The Commstock Report

Grains may have strength at the start as corn attempts a rebound that could easily falter as Monday unfolds. Heightened volatility in the energy trade likely remains wider influence along with financial market sentiment surrounding an inflation report on Wednesday. In the Headlines Grain futures may take more time to digest Friday's crop report and the bearish corn yield surprise. With most looking for a slight reduction, the corn yield rose 2.7 bushels on the month to 181.2. Soybean yield was revised higher to 53.1 for what would represent a new record. A more bullish outlook for demand absorbed the additional soybean supply and helped turn soybean futures toward a higher close. December corn dropped 20 1/2 after rebounding lightly from testing the 30-cent trading limit. President Trump announced a deal with Russia to supply diesel fuel to the U.S., contrasting with the sanctions banning Russian oil imports. Traders are watching see if Russian diesel exports now normalize after Russia had placed a ban on shipments as its refineries faced attacks from Ukraine. Some analysts were in the news questioning the agreed upon totals as being insignificant, especially compared to diesel production totals currently shutdown as a result of the…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/09/2026 Two in a Row for Bearish Corn Supply Surprises PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The October crop reports were bearish on almost all accounts. Like the Sept. 30 grain stocks report, corn stood out for showing the biggest surprise, this time with yield jumping 2.7 bushels per acre on the month to 181.2. Most views were looks for a lower number, including with the thought that USDA should not have room to be too aggressive in either direction given the slimmer availability of samplings that could be collected from a delayed start to the Midwest harvest. As one could be suspicious of, the corn yield change was not linked to a sharp reduction of the harvested acreage percentage. Compared to the corn yield shock, it was far less surprising even that the soybean yield was taken up to what would be a new record of 53.1 bushels per acre. Also bearish was the report for wheat as exports were cut despite the higher production estimate coming into the balance sheet. Reasons for the corn yield surprise have to be surmised…

10/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Don’t Expect Big October Yield Changes On the Grains Corn and soybeans have firmed early this morning, while wheat futures are narrowly mixed. All three markets are trading in broad holding patterns as traders await USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. Reaction to that data will determine price moves over the final two-plus hours of trade today – and could set the near-term price trend. Historical Look at USDA’s October Yield Changes There have only been two years each in which USDA has adjusted its October corn and soybean yield estimates up or down by a bushel or more. Recent history suggests major yield changes are unlikely this month. Corn Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 2 Past 10 years (2016-24): decreased 5 years; increased 5 5-year avg. (2020-24): -0.2 bu. = 178.3 10-year avg. (2016-24): no change = 178.5 5-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 10-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 5-year biggest increase: 0.2 bu. (2021, 2024) = 178.7 10-year biggest increase: 1.9 bu. (2019) = 180.4 Soybeans Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 1; unchanged…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/08/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 3 of 3 The political campaign for 'Regenerative Ag' did not come from Democratic Ag Secretary candidate Chris Jones who supports it but from the GOP candidate for IA Governor, Zack Lahn, who claims to be a Regenerative Ag farmer. When he describes his farm to the public, he says that "he farms weird". I think what that means is that Lahn is walking his talk. Lahn also claims to have "Big Ag" in his sights as a villain. Politicians need to have a villain. For Chris Jones and Zack Lahn to have such similar views is a most unusual policy distribution politically.  What practices make up regenerative Ag? AI says regenerative Ag is a philosophy which in the political world becomes an ideology. AI says that…Regenerative agriculture is a holistic farming philosophy focused on restoring soil health, boosting biodiversity, and improving water retention. Rather than relying on a strict legal definition, it is defined by a core set of practices designed to work with natural ecosystems rather…

10/08/2026 Isaias Intensifies; Calm Before USDA’s Friday Storm Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical difficulties. On the Grains: Grain and soy markets traded quietly in relatively tight ranges overnight amid a lack of fresh news. Corn and winter wheat markets modestly favored the upside, while soybeans traded mildly lower. Today’s daytime session should feature positioning ahead of Friday’s USDA crop reports. Traders are looking for a smaller corn crop estimate and little change for soybeans. Corn and wheat ending stocks are expected to increase from last month, as Sept. 1 stocks came in higher than anticipated, while soybean carryover is expected to decline slightly. Crude oil futures rose sharply overnight as Hurricane Isaias intensified and is expected to make landfall along the U.S. Gulf Coast late Friday or early Saturday. Offshore producers had already shut in roughly 25% of crude output and 16% of natural gas production through the region, according to the federal Marine Minerals Administration. However, forecasters are increasingly confident that the hurricane will land east of major energy assets off the coast of Louisiana and Texas, resulting in only short-term shutdowns. Heavy rains are expected along the Gulf…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/07/2026 Yield Cuts Needed For $6 Corn – Brazil Almost Has a New President PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After a window tour across Iowa last week, I could only identify three soybean fields that were not ready for a combine. (One of them happened to be mine). I was surprised at how much had matured. Some fields have been ready for nearly three weeks while the rain system played out, with grain quality suffering accordingly. Pretty much every corner of the state is wet, just varying to what degree. Farmers in Northern Iowa that got less rain have already begun harvest, meanwhile Central Iowa received over 15" in the month of September alone. Cleary that region will take more time for things to dry out. One more observation I would make, is that while the corn looked good, the soybeans as a general statement, are some of the best I have seen. They are clean, extremely uniform and should bring well above average APH for many. This reinforced our belief that while corn yield estimates could be revised lower, soybean…

10/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soymeal Key to Soybean Price Strength On the Grains Soybeans and soymeal mildly extended Tuesday’s strong gains overnight. Corn, wheat and soyoil futures pulled back amid corrective selling. November soybeans pushed back above $13 and into the month-long sideways range on the daily chart after a failed downside breakout. The stronger Brazilian real is supportive, along with the slowed harvest pace and crop quality concerns in the western Corn Belt. While the delayed harvest and reduced soybean quality in the western Corn Belt are primarily cash market issues, they are compounding the supply squeeze faced by crushers that need to secure enough quality supplies to meet their near-term soymeal commitments. Crushers bet on an active and early harvest. Instead, they got a delayed harvest with lower quality soybeans. If soymeal is higher, soybeans have little choice but to trade higher. Note: China is on a week-long holiday, but that doesn’t mean its state firms didn’t book some U.S. soybeans through their international trading houses. It would be surprising if Sinograin and/or Cofco didn’t use the recent price break below $13 to book some additional U.S. cargoes. Geopolitically, Russia and Ukraine…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/06/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 of 3 Iowa clean water advocate and candidate for Secretary of Agriculture Chris Jones collated his collective thoughts on the structure of our Agriculture into the book 'Swine Republic'. Given today's genetics and production practices we start out each growing season with 300 bpa yield potential for corn. That says something in and of itself. At one time, we had 200 bpa as a yield goal and now the state yield average exceeds that. With 300 bpa as our goal, something always happens each season to trim the fluff off the yield. In 2025 it was wind damage and this year it was the record July heat. The level of subsoil moisture reserves and planting date are the first dominant variants to achieving full yield potential. In 1973 we had livestock chores to do morning and night and had a 6-row planter (which we eventually traded up to a 12-row). We would get 50-80 acres planted in a day. I farmed about 400 acres back then. Now…

10/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bulls Cautiously Trying to Regroup On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher overnight as all three markets tried to rebound from last week’s sharp corrective losses. Corn and soybeans are being supported by slowed harvest paces, though a week of open weather will lead to a rush of harvest activity as farmers race against building disease pressure and quality loss. Soybean traders will also watch the Brazilian real, which surged on Monday as investor favorite Flávio Bolsonaro emerged from the first round of elections as favorite to take the presidency in a runoff on Oct. 25. A stronger real reduces Brazilian farmer selling and increases competitiveness of U.S. soybeans on the global market. Grain traders will also start to position ahead of Friday’s USDA reports. December corn futures have formed a bear flag on the daily chart, with the triple-bottom at $4.95 serving as key support at the bottom of the flag. November soybeans are trying to work back into the month-long sideways range, needing a close above $12.88 to accomplish that. Wheat futures are working on day four of corrective gains as traders rebuild some geopolitical risk premium…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/05/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 3 I never thought of myself or our farm in terms of being, or representing, what politically has become termed 'Big Agriculture' the way that the politicos define and portray it. I am just a farmer trying to be the most productive that I can be to the benefit of my family and community. We are a legacy farm family as we have farmed land in which we have had title for over a century. We received our 'Century Farm' award at the Iowa State Fair from Iowa Ag Secretary Mike Naig. I like Mike and believe that he has represented and promoted the interests of my family and other farm families in the state.  I am not politically active in any kind of aggressive sense. I have rarely made financial contributions or participated in organized political events. I consider myself an independent. I do express my opinion on policy impacting Ag as this report is opinionated and I advocate for our interests. Often that appears…