Joe Camp

Grains have potential for follow-through higher behind positive Friday settlements for corn and soybean futures. Traders will remain tentative amid heightened outside market volatility and ahead of the Tuesday crop report. In the Headlines Thursday's stock market slump was noted for erasing $2.5 trillion of value from the tech-heavy Nasdaq index. Investors expressed worry that new Democratic governors and lawmakers would block the construction of data centers. That concern was fueled in part by comments from the governor elect in Texas that promised a moratorium on new data center approvals, although she has indicated that already permitted projects will be allowed to continue. The Nasdaq rebounded on Friday but still finished lower for a fourth straight week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer on Friday had a video call with the Chinese Vice Premier in charge of trade talks, with the two U.S. officials explicitly asking for follow-through on China's prior commitments to open the market for rare earth minerals and meet its targets for agricultural purchases. Talks are increasing again in preparation for President Trump's next meeting with Xi Jinping at the Asia-Pacific economic conference in China on November 18 and 19. There were fresh reports…

Grains stand to rebound while markets find relative stability ahead of the elections. Crude oil remains the main guide for commodities as it reflects risks around war and inflation. In the Headlines The last trading session of October was marked by a substantial stock market selloff, triggered in part by concerning financial guidance from Intel that cut the tech company's share prices by 28 percent on the day. Broad pressure against the artificial intelligence sector came amid worries about rising interest rates and with the backdrop of uncertainty about this week's elections. The central bank kept its main lending rate unchanged on Wednesday, although the decision was not unanimous and the meeting was then followed up with a strong GDP report and a still-hot inflation reading. This week features Tuesday's midterm elections and Friday's jobs report. Along the way will be earnings reports from companies including Apple, McDonald's, and Toyota. "Indirect talks" continued between the U.S. and Iran as officials from both sides met with mediators from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Meanwhile, President Trump suggested there were still a few more targets to address involving Iran's nuclear capabilities, while Iran threatened "devastating strikes" if the U.S. resumes attacks.…

Grains may face another weaker start connected to weekend selling in the cash market, but speculators may make a tentative attempt at buying up any further weakness. Positioning for this week's Fed meeting and next week's election will be heavily influential. In the Headlines Headlines were heavily election-focused, as were most of President Trump's weekend comments. There was also international attention on Brazil's presidential election between the incumbent President Lula da Silva and the challenger Flavio Bolsonaro, who was the favorite in prediction markets. The outcome was expected to be determined by Sunday afternoon. There was still more that could shape the market's Sunday night open based on potential developments in the war with Iran. President Trump suggested on Sunday morning that a new offensive against Iran could be imminent as Iran further refuses to make concessions toward an updated ceasefire agreement. Markets trade with anticipation for the Wednesday finish of the October Federal Reserve Bank meeting. An interest rate decision comes at 1 pm central with Chairman Warsh's press conference following 30 minutes later. Fed funds rate odds closed last week at 90 percent likely for no rate hike this month. Chances were implied at about 69 percent in…

Grains face early selling pressure from hedgers getting covered after a busy harvest weekend. Guidance comes from the energy trade after that. In the Headlines Down 30 cents for the week, soybean futures shrugged off Chinese buying listed to total nearly 1.5 million metric tons. While significant, the purchases were likely only a fraction of the amount of soybeans sold by farmers across the scale last week. Down just a nickel last week, corn futures faced harvest pressure but relatively less in the form of farmer selling as producers delivered against previous contracts and opted to sell soybeans/store corn. President Trump on Friday issued an executive order waiving the sanctions against Russia that were passed in the Graham Act with bipartisan support. The move was Trump's latest in an effort to tame surging fuel prices. Utilizing more than 1,000 drones, Ukraine attacked a Russian oil terminal in St. Petersburg on Sunday in the latest targeting of energy infrastructure following claims of Russia striking Ukraine's oil and gas assets. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has spoken out against what he claimed were 76 instances of Russian assaults on energy infrastructure in the week since President Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine had…

Grains may have strength at the start as corn attempts a rebound that could easily falter as Monday unfolds. Heightened volatility in the energy trade likely remains wider influence along with financial market sentiment surrounding an inflation report on Wednesday. In the Headlines Grain futures may take more time to digest Friday's crop report and the bearish corn yield surprise. With most looking for a slight reduction, the corn yield rose 2.7 bushels on the month to 181.2. Soybean yield was revised higher to 53.1 for what would represent a new record. A more bullish outlook for demand absorbed the additional soybean supply and helped turn soybean futures toward a higher close. December corn dropped 20 1/2 after rebounding lightly from testing the 30-cent trading limit. President Trump announced a deal with Russia to supply diesel fuel to the U.S., contrasting with the sanctions banning Russian oil imports. Traders are watching see if Russian diesel exports now normalize after Russia had placed a ban on shipments as its refineries faced attacks from Ukraine. Some analysts were in the news questioning the agreed upon totals as being insignificant, especially compared to diesel production totals currently shutdown as a result of the…

Grains look to follow through on a weak finish from last week. Traders will have the week to prepare positions for Friday's crop report. In the Headlines The Group of Seven nations announced a coordinated release of oil and fuel reserves on Friday. The plan covered an injection of 100 million barrels of oil and product that would include immediate release of diesel fuel and then more over the next four months. President Trump referenced the plan by highlighting that Europe had agreed to unload its stocks. Trump also commented on South Korea investing $8.4 billion in "an enhanced Oil Recovery Project." A third U.S. aircraft carrier and about 9,000 more troops were deployed to the Middle East last week. Government officials confirmed orders for the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier strike group and the 13th Marine Expeditionary Unit. Wheat was pricing in additional war premium again late last week on the news that Estonia was banning the transit of grain exports from Russia and Belarus. The country was not currently being used actively as a through-port, but the move was precautionary as Russia searched for alternative routes as well as symbolic in support of Ukraine. Recent grain shipments through Latvia…

Grains set to start steady to slightly stronger as traders await word on Chinese trade concessions. In the Headlines The outcomes of President Trump's meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping have been relayed by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announcing a two-month extension of the current trade truce and Trade Representative Jameison Greer saying that there would be more details about tariff relief coming Monday. A "more favorable tariff treatment for $30 billion of non-sensitive goods" was referenced in a White House Fact Sheet released on Friday. The release mentioned the Board of Trade "addressing market access barriers in the agricultural sector," but the fact sheet otherwise lacked specifics. President Trump commented that he will be meeting again with Xi in November at the Asia Pacific economic conference in China and then in December at the G20 summit in Miami. Negotiations with Iran reached another impasse as President Trump rejected the latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military official threatened attacks on U.S. ships in the Indian Ocean if fighting resumes. Meanwhile, Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabia continued. Monetary policy will be in focus with this week's reports on inflation and employment. Several central bank officials…