CommStock Reports

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/23/2026 Re-ownership Ideas for Harvest Pressure Easing Soon PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Most farmers are likely to make sales during harvest, many had already contracted sales ahead of harvest. The University of Illinois once conducted a survey that found a surprising 91 percent of farmers made pre-harvest crop sales. Other studies have aligned with USDA estimates to show farmers usually having roughly one-third of corn and soybean crops contracted before harvest, although that number would fluctuate according to price levels. Trader positions data suggests that farmers may have conducted pre-harvest sales to a greater degree this year, taking advantage of previously much higher futures prices. In the market's run up to September, farmer selling was more than absorbed by speculative buying. Farmer selling has swamped the market since then. The sheer size of the ongoing grain harvest was overwhelming buying interest in the futures market as farmers sold large volumes of corn and soybeans while speculative traders simultaneously reduced their exposure. Now that harvest has advanced past its halfway point, seasonal pressure can begin to ease as more of the remaining crop is put away for storage. Next week's central bank meeting also marks a juncture when investment sentiment has the potential to shift bullish on commodities again. Commodity funds and other institutional traders have been in liquidation mode at the same time that farmers were actively selling from the fresh harvest. The corn harvest has ...

10/23/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat In Extended Daily, Weekly Losing Strings On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded narrowly around unchanged in rather directionless overnight price action. Corn and beans snapped their recent daily string of losses earlier this week – corn on Wednesday and soybeans on Thursday. Wheat is still trying to accomplish that feat. On a weekly basis, SRW wheat will finish lower for an eight straight week – the longest string for the most actively traded contract since 1997. Barring big rallies today, corn is poised for its fourth straight weekly decline and soybeans will end lower for a second straight week. USDA announced another 202,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China on Thursday, with the six-day total increasing to 1.950 MMT. More will be coming as China’s state-owned firms booked more cargoes on Thursday, as they are using the break to the lowest prices since late August to push toward finalizing the 25 MMT purchase commitment for 2026-27. Accounting for China’s export commitments through Oct. 15, sales to unknown destinations (much of which are to China) and the barrage of buying over the past week-plus, Beijing has purchased around 80% of its commitment. The question isn’t whether China will buy 25 MMT, but what happens to export demand when the Chinese buying dries up? Rapid harvest progress was made this week. Forecasts call for mostly dry conditions next week, though rains could disrupt harvest efforts in some areas of the western Corn Belt. DTN’s ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/22/2026 Becoming a Snowbird One Way or the Other PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The average age of a corn-belt farmer is something close to 58 years old and after a few decades of farm-work, scooping snow and sliding around on the ice, finding a warmer place to at least take a break from the winter becomes appealing. I get phone calls from farmer-friends in Cabo, Phoenix, Brownsville, Fort Lauderdale…all warmer places than Iowa in January and February. So many farmers go south in the winter that they coined the term, calling them "snowbirds". Some buy campers/motor homes so can go anywhere on wheels. Some motor homes cost as much as a nice house. Others rent or buy condos or second homes in AZ or FL. Others buy trailer-homes on site. One family said they bought 5 trailers in a park in TX and rent out 4 of them using the fifth. They said they make money from the investment. Motor homes provide mobility. There are many parks that cater to snowbirds with monthly or extended stay rental rates that come with amenities including swimming pools and free high-speed WI-FI. They call a "snowbird" in Texas "Winter Texans". I know a family where the siblings bought a lake house together for the summer here and a time-share in Mexico for the winter. Canadians make up a huge flock of snowbirds but now instead of landing in ...

10/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Pause Awaiting Strong Demand Signal On the Grains: Corn and soybeans are mildly firmer early this morning, as markets are pausing following their recent sharp losses. Wheat futures struggled to find buyers overnight. Corn snapped its six-day string of declines on Wednesday. Soybeans and wheat are still trying to halt their string of price losses. Traders will look to export demand to signal prices have fallen far enough to attract strong global end-user buying. Until there’s a strong demand signal and/or some other reason that dries up fund selling, any strength will be purely corrective in nature. USDA reported another 114,000 MT of daily new-crop soybean sales to China on Wednesday, pushing the five-day total to nearly 1.75 MMT. USDA also announced daily soybean sales of 165,000 MT to Spain, which is more important, as it signals value buying by someone other than China. The market assumes China will buy its 25 MMT of soybeans and then be done. That means any export demand boost must come from other sources. Traders also want to see value buying show up for corn. There have only been two daily corn sales announced this month – 218,600 MT to Mexico on Oct. 2 and 127,000 MT to Japan on Oct. 16. If value buying doesn’t show up in corn it will signal global end-users sense that prices are headed even lower. Data for the week ended Oct. 15 that will be released at 7:30 a.m. CT will provide the ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/21/2026 War Fighters with IRAN are Preparing for the Next Escalation PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A Pew Research poll this month found that 33% of Americans favored the way that President Trump has handled the war with Iran. That is the core base of his support that nothing he does will ever alienate them. It has never bothered me to me in a minority of opinion but I am not with that one. The only thing good that you could say about his handling of the war thus far was that he did resist impulses that could have led to even worse decisions and outcomes. I think that statement was being generous. This conflict is a very long way from any lasting resolution and there is plenty of opportunity for more mistakes.  He does have an unprecedented level of arrogant hubris to him that carries a risk that puts us all in danger. It is amazing, with all the serious issues impactful to all of us, how much time he instead spends working on vanity projects. Diesel fuel prices are up, mostly because of Trumps war with Iran. So, he gives Putin sanctions relief and asks for his help adding to the supply of diesel while portraying Ukraine as the bad guys. That will make Russia's war with Ukraine even worse. Neither war is any-where close to being resolved. USDA will reportedly give farmers another $8 ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/20/2026 My Humble Thoughts on Selling Beans Off the Combine. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The market continues to search for a reason to find a bottom. We have broken the previous weekly low in December corn, signaling potential for another sharp drop. Next support levels are at $4.5725. The fundamentals are not so bearish as the fact that managed money is tipping the scales as they continue to slowly drip out of their long positions. The trade has been so "bulled" up for it may take a while for this to run its course. One customer described Iowa yields best: "We had a record soybean yield by a wide margin. Others in our area have been experiencing the same." This was from SE Iowa. I can confirm it is similar in NW Iowa. We always want to be careful and not extrapolate our yield situation to everywhere else. There are always going to be areas that do not perform as well. But we continue to believe that soybean yield estimates can still be adjusted higher. Harvest pressure will continue the second half of October as temperatures warm up and clear skies give way to the Central and Eastern Corn Belt. I had previously sold up to 100% of my APH, admittedly too soon. I was fortunate that I ended up producing roughly 13% over that level. I decided to liquidate those remaining bushels as well. First off, ...

10/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Money Flow Will Determine When Lows Are In On the Grains: Mild corrective buying surfaced in corn, soybeans and wheat overnight as markets took a breather from the recent heavy price pressure. Unless funds return as active buyers, however, the upside is limited to corrective buying as corn and soybeans face ongoing seasonal pressure with harvest picking up steam and traders are uninspired by export demand. Money flow remains the most powerful price influence, so fund activity during daytime trade when they are far more active will indicate if the overnight strength turns into anything more than a modest correction. Over the past week, USDA has confirmed daily soybean sales of 1.472 MMT to China and another 780,450 MT to unknown destinations. Additional daily soybean sales are likely as China continued to shop for U.S. soybeans, though traders have repeatedly brushed that news aside, assuming Beijing will get to its 25 MMT commitment for 2026-27. Traders deem corn export demand as disappointing, with export commitments running 33% behind year-ago. However, that’s a short-sighted comparison since there were no soybeans flowing to China at this time last year and there were excess bushels to export given the record crop. Wheat export commitments are 32% behind last year and 14% behind the five-year average as disruptions to Black Sea shipments have not translated into improved demand for U.S. supplies. Corn Harvest Lagging; Soybeans Nearly Caught Up USDA reported corn planting advanced 11 percentage points to 44%, though that was eight points ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/19/2026 Agronomically… The Year is Going Pretty Much as Expected PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update We entered this growing season here in NW IA with a full profile of subsoil moisture and got both our corn and soybeans planted early…our soybeans on the earliest date ever. I have noted that given those two criteria, of moisture reserves and timely planting date being favorably met, that crops then are tough to kill in the subsequent growing season. There was also a building El Nino to consider impacting this growing season. This is typically a positive thing, with El Nino years typically cooler and wetter in the corn-belt. The El Nino took its time to develop and I voiced concern over the delay about the possibility of a cold wet fall. Coming home from DesMoines recently I noted that there was water standing in the field near Boxholm in central Iowa. Bet basements there flooded. I feared mudding the crop out and tearing up fields. I was concerned that the ground may have to freeze before they could finish getting the crop out there. I remember when my dad and uncle got up from the Thanksgiving dinner table to go out and finish picking corn. I do not see that happening again. All things considered, this harvest will finish this fall. So far, we have been lucky in NW IA and harvest conditions have been okay. The soybeans are ...

10/19/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds Need Reason to Flip Buy Switch Back On On the Grains Wheat markets firmed a little overnight, while corn and soybeans pivoted around unchanged in quiet trade. Fresh market-moving news remains limited, technical trade and money flow will be key during daytime trade to open the week. Traders brushed aside last week’s aggressive Chinese soybean purchases as harvest pressure, technical selling and money flow dominated price action. Key for the new week is whether funds remain in liquidation mode or return as buyers. They likely need a fundamental reason to flip on the buy switch. As of Oct. 13, funds liquidated more length across the grain and soy markets, reducing their net long position to 783,174 futures contracts and 757,717 futures and options positions. Two noteworthy developments. 1) The futures and options position was smaller than the futures only position. 2) The corn long position was smaller than soybeans for the reporting period. Of note: The reporting period didn’t include the final three days last week during which November soybeans fell 22 1/2 cents and December corn dropped 8 cents. Geopolitically, Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other and any grain shipping truce seems unlikely anytime soon. Most noteworthy is that Russia and Ukraine aren’t talking to each other, though both are having separate discussions with third party countries. Russian President Vladimir Putin has proposed that he, President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping meet next month to talk about Ukraine in an attempt ...

Grains face early selling pressure from hedgers getting covered after a busy harvest weekend. Guidance comes from the energy trade after that. In the Headlines Down 30 cents for the week, soybean futures shrugged off Chinese buying listed to total nearly 1.5 million metric tons. While significant, the purchases were likely only a fraction of the amount of soybeans sold by farmers across the scale last week. Down just a nickel last week, corn futures faced harvest pressure but relatively less in the form of farmer selling as producers delivered against previous contracts and opted to sell soybeans/store corn. President Trump on Friday issued an executive order waiving the sanctions against Russia that were passed in the Graham Act with bipartisan support. The move was Trump's latest in an effort to tame surging fuel prices. Utilizing more than 1,000 drones, Ukraine attacked a Russian oil terminal in St. Petersburg on Sunday in the latest targeting of energy infrastructure following claims of Russia striking Ukraine's oil and gas assets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken out against what he claimed were 76 instances of Russian assaults on energy infrastructure in the week since President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had reached an energy ceasefire. The Federal Reserve Bank has entered its blackout period where its officials are restricted on speaking publicly ahead of the next rate setting meeting scheduled for October 28th. Last week finished with bond yields edging back slightly lower while the dollar index leveled off after reaching its highest level since spring ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/16/2026 Harvest Low Comes When Storage is Full PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A study from the University of Illinois found that this season's crop production will combine with grain stocks leftover from last year to equal 99 percent of nationwide storage capacity. While that actually sounds like a relief given the bearish outlook associated with expecting the second largest ever corn crop and a new record soybean crop, the devil is in the details about how most Corn Belt states individually exceed their available storage space. Missouri was projected with the leading deficit, as total supply will represent 119 percent of storage capacity; South Dakota was estimated at 111 percent, Indiana 109, Iowa 109, Nebraska 108, and Illinois at 105. The research shows storage pressure quickly finding relief by the time winter rolls around, with the Corn Belt states historically averaging 70 percent for capacity utilization upon the Dec. 1 stocks count. From now until then, basis and spreads will guide grain futures as they reflect the strength of demand and how efficiently grain is being shifted into position for domestic usage and export. This morning's flash sales are representative of the demand that will move bushels away from the Midwest storage crunch this fall. Soybean futures were again shrugging off a rather large soybean sale to China, treating it as old news, but the return of Chinese soybean business marks an obvious contrast from last ...

10/16/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Breaking Down as China Buys More On the Grains: Soybeans mildly extended Thursday’s breakdown below the Oct. 9 low during overnight trade. Corn and wheat futures also traded lower overnight. Corn futures are still solidly above their Oct. 9 lows, while wheat markets are threatening a downside breakout from near-term support. Money is flowing out of the long side of the grain and soy markets. The pressure on soybeans is coming from a combination of seasonal pressure, chart-based selling and fund liquidation, despite aggressive Chinese buys this week. USDA has confirmed 800,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China over the past two days and more are coming. Bloomberg reports that China’s state-owned firms have booked at least 20 cargoes – around 1.3 MMT. What China hasn’t been buying is other agricultural goods, despite its May pledge to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. farm products beyond its existing soybean commitments. Chinese commercial firms are waiting on tariff rollbacks before making purchases. Farmers, exporters and traders are still waiting for a precise prorated 2026 target and a clear accounting of purchases credited toward the agreement. The U.S./China Board of Trade has published procedures and proposed product lists, but those documents do not resolve the farm-purchase accounting questions or establish an effective date for tariff reductions. Don’t Panic… There’s A Reason Soy Crush Slowed in September NOPA members crushed only 196.3 million bu. of soybeans in September, far below expectations. The crush pace slowed 4.5% from ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/15/2026 Going Where the Ride Takes Us PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update It frankly may surprise some that, basis all the alarming headlines and handwringing, that there is any good news about the US fiscal condition. There is great cause for concern because there is no argument or ambiguity that the accumulating US government debt is careening toward an eventual cliff. Any brakes appear to be failing with the momentum unstoppable. We may not know where the edge of the cliff is before we go over it…but…if the bond market was as bad as some say it is, we should already be looking up at the cliff after some kind of crash having gone over it. There is more resilience to the global bond market than many expected and the Bank of the USA continues to pay interest to creditors and sell new Treasuries. The full faith and credit of the US government remain intact for now. The 10-year US Treasury rate has gone up roughly three-quarters of a percent to near 5.25% this year. A 6-15-month CD will pay in the vicinity of 5%. Rates are just returning to where they were historically before the last recession-related collapse in rates when 10-year US Treasuries hit bottom at .32% in December of 2019. Remember there was a brief period of time when banks wanted to charge you to hold your CD. That was the mortgage interest rate ...

10/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Dollar Headwinds Ease Overnight, But Could Be Key Factor On the Grains Soybeans traded lower overnight, threatening a downside breakout below the Oct. 9 low. While that support was probed overnight, it failed to uncover fresh sell orders. Corn and winter wheat markets pivoted around unchanged in quiet overnight trade. An emerging headwind for grains is the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is lower overnight on a pullback from Wednesday’s runup to the highest level since April 2025, but is trading well above par, as the Fed is expected to further raise interest rates to combat inflation. U.S. consumer inflation for September came in hotter than expected on Wednesday. U.S. producer prices for September will be out at 7:30 a.m. CT. The dollar can be a “reason” for daily price movement in the grain markets, especially on days when fundamental news is limited. Importantly, the dollar could be a deciding factor in whether managed money accounts want to shed more of what was recently a record combined net long position in the grain and soy markets or resume their buying. The broader concern is tied to competitiveness on the global export market. The stronger the dollar, the less competitive it makes U.S. exports. The U.S. dollar index is weighted against a basket of six other major currencies – the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%) and Swiss franc (3.6%). The Chinese yuan is not part of the dollar calculation. But the ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/14/2026 I am in Medora North Dakota PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Actually, I am back home now but where I am at has become a series. My wife and I are in the travel mode of our lives…getting around while we still can. We are the aging baby-boomer generation and on the cruise that we were recently on, our fellow ship-mates had mostly white hair…past grey. There were traffic jams of mobility scooters at the elevators. Since summer I have been to Brazil, Colorado, Canada and now North Dakota with more scheduled travel to come. I am not ready for a mobility scooter yet but have been comparing models. I was in North Dakota last week as that is where the annual meeting of the Theodore Roosevelt Association was held. They called it ‘TEDDYCON’. The TRA was chartered by Congress in 1920. I am a long-time member (though not since 1920). The annual convention location in Medora was chosen because it was the Grand Opening on July 4th, 2026 of the new Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library there. This was the first time ever that two presidential libraries opened in the same year…Teddys along with Obama library. The Obama presidential library cost $1bln, opened in a city of 7 mln and has had 1700 visitors per day. The Roosevelt library cost $500 mln, was in Medora… a town of 186 residents and attracted 1800 visitors per day. ...

10/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Buys More U.S. Soybeans, Big Corn Purchases Unlikely On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight on support from Chinese demand news. Corn and wheat both favored the downside. Reuters reported Chinese state-owned firms purchased eight to 10 cargoes (roughly 520,000 to 650,000 MT) of U.S. soybeans this week. Export sources said most of the soybeans were booked for shipment from the PNW in January. Daily sales announcements will be watched for confirmation of the purchases. Meanwhile, an official with China’s state-owned Cofco says China’s corn production expanded as much as 8 MMT this year and that U.S. corn imports are not yet economically viable for commercial firms even with a reduced tariff rate. He expects China to import only 3.5 MMT of corn in 2026-27, which is 2.5 MMT less than the ag ministry forecasts, including less than 1 MMT of U.S. corn. As we’ve noted, there are other ag commodities that China needs more than corn that will get it to the $17 billion in purchases (will be prorated to an unspecified amount for this year) beyond soybeans. That doesn’t mean China won’t buy some U.S. corn, but large volumes are unlikely. September trade data showed China imported 11.88 MMT of soybeans in September, down 2.1% from August and 7.7% from year-ago. As we noted yesterday, China’s soybeans arrivals are expected to average around 9.5 MMT during the fourth quarter. China’s Sinograin continues to auction older state-owned reserves to make room for U.S. new-crop soybean arrivals that will go ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/13/2026 My Iowa Soybeans Still Outyield The Farm In Brazil PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update On my drive through Iowa this weekend I was surprised by how little harvest had progressed in Central Iowa.  There were several noticeable spots with water still standing in fields despite having a stretch of warm weather.  I noticed one combine slowly making their way through the field leaving muddy tracks in its path.  This is extremely frustrating for Central Iowa growers as they are forced to sit and wait.  Harvest progress did not begin to pick up until well North of Hwy 20. In NW Iowa the bean harvest is looking to finish this week.  I have heard many reports of early yields hitting 80+ bpa.  However, later harvested fields have been falling as moisture levels plummet due to a warmer than average fall.  Temperatures hit almost 90 degrees this weekend.  We harvested the bulk of our soybeans in a 9-day period.  Our first day of harvest, moisture levels in beans were at 13%.  By day 3, they were at 11%.  The family did not harvest my field of beans until day 9 (this past Sunday).  By then moisture levels averaged about 9.5%.  While soil conditions were still relatively moist, the beans themselves dried quickly.  But a week earlier they were not even ready for harvest.  This is the same issue we had last year.  Field conditions did not allow us ...

10/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bulls Need a Fresh Catalyst On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded lower overnight amid a lack of supportive news. With USDA’s October crop reports last Friday taking the bloom off the rose for bulls, a fresh bullish catalyst is needed to rebuild buyer interest across the grain and soy complex. Corn and soybean harvest activity is in full swing, adding seasonal headwinds to both markets. Scattered rains are expected during the next couple of days across areas of the Corn Belt, though harvest will remain active. USDA will update the corn and soybean harvest paces this afternoon. China’s Sinograin sold 209,904 MT of imported soybeans from an offering of 518,175 MT – a 40.51% clearance rate. The average transaction price was 4,298.43 yuan per MT ($642). With no tariff rollback for U.S. soybeans, commercial firms will use the state-owned reserves to bridge the gap until new-crop South American soybeans are ready for export. On Note: An official with China’s state-owned Cofco said fourth quarter soybean arrivals in China are expected to average 9.5 MMT, which would be up from 8.5 MMT last year and 7.7 MMT two years ago. Attacks in the Black Sea continue. Russian drones reportedly attacked two merchant vessels off the coast of Bulgaria overnight. But wheat traders are showing fatigue to the ongoing situation. Top USDA Officials Also Asking About Nebraska Corn Crop Estimate Sources indicate a meeting is being held to update top USDA officials and get transparency on the issue with ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/12/2026 So Far… Ag has Not Been Shown as Contributing to Iowa's Cancer Rate PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When on a cruise-ship, passengers often greet each other with the question, "where are you from"? On the Rotterdam, off Norway in 2024, we answered such a question…" we are from Iowa". The questioner responded "ah…Caitlin Clark". My wife, who is an avid WNBA-Caitlin Clark fan, was elated that someone so far away associated Iowa with the basketball star.  Unfortunately, along with corn and hogs, that is not all that we are being associated with, since Iowa became first in the nation for states with the highest rate of cancer. No one here is surprised by that, given the likelihood of knowing so many people who are living this reality. Our cancer treatment centers are very busy. They are doing a good job as treatment which has lowered the mortality rate but that is not the explanation or solution that Iowans are looking for. In my experience cancer plagues some families and not others so there is a genetic connection. Cancer is so prevalent that many members of families know what the likely cause of their death will be. With early screening and treatment, survival rates have extended. The University of Iowa is a research hospital and has been studying many aspects of Iowa's cancer epidemic. We would all like there to be some simple explanation with a ...

10/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds, End-Users Will Signal If Corn Is Value Buy On the Grains: Corn and wheat opened lower overnight but rebounded to trade above Friday’s closing levels early this morning. Soybeans opened firmer but faded, along with soymeal, and are trading lower. Money flow will be key to price action during daytime trade as funds become more active. Do funds view Friday’s sharp price breaks as a fresh buying opportunity or do they further liquidate long positions? Friday’s lows across the grain and soy markets stand as key near-term support that bulls must defend to keep from a deeper price pullback. Funds reduced some of their length across the grain and soy markets as of Oct. 6 but were still net long a combined 881,436 futures and options contracts. Note: That figure doesn’t include the final three days last week, including Friday’s heavy selling in the corn and wheat markets. Aside from money flow, harvest activity ramped up over the past week as drier conditions were seen in the western Corn Belt. Seasonal pressure will be a headwind as new-crop bushels come to market. Note: USDA will not update harvest activity as of Sunday until Tuesday afternoon, as government offices are closed today for Columbus Day. Midweek rains are expected across the Corn Belt, which will temporarily slow harvest activity. Physical demand for U.S. ag commodities could also be key. While tariff rollbacks from China are not yet in place, more traditional buyers of U.S. corn may view Friday’s ...

Grains may have strength at the start as corn attempts a rebound that could easily falter as Monday unfolds. Heightened volatility in the energy trade likely remains wider influence along with financial market sentiment surrounding an inflation report on Wednesday. In the Headlines Grain futures may take more time to digest Friday's crop report and the bearish corn yield surprise. With most looking for a slight reduction, the corn yield rose 2.7 bushels on the month to 181.2. Soybean yield was revised higher to 53.1 for what would represent a new record. A more bullish outlook for demand absorbed the additional soybean supply and helped turn soybean futures toward a higher close. December corn dropped 20 1/2 after rebounding lightly from testing the 30-cent trading limit. President Trump announced a deal with Russia to supply diesel fuel to the U.S., contrasting with the sanctions banning Russian oil imports. Traders are watching see if Russian diesel exports now normalize after Russia had placed a ban on shipments as its refineries faced attacks from Ukraine. Some analysts were in the news questioning the agreed upon totals as being insignificant, especially compared to diesel production totals currently shutdown as a result of the conflict with Iran. Trump came out on Sunday morning with a social media post saying that there is an "ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine." The Iran-backed Houthi rebels carried out a deadly missile attack on the main airport of Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh. One American was reportedly killed. President Trump ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/09/2026 Two in a Row for Bearish Corn Supply Surprises PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The October crop reports were bearish on almost all accounts. Like the Sept. 30 grain stocks report, corn stood out for showing the biggest surprise, this time with yield jumping 2.7 bushels per acre on the month to 181.2. Most views were looks for a lower number, including with the thought that USDA should not have room to be too aggressive in either direction given the slimmer availability of samplings that could be collected from a delayed start to the Midwest harvest. As one could be suspicious of, the corn yield change was not linked to a sharp reduction of the harvested acreage percentage. Compared to the corn yield shock, it was far less surprising even that the soybean yield was taken up to what would be a new record of 53.1 bushels per acre. Also bearish was the report for wheat as exports were cut despite the higher production estimate coming into the balance sheet. Reasons for the corn yield surprise have to be surmised from the Agricultural Statistics Board Briefing slides and from the state by state changes. Part of the evidence starts with the objective yield data, including the ear count, which came down only minimally compared to recent history. There were relatively smaller percentages of samples processed in the lab for both corn and soybeans. Implications about ear ...

10/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Don’t Expect Big October Yield Changes On the Grains Corn and soybeans have firmed early this morning, while wheat futures are narrowly mixed. All three markets are trading in broad holding patterns as traders await USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. Reaction to that data will determine price moves over the final two-plus hours of trade today – and could set the near-term price trend. Historical Look at USDA’s October Yield Changes There have only been two years each in which USDA has adjusted its October corn and soybean yield estimates up or down by a bushel or more. Recent history suggests major yield changes are unlikely this month. Corn Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 2 Past 10 years (2016-24): decreased 5 years; increased 5 5-year avg. (2020-24): -0.2 bu. = 178.3 10-year avg. (2016-24): no change = 178.5 5-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 10-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 5-year biggest increase: 0.2 bu. (2021, 2024) = 178.7 10-year biggest increase: 1.9 bu. (2019) = 180.4 Soybeans Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 1; unchanged 1 Past 10 years (2016-24): decreased 5 years; increased 4; unchanged 1 5-year avg. (2020-24): -0.1 bu. = 52.7 10-year avg. (2016-24): -0.1 bu. = 52.7 5-year biggest decrease: -0.7 bu. (2022) = 52.1 10-year biggest decline: -0.7 bu. (2022) = 52.1 5-year biggest increase: 1 bu. (2021) = 53.8 10-year biggest increase: 1 bu. (2021) = 53.8 Please ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/08/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 3 of 3 The political campaign for 'Regenerative Ag' did not come from Democratic Ag Secretary candidate Chris Jones who supports it but from the GOP candidate for IA Governor, Zack Lahn, who claims to be a Regenerative Ag farmer. When he describes his farm to the public, he says that "he farms weird". I think what that means is that Lahn is walking his talk. Lahn also claims to have "Big Ag" in his sights as a villain. Politicians need to have a villain. For Chris Jones and Zack Lahn to have such similar views is a most unusual policy distribution politically.  What practices make up regenerative Ag? AI says regenerative Ag is a philosophy which in the political world becomes an ideology. AI says that…Regenerative agriculture is a holistic farming philosophy focused on restoring soil health, boosting biodiversity, and improving water retention. Rather than relying on a strict legal definition, it is defined by a core set of practices designed to work with natural ecosystems rather than against them. Sounds rather academic doesn't it as well as being rather vague. The primary practices that make up regenerative agriculture are said to include: 1. Minimal Soil Disturbance (Low- or No-Till Farming) Conventional farming relies heavily on plowing (tillage), which disrupts soil biology, accelerates erosion, and releases stored carbon into the atmosphere. (That sounds like how organic farmers farm). ...

10/08/2026 Isaias Intensifies; Calm Before USDA’s Friday Storm Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical difficulties. On the Grains: Grain and soy markets traded quietly in relatively tight ranges overnight amid a lack of fresh news. Corn and winter wheat markets modestly favored the upside, while soybeans traded mildly lower. Today’s daytime session should feature positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA crop reports. Traders are looking for a smaller corn crop estimate and little change for soybeans. Corn and wheat ending stocks are expected to increase from last month, as Sept. 1 stocks came in higher than anticipated, while soybean carryover is expected to decline slightly. Crude oil futures rose sharply overnight as Hurricane Isaias intensified and is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Offshore producers had already shut in roughly 25% of crude output and 16% of natural gas production through the region, according to the federal Marine Minerals Administration. However, forecasters are increasingly confident that the hurricane will land east of major energy assets off the coast of Louisiana and Texas, resulting in only short-term shutdowns. Heavy rains are expected along the Gulf Coast and Southeast through Sunday, putting unharvested crops at risk. Cotton with open bolls is at risk of quality damage, though historically there hasn’t been a major hit to yields from hurricane activity. Expectations For Export Sales Week Ended Oct. 1 Corn: 500,000 MT to 1.7 MMT Wheat: 200,000 to 500,000 MT Soybeans: 450,000 MT to 1.2 MMT Soymeal: -10,000 to 500,000 ...