CommStock Reports

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/13/2026 Fresh Test for Chinese Trade Relations Next Week PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference. With trade between the U.S. and China an expected point of discussion, agricultural market participants wait with particular anticipation to see if the two leaders strike an agreement on lowered reciprocal tariffs. The potential for China to remove existing agricultural tariffs determines the future demand for U.S. soybean exports beyond the previous purchase commitment and shapes the competiveness of exports for other crops including corn, wheat, and cotton. While soybean export sales to China are on track to meet the standing purchase promise of 25 million metric tons, traders have expressed bearish skepticism about the demand shutting off once that total is reached. The target is double what was bought in the last marketing year, but still down considerably from over 35 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans purchased by China in 2020. Trade volume in excess of 25 million metric tons could more likely be achieved this year if a removal of tariffs makes U.S. soybean exports more attractive to private crushers in China that will otherwise buy from state-owned enterprises as well as from South America. In addition to a possible soybean tariff adjustment, traders will watch for the bullish wildcard of China announcing large purchases of another crop such as corn. Such a move ...

11/13/2026 Bearish Stretch Snapped, Price Recovery Underway Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video due to technical issues.On the Grains: Grain and soy markets traded higher overnight, led by double-digit gains in soybeans and the winter wheat markets. Soybeans have pushed to new weekly highs, while corn and wheat are still well below highs posted earlier this week. Markets are poised to snap their extended weekly losing streaks that have persisted for 10 weeks for wheat, six for corn and four for soybeans. In the aftermath of USDA’s tightening of the U.S. soybean and corn balance sheets earlier this week, demand is in greater focus. USDA announced daily soybean sales of 136,000 MT to China on Thursday and there’s chatter or more buying by China’s state-owned firms. Additional comments by China’s commerce ministry yesterday suggest China will push toward its commitment on non-soybeans agricultural purchases once tariffs are rolled back, which it encouraged as soon as possible. The clamoring for the tariff rollback to happen as soon as possible suggests the buying will be from commercial firms and not just state-owned companies. Wheat is a likely commodity China will purchase as there appears to be a need since its buyers recently booked French and Argentine cargoes. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Xi Jinping in China next week. Thursday’s threat by President Trump to “immediately” double tariffs on Mexico unless it stops large migrant caravans is seen as little more than a threat. If there’s major fallout, corn would be ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/12/2026 Years Ending in 6 are Historically the Worst in Cattle Feeding…It is 2026. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 of 2 2026 was different. First off feedlot profits had been phenomenal, setting records this cycle but so has the dramatic swing in feedlot margins resulted in a record $850 head decline (high to low) from peak profitably to recent market lows. Feedlots recorded some record market loses of $340 head. Now let's look at the recent record from Farmdocdaily on net profitability of feeding steers specifically in Kansas since the 2016 cycle low: There is a lot of red on that chart. Iowa was marginally better. I have been told that bedded barns in Iowa have a $30-$35 head cost-of-gain advantage over an open pen in KS. The barns improve feedlot performance in the heat of the summer. Looking back at 2016 there was a lot of red. Someone has calculated that over the course of periods of time that feeding cattle had been a net breakeven exercise. There were a number of years when closeouts swung from $50 head profits to $50 head losses. What changed in part was the industry becoming more integrated resulting in divergent levels of revenue within the industry. Some mega-feedlots aligned with packers over others who were not. The larger feedlots had the leverage to negotiate sweetheart deals that gave them an advantage over others. Grids became a means to justify ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/11/2026 Years Ending in 6 are Historically the Worst in Cattle Feeding…It is 2026. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 During the Covid episode, beef packers needed dump-trucks to haul windfall profits to the bank as curtailed kills depressed cattle prices and inflated beef prices. Feedlot losses and drought ganged up on producers pausing any action toward expanding the herd in this cycle. The money trucks then went into reverse causing packers to recoil from losses caused by shrinking fed cattle numbers while ranchers are gaining a historical period of profitability. This chart above is generally how a cattle cycle works but there is more to it than changing supply. The cattle market is connected at the hip to the wealthiest demographic of Americans for which steak has always been a part of their diets. They economize by eating smaller portions. That comes with age as well. Demand is also a part of the cattle cycle and what we learned in this is how resilient and elastic beef demand actually is to higher prices. There is a difference between complaining about higher prices and boycotting purchases. The beef market has provoked complaint but not rejection. There are three primary financial entities that make up the cattle industry…ranchers, feedlots and packers. Maybe I should have added a fourth…bankers. Historically, you could track where we were at in the cattle cycle by when bankers freely loan money to buy ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/11/2026 New Reco #1 Day 2: Sell back our $4.50 Dec puts for 5 cents or better.  New Reco #2 Day 2: On 40% of expected production, buy the March $4.65 calls and Sell $4.40 March puts for net cost of 10 cents or better. (Taking into consideration the 5 cents we pick up in the value of those puts, the cost of Recco #2 would be less than a nickel). *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Focus Shifts To Demand, South American Weather A Salute To All Veterans Government offices are closed today in observance of Veterans Day. Markets will trade normal schedules. CommStock salutes all of those who served/are serving and those that lost loved ones serving our great country. On the Grains Corn and soybeans pulled back from Tuesday’s strong gains overnight amid profit-taking. Wheat futures mildly extended above yesterday’s highs as traders covered short positions amid ongoing geopolitical turmoil. A Ukrainian drone attack overnight set the Ust-Luga port, one of Russia’s biggest Baltic commodity-export hubs, ablaze overnight. The attacks came ahead of the second day of peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Since late August, grain/oilseed shipments from Ust-Luga have surged 606% from the first seven months of the year. While weekly shipments only averaged 135,649 MT during that ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/10/2026 WASDE REPORT BULLISH PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update F12Recco #1: Sell back our $4.50 Dec puts for 5 cents or better.  Recco #2: On 40% of expected production, buy the March $4.65 calls and Sell $4.40 March puts for net cost of 10 cents or better.  (Taking into consideration the 5 cents we pick up in the value of those puts, the cost of Recco #2 would be less than a nickel). Farmers looking for a strong signal that the harvest lows are in, got what they wished for today.  The corn market had given up nearly $1/bu the past six weeks, after last month’s bearish surprise sending yield estimates higher.  It appears they overcorrected last month when they added 2.7 bpa to the national yield.  They attempted to course correct in the November WASDE by trimming yield 1.6 bpa bringing the national yield down to 179.6 bpa.  Despite decreasing exports and feed usage, ending stocks still fell to an estimated 1.758 billion bushels.  While not as low as September projections, it is a step in the right direction.  By overstating the yields last month, it conveniently allowed end users the opportunity to buy at much lower prices right at the cusp of harvest. For those that have been following along, CommStock's official corn yield estimate (produced by Brian Grete) has been pegged at 179.3 bpa for a couple of months. That means the November report estimate of ...

11/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Just Need No Bearish Surprise to Start Price Recovery On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets traded higher on light corrective buying overnight as traders await USDA’s November crop reports at 11 a.m. CT. After last month’s shocking jump in corn yield and production estimates, there’s some trepidation ahead of the reports. But after two-plus months of heavy fund selling and price pressure, anything shy of a bearish surprise in the data could be all that’s needed for corn and soybeans to secure seasonal lows and start a price recovery. Traders are also monitoring the peace talks in Abu Dhabi between the U.S., Russia and Ukraine. As the first peace talks got underway, Russia attacked energy infrastructure in eight Ukrainian regions, raising concerns about Moscow’s commitment and sincerity to the peace talks. Following are pre-report expectations from a Reuters survey of analysts. Note: There continues to be a huge range of nearly 10 bu. for corn yield. If you throw out the two outliers, the range tightens to 2 bu. and the average estimate would increase to 180.6 bu. per acre, which is the median estimate. The median yield for soybeans is 53.4 bu. per acre. USDA’s November Yield Changes: A Recent Historical Look On average, USDA doesn’t make major changes to yields in November, especially for corn. But there have been some years with outsized yield adjustments. Note: USDA did not release its October crop reports in 2025 due to the government shutdown, ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/09/2026 Big USDA Report Tomorrow PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update StoneX Yield estimates are the top of the range for both corn at 183.1 bpa and soybeans at 55 bpa. If I disagreed with them… I would tell you. I don't. November WASDE Estimates  StoneX Corn Estimates (2026/27) Yield: 183.1 bushels per acre (up 1 bpa from StoneX's previous forecast and above the USDA's 181.2 bpa estimate) Total Production: 16.2 billion bushels (above the USDA's forecast of 16.03 billion) Ending Stocks / Carryout: Projected around 1.920 billion bushels (higher than the trade average estimate of 1.840 billion bushels) StoneX Soybean Estimates (2026/27) Yield: 55.0 bushels per acre (up from previous forecasts and higher than the USDA's 53.1 bpa estimate) Total Production: 4.725 billion bushels (approx. 128.6 million tons) Ending Stocks / Carryout: Projected around 363 million bushels I have been forecasting a record 2026 yield for soybeans since they were planted last spring. As I look at the trendline yield for soybeans, that should be near 54 bpa. StoneX, at 55 bpa, fits my direction. Soybean yields in MN, IA and WI were 5-15 bpa above APHs. As I have tried to pound in… the two things that mean most to our production are subsoil moisture levels and planting date. Early planted crops yield higher. They are tough to kill. 2026 was the earliest soybeans were planted here on record. Ours made near 80 bpa, which for us was a ...

11/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds’ Least Bullish Grain/Soy Position Since June On the Grains: Corn and soybean futures mildly favored the upside overnight. Wheat markets struggled to find buyers overnight, though they held above last week’s lows. The key market event this week will be USDA’s November crop reports on Tuesday. Typically by November most of the focus has started shifting from U.S. crop size and yield to demand – and South American production. After the shocking corn yield increase in October, however, there’s a level of supply uncertainty ahead of USDA’s Nov. 10 reports. Note: Funds will go into the reports with their least bullish stance in months, with the combined net long in grain and soy markets down to just 205,332 futures contracts; only 156,761 for futures and options combined. Funds have built a sizable net short position in the wheat markets. They were still long 8,795 corn futures, though it was a net short of 22,900 contracts when including options. That’s the first net short stance in corn since June. They remained long the soy complex, though that positions have been dramatically reduced. Following are pre-report expectations from a Reuters survey of analysts. Note: There continues to be a huge range of nearly 10 bu. for corn yield. If you throw out the two outliers, the range tightens to 2 bu. and the average estimate would increase to 180.6 bu. per acre. Rains Remain Scattered in Dry Areas of Brazil Central Brazil received some rains during the weekend, with more ...

Grains have potential for follow-through higher behind positive Friday settlements for corn and soybean futures. Traders will remain tentative amid heightened outside market volatility and ahead of the Tuesday crop report. In the Headlines Thursday's stock market slump was noted for erasing $2.5 trillion of value from the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Investors expressed worry that new Democratic governors and lawmakers would block the construction of data centers. That concern was fueled in part by comments from the governor elect in Texas that promised a moratorium on new data center approvals, although she has indicated that already permitted projects will be allowed to continue. The Nasdaq rebounded on Friday but still finished lower for a fourth straight week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Friday had a video call with the Chinese Vice Premier in charge of trade talks, with the two U.S. officials explicitly asking for follow-through on China's prior commitments to open the market for rare earth minerals and meet its targets for agricultural purchases. Talks are increasing again in preparation for President Trump's next meeting with Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific economic conference in China on November 18 and 19. There were fresh reports that Trump and Xi may also meet with Vladimir Putin at the APEC conference to discuss the war in Ukraine. The United Arab Emirates hosts trilateral peace talks among officials from the U.S., Russia, and Ukraine this week. Ukraine's President Zelensky accused Russia of purposely launching widespread attacks ahead of the meetings. Up to ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/06/2026 The Major Caveat for a Winter Bull Market PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Thursday's market was an example of the trade turning into sell-almost-everything mode, triggered by an avalanche in stocks that gave up everything earned from the post-election rally and then some. Investors hit the exits on tech shares, especially the names connected to artificial intelligence/data centers/computer chips, which pulled the Nasdaq index down by a whopping 5 percent. The Dow Jones had a rare outside day down that reversed a gain of more than 1,500 points from the prior session. Money that escaped the stock market had to go somewhere; aside from pure cash, there were safe-haven bids supporting Treasuries and gold. The broader bearishness kept traders wary to buy into grains and it weighed directly on the livestock at a time when both grains and livestock futures could have otherwise advanced toward turning up out of lows. For sentiment to stay risk-off after the stock market enters correction territory is a primary roadblock to a bullish winter turnaround in commodities. For episodes of fear to turn out quick and temporary would instead justify patience against panic selling while also offering opportunities for re-owning upside exposure to commodities including grains and livestock. Hedge funds can still flip bearish against grains, but they have already gone a long way in pressuring the market with liquidation of their record net-long positions. Potentially negative still in the ...

11/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Extend Weekly String of Losses Awaiting Bullish Catalyst On the Grains: Wheat futures declined overnight, with the winter wheat markets marking for-the-move lows. Wheat markets have declined for 10 straight weeks. Corn and soybeans pivoted quietly around unchanged. Corn futures have declined for six straight weeks, while the string of losses will be four for soybeans. While price action and market attitudes are dour, traders may cover some short positions ahead of the weekend as they start to square positions ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA November crop reports. The search continues for a bullish catalyst that’s needed to put in lows and start working higher. Aside from pre-report positioning, grain traders will be looking for further value buying by global end-users. Thursday’s weekly export sales data showed signs that is picking up, as have daily sales announcements, though more is needed to convince traders prices are low enough. There’s also more attention on Brazilian weather with conditions expected to start trending warmer and drier in central Brazil, along with northern production areas that are already facing those conditions. Outside market focus will be on the stock market after volatile trade the past two days post-election. October employment data later this morning is expected to show a rise in non-farm payrolls to around 60,000 after September’s disappointing results. Global Food Prices Fall for First Time Since June The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index fell 1.2% in October amid declines for grains, dairy and meats, which ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/05/2026 Iowa First and America First Should Be The Same Thing! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Iowa election results were not complicated. The Blue Wave resulted from the fact that the GOP Congress failed to check and balance the executive branch. It did not matter that the president was a republican, the GOP Congress still had a job to do and failed. The GOP Congress stopped functioning as a legislative branch of government.  My worry was that Mike Naig, the Iowa GOP Secretary of Ag, who has performed well and deserved another term, would get taken under by the wave. The Secretary of Ag race was closer than it ought to have been, but Naig survived. I will spare you the long version of why the GOP Congress failed and give one example. Iowa had 4 GOP US Congressman, one of which was Hinson. I had even voted for my GOP congressman. I went to Washington to lobby for 45Z and E-15 as a member of the Carbon board. My tolerance for the failure to approve year-around E-15 had long run out. Trump expressed support for E-15 while letting Congress kill it. With a 4-vote GOP majority in the House at best, Iowa’s 4 congressman were key to anything the GOP passed. They never made E-15 a requirement for their vote. They failed us for their party. Same story in the Senate. There is ‘Iowa First’ ...

11/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Tide May Be Turning On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher amid corrective buying overnight. Meal futures also firmed on corrective buying, while soyoil extended its price slide. A test of the overnight strength will come during daytime trade when funds, who have been active sellers since early September, will be more active. Funds have amassed a sizable short position in the wheat markets, while they’ve gotten out of their length in corn and shed most of their long positions in soybeans and meal. Sentiment is highly bearish and the boat is leaning heavily in one direction. This is very similar to what happened with funds in June as they piled into the short side of grain and soy markets before flipping to aggressive buyers and eventually building a record combined net long position in grain and soy markets in early September. Bottoming action in June lasted for weeks and required a bullish catalyst – weather – to flip the switch from sell to buy for funds. There’s no guarantee the pattern will repeat itself, but there are definitely some similarities. Weather could again be a bullish catalyst, though demand seems more likely as signs of value buying by global end-users have recently surfaced. USDA’s November Crop Reports next Tuesday could be another catalyst – even if it’s nothing more than the data not containing a bearish surprise. And Super El Nino lingers, which could create issues in Brazil, though that hasn’t been ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/04/2026 Who Produces It Cheaper? Brazil or USA? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Our harvest is making progress, but at our current rate, we will finish about two weeks later than last year. Corn yields appear good, which is the most important. The farm we are in now is roughly 20% above APH. While we do not expect to beat last season's overall farm yield record, we have individual fields that will. The July heat robbed us of yield by as much as 10% - 20%. But 20% of what? Chopping 20% off of 300 bpa yield potential is still a good yield. I had a college professor that used to say everyone in class started the semester with an A. It was what you did (or didn't do) that determined if you were able to keep it. Modern seed genetics have 300+ bpa potential. Or rather in theory, that is the yield you start the season with. Both weather and crop management than determine form there how much of that we get to keep. Moisture levels in corn appear to be in no hurry to come down despite a warm finish to the month of October. Additional rain will keep us out of the field this week, but next week shows clear skies which should give growers enough time to finish. Basis levels have been strengthening modestly as we reach the back half of harvest. End-users ...

11/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Blue Wave for Elections, Red Wave for Grains On the Grains: Democrats captured control of the Senate and House as a blue wave surged across the country during Tuesday’s midterm elections. Democrats flipped Senate seats in Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina and numerous seats in the House. Global markets responded with stocks rallying, while bond yields and the U.S. dollar retreated.Meanwhile, the red wave of price losses continued in the grain markets. Soybeans plunged to their lowest level since mid-August, with the January contract probing $12. December corn futures extended to the lowest level since July 1, probing the $4.40 level. Wheat markets made for-the-move lows before modestly rebounding from those levels. The latest fundamental headwinds are coming from the StoneX yield estimates, which pegged corn at 183.1 bu. and soybeans at 55.0 bu. per acre this month. The StoneX production forecasts are 16.203 billion bu. for corn and 4.725 billion bu. for soybeans. If StoneX is correct, that's more bushels that need to be chewed through via increased demand. The way to encourage more usage is through lower prices. Regarding Tuesday’s elections, Washington policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer said: “For agriculture, with both chambers flipping, the Farm Bill 2.0, additional farmer and ag disaster aid, FY 2027 appropriations and any further tariff-related farm aid will be more challenging. President Trump’s final two years shift from one-party control to negotiation. USDA and trade nominees face a tougher confirmation path.” More Corn Value Buying, ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/03/2026 Lame Duck or Dead Duck Congress? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A friend of mine told me last week that he pulled money from the stock market, having become worried about the repercussions of the mid-term elections with so many ominous threats lying in wait for them to be over. These risks include a resumption of the military conflict in the war with Iran, Russian desperation intensifying the war in Ukraine overseas along with domestic risks that ICE will come out of its cold-box, hot after immigrants, and of course how the election, is or is not, settled will test us. A lot is being made of expected democratic successes in today’s mid-term elections under the illusion that… that outcome will improve overall governance by a significant amount. President Trump will never conform to traditional expectations of lame duck status. Lame duck Congresses are often quite productive in enacting legislation as the political tentacles loosen. That still requires cooperation with the administration and Trump has not been in a cooperative mood. As to the new Congress, while the democrats may win what appears to be a majority in the US House and Senate in electoral totals, they have to seat their winners to become office holders. After that, they have to legislate an agenda and get it past a presidential veto. If Congress does pass good legislation that has strong public support and Trump does veto ...

11/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Value Buying Confirmed; Corn Market Wants More Proof On the Grains Corn and wheat futures mildly favored the downside overnight, while soybeans traded slightly higher amid modest corrective buying. The general marketplace remains cautious awaiting results of today’s midterm elections. December corn futures dropped to a for-the-move low, despite the ninth largest daily sale on record of 1.730 MMT to Mexico on Monday – 1.135 MMT for 2026-27 and 594,630 MT for 2027-28. While that signaled the top buyer of U.S. corn sees value on the sharp price break, traders apparently want more proof. USDA reported soybean crush slowed more than anticipated to 198.8 million bu. in September. That was down 5.2% from August and 3.0% from year-ago, though the slowdown was due to crush plants not having enough supplies, not a lack of demand. September corn-for-ethanol use totaled 438.4 million bu., down 8.5% from the previous month but up 0.6% from last year. Harvest delays in the western and northern Corn Belt limited new-crop corn deliveries to ethanol plants. Corn Harvest Remains Behind, Soybean Harvest Stays Ahead USDA reported corn harvest advanced 16 percentage points to 74%, though that was still three points behind average. Harvest is the most behind in Iowa (13 points), South Dakota (12 points), Michigan (11 points), Nebraska (9 points) and Ohio (7 points). Minnesota and Kansas are also running behind normal though just marginally. Soybean harvest advanced nine points to 88%, four points ahead of average. Harvest is behind the average pace only in ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/02/2026 I Had to Get This Said So Here It Is… "Shit happens!" PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Getting the crop out is only half the job for livestock farmers at harvest. Once the grain is in the bin, they have corn stalks to harvest, used as livestock bedding or stover for cows, which is hard to get done under wet conditions when it keeps raining. After the soybeans are harvested or after the stalks are removed from corn fields, then feedlots scurry to empty manure pits and or spread stockpiled manure. What can we push back on "Big Ag" with? … as the politicians in both parties have now joined the chorus on campaigning …well, manure replaces commercial fertilizer. That is the best way to reduce dependency on fertilizer companies. With so many manure applications running in a short season, accidents will happen. When they do, we are sure to hear about it in the Des Moines Register or Iowa Capital Dispatch. They think that it validates their anti-CAFO argument. My response is that "Shit happens!". Nobody does anything without an accident once in a while and as a general statement livestock operations do a great job of getting the manure applied in a competent professional manner. The DNR reported two instances in Crawford and Davis counties where manure spilled from transport tankers, one of which had rolled down an embankment and spilled into a ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Turn Off The Fund Spigot On the Grains Corn and wheat futures mildly traded higher overnight amid corrective buying. Soybeans pivoted around unchanged with a modest downside bias. Money flow will be the critical factor as markets start a new month. Bulls need a spark from demand, South American weather or some other source to reignite buyer interest after aggressive selloffs the past two months. The fund purge continued across the grain and soy markets, with the combined net long position for futures and options falling below 400,000 contracts as of Oct. 27 – 40% of the record length they held in early September. Funds are short all three wheat markets and clinging to a net long position in corn. Funds are still solidly long soybeans and soymeal, though those positions have also been greatly reduced from their early September peaks. If the fund selloff continues, soybeans and meal are most at risk. Widespread rains are forecast for central and southern Brazil over the next week, with the wettest conditions in far eastern and south-central production areas. The rains will slow soybean planting in these regions. Rains will help promote more rapid planting in other areas of the country where some farmers have been waiting on wetter weather. While there are areas where soils are saturated and others that are too dry, traders deem Brazilian weather as generally favorable to start the growing season. Unless that shifts and ...

Grains stand to rebound while markets find relative stability ahead of the elections. Crude oil remains the main guide for commodities as it reflects risks around war and inflation. In the Headlines The last trading session of October was marked by a substantial stock market selloff, triggered in part by concerning financial guidance from Intel that cut the tech company's share prices by 28 percent on the day. Broad pressure against the artificial intelligence sector came amid worries about rising interest rates and with the backdrop of uncertainty about this week's elections. The central bank kept its main lending rate unchanged on Wednesday, although the decision was not unanimous and the meeting was then followed up with a strong GDP report and a still-hot inflation reading. This week features Tuesday's midterm elections and Friday's jobs report. Along the way will be earnings reports from companies including Apple, McDonald's, and Toyota. "Indirect talks" continued between the U.S. and Iran as officials from both sides met with mediators from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, President Trump suggested there were still a few more targets to address involving Iran's nuclear capabilities, while Iran threatened "devastating strikes" if the U.S. resumes attacks. Reports of U.S. armaments being rebuilt in the region raised the odds of new offensive operations starting up after election day. Traders are pricing in the potential for heighted volatility through the elections. The stock market's volatility index (VIX) on Friday reached its highest level since April. More eyes are on the event-contract platforms ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/30/2026 New Highs for Crude Oil, Lows for Metals PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update See gold and silver for leading the negative reactions to a tighter money outlook that were reinforced by Friday's crude oil rally. Hurting most other commodities, crude oil connected to a corresponding move up in soybean oil futures, allowing the soy complex to buoy the grain space. It helped soybeans that only one November soybean contract was issued for delivery on first notice day and it found a stopper. Nobody expected heavy delivery pressure in a carry market with strong enough basis as there were not going to be a lot of commercial traders willing to let go of the physical soybean supply they may own. There can relatedly be seasonal soybean price strength associated with the passing of first notice day for November futures because it marks the end of the most active selling period for farmers delivering on the new harvest, whether across the scale or against previously opened HTA's and basis contracts. Taking it back to the wider financial market influence, the direction of soybean futures now becomes less sensitive to harvest pressure and more dependent on whether speculators choose to defend and rebuild long positions in the January and March contracts. The Federal Reserve Bank left interest rates unchanged at its October meeting, but stronger than expected economic growth and persistent inflation stoked concern over tight monetary policy being ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Chinese Wheat Rumor, Month-End Trade Tricks Or Treats? On the Grains Corn and soybeans modestly favored the downside in light, two-sided trade overnight. Both markets are holding above Thursday’s for-the-move lows as they try to stabilize after sharp price declines. December corn futures are poised for a fifth straight weekly decline and losses in seven of the last eight weeks. January soybeans are lower for a third straight week. Wheat futures mildly favored the upside overnight, led by nearby SRW contracts, amid China’s purchase inquiries. China’s state-owned Cofco was reportedly seeking offers for U.S. SRW shipments, which pulled wheat off its lows yesterday. Wheat is one of the commodities we anticipate China will buy as part of its commitment to purchase $17 billion – the 2026 level will be prorated to an unspecified amount – in U.S. ag goods aside from soybeans, as its crop faced both drought and flooding issues this year. Until tariffs are rolled back, purchases will be made by state-owned firms, which gives the Cofco talk some validity, though confirmation of purchases is needed to trigger more than modest corrective buying in futures. December SRW futures have worked off this week’s lows but are still in line for the ninth straight weekly decline. Month-end trade could lead to some short-covering in the grain and soy markets today. But month-end results haven’t been overly price-supportive this year. During the first nine months of the year, ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/29/2026 Where the Money Is Now and What Happens to it Next PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Baby Boomer generation includes individuals born between 1946 and 1964, following the end of World War II. Key Facts and Demographics from Google: Birth Years: 1946–1964 (the oldest members turn 80 in 2026) Population Size: Around 76 million babies were born in the U.S. during this period, with roughly 67 million surviving into recent years. Sub-groups: Often divided into early/older boomers (1946–1955) and late boomers/Generation Jones (1956–1964). Economic Position: Driven by post-WWII economic growth, the G.I. Bill, and rising asset values, older Americans (75 and older, largely comprising early boomers) hold a significant share of national wealth. Born in 1952, my wife and I are both early/older baby boomers. My brother is 7 years younger so is in the late boomer generation sub-group. He retired last month so officially joined the ranks. There are many businesses and industries that cater to meeting the needs of the baby boomers. One is the Holland America cruise line. On our recent trip up the St Lawrence into Canada, passengers were dominantly white hair boomers and older. The only young people were caretaking their parents. Carnival Cruise line in the Caribbean would have an entirely different demographic for its passengers and targeted customers… lots of noisy parents and children. Many in the silent generation (1928-1945), ages 81-98, are still alive and don't get talked about ...

10/29/2026 Bulls Searching for Anything to Stem the Tide Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning market talk this morning. On the Grains: Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight after closing at a new for-the-move low on Wednesday. January futures touched their lowest level since Aug. 19 overnight. The next band of support starts at the May high of $12.25 1/4. Corn and wheat markets pivoted narrowly around unchanged overnight, while holding above their recent lows. Grain and soy markets remain in liquidation mode as bulls seek something to stem the tide. The data point of interest today will be export sales for the week ended Oct. 22. Soybean sales will be big due to daily sales to China during the reporting week. Traders will focus on soybean demand aside from China – and unknown destinations, which are assumed to be China. Corn sales are expected to top 1 MMT. Traders are looking for signs from global end-users that prices have fallen to value levels. Corn export sales are lagging, especially to top buyer Mexico. For wheat, major Black Sea shipping disruptions haven’t translated into increased demand for U.S. supplies, with export commitments running well behind year-ago and the five-year average. Following are the pre-report expectations. Corn: 1.0 MMT to 1.6 MMT Wheat: 200,000 to 500,000 MT Soybeans: 1.3 MMT to 2.8 MMT Soymeal: 200,000 to 450,000 MT Soyoil: 0 to 10,000 MT Other developments: Russian authorities are allowing grain vessels to depart from the Azov Sea for the first time since July. Ships will be allowed to sail through mid-November ...