The Commstock Report

Grains stand to rebound while markets find relative stability ahead of the elections. Crude oil remains the main guide for commodities as it reflects risks around war and inflation. In the Headlines The last trading session of October was marked by a substantial stock market selloff, triggered in part by concerning financial guidance from Intel that cut the tech company's share prices by 28 percent on the day. Broad pressure against the artificial intelligence sector came amid worries about rising interest rates and with the backdrop of uncertainty about this week's elections. The central bank kept its main lending rate unchanged on Wednesday, although the decision was not unanimous and the meeting was then followed up with a strong GDP report and a still-hot inflation reading. This week features Tuesday's midterm elections and Friday's jobs report. Along the way will be earnings reports from companies including Apple, McDonald's, and Toyota. "Indirect talks" continued between the U.S. and Iran as officials from both sides met with mediators from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, President Trump suggested there were still a few more targets to address involving Iran's nuclear capabilities, while Iran threatened "devastating strikes" if the U.S. resumes attacks.…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/30/2026 New Highs for Crude Oil, Lows for Metals PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update See gold and silver for leading the negative reactions to a tighter money outlook that were reinforced by Friday's crude oil rally. Hurting most other commodities, crude oil connected to a corresponding move up in soybean oil futures, allowing the soy complex to buoy the grain space. It helped soybeans that only one November soybean contract was issued for delivery on first notice day and it found a stopper. Nobody expected heavy delivery pressure in a carry market with strong enough basis as there were not going to be a lot of commercial traders willing to let go of the physical soybean supply they may own. There can relatedly be seasonal soybean price strength associated with the passing of first notice day for November futures because it marks the end of the most active selling period for farmers delivering on the new harvest, whether across the scale or against previously opened HTA's and basis contracts. Taking it back to the wider financial market influence, the direction of…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Chinese Wheat Rumor, Month-End Trade Tricks Or Treats? On the Grains Corn and soybeans modestly favored the downside in light, two-sided trade overnight. Both markets are holding above Thursday’s for-the-move lows as they try to stabilize after sharp price declines. December corn futures are poised for a fifth straight weekly decline and losses in seven of the last eight weeks. January soybeans are lower for a third straight week. Wheat futures mildly favored the upside overnight, led by nearby SRW contracts, amid China’s purchase inquiries. China’s state-owned Cofco was reportedly seeking offers for U.S. SRW shipments, which pulled wheat off its lows yesterday. Wheat is one of the commodities we anticipate China will buy as part of its commitment to purchase $17 billion – the 2026 level will be prorated to an unspecified amount – in U.S. ag goods aside from soybeans, as its crop faced both drought and flooding issues this year. Until tariffs are rolled back, purchases will be made by state-owned firms, which gives the Cofco talk some validity, though confirmation of purchases is needed to trigger more…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/29/2026 Where the Money Is Now and What Happens to it Next PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Baby Boomer generation includes individuals born between 1946 and 1964, following the end of World War II. Key Facts and Demographics from Google: Birth Years: 1946–1964 (the oldest members turn 80 in 2026) Population Size: Around 76 million babies were born in the U.S. during this period, with roughly 67 million surviving into recent years. Sub-groups: Often divided into early/older boomers (1946–1955) and late boomers/Generation Jones (1956–1964). Economic Position: Driven by post-WWII economic growth, the G.I. Bill, and rising asset values, older Americans (75 and older, largely comprising early boomers) hold a significant share of national wealth. Born in 1952, my wife and I are both early/older baby boomers. My brother is 7 years younger so is in the late boomer generation sub-group. He retired last month so officially joined the ranks. There are many businesses and industries that cater to meeting the needs of the baby boomers. One is the Holland America cruise line. On our recent trip up the St Lawrence…

10/29/2026 Bulls Searching for Anything to Stem the Tide Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning market talk this morning. On the Grains: Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight after closing at a new for-the-move low on Wednesday. January futures touched their lowest level since Aug. 19 overnight. The next band of support starts at the May high of $12.25 1/4. Corn and wheat markets pivoted narrowly around unchanged overnight, while holding above their recent lows. Grain and soy markets remain in liquidation mode as bulls seek something to stem the tide. The data point of interest today will be export sales for the week ended Oct. 22. Soybean sales will be big due to daily sales to China during the reporting week. Traders will focus on soybean demand aside from China – and unknown destinations, which are assumed to be China. Corn sales are expected to top 1 MMT. Traders are looking for signs from global end-users that prices have fallen to value levels. Corn export sales are lagging, especially to top buyer Mexico. For wheat, major Black Sea shipping disruptions haven’t translated into increased demand for U.S. supplies, with export commitments running well behind year-ago and…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/28/2026 Lula, Lula, Lula… for a Fourth Time Lula PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update On my inaugural trip to Brazil to check out our Ag competition in December 2001, Lula de Silva was running for president of Brazil for the first time. He was doing well in their polls. Brazilian currency and equity markets were concerned over the prospect of the election of a communist… socialist… populist…no one knew for sure. No one knew for sure whether he was a Castro or worse. The Brazilian currency plunged ahead of the election… selling the rumor of this radical being elected.  The rumor became fact on October 27th 2002 when Lula won election with 61.27% of the vote. What soon became apparent was that in terms of judging South American governance…Lula was a moderate. We were investing in Brazil at that time and the dip in the real gave us a favorable currency exchange. I was thinking, "Thank You Lula". I told you in a previous report how cheap the beer was when a dollar bought you 3 reals. After his re-election Sunday,…

10/28/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Footing Difficult to Find on Slippery Slope On the Grains: Soybeans and corn showed mild price strength overnight as both markets try to stabilize from the recent sharp price slides. Winter wheat markets are also trying to firm amid corrective buying. Fresh news is limited, leaving technicals and money flow to direct price action. Both have been extremely bearish, with technicals eroding as funds continue to actively sell. January soybeans continue to pivot around the 100-day moving average, currently at $12.46. A bounce from that level is needed before there are any signs of a short-term low. Monday’s low at $12.39 stands as near-term support. Failure at that level would open the downside to the psychological $12 mark and 200-day moving average just below it. December corn futures are pivoting around $4.50 and trading well below the short-, intermediate- and long-term moving averages. The first hurdle for bulls is the 5-day moving average around $4.54. For perspective on the persistence of the sharp downtrend, December corn hasn’t closed above the 5-day moving average since Oct. 7. There’s a broad band of support from $4.49 1/2 to the contract low of…

10/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video The Real(ity) Of the Soybean Market On the Grains Soybean futures firmed overnight amid corrective buying after bouncing from a spike of the 100-day moving average on Monday. Corn futures traded modestly lower overnight, while wheat markets favored the downside aside from nearby SRW contracts. Brazil’s currency rate has moved to the leading focal point for soybean traders. After a plunge on Monday, soybean traders will monitor the Brazilian real. Overseas trading overnight showed the Brazilian real/U.S. dollar easing from Monday’s sharp price action. While the exchange rate isn’t likely to influence China’s soybean buying decisions, it will influence other global end-users for soybeans and other commodities. Soybean Harvest Surges Above Average; Corn Still Lagging Soybean harvest advanced 15 percentage points to 79%, two points ahead of average. Corn harvest increased 16 points to 60%, though that was still six points behind average. Note: Due to the government shutdown, there’s no year-ago comparison and the average paces continue to reflect 2021-2024. Seasonal pressure should begin to ease for soybeans as harvest moves into the final phases. Corn harvest pressure will persist as on-farm storage fills up and extra bushels move…

10/26/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat In Extended Daily, Weekly Losing Strings On the Grains: Soybean futures faced heavy selling pressure overnight after President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won Brazil’s runoff election. But November soybeans failed to find sustained selling below last week’s low of $12.35 3/4, which is followed by support at the 100-day moving average around $12.29 1/4. Bulls may have to defend those levels today. Corn traded slightly lower on spillover from soybeans, marking a for the move low. A band of support for December corn extends from $4.50 to the June low of $4.25 3/4. Wheat traded in a varied tone, with SRW contracts mildly firmer, while HRW and spring wheat contracts modestly favored the downside. The Lula win will pressure the Brazilian real and create headwinds for U.S. ag exports, especially soybeans. Brazilian agricultural products have gained wider access in China during Lula’s three previous terms, snaring more market share for soybeans. But the Lula win isn't as damaging to U.S. soybean export potential as headlines appear. China was only going to buy 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans for 2026-27 and the following tow years. That's why Beijing kept…

Grains may face another weaker start connected to weekend selling in the cash market, but speculators may make a tentative attempt at buying up any further weakness. Positioning for this week's Fed meeting and next week's election will be heavily influential. In the Headlines Headlines were heavily election-focused, as were most of President Trump's weekend comments. There was also international attention on Brazil's presidential election between the incumbent President Lula da Silva and the challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, who was the favorite in prediction markets. The outcome was expected to be determined by Sunday afternoon. There was still more that could shape the market's Sunday night open based on potential developments in the war with Iran. President Trump suggested on Sunday morning that a new offensive against Iran could be imminent as Iran further refuses to make concessions toward an updated ceasefire agreement. Markets trade with anticipation for the Wednesday finish of the October Federal Reserve Bank meeting. An interest rate decision comes at 1 pm central with Chairman Warsh's press conference following 30 minutes later. Fed funds rate odds closed last week at 90 percent likely for no rate hike this month. Chances were implied at about 69 percent in…