CommStock Reports

Grains are called a couple cents lower on more tariff negativity and with help from a mostly favorable forecast for this week. In the Headlines Leading the weekend's headlines was that President Trump announced a 30 percent tariff for both Mexico and the European Union. The notifications came in the form of letters that were similarly sent to about two dozen other countries over the course of last week. Like for the countries, Mexico and the EU will have until August 1st to possibly negotiate a deal. Mexico is a top-five buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, beef and pork. Spain leads the European nations as the fifth largest buyer of U.S. corn this year. Government accountants tallied up higher tariff revenues in June, with the import duty collections helping swing the federal budget into surplus for the month. The year-to-date deficit was still $1.34 trillion to add to the running government debt total of about $36.6 trillion. Interest on the debt is projected at $1.2 trillion for the current fiscal year. President Trump mentioned the exorbitant financing costs in social media posts last week when he referred to Fed Chair Jerome Powell as "Too Late" for waiting so long on reducing interest rates. Trump said "our Fed Rate is AT LEAST 3 points too high." The Iran-backed Houthi rebels resumed attacks on ships transiting the Red Sea last week. One Liberian-flagged vessel targeted by a drone was carrying U.S. sorghum that had been loaded in Houston, Texas. Another ship was sunk by an ...

Coming into today's report, only minor changes were expected for U.S. corn and soybean balance sheets. New numbers from the June 20 stocks and acreage reports would be accounted for along with any adjustments to old-crop usage. Bigger changes were possible for wheat since the crop production review includes fresh surveying of winter wheat yields. There was extra attention this month on what revision would be found for South American crops, especially after the latest CONAB report pulled Brazil's corn and soybean estimates above the USDA's June report predictions.   Up another 100 million bushels from last month, the old-crop corn export estimate was taken to 2.75 billion bushels, or 25 percent higher than the USDA's first prediction made last May. The corn usage gain was mostly offset by a 75 million bushel reduction against the feed and residual component. As expected, no changes were made to the 181 trend-line yield, but the lower than expected harvested acreage estimate from June 30 was factored in to remove 115 million bushels from the production estimate. A small cut to the new-crop feed and residual made it look like the USDA was reluctant to allow a bullish overall cut to corn carryout, which ended up declining from 1.75 to 1.66 billion bushels. The only other major item for corn was that Brazil's corn production estimate was raised from 130 to 132 million metric tons.   For the U.S. soybean balance sheet, old-crop exports were raised 15 million bushels, but they took that same amount out of ...

On the Grains CONAB raised its crop production estimates to 132 MMT, up from the previous report of 128.3 MMT, driven by stronger Safrinha yields. USDA currently has Brazil at 130 while private forecasters have issued numbers as high as 134-140. On soybeans, CONAB maintained its soybean estimate of 169.5 MTM, a 14.7% increase over last year’s crop. The USDA is still at 169 MMT, only 9.4% higher than the previous year's USDA Brazil yield of 154.5 MMT. We have received numerous phone calls, particularly last year, regarding the anticipated collaboration between the USDA and CONAB on total production. They have kicked it down the line to this year to match CONAB, so in essence, the USDA is saying the crop is smaller this year than what CONAB is saying, as those stocks from last year need to be accounted for.

Corn and Soybean yield prospects have never looked much better nationwide in July than today but can we produce ourselves to a profitable margin? 250 bpa corn at $4 bushel is $1000 acre which for most is near breakeven. Hard to live off of breakeven. Farmers are always reluctant to take either yield or price for granted. Corn and soybean technical price outlooks are grim…if production is high and demand is not because of dysfunctional export markets. The technical analysis suggests that the corn and soybean markets will take out August 2024 lows 385/945 before this bear market can finish. Thus, potential exists to lose a lot of money. Many farmers were expecting short-term pain from President Trump's trade war but got a payoff longer term. The pain is here and how far away the long-term gain is, if any, no one knows. Some may not survive that long. I think that countries will commit to US Ag purchases in trade deals but these deals are being forced on our trading partners which will cause them to chafe. They are not willing to be happy customers and do not trust us (and why should they?). Trade deals appear to have a short shelf life. What is touted as "the best deal ever" gets ditched for new negotiations a couple years later which doesn't fit investment return horizons. This president always wants something better than what he has got (like his new airplane) and there is not a good history of ...

On the Grains While CONAB will undoubtedly release its updates today, which will be closely watched by the market, the biggest story is the Mexican border being closed again due to the New World screwworm advancing north as far as Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, which is 160 miles north of where the sterile flies have been released. The most important part of this is to keep them out of the US. Look for cattle futures to react sharply on the open. I know this is not the cattle section, but it is the biggest Ag story of the day and will affect feed demand. 24/25 feed demand has been the anchor to the positive export news that we have had all year. The USDA will release the WASDE report tomorrow. Typically, in a year when ending stocks are this tight, at 1.365 billion bushels, we would have seen some summer rally. However, the funds have managed to keep a lid on this market, offering only limited sales of old crop corn at $5.00 (which was months ago). So, what is the cause? First, we cast a negative light on this corn market with the announcement of tariffs last March. All eyes have been on China, and the rhetoric revolves around how China isn’t in the marketplace for corn. Yet, that market share has been decreasing steadily since 2021-2022, when they purchased 19.3 million metric tons (MMT), down to 3.4 MMT in 2023/2024. They were never expected to be long-term customers of corn. ...

I got a decent crop tour of Western Iowa over the weekend.  I tried hard to find a "bad" looking corn field, but was unsuccessful.  I did not traverse the whole state but what I saw was one of the best-looking corn crops I have seen in recent memory.  We are well enough into July to be able to get an accurate weather forecast to the end of the month.  Weather threats continue to be limited.  There is arguably another 5 critical weeks to the growing season that we need to get past, and the forecast for the next three weeks looks decent.  As half of the US corn crop will be pollinated by mid-July, we should be able to get past the peak pollination window without any issue.  Moisture demand is increasing, however.  We got an inch over the weekend and sprayers were already out in full force within 48 hours.  That surprised me how quickly things dried out, so the crop is using it up.   As we are roughly half-way through the growing season, total rainfall up until this point has been mostly positive with a few weak spots.  The northern half of Illinois and Indiana have gotten below average precipitation.  The closer you get to Chicago, the drier it has been.  Some of those areas really need a shot of rain but the forecasts are somewhat inconclusive.  Weather models do not agree with one another.  I imagine some of those areas may get an inch, which will likely ...

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Corn Continues Lower You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains It feels like anybody on the long side of this market is just waiting for ICE to come and deport you. CBOT took out the December low that we forged last week, now eyeing up the gap on the continuation chart at $3.94. All that comes to mind is, “Go ahead, make my day.” We have discussed the topic of exports, usage, and crop conditions in depth. Yet, we still have the July/Sep corn spread trading at a 15-cent inverse, indicating that there is still demand on the IWDS. Flash sales of 144,000 MT of soybean meal to the Philippines were reported yesterday, with 97,000 MT allocated for 24/25 and 47,000 MT for 25/26. This was followed by the sale of 112,776 MT of corn for 25/26 to Mexico. Now, returning to the old crop corn, we have been shipping a substantial amount of corn. However, with IMEA in Mato Grosso raising its yield forecast by 3.6 MMT to 54 MMT (47 MMT last year) and the southern harvest less than 30-45 days away, as 4% of Louisiana's corn has matured, we could finally see the glut of corn competing for business. If I were on the river and had corn that was about to be ready for shipping, I’d be taking a look at the basis and getting something done sooner rather than later. Moving ...

President Trump is a political force that cannot be reckoned with. It is getting to be so that almost no one even tries. Few individuals, including billionaires, or Fed Chairman who cannot be fired without cause, have ever successfully stood up against him and survived. He demanded a budget that had what he wanted in it (tax cuts) and could have cared less about anything else (debt reduction). His party in Congress got the thing passed. He called it a Big Beautiful Bill even if it was made the old fashion way like smelly sausage. Most of the legislators who finally voted for it, did not want to but could not stand up to the intimidation. For all the bold statements made about their fiscal integrity and such, they got nothing real to show for it. They keep spending and the debt increases. The only change is what they spend it on. It takes a big Medicaid cut to pay for his expansion of ICE. If you happen to luckily favor what he was demanding or somehow could negotiate some minor deal as anesthetic to what you didn't that hurts you, you have to take that as a win.   There were a few winners for me in the BBB. I said that one reason that the election outcome was in some way a relief to me last fall was that I believed that the GOP would fix the estate tax provision and they did. It is now $15 mln per individual, ...

On the Grains When we consider structural support, it relies on the I-beam that carries the load, much like the corn market dominated by the I-states that produce most of the crop ~38% of total production. Last night's crop conditions report showed Iowa and Indiana up 1%, while Illinois was down 3%. The CBOT was quick to shed the premiums it added last week, as traders have grown tired of the same two stories: export demand and lack of trade deals. Crop conditions released yesterday at 3 pm had corn at 74% G/E, the highest in 7 years.

I watched the 'live feed' of the Presidents America 250 event at the Iowa State fairgrounds. I would not really call it a historical "presidential" address but there were some things in it and other things left out that we need to note. First off, it was hot out, over 90^ earlier in the afternoon cooling to 86^ when he was speaking. His collar was tight wearing a tie with his sport coat and hat on. Everyone else there was wearing short-sleeved t-shirts and shorts. I thought "this guy is going to melt in the bright sun." Yet, it went for the longest time before you could see any sweat on his cheeks. For a while I thought that it was AI. Had that been me, my shirt would have been drenched, hat stained with sweat and probably been dehydrated. I do not know how he could pull that off as he did. Congressman Zach Nunn was featured in the crowd adhering to the Presidents dress code and sweating, while Randy Feenstra wore an open collar shirt looking comfortable. That says that he has good sense.   Ahead of the Des Moines event a subscriber asked… "David, What is Trump going to tell us during his visit to Iowa tomorrow that would be relevant to Iowa Agriculture? Year around E15? A Trade Deal with China with actual purchase commitments? Thanks for any insight or predictions."   My answer was… "This America 250 thing at the Iowa State fairgrounds has been planned for a long time.  He may make some announcement ...

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Welcome back from the holiday weekend, my favorite holiday of the year, as I truly feel blessed to live in this great country. Now that we have reached the midpoint of 2025, we are officially closer to 2050 than we are to the year 2000. From 2000 to 2005, the goal of ethanol was to phase out MTBE, increasing usage from 1.6 billion gallons to 4 billion gallons. We have come a long way, yet there is still more work to be done. Where will we be in 25 years? I should say, where should we be? That’s a better question. While reading the safety warning on the fireworks we bought this weekend, it says, “If the firework doesn’t go off, do not try to relight it.” Let’s hope the grain markets ignore that warning and we can make another higher move before the water is applied for the remainder of the growing season. President Trump’s specific lack of Chinese news in Thursday’s speech very well could be the bucket of water the row crops were hoping to avoid. Without some help from Friday’s report or a change in the forecast, we might find it hard to avoid that. Thursday’s flash sales did help, but there is only so much the export market can do. The hard deadline of July 9th to ...

Grains are called lower at the open on anxiety ahead of the tariff deadline and after President Trump's speech in Iowa did not include the announcement of new trade promises made by China. In the Headlines Tariffs are the top focus at the start of the new week. The next deadline is Wednesday for President Trump to decide on reciprocal tariff hikes that were paused 90 days ago. Some countries could be granted further exemption if deemed that they are currently bargaining in good faith. Talks with Canada and the European Union were ongoing last week. The possibility is open for various agreements or 'framework' for agreements to be announced before the deadline. Vietnam was the latest to reach a deal that allows U.S. goods to be tariff free while U.S. importers would have to pay 20 percent on goods from Vietnam and 40 percent on goods re-imported through Vietnam from other countries such as China. President Trump spoke in Iowa on Thursday night, but he did not announce a Chinese agreement on agricultural purchases as some sources had speculated. Trump talked about the budget bill saving family farms from the estate tax, about "taking in hundreds of billions of dollar on tariffs with no inflation," and about setting a new record high in the stock market. On immigration, there were comments about farmers being able to vouch for undocumented workers that do not have a criminal record. Regarding trade, Trump mentioned the United Kingdom trade deal and that he got beef and ...

Until I was introduced to Free Trade Zones by Kevin Walmsley in his On China podcast, I did not know that they existed. He gave these bullet points to describe FTZs and what they are being used for. I can see that they provide some flexibility being an advantage in the current trade war.   (Walmsley) "Supply chain executives use just-in-time inventory management systems to carefully balance forecasted demand, against the high costs of stocking goods.   But the escalation of tariffs between the US and China compelled them to fill all available warehouse space, in the hope that a resolution would be reached before tripling prices at the retail level.   Foreign Trade Zones were a valuable tool to this end. FTZ's are scattered throughout the United States, and serve vast areas of the country. Wholesalers can legally import and stockpile product in bonded warehouses in FTZ's, and delay paying tariffs until the goods are withdrawn for sale or use.   Supply chain executives took an expensive gamble that the tariffs would come down before their shelves emptied, and even directed Chinese shipments to warehouses in Canada to further build out available stock. With the tariff rates dropping from 145%-plus, to 30%, (then back up to 50%) products can come out of the FTZ facilities and into stores, with sufficient additional stock pending the arrival of new shipments from Asia.   By taking delivery of products in an FTZ, merchants can postpone the payment of tariffs. An FTZ is considered outside the taxable jurisdiction of US Customs. Tariffs and duties ...

On the Grains As directed, the market shook off the news about crop conditions and traded sharply higher yesterday. News of a Vietnam trade deal did get markets fired up, yet we knew a month ago that an agreement had been reached, however, we still don’t know the specifics of it. News of President Trump having a big announcement in Iowa tonight was also tied to the sharply higher trade. If that announcement is based on actual numbers from Vietnam or, even better yet, China, we could be in for one heck of a ride after the 4th. Yet, as I am generally a glass-is-half-full type of guy, this doesn’t excite me all that much. We had a deal with China, yet they never held up their end of the agreement due to some fine print. I am taking all these stories with a grain of salt. December corn closing above the $4.28 level was critical if we want to mount some rally on weather after the 4th of July. After crop conditions were released on Monday, it was a race to the top in yield predictions, starting with a forecast of 181.5 BPA (USDA) and ending the day at 190 BPA. I believe the market finally came to its senses and realized how ridiculous that sounded on 95 million acres. I think when looking at the good-to-excellent numbers, there is a lot of “good” and limited “excellent” corn in the U.S. right now. Statistically, we are due for a trendline crop, ...

Up until now we have been seeing general soaking rains in most major growing regions. Most of Iowa and surrounding states will go into Independence Day well-watered. The first half of July still appears non-threatening and will keep the bears on the defensive.  While July precipitation forecasts switch from general soaking to more scattered showers, they still predict covering large enough regions to avoid any serious crop stress. Much of the Western Corn Belt will see 0.5" to 2" this week. We have been expecting a drier shift to the Western Corn Belt that has yet to materialize. We still see plenty of water for Nebraska, Kansas and Missouri next week along with favorable showers in Indiana, Ohio and Northern Illinois. Iowa leans drier but that doesn't have to be a bad thing. I still need things to dry out enough to do one final herbicide pass on my soybeans.   A big part of how this plays out will be the heat. We see above average temperatures for the upper Corn Belt, but nothing that would be considered extreme for the month of July. Much of Iowa, Northern Illinois, and Nebraska on North is expected to see temperatures 4 degrees F above average, putting most summer days in the mid to upper 80's. We expect 50% of the US corn crop to have tasseled by July 15th, at which time water demand increases. We don't see any issue with this as there should be plenty of water to draw from while ...

On the Grains When my dogs jump into the water off the boat, retrieving a stick, the first thing they do when they get back in the boat is shake it off, which is what the row crop markets attempted to do yesterday, as there wasn’t much to trade from the quarterly stocks and acres report. Hence, the focus was on crop conditions, and we had a negative undertone to deal with. With those crop conditions, I’ve heard national yield estimates ranging from 175-185 BPA. I’m going to be conservative and say we will fall somewhere in between (HA). However, while exports for the 2025/26 crop year are lower than this year's blistering pace, they are still high to start with. We have a dollar that has fallen to levels not seen since 2022, which we rallied to 110 that year (although it is doubtful this year will reach that level). While it’s difficult to cash that check just yet, keep an eye on it because our products are on sale, especially if you are a tributary to the export market. The lower dollar is helping us remain competitive with South America.

It is a lot More than Being About Eminent Domain!   There is a huge market developing for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) that has bio-fuel processors the world over attempting to meet. No place is better positioned than Iowa with its ethanol industry to take advantage of it. SAF feedstock must have a Carbon Intensity Score (CI) of 32 or lower to qualify while the carbon score for Midwest ethanol plants currently averages near 55. CO2 sequestration reduces the score for corn ethanol to qualify for SAF.   Brazil's ethanol meets the carbon score now as plants there are fueled by eucalyptus, which is grown by them, or with sugar cane refuge. The US ethanol industry has brought down its carbon score by adopting technology but plants are typically fueled with NG which prevents them from achieving the 32 SAF carbon score threshold for SAF feedstock. The sequestration of CO2 accumulated from US ethanol plants in appropriate geologic formations in ND and WY reduces the carbon score of US ethanol. Summit Carbon has 57 ethanol plants who would be partners who have agreed to connect to the pipeline to move the CO2 to ND for sequestration. Summit would share the revenue with these plants who then intend to expand operations increasing US demand for corn an estimated 600 mln bushels. US ethanol plants intend to expand production to meet SAF demand. There is potential with SAF to grow US ethanol corn demand to 10 bln bushels by 2050 at which time most plants should ...

On the Grains Yesterday’s USDA report showed a minor change in acreage and no change in corn stocks numbers. If there was one point of interest in the stocks, it was that on-farm bushels were at 2.56 billion, down 16% as farmers sold early and often. Moving forward, usage in the fourth quarter will have to be at a blistering pace if we expect to reach the 1.35 billion carryout target. Given the cattle on feed numbers and the potential for wheat and milo feeding, this will be a tall order.  

On the Grains I’m just going to say 'morning' because we won’t know what kind of morning it will be until 11 am. When the Vikings landed to raid and pillage, they burned their boats, leaving no way to retreat. Let’s hope that the USDA didn’t pay too much attention to history class, printing a 96-million bushel corn number would be like striking a match. The forecast has shifted from 'risk off' last Sunday to 'slight risk' as temperatures rise and rain eases slightly. Say what you will, but my crop will be in trouble if the water supply is cut off. I do believe the subsoil is recharged in many places, but roots haven’t needed to go find it yet. Downward growth slows significantly during V6 to V8, and once we reach V10 to V12, where many areas are close, the plant shifts its energy toward ear development. Enough with the agronomy, many readers know a hundred times more about that than I do. With a 96-million-acre corn crop, it will not matter what the forecast says, at 95 million, it will be enough to watch. I did not include cotton acres, but it's widely expected they will be 9.73 million today, down from 11.7 million last year. They went somewhere, let’s hope it’s not planted with corn and beans. 

One wonders with all of the DOGE disruption that has been going on at USDA if we can trust that the work was getting done. However, there were times when I didn't trust the work before so what has changed? Corn exports have exceeded expectations but that may have been offset because chicken/livestock numbers have been down. Then again, livestock weights have been heavy to offset fewer numbers.  USDA says that corn usage has not materially depleted stocks. USDA says that we had the supply, reporting June stocks of 4.644 bln bushel, 3 mln bushels above the average trade guess. As the 2025 crop was planted early, harvest may come early as well, narrowing the window for when new crop becomes available. Despite strong exports there is no shortage. USDA estimated quarterly soybean stocks of 1.008 bln bushels, 28 mln above the average trade estimate. Soybean stocks are 38 mln bushels larger than a year ago. We will be dependent on domestic crush for soybean demand as China is further moving purchases to South America. Quarterly wheat stocks of 851 mln bushel were 15 mln bushel above the average trade estimate. There was no ray of sunshine for the bulls in any of the stock's numbers. Bull's needed something more definitive. This means that there will likely not be a major change in the July WASDE report demand numbers.   USDA says that farmers planted the corn acres that they intended to, with 95.023 mln planted compared to expectations for 95.32 mln ...

Grains are called slightly softer at the open as market participants focus on favorable weather and negative technical leanings. Tentative traders otherwise await fresh fundamental input from Monday's stocks and acreage reports. In the Headlines Developments regarding the big budget bill will likely dominate headlines this week. The Senate advanced the bill for discussion and cleared the way for voting on proposed amendments. If passed in the Senate, the bill would be sent back to the House of Representatives for final approval. President Trump is pushing to sign the legislation before Independence Day on Friday. Part of the Senate's revisions to the budget included cuts for wind and solar tax credits. A new provision would tax wind and solar projects completed after 2027 if they use Chinese parts or materials. The bill would still support and extend the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, with the text including limitations against imported feedstocks such as used cooking oils. The ceasefire with Iran remained fragile as Israel turned its focus back to Gaza over the weekend. There may still be further retaliation for Israel's strikes against an Iranian prison last week. Also making headlines were comments from the head of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency that cast doubt on whether the U.S. strikes completely dismantled Iran's nuclear program. President Trump said on Friday that trade talks with Canada were being terminated because of a digital services tax that Canada was implementing against U.S. technology companies. Trump posted that Canada has been "a very difficult country to trade ...

Market participants have questioned if there is any weather risk premium at all left in the grain market. It is easy to wonder whether the focus on growing conditions is taking a backseat to other rapidly changing developments for items such as trade and biofuels policies, monetary policy, and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. There are seemingly a lot more items than usual to consider in addition to the normal assessment of how crops are doing in relation to the coming 4th of July holiday. An increasing slate of production estimates could help shift more of the attention back to weather. With the stocks and acreage updates now approaching on Monday, we are entering the most critical period of the reporting cycle for U.S. crop markets.   The question for the rest of the season is whether the USDA will follow last year's path in starting too optimistic on production and too pessimistic on usage, or if the government analysts flip to being more conservative on yield and/or quicker to respect the sustained strength of demand. A review of the reporting pattern from last year helps to explain why prices were unable to produce much upside during the spring this year and it also stands to show how future report surprises could end up producing contra-seasonal rallies.   When the USDA issued its first round of new-crop estimates in the May 2024 WASDE report, corn exports were estimated at 2.2 billion bushels. After making another incremental addition on this month's report, the ...

On the Grains Yesterday’s export sales were again strong, reported at 29.2 MBU. With 10 weeks remaining, we expect an adjustment of around 100 MBU (which we’ve discussed extensively), so we'll leave it at that. Historically, July forward export sales have ranged from 5 to 20 MBU. The rest of the year is not a concern, and there could still be additional upside, as the US is the cheapest place to source corn, for now. What catches my eye are the sales for 2025/26. Cumulative sales now stand at 142 MBU compared to last year’s 127 MBU. While it would be nice to see a smaller crop in Brazil (which won’t happen), we are still on a better-than-expected pace considering the rhetoric that China isn’t active in the marketplace. They will come to us only when needed, and that decision won’t be made until after they get harvested in the fall.

Below is a written conversation between my State Senator and myself regarding the CO2 pipeline issue. First, Senator Rowley's email to me:   "According to a poll taken last September 2024, 84% of Iowans said they are against the use of eminent domain for private projects.  Governor Reynolds and I are Republicans, and while we may disagree on some issues, we have a mutual respect for each other regardless of differences which is important for civil conversation.  The Governor and I also pay close attention to the voters and the Iowa GOP, whose platform for years has stated: 'We oppose federal or state government taking private property away from the owner for the use of another private party.  Eminent domain should be used for public use.'  Supreme Court Justices: Scalia, O'Connor, and Thomas would not support this action.  All three wrote scathing dissents when Kelo vs New London was decided years ago.  I respect their opinions based on the constitutionality regarding when eminent domain is warranted and necessary for 'public use.'  If you haven't you may want to read their opinions for context. The Iowa House voted overwhelming for this bill 85-10.  Since I was elected in 2022 the senate has failed to bring house or senate bills forward through committee to find an answer for landowners.  In the last three years Governor Reynolds has preferred not to address this issue. This is the first communication I have received from you for at least over the last year since we discussed this ...

On the Grains Good morning, yesterday’s WIA weekly ethanol report showed production slightly decreasing to 1.081 MBPD, down only slightly from last week's 1.190 MBPD. With 10 weeks remaining, we need to average 1.11 MBPD to meet the USDA’s 5.5-billion-bushel usage target, which would be a 2.8% increase from last year. This week's production numbers came in at 3.6% higher year-over-year, and the 4-week average is up 5.3%, giving us no reason to believe we won’t meet USDA’s targets. Also, fuel to the proverbial fire, US gasoline demand rose to 9.68 MBPD, the highest weekly gain since 2021, and up 8% from the same week last year. The amount of Milo converted into ethanol remains a concern and a potential black swan; however, these numbers suggest that we will meet the USDA’s targets. The political red tape surrounding ethanol in the US continues to be frustrating, as Brazil now has a 30% blend, up from 27%, starting in August, while the US struggles to achieve a 15% year-round blend. We could increase the value of our corn and enhance the economic viability of rural communities by simply adjusting the blend requirements, even without a carbon pipeline, with just the stroke of a pen.