CommStock Reports

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/02/2026 Sour Tone Set for Harvest PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update October is underway and grain traders have their focus on harvest progress picking up as the weather clears, but there is worth in one more look back at the September stocks report. With the report came answers to two important questions about whether last year's corn yield had been significantly overstated and whether old-crop soybean stocks were much tighter than previously predicted. USDA did not budge on the corn yield, but soybean inventories were recognized to be slimmer than most traders expected. The bearish reactions led by corn risked breaking the bullish price trends that had pushed corn futures above $5, soybeans above $13, and wheat above $7. Instead of offering a correction to an inflated corn yield estimate, the report was a reminder of abundant corn stocks being carried over as another large crop begins harvest. One silver lining within the inventory count was that a substantial proportion of corn stocks had shifted from on-farm to off-farm over the last quarter, suggesting that farmers had been selling more aggressively at the highest prices of the season. Old-crop sales made recently can serve as a hedge for patience against marketing the new-crop under potential harvest price pressure. Some traders were vindicated in their proclamations about old-crop soybean stocks being tighter than USDA previously let on, but the degree of scarcity was not as extreme as the most ...

10/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video No Immediate Chinese Ag Buys from Trade Deal On the Grains: Corn and soybeans traded lower overnight and are poised for sharp weekly losses after downside breakouts from their month-long sideways ranges. So far, buyers have surfaced around the $5 mark for December corn and around $12.75 for November soybeans. That must remain the case to avoid deeper price losses going into the weekend. Amid a host of other factors, money flow will remain the key price driver for corn and soybeans. for Wheat markets are trying to work higher on light corrective buying early this morning but are sharply lower for the week. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said there is no timetable for implementing proposed tariff reductions with China, underscoring the unfinished work behind one of the principal economic announcements from last week’s trade meeting. He said implementing the U.S./China Board of Trade’s recommendations would require public input, a comment process and a legal determination on whether to adopt them. That’s consistent with China’s comments and suggests the tariff rollbacks will take time. Agriculture has a substantial stake. China’s proposed list includes U.S. corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, cotton, beef, pork and dairy products. Greer’s comments temper expectations that announcing the lists would quickly translate into lower import costs and stronger agricultural sales. Exporters now face an additional period in which potential Chinese commercial buyers know relief may be coming but cannot confidently price it into transactions. Rains are expected to continue across the western and central Corn ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/01/2026 Why Wall Street Is Quietly Buying America's Best Farmland PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Are they now? That was the title from a podcast that caught my attention. It was a blanket statement that in reality fits more like a quilt. It began…" For most of American history, the value of farmland was dictated entirely by what you could grow out of it. But in late 2025, 35.5 acres of land in Sioux County, Iowa, sold at auction for $32,000 an acre. Hold that record-breaking price against the financial reality of the year it happened: corn and soybean prices were weak, profit margins were deeply compressed, and input costs for fertilizer and equipment were high. By every operational metric of what that ground could actually yield, it was a terrible time to buy land. A typical piece of cropland generates roughly $160 an acre in rent. Set against the multi-million-dollar capital cost required to buy premium dirt at the top of the market, that leaves a gross yield of roughly 1% before property taxes, management fees, or seed purchases. No rational investor buys a 1% yielding asset for immediate income; they buy it as a hedge against broader economic uncertainty." The just of what they are saying, that the price of farmland today does not reflect the underlying economics, is correct but their details are wrong. Sioux County Iowa farmland value is an exception, not even the mean ...

10/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Ball In Funds’ Court On the Grains: Grain and soy futures traded in relatively tight ranges overnight as markets paused following Wednesday’s reaction to USDA’s reports. Corn and wheat futures are trying to recoup a little of Wednesday’s sharp losses early this morning. Soybeans are mildly favoring the downside. With the flip of the calendar to a new month and new quarter, attention will be squarely on money flow and fund positioning. Corn and wheat broke down technically, while soybeans are holding above their late-September lows. USDA added 173 million bu. to the new-crop corn balance sheet with the Sept. 1 stocks figure, which is beginning stocks for the 2026-27 marketing year. That’s the equivalent of about 2 bu. per acre of yield that would have to be trimmed without any changes to the demand side of the balance sheet. Corn ending stocks are still down from last year, but there’s a little more cushion now. Soybeans have a little less cushion, though projected ending stocks for 2026-27 still wouldn’t be tight. Wheat continues to face a demand problem, despite disruptions in the Black Sea. The question is whether funds get spooked into liquidating more of their recently record combined length across the grain and soy markets or see this as a fresh buying opportunity. Funds may be hesitant to fully reload length with the bulk of harvest still ahead. Also consider, The Bloomberg Agriculture Spot Index, which tracks 10 key crops, including corn, soybeans and ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/30/2026 The Argument for $6 Corn Just Got That Much Harder. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Ouch!  We were expecting a quarterly stocks report with little fanfare, but USDA had other plans.  The corn market is down some 20 cents today as the Sept 1st quarterly stocks report saw the average estimate up some 177 million bushels over what the average trade guess was.  Some had speculated that last season's crop was overstated.  In actuality, it appears what was overstated was demand estimates.  Much of that appears to have come from a cut in feed usage, which we had previously stated was too high.  They just waited until now to tell us.  If we were to add this 177 million bushels to the last WASDE report, we would get an ending stock number for the 26/27 season of 1.744 billion bushels.  While tighter than last year, it makes the argument for $6 corn that much more difficult.  What we still don't know is how much of this can be offset in the October WASDE report.  The USDA would have to cut another 2 bpa in yield just to get us back to par.  Or cut 1 bpa and increase demand someplace else.  Possible, but much less certain.  It puts much greater pressure on the bulls to come up with something if we are going to get another shot at $6 bucks. It was well covered how managed ...

09/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Sept. 1 Stocks Have History of Surprises On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher for most of the overnight session and are near their highs early this morning as traders await USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks and Annual Small Grains Summary at 11 a.m. CT. November soybeans have climbed back into the month-long sideways range after Monday’s downside breakout attempt. December corn futures are trying to climb back into the month-long sideways range. Wheat markets are rebounding from their drop to the lowest levels since mid-August. The Grain Stocks Report has a history of big market moves, especially for corn, as traders have broadly missed with their pre-report expectations. Sept. 1 stocks will likely trigger the market reaction. Over the past 10 years, Sept. 1 corn stocks were below expectations seven times, with an average miss of 52 million bu. below the average pre-report estimate. The range of misses was huge at 314 million bu. below expectations to 195 million bu. above expectations, with five of the 10 years being more than 100 million bu. above or below the average pre-report estimate. For soybeans, Sept. 1 stocks were below expectations six times and above four, with the average miss just 200,000 bu. below expectations. The range of misses was 69 million bu. below to 82 million bu. above the average pre-report estimate. Sept. 1 wheat stocks were above expectations eight of the past 10 years. The average miss for wheat was 12 million bu. above expectations, with ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/29/2026 I Hate Russia More Than the President Does PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Russians are cruel people, a conclusion derived from observing their long history, the record of which applied to how they treat themselves besides others. They do not contest it with cruelty being almost a point of national pride. They are the ones that shoot their own soldiers to prevent them from retreating. Millions under Russian dominance were purposely starved to death and they also sent millions to Gulags in Siberia in order to rule the rest by fear. They used peasants as slaves long after slavery was ended by the rest of the world. When they had chances at democracy, after the fall of the Tsar and again after the breakup of the Soviet Union, they chose another repressor instead. Imagine how much wealth that the US has expended since WWII defending itself from Russia during the Cold War. Unlike Islamic extremists, they are not ideologues. They will kill, rape and pillage with the best of history’s barbarians but Russians will not strap explosives to their chest and sacrifice themselves in some mission. They will instead force others to sacrifice themselves. Casualties that Russia has taken in the war with Ukraine are unconceivable/unconscionable to most of the western world. The core ethnic Russian population was, until recently, protected as the conscripts were harvested from other regions of Russia to become the cannon-fodder ...

09/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Dust Settles, Another Potential Storm Approaches On the Grains: Corn and soybeans pivoted around unchanged as futures paused following recent price pressure that resulted in downside breakouts from month-long sideways ranges for both markets. Bulls must defend support at last Friday’s lows for corn and Monday’s lows for soybeans to avoid further fund long liquidation. Wheat markets extended their price drops from the early September highs, led by HRW contracts. Traders will begin squaring positions ahead of Wednesday’s USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Annual Small Grains Summary. The Grain Stocks Report has a history of surprises and major market moves. Traders are also waiting to see further details from last week’s trade deal with China, including the size and scope of tariff reductions, resolution of other access barriers, the proration date/level for 2026 purchases and actual Chinese demand. USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report will set final 2025-26 ending stocks for corn and soybeans. Both are expected to be trimmed slightly from the September WASDE Report, with the average pre-report estimate at 1.918 billion bu. (down 4 million bu.) for corn and 324 million bu. (down 1 million bu.) for soybeans. However, quarterly corn stocks in particular, have been widely missed by analysts for years and therefore, a surprise is possible if not probable. The Sept. 1 stocks will include any revisions to last year’s corn and soybean production, which could be the source if there are any surprises. Sept. 1 wheat stocks will provide implied ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/28/2026 I am in Canada! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Yeah…they let me in on my US passport. They have been nice to me so far. This time I came by sea as my forefathers did some 386 years ago. I used a similar route to theirs, traveling up the Saint Lawrence Seaway to Quebec City. My mother was a Demars which was the Americanized version of the French Demers. My distant grandfather came to Quebec from Dieppe France with 3 sons, one of which was our linage. They were reportedly part of a contingent of 800 French families who had their trip paid for and who were bequeathed property in Canada by the King to encourage the populating of New France. My distant grandfather got his 3 sons established in Quebec and then returned home to France which he and the rest of family then never left. Our 14-day cruise left from Boston with an itinerary of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Iles de la Madeleine, the Saguenay Fjord, Quebec City and then Portland Maine on the return. My forefathers built a home along the river east of Quebec. First, is a picture of the St. Laurence seaway from where the Demers family once had a home. There is a monument to the Demers family on that property. Here is a picture of myself and my family from a previous visit around the monument. Later they fled ...

09/28/2026 Devilish Details; Soybeans Excluded from China Tariff Exemptions On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures traded lower overnight, led by sharp losses in the soybean market as details emerged from last week’s trade meeting between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Soybeans fell to the bottom of the month-long sideways trading range. Corn and wheat followed soybeans lower, though both remained well above last Friday’s intra-day lows. As is always the case in these trade meetings, the devil is in the details. China’s newly released list of U.S. products eligible for consideration for lower tariffs includes corn, sorghum, wheat, rice, cotton, beef, pork, poultry, dairy products, ethanol and vegetable oils and meal, including soyoil and soymeal. Soybeans for planting are also included, but non-seed soybeans — the category covering bulk shipments for crushing and food use — are absent. This doesn’t mean China won’t buy U.S. soybeans, but the extra 10% tariff on U.S. cargoes will remain, keeping a hurdle in place for purchases by Chinese commercial firms. There was no explanation for why soybeans were omitted, though it gives Beijing leverage in ongoing negotiations. Another key omission: distillers dried grains with solubles (DDGS) are not listed under 23033000, the code USDA uses for the product. Ethanol’s inclusion therefore should not be interpreted as equivalent coverage for its major feed coproduct. The terms of reference also clarify the meaning of the Trump administration’s “30-for-30” description. The two approved lists represent roughly $30 billion in goods in each direction, valued using calendar-year 2024 bilateral trade. Those ...

Grains set to start steady to slightly stronger as traders await word on Chinese trade concessions. In the Headlines The outcomes of President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping have been relayed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing a two-month extension of the current trade truce and Trade Representative Jameison Greer saying that there would be more details about tariff relief coming Monday. A "more favorable tariff treatment for $30 billion of non-sensitive goods" was referenced in a White House Fact Sheet released on Friday. The release mentioned the Board of Trade "addressing market access barriers in the agricultural sector," but the fact sheet otherwise lacked specifics. President Trump commented that he will be meeting again with Xi in November at the Asia Pacific economic conference in China and then in December at the G20 summit in Miami. Negotiations with Iran reached another impasse as President Trump rejected the latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military official threatened attacks on U.S. ships in the Indian Ocean if fighting resumes. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia continued. Monetary policy will be in focus with this week's reports on inflation and employment. Several central bank officials are also scheduled to speak throughout the week. The 30-year Treasury yield rose further last week to reach 5.48 percent, its highest rate since 2004. 30-year mortgage rates climbed back above 7 percent for the first time in almost two years. The odds for another Fed funds rate hike were at 64-percent likely for ...