumes being scheduled for today. A rally for crude oil futures that reached over $5 per barrel coincided with bean oil futures being up the daily trading limit. There looks to be no doubt that Israel's military operations will continue over the weekend, leaving the question of Iran's response and the degree of U.S. involvement to determine how markets will look when they open again Sunday night. There will also be further digestion of the new biofuel requirements and renewed positioning for what is next regarding the 45Z clean fuel credits being considered within the Congressional budget.   The biofuel back and forth has involved another round of trying to determine which news source is right, Reuters or Bloomberg. The Reuters vs. Bloomberg discrepancy was previously on display at the end of last year when Reuters reported that the Biden administration would be releasing guidance on the 45Z credit, but Bloomberg sources seemed to refute the Reuters report. In the end, neither were entirely correct in that Biden did release guidance, but not with any inclusion of the actual program ...

On the Grains The good old days of margin calls, before the ACH stuff, when it was “checks in the mail” waiting for the market to turn (go ahead and laugh if you have heard or used that one). Israel just sent one to Iran overnight, and you can bet your tail that Iran will cash it. Israel claims that it struck dozens of targets in Iran amid nuclear tensions, which Secretary of State Marco Rubio says the US was not involved in. Yet, after the news, crude oil futures jumped—almost $4.00 to $71 per barrel, as much as 20% of the world's crude travels through the Strait of Hormuz. Israel has declared a state of emergency, anticipating a drone and missile attack in retaliation. According to the Israelis, Iran was within days of having enough material to make 15 nuclear bombs. I would guess that the US-Iranian talks scheduled for Sunday in Oman will be canceled. More on that below.

Historical Footnote: It is lamentable about how the only thing bipartisan these days is the politicization of everything. This weekend the nation commemorates the 250th anniversary of the creation of the US Army. There will be a military parade in DC. My late-father served with the 4rth Infantry Division in Germany in 1952-53 so did not see me until I was one year old. His uniform hangs in my closet. Ironically, CommStock Chief Broker, Eric Relph's son Ethan, serves with the 4th Infantry Division today and has been stationed in Germany/Poland and before that South Korea. He is in a unit of Bradley Fighting Vehicles that is participating in the parade later this week. I am going to focus on what the US Army, my father and Ethan have done and are doing for us. I Thank Them for Their Service!   Livestock Producers Take Note! The Livestock Markets are on Thin ICE! Earlier this week ICE immigration authorities raided the Glenn Valley Foods poultry plant in Omaha NE reportedly taking dozens of workers into custody. Protests developed. The next day the Nebraska Rural Radio Livestock market podcast said that worker absenteeism in other plants was 25%. Will these raids widen in scope? President Trump has promised to deport 1 mln illegal immigrants per year, 3000 per day, and there is $66 bln in the Big Beautiful Budget Bill to provide the resources for ICE to tap into. Homeland Security head Noem wants to allow military personnel to make arrests. Closing the border and deporting actual criminals ...

On the Grains In memory of Brian Wilson, the chief songwriter of the Beach Boys, who passed away yesterday, we’re thinking of “Good Vibrations” ahead of today's USDA report. For younger readers, The Beach Boys were a popular band long before color photos were invented. For those who remember him, you are welcome, the rest of the day, you will be humming “I’m thinking of good vibrations” as we attempt to get some positive news from this USDA report. The key item will be what the USDA does with exports. I have been in the grain business for 21 years now, and it feels like 18 years have passed since exports have been monitored this closely. The first order of business today will be the weekly export sales. Estimates are for corn to be 700-1400 KMT, compared to last week's 1102 KMT and the previous week's 582 KMT. Soybean estimates are 100-600 KMT, compared to last week's 197 KMT and two weeks ago, 178 KMT.

PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Driving through Central and Western Iowa last week it was easy to see that crops as a whole are off to a great start. (Knock on wood) If I could choose one word to describe them, it would be: consistent. Crops looked consistently even across fields and regions where one plant on one side of the field was of identical height and development to any plant on the other side. Of course, we have a long way to go, and this crop has yet to be tested. Snodgrass says risk of Corn Belt drought has dropped 15% (originally at 60%), moving us away from a broader moisture deficiency. The 15-day weather anomaly shows that above average rains through the month of June are fairly widespread. Longer term forecasts through July still suggest a drying pattern in the Western Corn Belt. This week, the European model looks for more rain in the Northern Grain Belt and Southern Grain Belt of 1" – 3", keeping those regions wet. It is important to note that the GFS is much less generous, showing zero precipitation precisely where the European model provides 3". Time will tell which forecast is correct. They do seem to agree that there is a dry path running through Southern Iowa and Central Illinois that sees little precipitation this week. Most of these regions have been well watered until now and so we don't see any immediate concern. Figure 1: One Week Rainfall Forecast Rainfall accumulation in the Central ...

On the Grains During those perfect weekend mornings on the lakes in Minnesota, I have often thrown a rock into the glassy water. The size of the ripple is proportional to the size of the rock I throw. Currently, the ICE raids are a significant issue, the extent of which is yet to be determined, but could be substantial, affecting not only livestock production but also the demand for grains in the upcoming months if this problem is not resolved, which does not appear likely at this time. This is not only a livestock issue but also a concern for construction, hospitality, and many other businesses in the long term. I’m not here to talk policy, just report the news, more on the ICE raids later.

On the Grains Yesterday’s planting progress showed that we are currently 97% planted on corn and 90% planted on soybeans, representing a 4% and 6% increase, respectively. The real question is, what happens to the 3% unplanted? The bulk of that is in Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. Tennessee must get planted; we can’t have the distilleries running out of product—talk about riots. Will those acres be turned in as prevented-plant corn acres? Only time will tell. Yesterday, fund liquidation began in wheat and has since moved to corn. A major wire service is now predicting that the crop will be 50% silking by July 15th. While the math may come to that, it's hard to believe when temperatures have been in the 50s at night—great sleeping weather but poor corn-growing weather. The forecast is for nationwide Growing Degree Days (GDD) to accumulate at a rate of 94-110% of normal. Good to excellent ratings increased 2% to 71% nationally, down slightly from last year's 74%. Take Iowa (+12%), Minnesota (+3%), Missouri (+6%), and Wisconsin (+5%) out of the mix, it's hard to find a state that grows meaningful corn acres that is better than last year. I would not get bullish on those numbers, if you want to get bullish, it has to be on the acres left to plant, the crop condition ratings are nothing more than a talking point at this time. December corn must hold support at $4.34, or this could be a long summer.

I think that any betting man would have given odds that "The Big Beautiful Budget Bill" would have somehow worked its way through the Senate's gauntlet and reconciliation with the House to become law later this summer…but now, given the association of Elon Musk with opposition to the bill, that outcome is even more assured. Musk's opposition, leading to his fallout with the president, will actually cause some to not oppose the bill so aggressively who otherwise may have done so. The opposition has now become a personal offense to president Trump that he can link to Elon and there are now many republicans that will cower.   What is wrong with the bill? It is very regressive but that is not my focus. Primarily it is that it will increase the debt $5 trillion over the next decade instead of the $2.4 trillion touted because the tax cuts in this bill sunset in 4 years when we all know that, just like with the 2017 tax cuts, they will be extended. Then there are the unexpected events that are actually expected but that are difficult to incorporate into the forecast that will impact the debt. Interest rates may be higher…when is there not a recession, another pandemic...how about a war? Or something really unexpected that we have not thought of? The US economy has been resilient enough to absorb all of the curve balls thrown at it but one result that is lasting is the size that the debt has become ...

New Recco Day 3: Cover 20% of new crop buying short-dated September $4.40 puts at 20 cents or better.  This would take total new crop coverage to 50%. Planting is nearing completion and has been planted in optimal conditions.  The short-term weather outlook is favorable. It provides coverage through late August, getting us through the June acreage report and the bulk of the critical growing season.  Contact your broker about potentially selling calls to reduce costs. Filled on 6/5/2025 at 16 ½ cents. Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Quiet Start to the Week You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains The Big Short was a 2015 movie based on Michael Lewis's book, The Big Short: Inside the Doomsday Machine. While based on the events of the subprime mortgage debacle, it focused on investors who saw the impending collapse of the housing market and profited significantly. The Commitment of Traders report contains some interesting data on how funds are currently betting. For example, the funds were sellers of 54,283 corn contracts, putting them net short 154,043. In the housing market, a few bet against the herd mentality and won. Yet, in grains, the herd is betting that the crop is already harvested, which it is not, so it remains to be seen who will win. However, the interesting dynamic is that demand is as robust as we can project, and the funds are still short, now it's about the supply. The USDA will release the S/D report ...

Grains look toward a firmer open in follow up from a positive finish on Friday. Possible disruptions could come from any major changes in the situation with President Trump deploying the National Guard as immigration policy protests erupt in Los Angeles. Traders will otherwise have some optimism over the trade meeting with China. Positions will be prepared for the Thursday crop report. In the Headlines Trade negotiations with China resume on Monday with a meeting in London. The U.S. side will include the Treasury Secretary, Commerce Secretary, and the Trade Representative Ambassador, with China represented by its Vice Premier. This group was previously reported to have reached an impasse, but talks were advanced by a phone call between President Trump and Xi Jingping last week. Trump indicated that the phone call included Xi's assurance that imports of rare earth materials and magnets could continue. It was another record week for the cattle market last week, with futures working up toward fresh all-time highs in the cash trade again. Monday opens up the delivery period for June live cattle futures, which still have the rest of the month to converge with the price. Cash deals jumped by as much as $10 last week, toward $246 in the North while trade in the South surged up to $235. June cattle futures settled at $226.30 on Friday with the next up August at $218.87. A type of antelope known as the 'saiga' were causing problems for farmers in Russia after 500,000 of them entered into one of ...

Livestock producers are facing ongoing challenges with disease prevention and the triple threat posed for poultry, hogs, and cattle from avian influenza, porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), and the New World Screwworm. The latest outbreaks have been felt by meat prices responding to a poultry import ban against Brazil, lowered hog production estimates for the U.S., and the resumed suspension of cattle imports from Mexico.   Reacting most dramatically to the screwworm headlines have been feeder cattle futures, which were almost limit lower at one point last month when traders were picking up on rumors about the pest being discovered on U.S. soil (Missouri). Cattle futures rebounded quickly following a statement from the USDA clarifying that there have been no confirmed or suspected screwworm cases identified in the country. USDA has estimated that more than 60 percent of U.S. cattle imports come from Mexico, amounting to about 1.25 million head per year in 2023 and 2024.   The screwworm is a fly larvae that digs into an animal's flesh and causes deadly wounds. A case of screwworm infection in a southern Mexico cattle herd led to the USDA closing the border to livestock imports in November. After a few months of resumed trade, the border was recently closed off to livestock again in response to a case detected only about 700 miles away from Texas.   Vulnerabilities to having the screwworm arrive in the U.S. take the forms of infected cattle possibly bringing the parasite in or having the screwworm fly arrive on its own. ...

On the Grains The International Trade Report showed that the US trade deficit in April decreased by 55% from March to $61.6 billion. This marked the smallest trade deficit in 19 months. While some of that was expected, as companies had front-loaded imports ahead of the tariffs. China still accounted for a deficit of $19.7 billion, more on that below. The drop in the trade deficit in April has led economists to expect a boost to second-quarter GDP. However, caution is warranted as unemployment applications unexpectedly rose last week to the highest since October.  

And they thought that Howard Hughes was eccentric. He was the first really wealthy American icon. Remember the Spruce Goose? They made a movie, The Aviator, about him starring Leonardo DiCaprio. Hughes was a genius with idiosyncrasies that collimated in obsessive/compulsive disorder. Wonder how long it will take until they make a movie about Elon Musk? Will it be as interesting? Musk has his idiosyncrasies, some of which should make his investors/partners obsessive/compulsive. He is Brilliant in some ways and absolutely clueless in others. His eccentricity has to do with the expanded number of his progeny produced with a plethora of partners and some alleged degree of chemical stimulants so that he can be everywhere doing everything all of the time. He has more fires going than any human can possibly have enough irons to poke into. He has managed to become known as the richest man in the world but that depends on the market. He has lost a lot of money in a lot of things but the winners outweigh the losers so he has been able to afford the losses. There is a lot of personal indulgence in some adventures such as in X.   Musk got into politics, using his money to buy influence. I have no idea about his overall motivation but one thing that I think that he is honest about is that he fears that the US is going to go broke, which would be a problem for him and his ventures…and he would like ...

On the Grains Good morning. Let’s get right to it. Yesterday, we observed the weekly EIA numbers, which were supportive of corn, as the ethanol grind jumped to 1.105 million barrels per day (MBPD). This figure was well ahead of expectations, the highest in 11 weeks, and 3.1% above last year's same week. With the crushing report behind us, showing that more Milo has made its way into the grind and ethanol yields are increasing, we now need to average +2.0% above last year's levels to meet the USDA estimates. While it would be preferable not to need to see an increase in the balance of the year, 2.0% certainly isn’t beyond the realm of possibilities. Even if we lose slightly, say 1%, that will amount to 55 million bushels of corn, which we have already easily sold in the export market. Ethanol stocks rose last week to 24.44 million barrels, which is up 6% from last year. Gasoline demand fell 7.6% vs the previous year's same week, while the demand over the last 4 weeks has been down 3.1%. Ethanol exports were excellent this week at 150,000 barrels, up from 66,000 barrels last week and 91,000 on the 3-week average. Bottom line, while we do need to see an increase in domestic usage, we are close enough not to be too concerned that we won’t make the USDA’s projected 5.5-billion-bushel estimate. Notably, gasoline demand has declined after the Memorial Day weekend, potentially indicating that consumers are slowing down their spending. ...

I am pretty sure I just won a free steak dinner.  I was bet that December corn would rally back to at least $4.70 by the end of July.  I much rather prefer the $4.70 corn.  But when someone offers you a free steak dinner - you take it.  We have to face the music that there is limited news for the bulls to chew on.  Tariff talk with China has stalled as they did not take well the news of increasing steel tariffs combined with singling out Chinese students at US universities by having their visas revoked.  Managed money is still net short 103,000 contracts going into last week and that has continued to work in their favor.  Bulls would argue that they will take their profits and run.  When have you known managed money to be so altruistic?  My bet is they will continue to stick with their winning hand.  We will also get another acreage report the end of the month will I am expecting will see added corn acres and reduced soybeans acres.  The market will likely have that digested by the release of the report, and so if those increase in acres do not materialize, I imagine that could provide some relief.   Bulls want to point out that demand continues to impress.  While this is true, all good things must come to an end.  Corn exports are seasonal as Brazil was out of corn the first six months of the year and Ukraine is not reliable ...

On the Grains We often do not spend much time on wheat other than noting it as a competitor to corn on the world-feed grain platforms. However, yesterday was all about Ukraine going after the Crimea Bridge, trying to take that out and disrupting Russian shipments. About one-third of all Russian wheat travels under that bridge to access the export market, and if that bridge collapses, it could cause some extended shipping delays. Now, had that gone down, a couple of secondary effects could have taken place. The first is that buyers would be forced to source wheat from elsewhere, the second is that Russia could retaliate and attack the Port of Odessa, thereby closing shipping from that location as well. The bridge is also a landmark project for Putin and would likely give him the green light to escalate the war. However, the attack was unsuccessful, and the channel is expected to be reopened today or early tomorrow. Now, moving to domestic wheat, reports are starting to pour in about the amount of rust that has started in the lower portion of the United States. Depending on how far along the rust is and how much additional rain falls, we could see losses ranging from 5% to 80%. Funds continue to sell wheat as if there is nothing to worry about, time will tell. If that story continues to develop, we may finally get our wheat headline to propel corn out of the range we have been trapped in.    

Prior to WWI becoming a world war, there were smaller conflicts in Europe that were on-going as pretenses for what became the big one, as other nations were drawn into it. It was the competition between two rival peer powers, England then dominant and Germany the challenger, that grew into military conflict and expanded to include colonies. I guess that the US could be construed as one of those drawn in. There were three regional wars going on before WWII. Japan had invaded Manchuria/China, Italy sought an empire in Africa and Germany annexed Austria, Czechoslovakia, and eventually invaded Poland. The latter was the trigger that pulled England and France into the conflict like leaves falling into a fire. Japan, Italy and Germany became allies as the Axis powers. Japan attacked us and the rest is history. All were rising powers competing for peer dominance. Technological advancement determined the winner of WWII and the dominant American hegemony that followed.   Today we have two regional wars going with a third waiting in the wings. The war in Ukraine looks far from settled. Russia is declining as a global power both economically and demographically against NATO which was strengthened by the addition of Finland and Sweden. The second regional war is Iran and its proxies who are at war with Israel. While Israel is becoming more dominant as Iran becomes more isolated, there is no final resolution but there may be a temporary one possible. President Trump has moved the Arabs and Egyptians closer ...

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Rain Makes Grain You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains The Planting Progress report, released yesterday, indicates that the US corn crop is 93% planted, with approximately 7.1 million acres remaining. While that may seem like a lot of acres—especially if those are your acres left to be planted, it’s hard to imagine not getting most of them planted, whatever the “bulk” of that may end up being at the end of June. With the Eastern Corn Belt continuing to be the problematic area, we could see a better-than-expected export basis this fall if those sales eventually come to the US. Currently, Argentina's FOB offers for corn are running about 13 cents higher than those in the Gulf. While Brazil has just started exporting corn, it remains priced out of the game, noted yesterday at a 6-cent premium to the Gulf, for now. From July to December, Brazilian corn is offered at levels below those in the Gulf, and the only factor that could change this is if the crop in SAM somehow decreases in size between now and then, which seems unlikely at this point, as many agencies have increased their expectations over the last week. From here on out, it’s about the crop ratings, which we will point out have very little correlation to final yield until pollination. This week’s ratings came in at 69% G/E, which was up 1% from last ...

It is not US drought that is currently costing us acres and yield but flooding in the Delta region. States including TN, KY, AR, MO, and MS are most impacted. None of them are major corn growing states. In the case of MO, the northern part of the state, where most of that states corn is grown is dry. There will be some prevent plant from this flooding but the crops impacted will more likely be rice, cotton and some soybeans. None of these markets has acted much like they care if acreage is lost. The cotton industry is in dire financial straits, so much so that prevent plant will generate more revenue for farmers than planting the crop.   Another of Dr. Elwynn Taylor's observations was that the moisture conditions seen in the Mississippi Delta region often portend what moisture that we will see in the corn-belt later. That is because the air pushed up from the Gulf by the Bermuda high into the US heartland travels over the Delta region to get here. If it is dry there, the air we get carries less moisture. When it is wet, such as it is now in AR, with some historical flooding and standing lakes, that air that comes our way will have more moisture in it. Other things such as the positioning of the Bermuda high can impact this. If the Bermuda high is in position and not wandering then it should push moisture our way. AI says. "The Bermuda High ...

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Macro Commodities Trying to Help You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good Monday morning! Let’s get right to it. Over the weekend, President Trump ramped up the tone of his talks directed at China, claiming that they have violated trade deals. Which violation and which deal remain unknown, but what is clear is that China didn’t uphold their end of the deal from Trump 1.0, so what makes us think they will suddenly do what they say now? The risk-on, risk-off equity trade seems to be getting tired. While Gold is up $55, the stock market is down, but not nearly as significantly as it has been in the past couple of months on these same type of announcements from the White House. DOW futures are down 156 while NASDAQ is off 150. The weather forecast predicts widespread rain across the Midwest, taking some weather premium out of the market overnight. What will be planted after the spring prevent-plant dates remains to be seen, but if the forecast holds, we expect to lose some acres in the Ohio Valley. Export sales last week were nothing spectacular for soybeans or corn. Soybeans came in at 5.4 MBU, down from the previous week's 11.4 MBU and yet still inline on the balance of year (BOY) required to meet USDA’s 1.85-billion-bushel export program.  While I acknowledge that the board is lower this morning, the trade tension with ...

Still much could change this afternoon, but the grains otherwise look set to follow through on last week with slightly softer corn and soybean futures, but firmer wheat. In the Headlines Weekend trade developments included President Trump announcing that steel and aluminum tariffs would be raised from 25 to 50 percent on June 4th. Trump visited U.S. Steel in Pittsburgh, a company that looks closer to being merged with Japan's Nippon Steel. It was suggested that Japan would be allowed to make a major investment in U.S. Steel but not permitted to fully acquire the company. Grain markets were already reeling heading into the weekend after reports of an impasse in trade negotiations with China. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated that China was not removing any of the non-tariff trade barriers as promised last month in Geneva. On Friday morning, President Trump posted that China "HAS TOTALLY VIOLATED ITS AGREEMENT WITH US. So much for being Mr. NICE GUY!" U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F Kennedy Jr released a report last week that advanced his fight against ultra-processed foods, seed oils, herbicides and pesticides, and fluoride. Many were quick to call out the report for referencing fake citations, which is a known problem for writers that use artificial intelligence. Kennedy's Make America Healthy Again movement stands as a possible source of future disruption for food and Agricultural policies. This week will be watched for more developments regarding biofuel policy. The Department of Energy last week released an update for the 45Z emissions scoring ...

Commodity trading funds have flipped their holdings in corn futures and options to net-short for the first time since October. The net-short of more than 100,000 contracts formed from a net-long in early February that reached 364,000 contracts. Commercial hedgers have simultaneously closed out of a substantial net-short position that was built on farmers selling more aggressively when prices were higher in the winter and again in early April. The combination of speculative liquidation and commercial buyers having a lack of need for immediate coverage has weighed heavily on the old-crop contracts.   Speculators have also attempted to front run the seasonal downtrend that is known to usually occur at the start of summer.   Seasonal history shows corn and soybean futures most often making highs in June, although the top came in May last year. This year's highs were made in February and the lower trend from there has now negated the seasonal price strength normally counted on during the spring. Summers usually see grain prices sliding lower as comfort rises about crop production potential. Still, there is some precedence for prices to rise counter seasonally in June and July. Consider the factors that sparked summer rallies in past years and what it would take for a bullish turnaround this summer.   For grain prices to reverse higher, the move would likely have to coincide with commodity trading funds shifting their sentiment back to bullish. There are several of the last 25 years that feature a contra-seasonal flip of the fund positions from short to ...

On the Grains New demand or additional demand doesn’t matter to me, but yesterday we saw flash sales of 104,000 MT of corn to Mexico and 101,096 MT to an unknown destination, both for the old crop. Export sales released today, a day late due to the holiday, are expected to be between 800,000 and 1.600 MT. Traders will react to each week's reports from now on regarding the adjustments the USDA needs to make based on exports. Soybean sales are estimated at 150,000 to 700,000 MT, likely skewed toward the lower end of that range. Again, it's no surprise that soybean exports are declining as Argentina continues to offer beans at prices we can’t compete with (63 cents/bu cheaper), which is typical for this time of year. US Gulf corn was quoted yesterday at six cents per bushel more than the most affordable competitor, Argentina, but still holds a six-cent advantage over Brazil, keeping us in the game yet.

While the US wants to stop illegal immigrants, fentanyl and drugs from being trafficked across both our northern and southern border, Mexico and Canada would like to stop gun trafficking. Guns appear to be the backhaul commodity that Cartels bring back from the border after delivering their illicit goods. Most gun ownership is illegal in Canada so the focus is mostly on gun smuggling into Mexico by the Cartels. As they have now been designated as foreign terrorist organizations, the illegal gun-running is going to get heightened attention. 200,000 guns are reportedly purchased illegally in the US annually and then smuggled to Mexico. Nearly 70% of guns traced from Mexican crime scenes originated in the US. These guns are being traced back to straw sales in US gun shops. That is a lot of straw.   Legal gun sales in the US rise and fall with the political fortunes. According to the WSJ, background checks fell 7.5% in December and gun manufacturers are feeling a pinch. Gun sales tend to rise when democrats are elected as the public fears that they are a threat to legal gun rights. Nothing much changed during the Biden administration because of GOP control of Congress. Gun shops will tell you that audits and oversight of those holding Federal Firearms Licenses (FFL) increased under Biden. Yet, application time for ATF approval of suppressors declined. Gun manufacturers were under more pressure from lawsuits from a Biden DOJ. With president Trump, public fear of loss of gun rights evaporates ...