Joe Camp

Grains are called a couple cents lower on more tariff negativity and with help from a mostly favorable forecast for this week. In the Headlines Leading the weekend's headlines was that President Trump announced a 30 percent tariff for both Mexico and the European Union. The notifications came in the form of letters that were similarly sent to about two dozen other countries over the course of last week. Like for the countries, Mexico and the EU will have until August 1st to possibly negotiate a deal. Mexico is a top-five buyer of U.S. corn, soybeans, wheat, beef and pork. Spain leads the European nations as the fifth largest buyer of U.S. corn this year. Government accountants tallied up higher tariff revenues in June, with the import duty collections helping swing the federal budget into surplus for the month. The year-to-date deficit was still $1.34 trillion to add to the running government debt total of about $36.6 trillion. Interest on the debt is projected at $1.2 trillion for the current fiscal year. President Trump mentioned the exorbitant financing costs in social media posts last week when he referred to Fed Chair Jerome Powell as "Too Late" for waiting so long…

Grains are called lower at the open on anxiety ahead of the tariff deadline and after President Trump's speech in Iowa did not include the announcement of new trade promises made by China. In the Headlines Tariffs are the top focus at the start of the new week. The next deadline is Wednesday for President Trump to decide on reciprocal tariff hikes that were paused 90 days ago. Some countries could be granted further exemption if deemed that they are currently bargaining in good faith. Talks with Canada and the European Union were ongoing last week. The possibility is open for various agreements or 'framework' for agreements to be announced before the deadline. Vietnam was the latest to reach a deal that allows U.S. goods to be tariff free while U.S. importers would have to pay 20 percent on goods from Vietnam and 40 percent on goods re-imported through Vietnam from other countries such as China. President Trump spoke in Iowa on Thursday night, but he did not announce a Chinese agreement on agricultural purchases as some sources had speculated. Trump talked about the budget bill saving family farms from the estate tax, about "taking in hundreds of billions of…

Grains are called slightly softer at the open as market participants focus on favorable weather and negative technical leanings. Tentative traders otherwise await fresh fundamental input from Monday's stocks and acreage reports. In the Headlines Developments regarding the big budget bill will likely dominate headlines this week. The Senate advanced the bill for discussion and cleared the way for voting on proposed amendments. If passed in the Senate, the bill would be sent back to the House of Representatives for final approval. President Trump is pushing to sign the legislation before Independence Day on Friday. Part of the Senate's revisions to the budget included cuts for wind and solar tax credits. A new provision would tax wind and solar projects completed after 2027 if they use Chinese parts or materials. The bill would still support and extend the 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit, with the text including limitations against imported feedstocks such as used cooking oils. The ceasefire with Iran remained fragile as Israel turned its focus back to Gaza over the weekend. There may still be further retaliation for Israel's strikes against an Iranian prison last week. Also making headlines were comments from the head of the UN International…

The start of a heatwave may inject weather risk premium into the grains to open the week, assuming the commodity space also benefits from the tailwind of oil prices rallying in response to the weekend strike against Iran. In the Headlines U.S. forces used bunker-buster bombs to strike three nuclear facilities in Iran this weekend. Iranian leaders tried to downplay the effectiveness of the operation, but President Trump said the underground nuclear sites were "completely and fully obliterated." There will additional developments according to Iran's response and as U.S. officials continue to give briefings to the public. All markets should show reaction to the widening conflict, but crude oil remains the most sensitive as one possible point of retaliation includes Iran attempting to close the Strait of Hormuz, which has recently handled some 20 percent of global oil flows. Another Russian strike against the Ukrainian port city of Odesa occurred late last week. There was damage to a railroad after what Ukraine reported was an attack by 86 drones. An earlier skirmish around Odesa was thought to have contributed to sparking the 25 cent rally for wheat futures on Wednesday last week. The recent return of focus on the port…

Grains look to follow through on a firmer close from Friday, with war in the Middle East and bullishness over biofuel news being the top inputs. Upside may be limited by a favorable weather forecast. In the Headlines Back and forth missile attacks continue between Israel and Iran. Israel's strikes against Iran's nuclear assets rallied crude oil futures by nearly $5 on Friday. The U.S. government is taking a measured approach as President Trump urges Iran to accept a nuclear deal. Soybean oil futures were locked limit up for most of the Friday session in response to the government's announcement of higher than expected renewable fuel volume obligations. A substantial increase of the biomass-based diesel fuel target contributed to the total biofuel blending requirement rising from 22.33 billion gallons this year to 24.02 billion gallons in 2026 and 24.46 billion gallons in 2027. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held this week with the central bank making a decision on interest rates Wednesday afternoon. Market odds are showing an expectation for the fed funds rate to stay unchanged at 4.5 percent. The White House is reportedly scaling back on immigration raids for hotels, restaurants, farms, and meatpacking plants.…