The Commstock Report

Grain were called to a slightly stronger start on additional war risk premium entering the market. Better weather was an offsetting negative as light rains swept across the Midwest, with more moisture in the forecast later this week. Traders were still likely to approach the grains with caution ahead of the Wednesday crop report. In the Headlines Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that his government was rejecting the agreement to disarm Hamas that was developed out of the Board of Peace coalition backed by President Trump. The news was likely to stoke further tension between the two leaders as they also attempt coordination on negotiations with Iran. Talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz were set back again by Iran issuing a new list of demands that included termination of the U.S. blockade and compensation for war damages. Iran attacked an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck an oil terminal in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, as well as a port on the Red Sea. Fighting was heavy between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. Russia was targeting the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and its second largest city, Kharkiv.…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/07/2026 Long Straddle or Short Strangle PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update CME Group described Thursday's market with the newsletter title "Low Volatility Ahead of Data Day." Financial market volatility was particularly subdued as stock index futures hovered just under new record highs from the previous session. The reference to Data Day centered on the Friday morning jobs report, which did inject a moderate dose of volatility into markets because of employment contracting rather than growing as expected. It was 'bad news is good news' for interest rate expectations, which is why lower bond yields were initially accompanied by a softer dollar and stronger stock futures. Silver and gold jumped immediately to extend overnight gains, but the metals and most markets quickly settled and reverted as traders weighed concerns about the bad news on jobs still being bad for the economy. Consider whether the potential for growing uncertainty about monetary policy and the economy may fuel heightened market volatility in the weeks ahead, not only for the stock market but also for commodities including grains and livestock. For the stock market, monitor…

08/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Today’s An Up Day – So Far On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are firmer early this morning amid corrective buying. Corn is working on a modest gain for the week, while soybeans and the wheat markets are lower. The same factors – weather, geopolitics and Chinese demand remain in focus, while traders are also starting to position themselves ahead of USDA’s August crop reports next Wednesday. Nothing has changed aside from the direction of money flow – and that is light. Weather remains non-threatening for corn and soybeans. Clusters of rain are on the radar this morning, with near- to above-normal rainfall likely over the Corn Belt during the next two weeks. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other, slowing grain shipments from the Black Sea region. But there hasn’t been a pickup in export demand for U.S. wheat. In the Middle East, markets wait to see if Iran and Oman can reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. China continues to actively buy U.S. new-crop soybeans. USDA should confirm more business via daily sales today. There was talk of China booking additional cargoes on…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/06/2026 US Wealth Disparity after 250 Years-Where it Goes from Here PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 I think that it was decades ago when I first heard the warning, but after a big stock market rally to what was then new highs, a wealthy stock market investor retorted that he was worried "that the pitch forks would be coming for them soon". Here we are many years and many rallies later after making new market highs regularly and after the markets recently created the first US $trillionaire…the poor have been left out of any share of this wealth creation… yet their pitchforks have yet to show up. No mob…not yet. I do believe that there is a large growing number of Americans who could be described as angry, disgruntled and disillusioned from which a mob could form. According to our president, what we need to fear is the "communists". Never mind as this country 250 years into its creation is about as far away from being communist as it's possible to get. Most Americans, including myself, do not have an…

08/06/2026 China’s Bean Buying Frenzy Continues Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat narrowly pivoted around unchanged during a quiet overnight session, as traders continued to monitor weather, geopolitical events and Chinese demand. Traders will also start to position themselves ahead of the Aug. 12 USDA reports. China’s state-owned firms booked at least another 13 cargoes of U.S. soybeans (roughly 800,000 MT) on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the situation. That’s in line with the 12 to 15 cargoes export sources indicated. Expect another flurry of daily sales announcements. This is the second wave of big soybean purchases China’s state firms have made since late last week as they have taken advantage of the sharp price break in futures, pushing total volumes for 2026-27 to around 6 MMT – about one-quarter of its 25 MMT commitment via the trade deal. Crop Estimating Season Hitting Full Stride Private firms are releasing their corn and soybean yield and production forecasts ahead of USDA’s first survey-based estimates on Aug. 12, which will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. Wire services will release average estimates…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/05/2026 What is Driving Beef Demand? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Throughout this impressive run in the cattle market, beef demand has remained remarkably strong despite record high prices. In fact, we have even seen demand grow and alongside record supply this has pushed prices higher yet. Anyone watching this unfold has wondered just how long the trend can continue. How long can we sustain these prices? Price fatigue has to kick in at some point, right? If not for the producer then surely for the consumer. That's the conversation we were having 6 months ago, and 6 months before that, yet here we are, with feeder cattle still over $340, fed cattle still over $230, and Choice boxes still moving at over $360/cwt. In 2025 alone, retail beef sales surpassed 6.2 billion pounds, valued at over $45 billion in sales despite record high prices and uncertainty in the marketplace. This was a 4.3% increase in overall volume and more than 12% increase in total sales compared to 2024. This trend is expected to continue with some analysts projecting a more…

08/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains Trumping Chinese Demand On the Grains: Soybeans and corn extended their sharp price slides from the late-July highs overnight as rains are pushing across the western Corn Belt (primarily Iowa) this morning with multiple additional rainfall chances expected over the next two weeks. For soybeans, the timely rains during the key pod-fill stage are trumping the recent pickup in Chinese demand. August rains are difficult for traders to ignore.Wheat futures are trying to buck the trend amid further grain shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region, though it will take a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. wheat to turn that into a price-bullish situation. USDA announced another 132,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China on Tuesday. Additional daily sales are expected today. China is using the sharp break in prices to make goodwill purchases ahead of the planned meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington on Sept. 24. Since the July 24 peak in November soybean futures, USDA has announced daily new-crop soybean sales of 884,000 MT to China, with another 514,150 MT to unknown destinations (likely China). And there were daily sales of…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/04/2026 There Will Be a Test PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I am on vacation…you are not. I leaving you some homework to read on a subject that we will all have to become more familiar with…AI. In the realm of human development nothing comparable has ever served as the accelerant of the advancement of any species on earth, the galaxy or beyond for all we know, comparable to AI. Technology was already accelerating. AI will throw gas on the fire. Two generations ago, my wife’s grandmother, a teacher, said she drew a picture of a horseless carriage for her students. The first horseless carriages did not have odometers or good brakes. They had to figure out by experience what safety measures should be added. AI is in a similar state of development. We now hold a computer connected to the world via internet in the palm of our hands and now we are looking at human knowledge exploding exponentially on the basis of AI. It is only in its conception and the beginning of construction of what is envisioned. Data…

08/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Key Near-Term Boundaries Established On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are favoring the downside early this morning as they failed to sustain strength from early in the overnight session. Near-term trading boundaries have been set in wide ranges from the July 24 highs to the Aug. 3 lows. December corn futures are holding near the middle of their nearly 34-cent range, while November soybeans and December SRW wheat futures are in the lower end of their respective 81- and 78-cent ranges. That gives traders room to maneuver markets as they price in weather, crop conditions, geopolitics, Chinese demand and other factors. USDA on Monday confirmed daily soybean sales of 488,000 MT to China and 136,150 MT to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. More daily sales should be coming this morning. But traders are expecting it, so price impact will be limited unless any additional sales are stronger than anticipated. Russia and Ukraine continue their attacks in the Black Sea. A drone attack overnight hit a Turkish-owned vessel and seriously injured three crew members near Russia's Novorossiysk port. But markets have grown numb to the constant headlines and the Black…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/03/2026 Personal Protohistory Introspection…Now Shared PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update How much do you have to work to accumulate wealth? A lot of people think that a 40-hour work week is all that a company should be able to require of anyone to be a full-time occupation and that is fine. My young son works a 4-day 10-hour shift at a company and then takes the opportunity when offered to work another 8-hour shift at time and a half. He still has two days off to do something else. He details boats and vehicles. No one is going to do more than maybe pay the bills working a 40-hour week and given affordability issues today, the bills will exceed most paychecks. I came home from college to farm in 1973. My dad told me that it was the shock of his life and had not expected it. He accepted it though and was a great partner from then on. The first 10 years or longer I learned what I didn't know I needed to learn. I got no regular paycheck but…