Joe Camp

Grain were called to a slightly stronger start on additional war premium and returning weather risk. In the Headlines The crop yield debate continues to build based on fresh reference points from last week's USDA report. Corn and soybean yields were down by more than anticipated by the average trade guesses, with corn yield at 180.7 versus the prior projected trend of 183 and soybean yield at 52.7 versus 53 from July. The arguments for higher or lower depend on views about damage already done before early August rains, and how much the drought-stricken Plains can pull away from national averages propped up by the Midwest. Relatedly, traders were discounting the large corn acreage increase for what may not make it to harvest. Among the standout individual state yield estimates, Iowa and Indiana were predicted with new corn yield records while Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were projected with record soybean yields. Part of the assessment will include the possibility of rains over the last week having tilted more damaging than beneficial because of all the flooding. Ukraine was the common subject of headlines over the weekend for launching "one of its largest aerial attacks of the war." Russia and Ukraine…

Grain were called to a slightly stronger start on additional war risk premium entering the market. Better weather was an offsetting negative as light rains swept across the Midwest, with more moisture in the forecast later this week. Traders were still likely to approach the grains with caution ahead of the Wednesday crop report. In the Headlines Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that his government was rejecting the agreement to disarm Hamas that was developed out of the Board of Peace coalition backed by President Trump. The news was likely to stoke further tension between the two leaders as they also attempt coordination on negotiations with Iran. Talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz were set back again by Iran issuing a new list of demands that included termination of the U.S. blockade and compensation for war damages. Iran attacked an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck an oil terminal in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, as well as a port on the Red Sea. Fighting was heavy between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. Russia was targeting the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and its second largest city, Kharkiv.…

Weather leanings shaped expectations for a softer market start. Just as it was raining in Chicago on Friday to help dampen bullishness in grains, traders will focus on more rain coming to break up the heat in the Eastern Corn Belt forecast. War risks were still the possible wildcard for turning prices back higher. The week should also feature follow-up on Chinese export demand and fresh news for biofuels. In the Headlines The end of the week/end of the month brought out position-squaring pressure against the grains, led by wheat futures, which had been the best performer of July. September Chicago wheat futures kept a gain of 50 cents for the month while the Kansas City contract was up 96 1/2. December corn finished July up 28 cents and November soybeans were up 43 3/4. Traders will keep a close eye on the stock market after last week's volatility surrounding nervousness over technology company earnings and the potential overleveraging of investors in the artificial intelligence sector. There was contagion from South Korea's stock market selling off sharply due to huge losses in names including Samsung Electronics, one of the highly-levered single-stock ETFs that retail investors were getting blown out of.…

Grains were expected to develop a firmer tone on rising war risk premium, both involving Iran and Russia/Ukraine. Weather remained threatening but the present heat was balanced against a wetter forecast for the week ahead. In the Headlines Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea this weekend, linking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that Russia was providing satellite data to help Iran's attacks in the Middle East. Ukraine also continued to launch drones against power infrastructure on the Crimean Peninsula and Russia responded with strikes near Ukraine's capital of Kiev. The latest hostilities dampened the likelihood of the tacit agreement returning for Russia and Ukraine not to disrupt exports. Tariffs led the headlines at the end of the week as President Trump issued new levies on over 80 countries covering 99 percent of U.S. trade volume. The tariffs are structured under an alternative Section 301 authority. Two small businesses became the first to fight against the new order with a suit filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade. Only one flash sale was announced listing China as the buyer of U.S. soybeans last week, with an unknown destination attached with two more cargos of soybeans on…