Joe Camp

Grains are called to open quietly steady unless the stock index futures are snowballing lower by that point. Last week showed cracks in the recent grain price strength as the broader financial market flipped risk-off. A late Friday recovery for stocks looks more likely to extend into temporary stability that puts the attention of grain traders back onto Chinese buying. We will discuss moving to reward the soybean price rally this week. In the Headlines Reduced flights were the latest product of government shutdown cuts, with shrunken and unpaid air traffic control teams causing the Trump administration to cancel thousands of flights. Scheduled air traffic is set to decline by 10 percent this week and up to 20 percent if the shutdown continues. A new development on shutdown affecting SNAP payments also came on Friday evening with a court order that suspended an earlier ruling requiring the government to pay full benefits. China followed through on removing certain controls against metals and other elements heavily used in the production of smart phones and other technology hardware. Export restrictions were suspended on Friday for lithium and most of the rare earth minerals, and then on Sunday for gallium, germanium, and other…

Grains look set up for light back and fill action to start the week. Traders will continue to respond to the follow-through or lack thereof on Chinese crop purchases. In the Headlines China headlines had January soybean futures rallying 55 cents last week to finish higher for a third week in a row. December corn gained 8 1/4 last week and Chicago wheat was up 21 1/2 cents. December live cattle dropped $4.25 and November feeders were down $15.42. December hogs were down just 62 cents but went lower for a fifth straight week. Private sources have reported up to seven cargos of U.S. soybeans sold to China amid the trade agreement, which was only a small start toward what the treasury secretary said China has promised to buy before the end of the year. Soybean price action into the new week will stay guided by speculation about new sales to China, which are not being reported officially during the shutdown. With China's state-owned grain buyers expected to build a reserve with U.S. beans, it was wondered whether a multi-million ton purchase would be announced by Chinese officials for a show of follow-through. Soybean basis should indicate how much the…

Grains are called to open moderately firmer on optimism surrounding a potential U.S./China trade deal. Comments to the contrary or something new from President Trump could still pop up to sway sentiment for Monday's trading session. In the Headlines News about the China trade meeting in Malaysia was focused on the Chinese side confirming there had been a "basic consensus" reached while word from the U.S. treasury secretary was that the latest 100 percent tariff threat is now "off the table." The word "framework" was also used again to suggest that there would be something tangible for President Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss, but nothing complete enough to put signatures on when the two leaders meet Thursday. President Trump announced a 10 percent increase of tariffs against Canada after having suspended trade negotiations last week in response to Canada using clips from Ronald Reagan in an anti-tariff advertisement. More may come from the new spat this week as Trump attends the economic summit in South Korea along with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump met with Brazilian President Lula on the sidelines of the conference in Malaysia, reportedly agreeing then to immediately continue trade negotiations with their respective teams.…

Grains are called to open steady or slightly firmer in follow up of a positive finish last week. In the Headlines Friday was a relatively quiet session for the grains, but a fast mover for cattle. Cattle futures gapped down sharply on the report of President Trump saying, "We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that's going to bring the price down." Speculation is that the news tied to Trump's meeting earlier in the week with Argentina's president, so a removal of tariffs could be possible for beef imports from Brazil and Argentina. Columbia was the subject of the president's ire on Sunday with Truth Social post that called out the Columbian president as "an illegal drug leader" and announced that foreign aid payments and subsidies will no longer be granted to Columbia. Having been a consistent top five buyer of U.S. corn, wheat, and pork, Columbia is a key destination for shipments via the Pacific Northwest ports, which can reach Columbia's Pacific coast without having to transit the Panama Canal. The Israel/Hamas ceasefire was being tested by Israel resuming airstrikes in response to alleged attacks on Israeli soldiers by militants in Gaza.…

Grains are called lower at the open following a bearish finish on Friday and the subsequent escalation of the trade war with China after the market closed. New developments could occur leading into and through the overnight session, particularly from any possible comments to come from President Trump. In the Headlines Grains started back lower on Thursday last week as tensions with China fared up, first with new Chinese restrictions on U.S. computer chips, more controls on rare earth exports, and reciprocal charges against U.S. ships. The U.S. fees against Chinese vessels and vice-versa are set to go into effect on Tuesday. The grain selloff was extended on Friday as President Trump suggested cancelling his meeting planned with China's Xi Jinping for the end of the month. A follow-up post from Trump on Truth Social announced, "the United States will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software." The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was holding as of Sunday morning while the Islamic militants reportedly prepare to release 20 living hostages on Monday in partial exchange…

Barring new developments that could still pop up before the open on issues like trade or the Middle East peace deal, grains should face a slight sell off to the start the week as short hedgers catch up after a busy two days of harvest. In the Headlines Eyes were on the Middle East as Israel continued strikes against Gaza despite calls from President Trump for the bombing to stop. Hamas fighters have agreed to parts of a peace deal that involves sending home Israeli hostages. Trump has sent his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to Egypt to advance the terms of Israel's withdrawal from Gaza that would precede the formation of a new Palestinian government. President Trump was on hand at Naval Station Norfolk to celebrate the Navy's 250th anniversary. Trump's command of the military was otherwise making headlines over the weekend as the National Guard was being deployed in Chicago to help quell protests over active immigration enforcement in the city. Plans to send federal troops into Portland were temporarily blocked by a judge's ruling on Saturday. More details are expected by Tuesday on economic aid payments for soybean farmers hurt by tariffs. New developments…

Grains look to open steady to slightly softer on accelerating harvest and the lack of progress for Chines trade negotiations. Eyes are on how the financial markets act in response to government shutdown developments. In the Headlines There was little evidence of progress toward averting a government shutdown this weekend, only a plan for President Trump to meet on Monday with both parties' top leaders from the House and Senate. Lawmakers mostly continued to dig in on contentions with Trump's withholding of funds from foreign aid and healthcare programs. Democrats call it a bluff, but the Trump administration has been directing federal agencies to prepare for mass layoffs that during the last shutdown in 2018 amounted to 340,000 out of 800,000 non-military government employees being furloughed. Most USDA programs and crop reports are put on hold during a shutdown but the FSA can remain open for making payments, albeit with possibly even shorter staff and fewer open locations. Silver futures have been playing catch up to gold and are closing in on their all-time high from when the price hit $49.82 in 2011. December silver jumped $3.70 per ounce last week and finished near the new contract high following another…

Light back-and-fill expected for the grains after a firmer Friday finish. Traders wait for word on how Chinese trade meetings are progressing while preparing for the Fed decision coming Wednesday. In the Headlines U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was set to start trade meetings with top level Vice Premier from China. The talks will span Sunday to Wednesday in Spain. These plans were just announced by the Treasury Department last Thursday, coming as a surprise after Bessent had previously suggested that he was not likely to meet in person with Chinese negotiators until late October or early November. There will be additional tension after the U.S. government sanctioned more Chinese companies last week, before China opened new anti-dumping cases against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers this weekend. Focus is on the central bank meeting this week. The Fed will announce an expected interest rate cut on Wednesday at 1 pm central with a press conference following 30 minutes later. Traders look convinced that this first rate cut since late 2024 will be just one-quarter of a point, but the market has lately displayed small odds for a half-point reduction. House Republicans have started work on a stopgap bill to fund the government…