CommStock Reports

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/11/2026 Crop Report a Letdown for Bulls, but Not a Gift to Bears PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The September crop report finally came and went, producing a mixed market reaction that ultimately left traders to move on toward wanting to see what actual harvest results say about the crop. First glance went to corn yield, which was down 2.2 on the month to 178.5 bushels per acre and right near the average trade guess. The bullish yield cut was paired with a reduction to harvested acreage (even with planted acreage up slightly, the lower proportion harvested should reflect more corn cut for silage and some crop lost to storms). Higher exports for last year reduced beginning stocks and factored into the new-crop corn carryout dropping to 1.567 billion bushels, not far from the consensus view. Production and ending stocks moved in the opposite direction for soybeans, starting with a yield that went up from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre in contrast with the average trade guess looking for a small reduction. Also going the other way than corn, soybean acres were raised by 103,000. Soybean ending stocks were higher than expected but still lower on the month because of a stronger forecast for exports. The average corn price was raised by 30 cents to $4.80 and the soybean price was up 60 cents to $12.00, with both of the increases amounting to less than ...

09/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video History Doesn’t Provide the Answer, But Gives Guidance On the Grain: Grain and soy complex futures are under pressure as traders take profits ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. December corn futures are trying to hold the recent triple-bottom at $5.26 1/2. There’s a void of support for about 20 cents under that level. November soybeans scored a contract high earlier overnight but have fallen back into the recent consolidation range, signaling a potential failed upside breakout. With funds record long corn and near record long soybeans, they are heavily extended to the upside. Corn and soybeans likely need bullish data from USDA to extend their rallies during harvest. Bearish data from USDA could trigger a rush of long liquidation. Wheat markets are sitting just above key support levels. USDA’s report data won’t be as directly impactful for wheat. Instead, wheat futures are likely to get much of their price direction into the weekend from corn and soybeans. Much of the focus in USDA’s reports will be on yields but harvested acres could be the wild card. Minor reductions in yield and production are expected to corn and soybeans. Changes to the new-crop balance sheets will be primarily driven by adjustments to crop size from last month. Only minor fine-tuning is expected to USDA’s old-crop corn and soybean ending stocks figures, with the Grain Stocks Report at the end of the month setting final 2025-26 carryover figures. Only modest changes ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/10/2026 The Car Washes are Closed in Colorado PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update My oldest daughter turned 50 and the women in our family celebrated with a destination celebration trip leaving the men home. I saw that as opportunity so my son, Chase and I, cowboyed up and did a 5-day road trip to Colorado and back over the Labor Day weekend. I wanted to see their drought for myself and how it impacted their Agriculture. We traveled across SD until cutting down through the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation stopping at Wounded Knee (story there kept for later). I was not impressed with SD crops thinking again as explained in a recent report, that they should have kept the grass and cows. We spent the night in Chadron NE. I'd never been through Western NE before and I Thought the bluffs had eye appeal. We stopped at the Agate Fossil Beds where I took this picture of nearby irrigation operating. By midday we made the Five Rivers feedlot near Kersey for a tour arranged by Commstock Broker, Zach Hooker, who lives in Ault. This was the successor to the old Monfort Feedlot that I had visited decades ago. It has about 100,000 head capacity and I believe they had 67,000 on feed currently. Feeder cattle are hard to come by. The feedlot is there because they get 300 days of sun and the hot and cold is dry, so is not ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/10/2026 Heat Compromises Grain Fill PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I spent some time at the Farm Progress Show last week. Temperatures could be described as "hot and miserable". The effects were clearly having an impact on crop maturity but that may depend on who had moisture and who did not. Soil moisture should mediate some of the effects, but even then, it is hard to imagine there not being some yield slowly being sapped away. I drove across Illinois last week and it seemed to me that the crops were two weeks ahead of schedule. Fields being cut for silage in NW Iowa were reportedly coming in between 225 bpa and 260 bpa. That seems pretty good all things considered. One farmer in NE Iowa lamented how he lost at least 30 bpa from the heat in July….and therefore was "only" going to yield 270 bpa. Our yield potential has been shifting higher and so while losing 10% is frustrating, it must be taken within context. 10% loss from 300 bpa is still a good yield. The feedback from most of the people I spoke with was that $6 corn was inevitable. I would agree that we can reach those levels, but it does make me nervous when so many position themselves on one side of the boat. Private estimates are slowly coming out, mostly ranging between 177 and 180 bpa on corn. If realized, this ...

09/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Awaiting More Demand Confirmation, USDA Data On the Grains Corn and soybeans rebounded overnight, with soybeans supported by Chinese demand. USDA announced daily sales of 340,000 MT to China and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations on Wednesday – part of the roughly 1 MMT Chinese state firms purchased Monday/Tuesday that we mentioned yesterday morning. More daily sales are expected today and/or Friday. Meanwhile, China state stockpiler Sinograin’s Sept. 9 auction of 68,013 MT of state-owned soybean reserves failed to attract any offers for a second straight week. Starting prices ranged from 4,320 to 4,390 yuan ($644 to $655) per metric ton, which was 7% to 8% above the average price from the five previous auctions that attracted strong commercial demand. Commercial firms are telling Sinograin price matters as they wait to see if 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans will be rolled back around the planned Sept. 24 visit to Washington by President Xi Jinping. Wheat markets generally paused overnight as they continue to monitor the Black Sea conflict. While there are increased reports of potential diplomacy, Ukraine and Russia continued to heighten their attacks on each other. This is a classic case of words vs actions. Wheat traders are torn on which to trade. Traders are also positioning ahead of USDA’s September Crop Production and WASDE Reports on Friday. USDA’s corn and soybean estimates will feature the first objective field survey data, along with farmer surveys, satellite imagery and additional FSA acreage data since August. Changes ...

09/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitical Support Builds as Traders Await USDA On the Grains Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but are firmer this morning, led by the wheat markets. Wheat traders continue to monitor the situation in the Black Sea. After Russia rejected a proposal to not strike civilian cargoes in the Black Sea, its forces struck a Ukrainian cargo vessel while it was sailing toward Odesa, claiming the ship was carrying military equipment. Also, there was a Russian strike on the Moldova/Ukraine border overnight, suggesting Russia’s attacks are pushing further west. Ukraine increased its attacks on the Novorossiysk port area. Corn and soybean markets are positioning ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports on Friday. USDA’s corn and soybean estimates will feature the first objective field survey data, along with farmer surveys, satellite imagery and additional FSA acreage data since August. The corn and soybean markets are currently trading figures around the following average pre-report estimates from Reuters for yield and crop production, so anything higher than those from USDA would be price-negative, anything lower would be price-supportive. Changes to the new-crop balance sheets will be primarily driven by adjustments to crop size from last month. Only minor fine-tuning is expected to USDA’s old-crop corn and soybean ending stocks figures, with the Grain Stocks Report at the end of the month setting final 2025-26 carryover figures. Note: There will be no updated wheat production estimates on Friday. USDA’s final 2026 wheat production estimates will ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/08/2026 Building Grudges-Canada Responds with Counter Tariffs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked why Canada was responding to Trumps tariffs in the way that they have and he said "because Canada was attacked." US tariffs were put on every country that engages in commerce with the US yet only China and Canada have fought back with tariffs of their own. The following interview best reveals Trumps thoughts on Canada: "That video you put up yesterday crossing out Lake Ontario and writing in Lake America, it's been seen by about 30 million people, maybe more across all the social media platforms. What message are you sending to Canada with this move today? And why was this such an important thing for you to do? It's an interesting question. No message. As you know, Canada's been ripping us off for a long time on trade. Very sadly, even the military, you know, we defend Canada for nothing. We don't get anything. They don't pay us to defend Canada, but we defend Canada and they understand that. As an example, we bought icebreakers. They'd like to use them. We have 11 brand new icebreakers coming in. They'd like to use the icebreakers. They don't pay for anything and they want to be treated like a state, but they're not a state, but they want to be treated like they're a state and so we just can't ...

09/08/2026 Funds Stay Bulled Up on Grain/Soy Markets Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning market talk this morning.On the Grains: Wheat futures posted strong gains coming out of the extended holiday weekend, as Russia rejected a proposal to end attacks on ships carrying civilian goods in the Black Sea, heightening concerns about prolonged disruptions to grain shipments. The Black Sea disruption has moved from redirecting trade to rationing it. Saudi Arabia's General Food Security Authority cancelled its tender for 535,000 MT of hard milling wheat for November-December delivery after determining that the offers were unsuitable, the first hard evidence that delivered prices have risen past what a major government buyer will pay. Corn and soybeans posted mild gains overnight. The focal point for these markets will be Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports. USDA’s corn and soybean estimates will feature the first objective field survey data, along with farmer surveys, satellite imagery and additional FSA acreage data since August. Private firms are releasing their corn and soybean yield and production forecasts, with more expected early this week. Wire services will release average estimates of a larger list of analysts. Commstock: Corn yield of 177.2 bu. per acre and production of 15.699 billion bu.; soybean yield of 53.4 bu. per acre and production of 4.581 billion bushels. Allendale: Corn yield of 178.7 bu. per acre and production of 15.833 billion bu.; soybean yield of 52.6 bu. per acre and production of 4.515 billion bushels. S&P Global: Corn yield of 180 bu. per acre ...

Grains were poised for a relatively quiet open with mixed prices carrying over from last week, when corn futures were caught between stronger soybeans and weaker wheat. In the Headlines About 50 million Americans were expected to travel this Labor Day Weekend. The TSA said the number of flyers was projected to fall slightly from a year ago. Driving mileage would likely be stagnant in reflection of record gas prices for the holiday. AAA registered the national gasoline price average at $4.15 versus $3.19 last year. Iran attempted to strike two U.S. Navy ships to prompt retaliation against three Iranian oil tankers. An Iranian official threatened to target U.S. energy assets across the Middle East. Another official said there would be an "exclusion zone" established just outside the Strait of Hormuz. Hostilities over the weekend likely slowed oil flows following what U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said was an average of 9 million barrels passing through the Strait of Hormuz per day. President Trump held a press conference alongside USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to announce new executive orders aimed at supporting American ranchers and promoting fair competition in livestock markets. Among the directives was prioritization of investigations into "a marketplace dominated by a handful of packers." USDA will bolster its programs supporting smaller regional processors with new initiatives involving shipping, inspections, and grading. Grazing opportunities will be increased with one million new acres accepted into Grasslands CRP. The USDA is directed to work with the U.S. Trade Representative to "review its authorities related to ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/04/2026 Harvest Has a Super El Nino Threat PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Weather may remain the biggest wildcard facing farmers as September begins. After a stretch of hotter, drier conditions across much of the Corn Belt, the outlook shifts wetter, which is still welcome to some but a concern for those at risk of rain becoming too much at exactly the wrong time. The developing Super El Nino is at play as it brings significant changes to weather patterns and raises the threat of having harvest disrupted by episodes of heavy precipitation, hail, and wind. Recent storms demonstrate the potential for crop damage. August featured tornados and a derecho that toppled corn fields across the Midwest. There were also 'macrobursts' and other wind events that were evident in the trees and powerlines downed across the region. Loss totals did not rival the notorious 2020 derecho, but individual impacts were significant and every affected field reduces production in a way that must be accounted for as harvest estimates are dialed in. The focus will continue to shift from weather's determination of yields to its influence on crop quality and harvest efficiency. While much-above normal temperatures have rushed crops to maturity in many places, the possible approach of heavy rainfall could keep farmers from getting to into the field. Such issues were observed in past years, notably in 2020 and 2021 when tropical storms swamped harvest-ready crops in ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/04/2026 Forward Guidance from Jackson Hole PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! 30(57.7%) Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Fed meets annually each summer at Jackson Hole, Wyoming to let the fresh air clear their vision for monetary policy. I do not begrudge them that. One comment from Jackson that surprised me was an attribution from a Fed Governor over following Dr. Ed Yardeni. Who is that? “Edward Yardeni is an Israeli-born American economist and the president of Yardeni Research, which offers economic research and recommendations to clients. He is also the former chief economist for EF Hutton, Prudential Securities, and C. J. Lawrence. (Wikipedia)” It is unusual for a Fed banker to name someone specific that they go to for market perspective so that makes Yardeni special. I too have become familiar with his work. I would describe him as a wall-climber as Yardeni has advised staying aboard the bull market as it… “climbs the wall of worry.”  Yardeni is a stock market super-bull forecasting 8400 S&P yet this year resulting from historical corporate earnings growth. The worry that is the highest mountain to get over, is interest rates. Yardeni believes that as long as the 10-Year Treasury Bond trades in the 4-5% range that the stock market will reach his goal. He thinks that the stock market can handle a couple Fed incremental rate hikes and still be okay. Economist and market strategist Ed Yardeni characterizes the current 2020s decade as a modern "Roaring ...

09/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Quiet for Now Ahead of Key Data, Holiday Weekend On the Grains Corn and soybean futures are trading modestly lower early this morning, while wheat has turned mostly firmer. Price action was two-sided and relatively calm overnight. Traders will comb news on the geopolitical front, weather and demand side as they prepare for the upcoming three-day holiday weekend. That could lead to increased volatility ahead of today’s closes.The broader marketplace will also be influenced by the August employment report, which will be another data point for the Fed to consider ahead of its monetary policy meeting later this month. Expectations center on roughly 53,000 non-farm payrolls added and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Outside markets are relatively quiet ahead of the potential market-moving data.On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration appears ready to restart high-level shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv this weekend, raising expectations for a renewed push to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Russia and Ukraine Saturday and Sunday, according to Russia's TASS news agency. Meanwhile, attacks between the two countries continue and grain flows out of the Black Sea have been virtually halted.Don’t Sleep on Soymeal Demand USDA reported combined old- and new-crop soymeal export sales of 731,300 MT for the week ended Aug. 27. For perspective, that was a record for weeks that didn’t include multiple weeks of data due to a government shutdown or a week that included ...

09/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Remain Highly Sensitive to Headlines On the Grains Grain and soy markets faced heavy selling overnight and are showing signs of short-term exhaustion on the daily charts. Wheat markets led the overnight price plunge as Russian President Vladimir Putin said there is a “chance” at peace with Ukraine. This comes on the heels of Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan saying earlier this week he had a plan to resurrect grain shipments from the Black Sea. A near-term peace agreement is unlikely, but the overnight price action illustrates how sensitive the wheat market is to geopolitical headlines. Soybeans are being pressured in part by a disagreement between Chinese and U.S. officials at a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday publicly accused Chinese officials of preventing the group from issuing a joint communique. Chinese officials reportedly didn’t like the phrase “non-market” in a sentence addressing trade imbalances, indirectly referencing China’s subsidies for state-owned firms and its outsized exports. Importantly, the U.S. is joined by other key global trading partners in criticizing Beijing for its overreliance on exports for growth. There are rumblings that the planned meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping in Washington on Sept. 24 could get pushed back. This is pre-meeting posturing by U.S. and Chinese officials and the meeting still appears likely to happen, though there is recent precedent for a delay as the planned March confab in China was pushed back to mid-May. In the case of ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/02/2026 Do You Have A Trillion Dollars To Spare? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Every so often we read headlines about record US debt after it has achieved some new threshold. Most have grown numb to it as people struggle to comprehend the numbers. What does a trillion dollars even look like? It takes 1,000 of a billion to reach a trillion. If you stacked $100 bills on top of each other, a trillion dollars would reach out into space. Now take that times 40, and that is the level of US debt we have now achieved. It took our country 200 years (1789 – 1989) to grow from zero to 3 trillion in debt. We have now added another 37 trillion in just the last 36 years. Total debt is now over $40 trillion dollars. Does this really mean anything? The real measure is comparing how fast debt rises compared to the economy. If I owe a trillion dollars on my farm mortgage, that sounds bad at first, unless of course the value of the farm has risen to where it is worth $2 trillion – then it becomes serviceable. US GDP has historically managed to keep pace but not so much lately. Debt is now growing three times faster relative to the economy. And therein lies the problem. The interest on payments alone is $1 trillion per year which matches our spending on Defense. We ...

09/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Nothing Changed but Money Flow On the Grains After posting contract highs earlier in the overnight session, corn, soybeans and SRW wheat pulled back and are under pressure early this morning. Meal, soyoil, HRW and HRS wheat didn’t post new highs but they are also weaker. Chalk up the price pressure to profit-taking after recent strong gains and heavy wave of money flow into the long side of grain and soy markets. Nothing has changed fundamentally, so money flow will determine whether the overnight weakness is seen as a fresh buying opportunity or if the corrective pullback extends. A pullback that lets markets catch their breath is healthy. It would take a sharp shift in money flow to signal short-term tops are in place. Russia and Ukraine continued their barrage of attacks on each other overnight. Grain shipments out of the Black Sea region remain restricted, with no sign of meaningful relief anytime soon. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC), the country's largest farmers' organization, advised exporters and producers to construct trading strategies on the assumption that deep-water port operations will not resume before December or January. That would cut into Ukraine’s corn export season. Russia officially suspended export taxes on wheat, barley and corn though the end of this calendar year, though that’s been widely talked about and won’t materially change grain shipments. Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping discussed the possibility of trilateral talks with President Trump at the APEC summit in China on ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/01/2026 Peter Zeihan on Biofuels PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Zeihan recently aired a video that caught the attention of many biofuels' supporters who were troubled by it. He is a well-known geo-politicist demographer and author that has spoken at many commodity conferences. His point of view has proven worthy of consideration. Zeihan Transcript Excerpt: "Today we're taking a question from the Patreon crowd, specifically how I see US agriculture evolving over the next several years, specifically in light of the balance among corn, soy, and biofuels, with ethanol being at the top of the list. A real quick history lesson for those of you not familiar with the space: the United States has used gasoline and diesel for pretty much everything for transport for the entire industrial age until we got to the early 2000s, when we got a fuel mandate from the federal government that said a certain percentage of most gasoline that you pump has to have a certain percentage of ethanol. In most states, it's in the 10 to 15% range. Lots of people have bitched and moaned about this for multiple reasons, but basically, it took the single largest commodity class that the United States had—fuel—and cross-referenced it with the second largest, which is row crop, specifically corn. Go back to the '80s, a few states in the Midwest like Iowa had their own state ethanol mandates, but now we had a national one. ...

09/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video New Recommendations Day 3:  Reco 1: Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Filled on Aug. 31. Reco 2: Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 3: Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 4: Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. Filled on Aug. 31. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. New Month, Money Still Flowing Long On the Grains: The flip of the calendar to September didn’t change anything in the grain and soy markets overnight, aside from corn not being the price leader. Instead, soybeans, soy oil and the winter wheat markets paced the overnight gains. Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets all posted contract highs. Soyoil futures filled the July 27 gap on the daily chart, with the EPA’s small refinery exemptions deemed better than feared (see “Other Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below for details and analysis). After the huge rush of fund money into the long side of the corn market in August, leadership in the other markets is healthy and needed to keep building upside momentum. While the calendar has flipped, the script is much the same. USDA rated 57% of the corn crop as good or excellent, unchanged from the previous week and three ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/31/2026 You can see that there is about 50 BPA Missing! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update These were ears of our corn checked on one of our farms during the GammaQ crop tour earlier this month. The tip-back that was evident was a surprise. It probably should not have been considering the record high average July heat when stress degree days began to accumulate. If there are enough ears and they fill well there is still yield potential. The tour estimated our average yield on this field to be 250 bpa so it was not the end of the world. Our corn never showed drought stress but the crop responded to the heat extreme nevertheless. We believe that we have 300 bpa yield potential in our genetics and choice of maturity each season. We have never averaged 300 bpa so something happens every year to tip back the crop somehow. Climate scientists reference heat this summer as being comparable to 1936 which brings back the 89-year drought cycle narrative. If farmers in the plains states still farmed using the practices of the 1930s, 2026 would have been reminiscent of a dust bowl. Moldboard plows are now antiques and irrigation keeps the dust down as well. After the Pro-Farmer Crop tour found the corn crop wanting pretty much everywhere but IA and MN, the trade will be guessing next how far USDA lowers its crop yield in the next ...

08/31/2026 New Recommendations Day 2:  Reco 1: Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Reco 2: Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 3: Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 4: Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Month-End Positioning, But Bulls Dominated August On the Grains: Corn and soybean futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn trading near unchanged and soybeans under light pressure early this morning. Wheat futures are facing heavier corrective selling, especially in the winter wheat markets. Markets will continue to be influenced by money flow, with weather, geopolitics, biofuels policy and other factors influencing investor decisions, so volatility is likely to remain elevated. Biofuels policy: EPA is expected today to announce its decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. Two things to consider. First, the number that matters is not the headline RIN total but the reallocation percentage attached to it. A 1.8-billion-RIN package with full reallocation would be a materially different outcome for soyoil than a 1.2-billion-RIN package with 70% reallocation. Second, EPA has missed soft deadlines before. Markets expect EPA’s decision today. Any decision that slips past today would add to ...

Grains were set up for follow-through on stronger settlements from Friday but buying could eventually give way to a back-and-fill trade that coincides with month-end profit-taking. Top influences include flaring of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, a Venezuelan oil deal, and traders waiting for the decision on biofuel waivers. In the Headlines Interest rate expectations shifted sharply again on Friday as Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh spoke at the Jackson Hole conference. Warsh expressed concern about high inflation and referenced interest rates as the main tool for stabilizing prices. The odds of a Fed funds rate hike coming from the September meeting jumped to 57 percent likely, up from 35 percent on Thursday. The market reaction featured higher bond yields and a stronger dollar along with a reversal down for gold and silver. President Trump announced another deal to bring down prices, this one involving the Venezuelan oil and the rights to untapped production fields holding an estimated 65 billion barrels. The U.S. government was granted majority ownership in a company that can buy the oil at cost under an agreement lasting 100 years.  The company would own the rights to about one-third of the country’s oil output capacity, more than any other single entity except for Saudi Arabia. Venezuela’s government defends the deal with expectations of the economy benefiting from infrastructural investments and related tax revenue. Russia carried out a damaging series of strikes against Ukraine this weekend, starting with an attack on an ammunitions depot located near a heavy civilian population. ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/28/2026 Watch Out for Weaker Basis and Spreads PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update New Recommendation:  Recco #1:  Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Recco #2   Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00.   Recco #3:  Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00.  Recco #4:  Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. Today is the last day for September grain longs to be liquidated or rolled before the risk of taking delivery comes on Monday. You would not expect many deliveries in this environment where the nearby corn spread is historically wide and while there are very few traders with old-crop soybeans available to let go of. The September/December corn futures spread is somewhat of a standout for it being the third year in a row that it has moved out past 20 cents, which is the rough calculation of "full carry" for offering compete coverage of the costs of storage, insurance, and interest associated with holding the grain. It may be partly that speculators have been quicker to get long in the December contract during the last three years when the funds have been bullish in the summer. This year, the September contract was likely used most heavily in connection with farmers selling more of last year's record corn crop. Supporting the case of harvest price pressure coming this fall, farmers not only ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/28/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Ending On A High Note On the Grains Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight as bulls look to cap off a strong week of trade with a flurry. Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets all marked contracts highs overnight, while front-month futures jumped to fresh multi-year highs on the continuation charts. What a week bulls have had – to this point. Traders await EPA’s decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year that will have implications for corn and soyoil (soybeans by association) demand – and therefore could be a major market mover. There have been lots of rumors and newswire reports this week citing “people familiar with the situation.” As of Thursday evening, nothing had been finalized, though the latest report from Reuters said the Trump administration was considering a plan that would increase biofuel quotas for the 2027 calendar year by roughly 500 million gallons to offset any damage caused by bigger-than-originally-planned SREs, which in theory could be exempted later as well. The administration seems hell bent on trying to lower fuel prices by granting more SREs. Good luck with that tactic, if that’s what they choose. Any relief for refiners wouldn’t make it to consumers at the pump. And if it did… the results wouldn’t be enough to make a noticeable difference. Reuters also reported President Trump plans to meet with U.S. ⁠refiners and fuel retailers next week to highlight efforts ​to lower gasoline prices. Good ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/27/2026 Asymmetric attack on NATO PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Another something else you should know about that is not widely common knowledge being under-reported by the primary media or not having yet made the dominant headline of the day, is the aggressive warming conflict between Russia and NATO that is unfolding. Could be a reason why US CIA Director John Ratcliffe made a trip to Moscow this week. That news was kept quiet compared to Dolly Parton death. As with stories such as the security risk of the Qatari Air Force One, US missile inventory depletion, the logistical challenges faced by our military to sustain itself in the Iran war that were not news until they were, there are other similar story lines waiting in the wings under the surface that would be "news" to a majority of Americans still in the dark. Here is another one that should be a banner headline that we will spotlight: Kiev Post: Chuck Pfarrer retired Seal Team 6 Leader Abbreviated Transcript: "In the early evening of August 5, 2026, a quadcopter penetrated the controlled airspace of Germany's Leipzig airport. Suddenly diving, the drone smashed into the wing of a Ukrainian-owned Antonov Airlines An-124, a strategic heavy-lift aircraft. The drone bounced off the wing of the plane and fell to the taxiway. No one witnessed the attack, but surveillance video captured it, and the smashed drone was discovered hours later. German bomb technicians ...

08/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Buckle Up; Please Keep Hands & Feet Inside for Duration of The Ride On the Grains Front-month SRW wheat futures pushed to the highest levels in three years overnight before sharply retreating. Futures are trading around 20 cents off their overnight highs early this morning. Of note: SRW and HRW contracts have expanded limits of 70 cents today. Corn and soybeans are lower on pullbacks from Wednesday’s strong gains. Wheat remains a geopolitically headline-driven market, with focus on the Black Sea region. Russia increased its barrage on Ukraine’s grain export hub in the Odesa Oblast overnight with more than seven hours of missel and drone attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top official said talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials could be held in ‌September and include U.S. representatives. Export abilities for both countries have been compromised over the past two months, causing concerns about supplies from the region. Traders have added roughly $1.50 of war/geopolitical premium to front-month SRW futures during that time. Soyoil futures are under heavy pressure again this morning as the market braces for EPA’s pending announcement on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year, which have been promised by the end of August – and could come as early as today. There is reportedly infighting within the Trump administration over the level of SREs to be granted, with White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller and the National Energy Dominance Council pushing for greater exemptions than EPA originally planned in ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/26/2026 If the Toothpaste wasn't out of the Tube…it is Now! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After opening the US beef market to imports, the initials MAGA appear to mean Make Argentina Great Again. Argentina First…US cattlemen get the leftovers. When Donald Trump definitively says that beef prices were too high and he intended to lower them…you should believe him. There is the political calculation that there are more beef consumers who vote than there are cattle producers and heck…most cattle producers will vote for him anyway…he is sure of that. Cattlemen will huff and puff voicing indignation over Trumps action that will accordingly bring cattle prices down with beef prices. I told you repeatedly in previous reports that it is 2026 and something would happen cyclically that would produce a big break in cattle prices this year. Trump gave fair warning. The Trump administration, with the support of Ag Secretary Rollins, was blaming high beef prices on the previous administration like they always do. That should be good enough for many still on team Trump though the number of devoted followers has shrunk now to about a third of voters in polls…if you believe them. He is continuing his efforts to bring down beef prices. Believe that. Trump announced that, that for the next 90 days, the US will allow up to 300,000mt of ground beef to be imported without triggering higher tariff rates. In exchange for ...