The Commstock Report

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/16/2026 Harvest Low Comes When Storage is Full PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A study from the University of Illinois found that this season's crop production will combine with grain stocks leftover from last year to equal 99 percent of nationwide storage capacity. While that actually sounds like a relief given the bearish outlook associated with expecting the second largest ever corn crop and a new record soybean crop, the devil is in the details about how most Corn Belt states individually exceed their available storage space. Missouri was projected with the leading deficit, as total supply will represent 119 percent of storage capacity; South Dakota was estimated at 111 percent, Indiana 109, Iowa 109, Nebraska 108, and Illinois at 105. The research shows storage pressure quickly finding relief by the time winter rolls around, with the Corn Belt states historically averaging 70 percent for capacity utilization upon the Dec. 1 stocks count. From now until then, basis and spreads will guide grain futures as they reflect the strength of demand and how efficiently grain is being shifted into position for…

10/16/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Breaking Down as China Buys More On the Grains: Soybeans mildly extended Thursday’s breakdown below the Oct. 9 low during overnight trade. Corn and wheat futures also traded lower overnight. Corn futures are still solidly above their Oct. 9 lows, while wheat markets are threatening a downside breakout from near-term support. Money is flowing out of the long side of the grain and soy markets. The pressure on soybeans is coming from a combination of seasonal pressure, chart-based selling and fund liquidation, despite aggressive Chinese buys this week. USDA has confirmed 800,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China over the past two days and more are coming. Bloomberg reports that China’s state-owned firms have booked at least 20 cargoes – around 1.3 MMT. What China hasn’t been buying is other agricultural goods, despite its May pledge to purchase at least $17 billion annually in U.S. farm products beyond its existing soybean commitments. Chinese commercial firms are waiting on tariff rollbacks before making purchases. Farmers, exporters and traders are still waiting for a precise prorated 2026 target and a clear accounting of purchases credited toward the agreement. The U.S./China…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/15/2026 Going Where the Ride Takes Us PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update It frankly may surprise some that, basis all the alarming headlines and handwringing, that there is any good news about the US fiscal condition. There is great cause for concern because there is no argument or ambiguity that the accumulating US government debt is careening toward an eventual cliff. Any brakes appear to be failing with the momentum unstoppable. We may not know where the edge of the cliff is before we go over it…but…if the bond market was as bad as some say it is, we should already be looking up at the cliff after some kind of crash having gone over it. There is more resilience to the global bond market than many expected and the Bank of the USA continues to pay interest to creditors and sell new Treasuries. The full faith and credit of the US government remain intact for now. The 10-year US Treasury rate has gone up roughly three-quarters of a percent to near 5.25% this year. A 6-15-month CD will pay in…

10/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Dollar Headwinds Ease Overnight, But Could Be Key Factor On the Grains Soybeans traded lower overnight, threatening a downside breakout below the Oct. 9 low. While that support was probed overnight, it failed to uncover fresh sell orders. Corn and winter wheat markets pivoted around unchanged in quiet overnight trade. An emerging headwind for grains is the U.S. dollar. The dollar index is lower overnight on a pullback from Wednesday’s runup to the highest level since April 2025, but is trading well above par, as the Fed is expected to further raise interest rates to combat inflation. U.S. consumer inflation for September came in hotter than expected on Wednesday. U.S. producer prices for September will be out at 7:30 a.m. CT. The dollar can be a “reason” for daily price movement in the grain markets, especially on days when fundamental news is limited. Importantly, the dollar could be a deciding factor in whether managed money accounts want to shed more of what was recently a record combined net long position in the grain and soy markets or resume their buying. The broader concern is tied to competitiveness on the global…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/14/2026 I am in Medora North Dakota PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Actually, I am back home now but where I am at has become a series. My wife and I are in the travel mode of our lives…getting around while we still can. We are the aging baby-boomer generation and on the cruise that we were recently on, our fellow ship-mates had mostly white hair…past grey. There were traffic jams of mobility scooters at the elevators. Since summer I have been to Brazil, Colorado, Canada and now North Dakota with more scheduled travel to come. I am not ready for a mobility scooter yet but have been comparing models. I was in North Dakota last week as that is where the annual meeting of the Theodore Roosevelt Association was held. They called it ‘TEDDYCON’. The TRA was chartered by Congress in 1920. I am a long-time member (though not since 1920). The annual convention location in Medora was chosen because it was the Grand Opening on July 4th, 2026 of the new Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library there. This was the…

10/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Buys More U.S. Soybeans, Big Corn Purchases Unlikely On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight on support from Chinese demand news. Corn and wheat both favored the downside. Reuters reported Chinese state-owned firms purchased eight to 10 cargoes (roughly 520,000 to 650,000 MT) of U.S. soybeans this week. Export sources said most of the soybeans were booked for shipment from the PNW in January. Daily sales announcements will be watched for confirmation of the purchases. Meanwhile, an official with China’s state-owned Cofco says China’s corn production expanded as much as 8 MMT this year and that U.S. corn imports are not yet economically viable for commercial firms even with a reduced tariff rate. He expects China to import only 3.5 MMT of corn in 2026-27, which is 2.5 MMT less than the ag ministry forecasts, including less than 1 MMT of U.S. corn. As we’ve noted, there are other ag commodities that China needs more than corn that will get it to the $17 billion in purchases (will be prorated to an unspecified amount for this year) beyond soybeans. That doesn’t mean China won’t buy some U.S. corn, but large…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/13/2026 My Iowa Soybeans Still Outyield The Farm In Brazil PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update On my drive through Iowa this weekend I was surprised by how little harvest had progressed in Central Iowa.  There were several noticeable spots with water still standing in fields despite having a stretch of warm weather.  I noticed one combine slowly making their way through the field leaving muddy tracks in its path.  This is extremely frustrating for Central Iowa growers as they are forced to sit and wait.  Harvest progress did not begin to pick up until well North of Hwy 20. In NW Iowa the bean harvest is looking to finish this week.  I have heard many reports of early yields hitting 80+ bpa.  However, later harvested fields have been falling as moisture levels plummet due to a warmer than average fall.  Temperatures hit almost 90 degrees this weekend.  We harvested the bulk of our soybeans in a 9-day period.  Our first day of harvest, moisture levels in beans were at 13%.  By day 3, they were at 11%.  The family did not…

10/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bulls Need a Fresh Catalyst On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded lower overnight amid a lack of supportive news. With USDA’s October crop reports last Friday taking the bloom off the rose for bulls, a fresh bullish catalyst is needed to rebuild buyer interest across the grain and soy complex. Corn and soybean harvest activity is in full swing, adding seasonal headwinds to both markets. Scattered rains are expected during the next couple of days across areas of the Corn Belt, though harvest will remain active. USDA will update the corn and soybean harvest paces this afternoon. China’s Sinograin sold 209,904 MT of imported soybeans from an offering of 518,175 MT – a 40.51% clearance rate. The average transaction price was 4,298.43 yuan per MT ($642). With no tariff rollback for U.S. soybeans, commercial firms will use the state-owned reserves to bridge the gap until new-crop South American soybeans are ready for export. On Note: An official with China’s state-owned Cofco said fourth quarter soybean arrivals in China are expected to average 9.5 MMT, which would be up from 8.5 MMT last year and 7.7 MMT two years…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/12/2026 So Far… Ag has Not Been Shown as Contributing to Iowa's Cancer Rate PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When on a cruise-ship, passengers often greet each other with the question, "where are you from"? On the Rotterdam, off Norway in 2024, we answered such a question…" we are from Iowa". The questioner responded "ah…Caitlin Clark". My wife, who is an avid WNBA-Caitlin Clark fan, was elated that someone so far away associated Iowa with the basketball star.  Unfortunately, along with corn and hogs, that is not all that we are being associated with, since Iowa became first in the nation for states with the highest rate of cancer. No one here is surprised by that, given the likelihood of knowing so many people who are living this reality. Our cancer treatment centers are very busy. They are doing a good job as treatment which has lowered the mortality rate but that is not the explanation or solution that Iowans are looking for. In my experience cancer plagues some families and not others so there is a genetic connection. Cancer is…

10/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Funds, End-Users Will Signal If Corn Is Value Buy On the Grains: Corn and wheat opened lower overnight but rebounded to trade above Friday’s closing levels early this morning. Soybeans opened firmer but faded, along with soymeal, and are trading lower. Money flow will be key to price action during daytime trade as funds become more active. Do funds view Friday’s sharp price breaks as a fresh buying opportunity or do they further liquidate long positions? Friday’s lows across the grain and soy markets stand as key near-term support that bulls must defend to keep from a deeper price pullback. Funds reduced some of their length across the grain and soy markets as of Oct. 6 but were still net long a combined 881,436 futures and options contracts. Note: That figure doesn’t include the final three days last week, including Friday’s heavy selling in the corn and wheat markets. Aside from money flow, harvest activity ramped up over the past week as drier conditions were seen in the western Corn Belt. Seasonal pressure will be a headwind as new-crop bushels come to market. Note: USDA will not update harvest activity…