CommStock Reports

05/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Huge Week for Ag as Middle East Tensions Persist On the Grains Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight, with the soy complex leading the move higher. Grain traders have a lot of potentially major market-moving reports and events this week, while the broader marketplace continues to monitor the situation in the Middle East. Crude oil futures strengthened overnight as President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the U.S. framework to end the war, calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Tehran demanded a lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining a degree of control over traffic through Hormuz, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter. Iran also insisted that any agreement must result in an immediate end to fighting, including in Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel war against militant group Hezbollah. Huge Week for Agricultural Reports, Policy & Events Aside from the typical weekly data, there are potential major market-moving reports and events for agriculture. WASDE Report (Tuesday) USDA will update its 2025-26 U.S. and global balance sheets and also issue its first official look at the 2026-27 marketing year. Crop Production Report (Tuesday) USDA’s initial winter wheat crop estimates. Particular attention will be on the HRW crop estimate. Wheat Quality Council HRW Tour (Tuesday-Thursday) Scouts will pull samples from fields in Kansas, while crop estimates from Nebraska and Colorado will also be issued. Potential House Vote on Year-Round E15 Legislation (Tuesday?) After stripping year-round E15 from its farm bill, the House may vote on ...

Grains were called to open firmer following a strong finish on Friday, but commodities could later take on pressure from lower crude oil if further de-risking occurs in connection to developments with Iran. In the Headlines The public was awaiting details on Iran's response to a U.S. peace plan offer. President Trump had yet to comment on the result. Meanwhile, Iranian drones had been activated again, including in an attack against a ship near Qatar. Sunday afternoon news about U.S.-Iran war negotiations would guide the market open and form the basis of expectations about President Trump's trip to China planned for Thursday and Friday. The possibility of another meeting postponement hinged on Iran accepting a deal or not. The summit otherwise has a range of outcomes for addressing Chinese agricultural purchases, including the particular question of how soybeans are addressed. Traders will watch for reports of soybean trade activity in the lead up to the meeting. Asked on Sunday about government interventions that could possibly include suspending the federal gasoline tax, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he was "open to all ideas" for managing high prices at the pump. The Department of Energy has been writing swap contracts to sell inventories from the strategic oil reserve while buying forward contracts to replace stocks at lower costs. The national average gas price was recorded at $4.52 versus $3.13 a year ago. Both Russia and Ukraine have blamed the other side for breaking a three-day ceasefire that was in place through Monday. President Trump announced on Friday ...

Grain traders have their attention shifted onto the May 14-15 meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in China. While Tuesday's crop report will help shape short-term market direction along with war and weather, the outcome of the China summit may ultimately prove more critical for soybean prices. That the meeting would even take place is viewed as significant after the initial trip was postponed from late April because of the outbreak of war with Iran. Reports of U.S. military transport aircraft arriving in Beijing ahead of the visit indicated that preparations were underway and that the meeting will likely proceed as planned. Simply holding the meeting would be viewed as a constructive first step toward normalizing trade relations with China. Still, traders will judge the market impact by what tangible agreements could emerge. Markets were poised to reflect what wins out among the good, bad, and ugly possibilities surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.   This week's headlines commonly mentioned a "memo of understanding" that outlined details for ending the war with Iran. The possibility of another memo of understanding was being brought up for handling Chinese soybean purchases that could be made in advance of next week's meeting. China was in the news for buying U.S. soybeans right before the last meeting between Trump and Xi in October, which led to China's promises to import 12 million metric tons of soybeans this season and at least 25 mmt in each of the next three years. One of the positive scenarios following ...

Part 2 of 3 In going through my office records when cleaning out my desk, I came across a number of things that brought back memories. I will share my nostalgia of the ethanol industry in this report.   The battle for ethanol goes back further than most remember and before my time. It was alleged to be a fight between Henry Ford who made Model Ts that ran on ethanol and J.D. Rockefeller who used Prohibition to eventually force automakers to make engines that used gasoline instead. It's easy to see why Rockefeller is so easily blamed: he and his wife became proponents of the Temperance movement to cut U.S. alcohol consumption, which ultimately led to the period of Prohibition from 1920 to 1933. The real thing that had prevented ethanol from becoming a fuel source were alcohol taxes. That was remedied by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906 with the passage of the Free Alcohol bill.   ******   I used to read the funny paper section of the Des Moines Register and I kept the issue from Sunday July 8th 2006 in a drawer in my desk. It was the lead cartoon and it shows that they did not take the ethanol industry very seriously 20 years ago. I guess that it was the ethanol industry that got the last laugh. The petroleum industry must have paid for the cartoon. Bruce Tinsle did not know what he was talking about. Ethanol receives no subsidies and when they deducted the energy retained by distillers' grain in ...

05/07/2026 Markets Await Iran’s Response Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Await Iran’s Response On the Grains Wednesday’s heavy selling in the grain and soy markets eased overnight, with notable rebounds from session lows early this morning. Crude oil also continues to face pressure, though selling from yesterday has eased.Markets await Iran’s response to the latest peace proposal. The two sides are reportedly leaning toward a limited, temporary agreement, according to Reuters. The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, sources told Reuters. A Pakistani source and another source briefed on the mediation said a one-page memorandum to formally end the conflict was close, though gaps remain between the sides. The proposal would formally end the conflict while leaving unresolved key U.S. demands such as the restrictions on Iran's missile program and an end to its support for proxy militias in the Middle East.Meanwhile, the Israeli army says it killed the commander of an elite Hezbollah unit in an attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Wednesday. Other Israeli attacks took place in southern Lebanon, close to Israel’s northern border and where IDF strikes on Hezbollah’s operations have been most frequent. Middle East tensions remain elevated, but markets are focused on prospects for the U.S./Iran peace deal. President Trump seems to want a deal completed soon. Iran has remained resistant if not defiant on the surface, but economic strain ...

While temperatures remain cool to start the month of May, fields have had time to dry out allowing planting pace to accelerate.  As stated previously, there is no significant precipitation seen north of I-80 this week.  Heavy precipitation is seen falling in Missouri, Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana and most of Ohio.  Next week precipitation comes back to Minnesota and North Dakota but leaves Iowa and Northern Illinois mostly dry again despite for small pockets of scattered showers.   We finished planting corn on our farm May 1st.  I suspect those growers in Western Iowa that got an early start will already begin finishing this week.  US Corn planting pace reached 38% through last week, 4% above its historical average.  Over half of the US corn crop will be planted by this weekend.  Soybean planting is 33% complete, 10% above its historical average.  If we keep this up, we might have to adjust for a higher bean yield.   Temperatures continue to be the limiting factor as they remain 4 to 6 degrees below their average for this week.  As we progress through the month, they should reach their trendline temperatures at least for the Western Corn Belt by May 20th.  The Eastern Cornbelt, however, sees temperatures continue to linger below their historical averages.  This will slow crop development but to what extent depends on the longevity.   Pioneer Seed planting studies show a strong correlation between yield and planted date.  It should come as no surprise that earlier planted fields tend to perform better.  Their ...

05/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Peace Deal Winds Blowing Harder On the Grains Markets reacted sharply overnight to the report from Axios that the U.S. believes it is close to an agreement with Iran to end the war. Washington and Tehran reportedly are working on a one-page memorandum of understanding that would set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.President Trump suspended a military initiative to guide stranded ships though the Strait of Hormuz and has reportedly been indicating to U.S. officials he wants to end the war soon. Meanwhile, China’s foreign minister stepped up its efforts to get Iran to negotiate an end to the war. Mediator Pakistan believes a deal is close. Iran has been silent, though the U.S. reportedly expects to hear from Tehran in the next 48 hours. There are signs a deal may be near. There have been such signs before, but these appear to be stronger. Grains faced heavy selling overnight. There’s risk of heavy long liquidation with the peace deal winds blowing harder, as funds have amassed what is likely to be a record net long position in grain and soy complex markets. Crude oil also faced heavy selling overnight and the U.S. dollar index slumped, while global stock markets and U.S. stock futures along with metals rallied. The overnight price action shows the initial knee-jerk reaction. It would eventually be followed by a period of recalibration as markets figure out fair values based on market fundamentals. Even after the war is ended, it will take weeks or months ...

Part 1 of 3 The picture below is of the FS blender's pump that I filled my tank from Tuesday 4/28. I drive a Dodge Ram with a hemi-engine and use E-30. It is my second truck using E-30 after having put on well over 200,000 miles on the first with no engine trouble. The average price of gas was over $4 gallon nationally that day but locally E10 was still priced at $3.649 gallon in Spencer Iowa on its way higher. I bought E-30 for $2.999 gallon saving 65 cents a gallon compared to E-10. I am confused as to why consumers would not do that. Farmers, in particular, should be wise to the best choice of fuel blend. Why waste money? My truck holds 24 gallons or so when I fill up so that is $15.60 savings per tank...enough for McDonalds (or used to be). The current pricing advantage for E-30 was not the result of the war…as it has been there the whole time.   E-10 replaced MTBE poison as a gasoline additive, it is an oxygenate, reduces smog and has higher octane. All of the physical benefits of ethanol are retained with higher blends but the consumer also gets a price benefit over gasoline as additional cheaper ethanol is added to the blend. We are fortunate in Iowa to have access to blenders pumps and year-around E-15. My general range of travel is in the region within Sioux Falls to Minneapolis to DesMoines to Omaha. I have no problem ...

05/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Tap the Breaks; Money Flow Remains Critical Reco Day 3: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50. Filled on May 1.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are under pressure early this morning, with HRW wheat leading declines. Markets failed to sustain buyer interest early in the overnight session. July corn futures posted an exact double-top with the March 9 spike high, while July soybeans failed to clear Monday’s high before both turned lower. Speculative money flow will remain the primary driver of price action during today’s session. Funds likely moved to a record cumulative net long position in the grain and soy markets. The broader marketplace remains edgy as traders keenly monitor the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. Relative calm has seemingly prevailed for now after U.S. and Iranian forces exchanged fire on Monday and Tehran launched missiles and drones toward the United Arab Emirates. The U.S. aided at least two merchant vessels through the Strait of Hormuz on Monday, though Iran hit a South Korean bulk carrier and attacked an empty tanker belonging to the UAE’s state oil firm. Corn Planting Stays Ahead; ...

President Trump said that 'he was not satisfied' with the latest Iranian proposal to end the war. That is not surprising as there was no capitulation from them in it. He also says that negotiations are making great progress. That I do not believe. His latest plan to guide rather than escort neutral parties through the Strait, Project Freedom, lacks the required definition of the distinctive difference between the two…as to guiding versus escorting. As of this writing, Iran has not yet bought into it. In fact, quite the opposite as they were reportedly instigating new attacks. As commercial ships moved to attempt to take advantage of being quidded out, Iran struck the UAE and ships with drones attempting to foil the effort to escape. Watch your news-feed for updates. The President previously lamented that negotiations were struggling as they had killed the original set of Iranian leaders that they had been talking to. The evidence is that there is new top-level leadership functioning as well as a mosaic military command structure that acts independently but also follows orders. While the President told Congress otherwise, there is definitely a war going on around the Persian Gulf. The White House says that it is no longer a war in order to avoid a requirement for Congressional authorization. No stopping the hostilities for Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Their idea of a ceasefire is just to reload so they can keep firing. When President Trump says that Iran wants a deal what ...

05/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds Haven’t Hit the Brakes on Buying Yet Reco Day 2: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50. Filled on May 1.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Soybeans actively traded higher overnight after the July contract finally closed above $12 last Friday and broke out above the seven-week choppy trading range. Corn and soyoil have perked up after facing light pressure early in the overnight session. Buyer interest is muted in wheat markets. Fund willingness to keep pumping money into the long side of markets will be key to how far current rallies extend. Managed money held a near-record long position in CBOT grain/soy futures as of April 28; It was record length when including HRW and HRS futures. The move higher in grains this morning is being augmented by crude oil, which is higher and trading near its overnight highs this morning amid reports claiming two missiles hit an American patrol boat after disregarding Iranian warning. Project Freedom, which President Trump labeled as a “humanitarian gesture” to help ships stranded in the Persian Gulf transit the Strait of Hormuz was set to begin today. The U.S. military pledged ...

Grains were called toward a softer open while the news was quiet for crude oil, which was what traders would watch for change before Sunday night. In the Headlines Headlines were mixed as war news was relatively limited to this point in the weekend. President Trump on Saturday said he was "reviewing a plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can't imagine it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done..." A lower start for crude oil would snap a streak of nine straight Sundays of opening higher since the initial strikes against Iran. Moore Research calls out two seasonal trades for buying June crude oil and June RBOB gasoline. Both have entry dates of May 3 and exit dates of May 17. Both were winners in 13 of the last 15 years (large losses were incurred in the off years). There were more eyeballs on the currency market last week after an intervention by the Japanese government rallied the yen, which put weight on the dollar index. The yen was dropping toward its weakest level against the dollar since 1990 before the policymakers spent an estimated $35 billion to prop up their currency. Volatility returned to the market as U.S. interest rates widened their gap above yields in Japan. Commodity prices were finding support from the softer dollar, with the dollar index having dropped in four out of the last five weeks. Monday's crop markets will assess planting progress achieved over ...

With help from crude oil prices pushing back above $100 per barrel, grain futures were strengthening toward critical chart levels that included $5 per bushel for corn, $12 for soybeans, and $7 for wheat. The cattle market was similarly benefitting from the additional flow of funds into commodities and traders were trying to determine if futures were lacking the momentum to sustain new all-time highs. The chances for a continued commodity sector breakout were left to depend on the weekend developments with Iran and whether it would become 10 straight Sundays of crude oil futures opening higher.   There were evidently a lot of orders stacked up right under $5 for December corn futures, with the session high reaching $4.99 3/4 on Thursday. Friday's trade poked above $5 but settled under it. This was the highest level for the December 2026 corn contract since 2023. Some farmers were selling the new-crop with last year in mind, both because current prices were higher and because many still had ample old-crop corn stocks left over. On May 1st last year, the December 2025 corn futures traded up to a high of $4.49 3/4. That contract never reached above $5 in 2025, having its high in February at $4.79 3/4 and falling to as low as $3.92 in August. Abundant old-crop stocks may be limiting upside for the futures curve as farmers sell cash into the rallies. Having unpriced old-crop corn inventories may also make farmers more comfortable hedging new-crop against the more attractive carry ...

05/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Turn The Page Reco Day 1: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50.   Reco Day 3: We want to continue to reward the wheat rally. Set price target for new crop wheat of $7, advancing sales an additional 20% using Chicago wheat as a reference. Filled on April 29. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Corn and soybeans firmed overnight as the calendar flipped to May, extending price gains posted during April. July soybeans are again attempting to find buying above $12 and post an upside breakout from the sideways channel that has been in place since mid-March. Wheat markets pivoted around unchanged after retreating sharply from their recent highs to close out April. Seasonally, years with price strength during April tend to keep building upside momentum in the corn and soybean markets. But strong upside moves from current levels would likely require fresh bullish news, such as safrinha corn struggles in Brazil, a trade deal with China that includes ag purchase agreements, an old-crop demand pull, early season U.S. crop concerns and/or geopolitical support. Any strength in the wheat market during May, if there is any, tends to come within the first ...

The last 5-year Farm Bill that Congress enacted was in 2018 and since 2023 they have been extending the bill annually as they could not agree on a new one. Republicans control Congress and they want to say they passed a fresh Farm Bill in case they lose control of the House in the fall mid-term election. The White House and Congressional leadership would like a Farm Bill to tout on the campaign trail. The GOP has just a tiny House majority and it will take bi-partisan cooperation to pass a bill. That has always been the case.   The Farm Bill has always been a product of compromise. Democrats typically called it a food bill for the benefits it contained for consumers and accounted for the largest amount of the spending while Republicans typically supported the farm subsidies that directly benefited farmers. The result was that both sides got what they wanted for conceding to what the other side wanted as well. If either side refused to concede to the other, there was no Farm Bill. To keep the wheels from flying off they would extend any current bill. That extended whatever programs were on auto-pilot but didn't allow for change or reform of programs. The days of compromise by our political parties have since almost disappeared which is why we have not had a new Farm Bill since 2018. The Republicans have gone around the Farm Bill by enacting policy improving farm subsidy benefits while reducing food benefits in the ...

04/30/2026 Grains Flash Short-Term Topping Signals Reco Day 2: We want to continue to reward the wheat rally. Set price target for new crop wheat of $7, advancing sales an additional 20% using Chicago wheat as a reference. Filled on April 29. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning; Eric will return tomorrow. On the Grains Wheat markets traded lower overnight after finishing well off their session highs on Wednesday. U.S. and global crop concerns remain, but price action late yesterday and overnight signals a short-term top. The market had gotten too frothy with speculative buying. Corn and soybeans also pulled back overnight. Of note: July soybeans are showing another potential failed upside breakout from the sideways range since mid-March. Spikes of $12 in July soybeans have stalled buying. June WTI crude oil futures marked a contract high overnight before pulling back. The war-time high for WTI came on March 9 at $119.48 on the continuation chart, before June was the lead-month contract. Bulls still have that as an upside target. Brent crude oil marked a four-year high before pulling back. The U.S. is pushing for other countries to form an international coalition to restore freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a State Department cable seen by Reuters. Meanwhile, U.S. Central Command has asked to send ...

We started out the week with additional precipitation in the Eastern Corn Belt while South Dakota and Nebraska are hit or miss.  Bulls believe there is too much precipitation delaying planting, while Bears point out that the worst drought areas have been eliminated.   Areas in and around Wisconsin and Michigan have had the wettest March-April period ever recorded!  Meanwhile, the Southeast US and western edges of Nebraska and South Dakota experienced some of their driest on record.  Central and Western Iowa are sort of in the middle, with adequate showers keeping things wet but still allowing for fieldwork.  The US grain area in drought has been cut in half since March, and it continues getting smaller.   In NW Iowa, we finished planting our soybeans and half of our corn by April 22nd.  We have one more field to go but might not get to it until later this week.  There is no rush.  The forecast through May 5th now shows a drying pattern for the majority of the Corn Belt.  This will give time for fields to dry out and help to advance planting.  Areas of Missouri and Illinois need a break from the rain.  We don’t see significant precipitation coming back north of I-80 until May 10th, at which point much of Iowa and the Northern Corn Belt see widespread precipitation.  The majority of Iowa will be planted by then.  The Western regions receive some scattered showers, but more will be needed.   Temperatures remain cool through most of May, seeing 3 ...

04/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crops Price Inflation Accelerates; Don’t Get Caught Watching Reco Day 1: We want to continue to reward the wheat rally. Set price target for new crop wheat of $7, advancing sales an additional 20% using Chicago wheat as a reference.  *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Wheat continued its recent price surge overnight, with new-crop HRW and HRS futures now solidly above $7. Corn and soy complex futures also strengthened. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has created a perfect storm for food inflation, driving up commodity prices and choking off fertilizer supplies, while extreme weather is heightening global crop concerns. The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 of the world’s leading crop products, has climbed to the highest level since November 2023. The World Bank’s latest “Commodity Markets Outlook" report warned the ongoing geopolitical conflict in the Middle East will continue to impact global energy and commodity supply chains, potentially triggering a new round of price surges. World Bank predicts that the overall average price of global commodities will rise by 16% in 2026. World Bank had previously forecasted that the price of agricultural commodities would decline this year. It now expects a 2% increase in its food price index. Speculative money is flowing into grain and soy markets, especially wheat, pushing front-month wheat contracts ...

Every day that the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the balance sheet of global oil supply/demand deteriorates a little further. It has now passed the point of concern to where it is becoming a major crisis. 20% of the world's oil/gas moved through the Strait but there are some alternatives such as pipelines that were underutilized, latent production capacity elsewhere from the Mid-East that could be brought on-line as well as reserve stocks that could fill a temporary shortage of supply that gets users by for a while before the real crunch hits. The alternative transportation routes and reserve supplies initially reduce the shortage to near 9% but that grows as strategic reserves are exhausted and the flow of commodities from the Gulf is not restored. There was an initial assumption based primarily on president Trumps assertions that the supply shortfall would be a relatively brief disruption that is now morphing into the reality that he was wrong and it is protracting. The replacement cost of barrel of oil will rise further. The supply shortfall is not evenly distributed between countries. China got 80% of its oil through the strait, Japan 93% and South Korea 70% plus 20% of its NG. The global oil supply chain, which was working quite well, is unraveling. The UAE is exiting OPEC. They have plans to pump more oil than under the current agreement. As long as the Strait remains closed the actual global supply shortage is going to get worse before it gets ...

04/28/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Inflation Fears Add Strength to Grains On the Grains Wheat futures surged overnight, led by HRW contracts, as wheat crops in the Plains continue to deteriorate. Corn followed to the upside, while soybeans modestly pulled back from Monday’s gains, content to hold in the extended sideways range. Soymeal and soyoil are firmer, with meal supported by news the Netherlands has rejected at least two Argentine soymeal cargoes this month after finding non-approved GMO material. Aside from the wheat crop woes, inflation concerns are adding support to the commodity sector. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is trading at its highest level since 2013, driven by oil and supply-chain concerns tied to the war in the Middle East. A rising tide is lifting all boats… aside from metals, which are under pressure. Winter Wheat Conditions Unchanged; HRW Crop Continues to Deteriorate USDA rated 30% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good/excellent, unchanged from the previous week, but 10 percentage points below the five-year average. HRW states showed further general deterioration. Of the seven HRW states, South Dakota has the highest rated crop at only 35% good/excellent. While much of the attention is on the good/excellent ratings, the poor/very poor conditions are just as alarming. USDA’s poor/very poor rating increased two points to 35% nationally. All seven of the HRW states have high poor/very poor ratings, with Texas the highest at 66%, followed by Nebraska at 65%. HRW crop insurance claims will be heavier than normal this year, which will pull ...

I have expressed concern for the President and the President's family's well-being in this report before… primarily in regard to Iran. There have been 3 lone-wolf attempts on his life (that we know of) and only the one in Pennsylvania, where there was a major security breach and a tragic loss of life, was life-threatening to the President. These attempts were directed at him. I was first focused on whether there was an Iranian connection to the weekend shooting at the Correspondents' Dinner. There did not appear to be. It had less than a zero chance of success. Such an attempt from Iran would be better resourced and executed. Reportedly, there were 5 of the top 6 in the line of succession to the president there which made it an extremely target-rich environment. After all, congregating top leaders in one place was how Israel was able to kill so many Iranian leaders. Only the President pro-team of the US Senate, Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley, 4th in line of succession was not there. Hopefully, better precautions will be taken. Administration security attention has turned more toward drones. Trump administration officials have become targets. My greatest concern is most focused on the President's family, who will reside at the more extreme extension of the President's security bubble. His granddaughter, the golfer, would be a prime target as would Barron or Jared. After his sanctioned killing of the Ayatollah's family, never has the eye-for-an-eye tooth-for-a-tooth thing ever been more motivated. I actually think ...

04/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Corn, SRW Wheat Take the Reins On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures traded mostly higher overnight, led by corn and SRW wheat futures, with July contracts rising to their highest levels since early April. HRW wheat struggled to find sustained buying. Soybeans followed to the upside, while holding within the extended sideways trading range. Corn and SRW wheat taking the upside lead from HRW wheat would be supportive. The strongest and most lasting rallies typically feature rotational leadership. With the calendar flipping to May late this week, traders have a greater weather focus. But geopolitics also continue to grab attention, with strength in crude oil providing support for ag markets overnight. Dry areas of the Plains received little to no rainfall over the weekend. Some rains are forecast over the next week, but they will favor areas east of the driest locations, keeping moisture stress on much of the HRW wheat crop. Brazil’s safrinha corn area is also garnering market attention. Early maturing safrinha corn is developing favorably, though the bulk of the crop is in need of rains, with none in the seven-day forecast and the longer-term outlook trending hotter and drier. On the Cattle:  Live cattle and feeders rallied sharply on Friday as cash fat cattle and feeder prices stabilized after declining earlier in the week. That may have given traders some hope short-term bottoms are close for both markets, though the futures strength may have been nothing more than corrective buying. Either way, the ...

Grains looked poised for slight strength at the open behind crude oil advancing back toward a test of $100 per barrel, but with all markets still subject to shedding risk premium on the possible next headlines about de-escalation with Iran. In the Headlines Sunday headlines were dominated by the shooting incident at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, where President Trump may have been the target of a gunman who was apprehended. The suspect was a U.S. citizen but his motives were unknown as of yet. The top news before Saturday night was that President Trump cancelled negotiations with Iran. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump son-in-law Jared Kushner were previously set to join Vice President JD Vance on the trip to Pakistan, but Vance dropped out before the others were pulled back. Trump posted about Iran: "Nobody knows who is in charge, including them." The rest of the weekend was being monitored for skirmishes around the Strait of Hormuz, which the U.S. Navy was working within to clear Iranian sea mines. The count continues for what could be nine straight Sundays of crude oil futures opening higher since the initial strikes against Iran on February 28th. Oil futures held onto gains for five of the last eight weeks, finishing last week near $95 after trading at $67 before the conflict and up to just short of $120 on Sunday, March 8th. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins on Friday announced plans to issue a second round of Supplemental Disaster Relief Program payments. Covering calendar years 2023 and ...

Next Thursday is first notice day for May grain futures. The start of the delivery period is a critical point for the market because of the decisions it forces on traders. Commercial merchandisers may want to take in the physical product from seeing futures as the lower priced alternative against replacement in the cash market. Sellers may see the opposite in deliverable values or they could hold bear spreads that make them want to issue their shorts. Futures traders not planning on making or taking delivery could close positions and exit the market entirely, or futures can be rolled or reversed.  Farmers are included in the mix with cash contracting deadlines that require delivery or rolling. The delivery period decisions will show their impacts on markets through changes in basis, spreads, volume, open interest, and trader positioning. Consider trader positioning specifically for predicting how price action could look going through next week's opening of the May delivery window.   Three things stand out for trader positions in corn: managed money funds have been closing out of a bullish bet built up from the start of the year; index funds have not yet budged from holding a strong net-long; and farmers still have a potentially burdensome amount of old-crop corn left to sell. The discretionary money managers were net-sellers of corn for three straight weeks after their net-long topped out near 285,000 contracts in late March. Benefitting from the broader money flows into commodities that were tied to the war in Iran, managed ...

04/24/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Take Advantage of Speculative Wheat Surge On the Grains SRW futures paced buying in wheat markets overnight instead of HRW. That’s a potentially key shift that bears watching since SRW draws more speculative interest. It may not be more than a modest spread correction, but it could signal stronger speculative money flow into the market. As of April 14 (latest data), SRW was the only wheat market managed money wasn’t net long. Wheat futures are poised for their second straight strong weekly gain, with HRW up around 80 cents during that period, rallying to the highest level since June 2024 on the continuation chart amid crop concerns. Corn is also in line for a second straight strong weekly gain, following wheat higher. Soybeans are higher this morning but lower for the week, while remaining in the five-week sideways trading range. USDA estimated 70% of the U.S. winter wheat crop was impacted by drought as of April 21, including virtually all of HRW production areas. While the drought footprint is spreading, it isn’t something new… it has been “known” for months. But major media is starting to pick up on it, which can drive more speculative money flow – but also can mean the market is into the final phase of its run. Springtime rallies in wheat are very difficult to sustain – even in poor crop years – and typically end well before crop woes are confirmed by harvest results. On the Cattle:  Live cattle rebounded from a ...