CommStock Reports

Bids and offers on the grain futures looked like they were stacking up slightly below the Friday settlements, but traders are expected to turn friendlier if oil and the outside financial markets show any early rebound strength. Market participants have their focus on fighting in the Middle East as they digest new concerns over the global economy. In the Headlines December corn futures were up 5 1/4 cents last week. November beans were up a nickel. December Chicago wheat futures bounced 15 1/2 cents and Dec KC wheat futures were up 12 1/4 cents. October live cattle were down $3.05 on a bearish weekly reversal while Oct feeders were lower by $6.80. October lean hogs also put in a lower low after turning down from a higher high last week, dropping $2.72. Technical considerations have taken on more importance following two weeks of rebound strength that left December corn futures back above $4, November beans over $10, and Chicago wheat above $5. Looking at retracement potential, December corn could take back 38 percent of the slide down from the year's high if the contract reaches $4.28, with the 62 percent Fibonacci target just above $4.50. November beans have their 38-percent retracement level up at $10.60. That level for December Chicago wheat is $6.12. Conflict in the Middle East flared up over the weekend as Turkish President Tayyip Erdogen rallied Islamic countries to unify against Israel. The statements followed the alleged shooting of a Turkish-American woman by Israeli troops that brought Turkey closer to the ...

Private groups and individuals have been issuing fresh yield predictions that factor in everything from farmer surveys and crop scouting to satellite imagery modeling. A general consensus has formed for expecting a lower corn yield on next week's report, although the trade is not clearly convinced that the national soybean yield estimate has any room to drop. Examining the state by state yield estimates, it is seemingly easier to cut corn yields for major producers like Illinois and Iowa than it is for soybean yields. Let's start with a look at the I-states. The USDA August estimates called for record Illinois yields of 225 bushels per acre for corn and 66 bushels per acre for soybeans. Results from Illinois are heavily weighted within the national yield averages since the state is expected to harvest the most soybean acres and the second most corn acres behind Iowa. Yields for Iowa have been at 209 bpa for corn and 61 for soybeans, with Indiana at 207 bpa corn and 62 for soybeans. For corn, lowering the Illinois average by six bushels per acre still leaves a state record but would cut about one bushel per acre from the national average. Taking just two to three bushels away from Iowa would leave a state record but remove about a half of a bushel from the national. Indiana has less than half of the corn acres that Illinois and Iowa have, so it would require Indiana to lose its record yield potential and be down more ...

Fall Feeder Cattle, with the market within $3 of recent lows look to cover immediate purchasing needs at current prices.   Overnight action was very quiet as row crops push pause for a minute. We have had good action on the grains for a week now, the question remains will fund traders want to continue to lighten up on grain shorts ahead of next week's USDA report? It sure feels like one of those Fridays where we lack conviction to do much of anything. Possible “daily” black swans might be lurking in today’s export sales numbers. Trade has fairly decent numbers dialed, without confirmation of those we will be setting the stage for give ups into the weekend, which feels unlikely at this time but possible.

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Grain Setback is Healthy You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good morning as we round out this first week in September we have gained some optimism in corn and soybean prices. Since Frist Notice day lows, December corn has rallied 29 cents and November beans are up 60 cents. While what feels better, looking at the computer screen, it might not feel as good for producers in the northern belt that have watched crops go backwards. Wheat surely has been the driver as we have seen that rally almost 55 cents on the Chicago December contract, yet Paris Milling wheat has $10/mt to go yet before we hit major resistance, so is there more in the cards, I believe so. Ukraine drought conditions are expanding underpinning the market. We advised last week to put hedge orders in at $4.22 December and I would hold with that and the November Soybeans at $10.43. Cash basis, in the west, remains on fire with old crop pushes being paid west of I35 and good enough bids that are getting trucks moving from a distance. Unfortunately, for customers east of that it’s back to the store and sell the carry as the old crop stocks just won’t get moved before the harvest starts. Throw in some low water levels on the Mississippi and you have the ingredients and recipe for some very poor cash prices this fall. I ...

Headlines from Bloomberg are a little bit misleading, making vague announcements that Brazil is having its worst drought in 40 years. Brazil is still in the middle of its dry season. Other than some first crop corn, the row crop season has not yet begun. The dry weather can affect perennials crops like coffee and sugarcane, but a certain level of drought is expected each year. All of our coffee is irrigated, and my brother-in-law says he wouldn't grow coffee without it. It is way too expensive.   The weather forecast for September shows little if any precipitation in major growing regions. Mato Grosso has historically not been allowed to plant soybeans until September 16th. But this year they have reportedly pushed the date forward a week, allowing producers to begin planting by this Saturday, September 7th. Considering the dry forecast, I don't think it will make much difference. There will always be some courageous grower that will begin planting in the dry dust, waiting for it to rain. But the bulk of the planting window takes place in October. The long-term outlook does show precipitation arriving by then. This would give us an early indication that planting in the Center West region will take place on schedule but won't have an early start. I always wanted to wait until we accumulated 3 inches of rainfall on our farm before we began planting. This provided us a little bit of a buffer in case the start of the rainy season did a ...

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. Libyan Oil to Blame You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good Wednesday morning. Yesterday’s impressive run across the board was most likely funds covering after the three day weekend. The funds, USDA, and every other market analyst can tell them what they want to hear, that the soybean crop is just fine, yet large swaths have gone backwards with the limited rain.  Several Northeast Iowa farmers I talked to yesterday said that the bean crop, planted early, hoping to avoid the dryness, had small bb like beans and he was estimating harvest in just three weeks. If the Export market wants them they better get them now while the producers are convinced that the crop is made and before the combines roll. Currently, the U.S. is the place to grocery shop running a 50-60 cent discount to South America. Which brings us to the next point- USDA and CONAB are still a zip code apart on last year’s yields. While, there is nothing saying that they have to matchup, we’re selling beans cheaper than them. The truest form of stocks has always been the FOB numbers and were open for business. Rumors are circulating that another 6-9 cargos of beans will be reported today, time will tell. Fuel for the fire on ethanol. Yesterday’s July crushing report came out and 473.5 million bushels of corn were used for ethanol production in July, up from ...

In over 5 decades of farming one occurrence repeatedly observed, based upon my past experience, is if our yield was down the price went up and vice versa. If I produced 100 bpa corn and the price was $3 bushel… then if I produced 150 bpa corn the price may be $2 bushel. While the yield and price may have varied greatly, the gross dollars per acre remained relatively stable.  While I have not given up on this relationship yet for this crop…currently both my yield and the price are down, starving the gross dollars per acre. My downside risk stops at my $955 acre corn crop insurance revenue coverage so significant crop revenue insurance indemnities are likely. Yes, the yield challenge in our region (NW IA) has not been recognized by the market. I expect that yield and price are out of line and will adjust toward a more historical relationship with the coming harvest into early 2025. We swept our bins a while ago but those with old crop left in supply deficit regions, with storage available, if finances allow, could profit from holding it at this point until early in the next marketing year. After all, end-users just bought a lot of corn that they thought was cheap.   I watched a weather webinar recently put out by weather/agronomists based in IN that I believe is typical of the assumptions being made today by these analysts. All they could talk about was drought, never mentioning wet regions. They pointed ...

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. Beef Prices Tumble You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good morning and good riddance to the 23/24 marketing year. We turn the page into September and the start of harvest. Long perceived fears of basis pricing and DP pricing vs the September came and went while managing to pull the Sep/Dec spread in two cents, currently sitting at 22 cents. Why did this happen and not flush the September board like the March and July contracts did? First off, some end-users still are needing coverage to get to the fall harvest and especially in areas that have production concerns. Secondly, we have seen spot export sales that will need to be covered yet this month as well and last but not least, many DP (delayed pricing contracts) are set to expire the middle of October end-users/elevators basis is the widest giving them as cheap of ownership possible. What do we have to look forward to this harvest, while if you are sitting in an area that is tributary to the Mississippi River and the export system we have, yet again, low water to deal with this year. October basis on corn and beans could get a little sloppy with reduced drafts on barges, taking away what price advantage we have for exports vs. Brazil and other South American countries. While historically fall basis isn’t great on corn what is concerning for me are the ...

Grains are closed for Labor Day before a 7 pm central open of the Tuesday session. Corn and soybean futures will look to follow-through on a firm close last week, with the December corn starting with an immediate test at $4 and November beans right at $10. Stock futures were trading in a quiet pre-open along with the energies and metals. In the Headlines December corn futures completed a weekly reversal to finish up by 10 cents over the last five sessions. November beans rallied 27 cents to settle at $10.00 exactly. December Chicago wheat futures bounced 23 1/2 cents and Dec KC wheat futures were up 30 1/4 cents. October live cattle closed the week higher by $2.90 while Oct feeders were up $3.37. October lean hogs were up $1.65 for a third straight up-week. Labor Day in the U.S. comes as there is attention being paid to a growing labor dispute that could threaten a strike by port workers on the East Coast and along the Gulf of Mexico. The International Longshoremen's Association will meet this week to form its contract demands. Up to 25,000 union members could strike after their current employment agreement expires on September 30th. The railroad worker dispute in Canada also continues as the union appeals to the courts after the government directed the labor contract to be mediated without a strike. The Middle East plunged into further turmoil over the weekend after Hamas killed six Israeli hostages, including one Israeli-American man. Protests have erupted in Israel as ...

September corn futures entered the delivery period on Friday with a spread against the December contract that was around 24 cents, which measured well above 100 percent of any basic "fully carry" calculation. Historically wide futures spreads have specifically signaled a current lack of demand for physical delivery on the Illinois and Mississippi River, which is part of the relative weakness for basis in the Eastern Corn Belt. Compounding the basis and spread pressure, lower water levels on the Mississippi River also look threatening again for Gulf export demand after that same logistical headache was faced during the last couple of fall seasons. Basis in the West has been expected to maintain relative strength due to better competition that fuel processors there have with the feed and export sectors.   Further logistical troubles on the river system do not have to materialize for worries to remain about Gulf export demand. While low water levels on the Mississippi River and around the Panama Canal have been problematic, more grain export share has also shifted from the Gulf to the Pacific Northwest because of lost business with China being offset by gains for countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Columbia.   One alternative to the negativity dominating in the grain market right now is that Chinese purchases from the U.S. do not actually end up continuing to fall next year. The latest string of new-crop soybean orders seems to indicate China's responsiveness to price over anything, since they were spurred by the last leg lower ...

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. Cash Cattle, Drought Monitor, and Grain Technicals You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. New Corn Reco Day 3:  Adjust December corn sell offers of 10% from July 26th from $4.25 down to $4.22. New Soybean Reco Day 3:  Adjust 10% November sell orders to $10.43 or $10.61 January for producers that plan on putting beans in storage. On the Grains Overnight action is a touch better on row crops as we round out the last trading day of August. I would be lying if I said I wasn’t surprised to see the board higher yesterday and this morning ahead of First Notice Day. Most of the pricing and rolling has taken place as we only have about 7,000 contracts of September corn and just shy of 2,000 beans left to deal with. While there is little doubt in any trader's mind we have a crop, the question remains how large of a crop? A large swath of the upper Midwest needs some rain to finish the crop off. A client in NE Iowa has reported to me that he has had just over 3 inches since July 1st and I am also in the same boat needing rain to finish my beans off. We are going to call the weather a touch bullish for price action with what is happening here on top of some regions of Brazil needing some rain ahead of planting season. Yesterday’s export sales were solid, at the top ...

Every so often I get asked what I think about farmland prices. Farmland ownership works as a long-term investment. At least farmland can be physically walked upon while stock values in some instances disappear entirely. There have been better times than others for best opportunities to buy farmland but the timing for selling is most often dictated by other factors such as settling estates and alternative investments opportunities. Farms are often called family farms because families do own most of them. Our family received the state recognition for having a Century Farm at this year's Iowa State Fair. We were late in our application as my great-great grandfather bought the farm in 1896. The farm must be 40 acres or more of Iowa farmland held by decedents of the original owners. The award, given by the American Farm Bureau Federation and the Iowa Department of Agriculture, was created in 1976. 277 Century Farm awards were added in 2024 so that they now total over 21,000. They also give Heritage Farm awards to families that have owned farms 150 years. They added 162 Heritage Farm awards to a total of over 2,000. As time goes on the number of Heritage Farms eligible for the award will increase as it took time for Iowa to be settled. We hope that our Century Farm will eventually become a Heritage Farm. Our next farm that could qualify as a Century Farm would do so in 2050. The last farm that I purchased was in ...

Above you will find today's instalment of Moring Market Talk. China Absent You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. New Corn Reco Day 2:  Adjust December corn sell offers of 10% from July 26th from $4.25 down to $4.22. New Soybean Reco Day 2:  Adjust 10% November sell orders to $10.43 or $10.61 January for producers that plan on putting beans in storage. On the Grains Good morning, limited news overnight as we start the day off. Export sales start the morning and should provide direction to finish up the week. Flash sales yesterday were a good start but the market continues to look for more volume. Taking a look at the ethanol report released yesterday, with one week left in the marketing year, it appears that the USDA’s ethanol usage number will be adjust higher by 20-30 million to 5.47-5.48 billion bushels. While it’s not a huge number it is something positive. We still have yet to put harvest pressure on the board, we’re starting to get tidbits of positive news. Crumbs at best. We didn’t get to this carryout/price overnight and we won’t get out of it that quickly either, especially this late in the crop season. Here is the latest export totals just for a reminder that people will be value shopping, it just doesn’t feel that they’re ready to fill the panty yet. On the Wheat, we haven’t mentioned much about wheat lately as this is the time of the year where we struggle to get out of the ...

PLEASE REFER TO THE HEDGE AND TRADE STRATEGY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! The capital of Brazil is currently covered in a smoky fog originating from forest fires.  Forest fires in Brazil are fairly common this time of year as the dry season drags on.  Many fires are started from natural causes but some are from illegal deforestation.  They historically take place further north where there is more forest cover.  What is unusual this year is that there are a higher number of fires in the South, specifically in the state of Sao Paulo in the heart of the sugarcane production area.  Dozens of cities have been put on alert and some roads have been shut down.  One sugarcane production company reported 50,000 acres were burnt.  Another sugar mill was shut down for a couple of days as fire encroached upon their facility, but they have already returned to work.  This has sent sugar prices rallying 150 points since last Friday.  Analysts agree that while there will be some damage from fire, the yield loss from dry weather is much greater.  Brazil is the largest sugar producer and exporter by far, supplying 70% of the global sugar market.  Oddly enough, they used to intentionally burn sugarcane to replace the fields until they adopted more environmentally friendly protocols. We have received reports that some farmers are “giving back” their rental properties in Mato Grosso as they no longer have the needed cash flow.  While some producers may be locked into multi-year rental agreements, some will ...

On the Grains  Yesterday’s price action was rather surprising ahead of First Notice Day. If we can get two days in a row of a close in December corn over 390 it would be very supportive of the market. The phones were busy yesterday with a lot of the same questions, should I price or roll my September basis contacts? Let’s take a look. 

Inflation makes politicians do crazy things. That is because voters are hypersensitive to the rate of inflation blaming politicians.  I assure you that Richard Nixon was not a socialist or communist but he did attempt to use government dictates to control prices when they rose too much for his political comfort. "Nixon issued Executive Order 11615 (pursuant to the Economic Stabilization Act of 1970), imposing a 90-day freeze on wages and prices in order to counter inflation. This was the first time the U.S. government had enacted wage and price controls since World War II. At the time, the U.S. also had an unemployment rate of 6.1% (August 1971) and an inflation rate of 5.84% (1971). To combat these problems, Nixon consulted Federal Reserve chairman Arthur Burns. An import surcharge of 10 percent was set to ensure that American products would not be at a disadvantage because of the expected fluctuation in exchange rates. Politically, Nixon's actions were a great success. The American public believed the government was rescuing them from price gougers (Wikipedia)" …but otherwise economically not so much including his export embargo on soybeans. The dollar collapsed and oil priced in dollars soared. Nixon-omics had a long-lasting disruptive impact on the US economy. Then came Gerald Ford who must have had the poorest timing of any incoming president after being handed the dung sandwich of the failed Nixon economy. Or was it Jimmy Carter who when Ford failed to solve the mess was the unlucky recipient of the struggling economy. Carter didn't make it better ...

Cash Cattle and a Look at the Softs You can click the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Crop conditions came in as expected yesterday with corn at 65% G/E down just 2% from last week but up 9% from last year. While make no mistake, there is plenty of good corn, I started getting phone calls from clients that need a rain as where they planted in the wet spots are starting to show up. Moving over to soybeans 64% are rated G/E down 4% from last week and up 6% from last year. December corn grids lower this morning, down a penny at 4:30 am and while soybeans had an impressive day yesterday they’re giving back 2 cents this morning. Crop conditions will be less of the focus moving forward as traders feel confident that the crop is made. Yesterday’s sharp run-up in crude oil was attributed to tentions in the in the middle east, however OPEC+, who typically addresses production plans at the start of the new month, continue to battle production cuts amid Chineese demand concerns. However, Libya released statements yesterday moirning stating that they were shutting all oilfields down and they were haulting production and exports as tthey remain in a power struggle over control of the central bank and oil reserves.  China’s economic problems remain front and center and oil imports continue to fall off. Friday landowners got the news that the carbon pipeline has been temporarily stopped in South Dakota by the ...

This is the time of year when windshield road trips by farm fields can give deceiving perceptions of crop condition. Often, tall green corn along the road ditch shields blemishes further out in the fields. N loss, uneven stands and even potholes are masked from view. Even in 1993 there was a time in summer when crops looked better from the road so as to cause questions as to whether they were really as bad as they had looked earlier. Hope would be raised that yield expectations were too pessimistic. Then when the combines rolled, they confirmed that nothing had changed. They were terrible.   The ProFarmer crop tour confirmed that the top 2-3 tiers of Iowa counties were water damaged while very good crops existed south of Highway 20. The top 3 tiers of counties in Iowa produce 11% of the nation's corn crop so it is a key region. The damage is progressive as you travel north to south from MN into IA. Crops north of Highway 10 and west of I-35 are the worst. The 2024 corn crop has wounds that have not healed. In the extreme ECB in Ohio there is drought impacted corn that is dying and will be ready to combine by September 15th. Agronomists everywhere tell of one common crop condition and that is N deficiency from sustained waterlogged soil conditions and surface water.   I drove a loop up into MN last weekend to MNPLS and back and not even corn along the road looks good. Everything ...

Corn Markets Make New Lows You can click the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Limited action on the overnight as we start the last week of August, Friday is First Notice Day on September futures, here we go again with the basis contract that must be priced or rolled. With September to December at contract high, 23 cents carry, its lots of salt to pour into the wounds for guys that are thinking of rolling, we can probably do something in the options pit with less risk/expense if you elect to stay long. The Dollar index has put a fresh low in dating back to December of 2023, I know I have said this before, but if we can’t sell it here, where can we sell it. Last week’s flash export sales were a good start. However, we need to see those continue to give the market any sort of hope or reason to cover massive shorts. Higher crude oil overnight is even failing to support this corn market as we put new contract lows in and honestly, I don’t expect much positivity until we get past first notice day.Profarmer released its final tour results, with no surprises they came in at 181.8 bpa on corn and 54.9 bpa on beans vs the USDA at 183.1 bpa on corn and 53.2 bpa on beans. While lower than USDA on corn they only sampled the middle of the Corn Belt and the fringe will have something to ...

Grains are called slightly softer as Chicago wheat leads with a test of downside support at $5. Ag markets are likely to look for more guidance from how the energy space opens as well as how the dollar acts at the start of the week. In the Headlines December corn futures lost 1 1/2 cents last week. November beans rebounded by 16 cents. December Chicago wheat futures dropped 24 1/2 cents and Dec KC wheat futures were down 20 cents. October live cattle closed the week down $2.60 while Oct feeders were down $1.57. October lean hogs were up $5.47 for a second straight up-week. Iran-backed Hezbollah fighters attempted to launch a wide scale drone attack against Israel over the weekend, but the offensive was largely thwarted by Israel's Iron Dome air-defense system. While the development shows risk of the Middle East conflict expanding, it was also deemed by observers to be a weak response by Iran that does not diminish the potential for Israel to agree to a ceasefire with Hamas in Gaza. There is a clear political influence evident in the market following the Democratic National Convention in Chicago last week and during an accelerating window of campaigning before the November 5th elections. Cattle traders were particularly caught by the focus on Vice President Harris' mentions of price gouging and the meat industry. Speculators largely chose to liquidate on the uncertainty and were still working down from what the last trader positions report showed was still a cattle net-long of almost 41,000 ...

There has been much ado about the central bank conference in Jackson Hole this week. It is always an interesting event to think about, if largely because of many people's fondness for Wyoming and that part of the Rocky Mountains. This year's economic symposium seemingly carried higher significance because of the approaching interest rate cuts, which are left open for prediction as to how large the first cut will be and to what eventual low rates will fall.   Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered his speech to the conference on Friday morning. Stock futures and gold liked it that interest rates were trading lower before the speech, and this continued after Powell stated directly that "the time has come" for interest rates to drop, except then the dollar index broke to a new low for the year. The grains and other commodities such as crude oil took it positively that the dollar was down, but buyer enthusiasm would wane.   Focus stays on the Federal Reserve after central bank officials were recently suggested to have "encouraged" speculators to be short in the corn market. This was a paraphrased view of DTN analyst Todd Hultman by an article on the Canadian-published Western Producer news site, which was widely talked about online and brought up by clients in our individual conversations. There was no clarification about whether there was any evidence to support the Fed-influence claim or if it was simply an opinion about the hedge funds likely reading into public Fed comments and inferring ...

On the Grains Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is set to address the news media at 1 pm central, early word is that he probably won’t do too much forecasting but more outlining of what are the possible “landings”. Some have begun to worry that unemployment could rise fast enough to derail the “soft-landing.” It’s becoming more apparent daily that Ag has yet to see the soft landing, all three of the big equipment manufacturers have announced layoffs and sadly unless something changes, real quickly, its probably just the start. Also, I’m just throwing it out, I personally believe that the Commstock weekly meeting should be held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming- beats the heck out of zoom.   

It took a while but America has now come of age where there is generational wealth. Just a few hundred years ago, no one, not even the indigenous peoples of North America had a lock on the title to their lands. The waves of immigrants that arrived in America intended on establishing generational wealth by their presence. They survived hardships including wars and quickly established the legal system that embraced private ownership as the law of the land.  A 60 Minutes program caught my attention about a family, the Gardineers that was bequeathed an island in Long Island Sound by King Charles who made a deal with the Montaukett tribe in 1639 that they have managed to maintain in the family. Their ownership survived the French and Indian War, American Revolution and the War of 1812.   Not all Billionaires in the US are public figures such as Buffet, Gates and Musk. Those familiar billionaires are all present generation new money. Warren Buffett and the late Charley Munger both attributed their longevity as one of the reasons for their wealth. Both said that they benefited from having "extra innings". All old money started out once as new money. There are many billionaire families in this country that no one has heard of and they would like to keep it that way. Many of these families began accumulating wealth before and after US independence that still maintain it today generations later.   The term "1%" was coined to denote the wealthiest Americans but to be ...

On the Grains Overnight the Canadian National Railway did indeed strike and it’s estimated to cost Canada’s economy up to $250 million a day. The USDA estimates that in the first half of the year Canada’s imports amount to about $40 million a day just by rail.  

The current September – November 2024 seasonal IRI forecasts show ENSO-neutral is expected to continue in Brazil for several months.  This would indicate a below normal precipitation for Brazil's Center West growing regions heading into the early planting season next month.  Growers in Mato Grosso have been pushing for an earlier start to planting to help them get an earlier start to second crop corn.  This has worked well in previous years, but it did not work well last season.  The rainy season was slow to develop, causing drought losses of up to 10 MMT, much of which the USDA has yet to account for.  Growers may be a bit more hesitant at such an early start.  One grower said he would rather plant later, ensuring that he would have one really good soybean crop, than have two mediocre crops.   It is still early, but some farmers are known to begin planting first crop corn in RGDS by the end of the month.  The dry forecast will likely keep them from an early start.  Brazil's first crop of corn has been on a slow and steady decline since topping out in 2007/08 at 40 MMT.  CONAB's has pegged the 2023/24 first crop size at 23.4 MMT.  While its level of influence has greatly diminished compared to the second crop of corn, global export stocks are tight enough that even a 10% drop in first crop estimates like we have just seen can make a difference.  The USDA had originally expected Brazil ...