Joe Camp

Grains are expected to start steady to slightly firmer in follow up of a mild rebound on Friday. Trading volumes remain extremely light as farmers are busy with the start of harvest and while market participants wait on yield results from the field. In the Headlines The S&P 500 stock index lost about 3 percent in in just 3 days following last week’s Federal Reserve meeting. The central bank chose not to raise interest rates, as expected, but comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell were more hawkish than anticipated as he indicated that rates would stay elevated for a while. Forecasts for interest rates next year included only two rate reductions. Tight monetary policy remains necessary while inflation still runs hot, but now there is also growing concern over the health of the economy in general. A government shutdown is still a growing risk after the House of Representatives failed to pass a continuing resolution last week. The House and Senate will reconvene on Tuesday this week to make more attempts at passing funding bills before various public services would be suspended on October 1st. Ships left the Black Sea with grain from Ukraine last week, despite the export deal…

Grains are expected to open under slight selling pressure as chart support is tested below the market. The large speculators are seemingly wary to be aggressive buyers while harvest progress will be picking up significantly this week. Further upside for wheat could help turn attitudes more positive. In the Headlines ADM announced that had restarted operations at the processing plant in Decatur, Illinois that suffered an explosion last Sunday. The damaged corn mill is one of the largest in the country and has the capacity to produce 375 million gallons of ethanol per year. There still remains some concern that problems with the plant would serve as a pressure on basis just as harvest is set to start and while river markets are nearly shuttered because of low water levels. Ukraine’s Eastern European neighbors were preparing to extend their ban on Ukrainian grain imports in a bid to protect against domestic food inflation. Hungary, Romania, Poland, and Slovakia were working on a plan to block grain purchases from Ukraine, but the countries will still help to facilitate shipments that would travel through their land ports on the way to Western Europe and beyond. Russia continues to balk at restarting the…

Grains are called steady to slightly higher as lower yield ideas lead into the Tuesday crop report. Trading volume has been much lighter than average and will likely remain that way until the report is out. In the Headlines Barged grain movements ground to a halt last week as low Mississippi River levels became an even bigger problem. At about 9.5 feet below the zero stage, water levels at Memphis were approaching the record low reached in October of last year at -10.8 feet. Southbound barge freight rates from the Mid-Mississippi climbed another 9 percent last week. Fresh news was limited from the war in Ukraine, with more Russian drone attacks on Kiev, but no new targeting of Ukraine’s grain facilities. The drones were Iranian made, which is notable as reports circulate about Vladimir Putin preparing to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to discuss North Korea potentially sending weapons and ammunition over to Russia. China was reportedly a buyer of more U.S. soybeans last week, something that could show up in flash sale announcements over the coming few days. Soybean export sales were announced on two of the four business days last week. The USDA reports any…

Grain and livestock markets are closed for Labor Day before the grains open again tonight at 7 pm central. Opening calls are uncertain for the grains while traders await the outcome of negotiations that could restart the Black Sea export deal. Attacks on Danube River ports reportedly damaged more grain export infrastructure over the weekend, but they occurred ahead of meetings that are now taking place between Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan. Grain futures should otherwise find support from a forecast that extends dry weather for at least another week. In the Headlines Viktor Korobko of VEA Brokers in Ukraine raised his production estimates for the country’s wheat crop to 22.5-23 million metric tons, which is a bit ahead of where the USDA last pegged it, at 21 mmt. He was between 25 and 26 mmt for Ukraine’s corn crop, which is short of the USDA at 27.5 mmt. Like for the U.S., dry weather at the end of the season hurts overall potential and poses a risk ahead of the winter crop planting effort. Viktor also made note of the attacks flaring up again on Ukrainian ports along the Danube River. Barge rates were…

Grains are expected to open steady to slightly higher in reflection of an extended forecast that remains hot and dry. Fresh news is otherwise limited to this point in the weekend. Monday’s market will trade in anticipation of the Crop Progress report scheduled for release after the closing bell. In the Headlines The Pro Farmer Crop Tour wrapped up with yield estimates that were slightly lower than anticipated, coming in with a national average of 172 bushels per acre for corn (USDA August at 175.1) and 49.7 bpa for soybeans (USDA 50.9). Citing a review of FSA data, their production estimates used 675,000 more harvested corn acres and the same amount of soybean acres as the USDA did on the August report. Among the most notable points were that Pro Farmer had Iowa corn yield declining from last year to 197 bpa and had Illinois yield lower on the year but higher than the USDA August estimate, at 203 bpa. Viktor Korobko of VEA Brokers in Ukraine commented on how his country is also dealing with hot, dry conditions at the moment. He mentioned that his estimates for corn and sunflower production are falling and that it has been too…

Grains are called to open higher in response to the stressful weather shift. The Monday afternoon Crop Progress report will help set the tone early in the week before focus turns to results from the Pro Farmer crop tour. In the Headlines Many areas are now under excessive heat warnings that started today and will remain open until Thursday. Almost one quarter of the population of the contiguous United States will be threatened with dangerous heat index levels that are expected to register up to 115 degrees. The latest weather model runs removed chances for moisture late next week to leave open a dry stretch of at least 10 days. The annual conference of economists and bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming will be held this week and will feature a speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Traders will look for any clues about monetary policy going forward, but it will still be until September 20th before the next meeting for setting interest rates. Futures-implied odds currently price a probability of 89 percent that the fed funds rate does not change next month from the current level of 5.5 percent. Treasury yields have still been inching higher as market participants…