The Commstock Report

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/06/2026 The Major Caveat for a Winter Bull Market PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Thursday's market was an example of the trade turning into sell-almost-everything mode, triggered by an avalanche in stocks that gave up everything earned from the post-election rally and then some. Investors hit the exits on tech shares, especially the names connected to artificial intelligence/data centers/computer chips, which pulled the Nasdaq index down by a whopping 5 percent. The Dow Jones had a rare outside day down that reversed a gain of more than 1,500 points from the prior session. Money that escaped the stock market had to go somewhere; aside from pure cash, there were safe-haven bids supporting Treasuries and gold. The broader bearishness kept traders wary to buy into grains and it weighed directly on the livestock at a time when both grains and livestock futures could have otherwise advanced toward turning up out of lows. For sentiment to stay risk-off after the stock market enters correction territory is a primary roadblock to a bullish winter turnaround in commodities. For episodes of fear to turn out…

11/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Extend Weekly String of Losses Awaiting Bullish Catalyst On the Grains: Wheat futures declined overnight, with the winter wheat markets marking for-the-move lows. Wheat markets have declined for 10 straight weeks. Corn and soybeans pivoted quietly around unchanged. Corn futures have declined for six straight weeks, while the string of losses will be four for soybeans. While price action and market attitudes are dour, traders may cover some short positions ahead of the weekend as they start to square positions ahead of next Tuesday’s USDA November crop reports. The search continues for a bullish catalyst that’s needed to put in lows and start working higher. Aside from pre-report positioning, grain traders will be looking for further value buying by global end-users. Thursday’s weekly export sales data showed signs that is picking up, as have daily sales announcements, though more is needed to convince traders prices are low enough. There’s also more attention on Brazilian weather with conditions expected to start trending warmer and drier in central Brazil, along with northern production areas that are already facing those conditions. Outside market focus will be on the stock market after volatile…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/05/2026 Iowa First and America First Should Be The Same Thing! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Iowa election results were not complicated. The Blue Wave resulted from the fact that the GOP Congress failed to check and balance the executive branch. It did not matter that the president was a republican, the GOP Congress still had a job to do and failed. The GOP Congress stopped functioning as a legislative branch of government.  My worry was that Mike Naig, the Iowa GOP Secretary of Ag, who has performed well and deserved another term, would get taken under by the wave. The Secretary of Ag race was closer than it ought to have been, but Naig survived. I will spare you the long version of why the GOP Congress failed and give one example. Iowa had 4 GOP US Congressman, one of which was Hinson. I had even voted for my GOP congressman. I went to Washington to lobby for 45Z and E-15 as a member of the Carbon board. My tolerance for the failure to approve year-around E-15 had long…

11/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Tide May Be Turning On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher amid corrective buying overnight. Meal futures also firmed on corrective buying, while soyoil extended its price slide. A test of the overnight strength will come during daytime trade when funds, who have been active sellers since early September, will be more active. Funds have amassed a sizable short position in the wheat markets, while they’ve gotten out of their length in corn and shed most of their long positions in soybeans and meal. Sentiment is highly bearish and the boat is leaning heavily in one direction. This is very similar to what happened with funds in June as they piled into the short side of grain and soy markets before flipping to aggressive buyers and eventually building a record combined net long position in grain and soy markets in early September. Bottoming action in June lasted for weeks and required a bullish catalyst – weather – to flip the switch from sell to buy for funds. There’s no guarantee the pattern will repeat itself, but there are definitely some similarities. Weather could again be a bullish catalyst,…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/04/2026 Who Produces It Cheaper? Brazil or USA? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Our harvest is making progress, but at our current rate, we will finish about two weeks later than last year. Corn yields appear good, which is the most important. The farm we are in now is roughly 20% above APH. While we do not expect to beat last season's overall farm yield record, we have individual fields that will. The July heat robbed us of yield by as much as 10% - 20%. But 20% of what? Chopping 20% off of 300 bpa yield potential is still a good yield. I had a college professor that used to say everyone in class started the semester with an A. It was what you did (or didn't do) that determined if you were able to keep it. Modern seed genetics have 300+ bpa potential. Or rather in theory, that is the yield you start the season with. Both weather and crop management than determine form there how much of that we get to keep. Moisture levels in corn appear to…

11/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Blue Wave for Elections, Red Wave for Grains On the Grains: Democrats captured control of the Senate and House as a blue wave surged across the country during Tuesday’s midterm elections. Democrats flipped Senate seats in Maine, Iowa, Kansas, Ohio, Texas, South Carolina and North Carolina and numerous seats in the House. Global markets responded with stocks rallying, while bond yields and the U.S. dollar retreated.Meanwhile, the red wave of price losses continued in the grain markets. Soybeans plunged to their lowest level since mid-August, with the January contract probing $12. December corn futures extended to the lowest level since July 1, probing the $4.40 level. Wheat markets made for-the-move lows before modestly rebounding from those levels. The latest fundamental headwinds are coming from the StoneX yield estimates, which pegged corn at 183.1 bu. and soybeans at 55.0 bu. per acre this month. The StoneX production forecasts are 16.203 billion bu. for corn and 4.725 billion bu. for soybeans. If StoneX is correct, that's more bushels that need to be chewed through via increased demand. The way to encourage more usage is through lower prices. Regarding Tuesday’s elections, Washington policy…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/03/2026 Lame Duck or Dead Duck Congress? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A friend of mine told me last week that he pulled money from the stock market, having become worried about the repercussions of the mid-term elections with so many ominous threats lying in wait for them to be over. These risks include a resumption of the military conflict in the war with Iran, Russian desperation intensifying the war in Ukraine overseas along with domestic risks that ICE will come out of its cold-box, hot after immigrants, and of course how the election, is or is not, settled will test us. A lot is being made of expected democratic successes in today’s mid-term elections under the illusion that… that outcome will improve overall governance by a significant amount. President Trump will never conform to traditional expectations of lame duck status. Lame duck Congresses are often quite productive in enacting legislation as the political tentacles loosen. That still requires cooperation with the administration and Trump has not been in a cooperative mood. As to the new Congress, while the democrats may…

11/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Value Buying Confirmed; Corn Market Wants More Proof On the Grains Corn and wheat futures mildly favored the downside overnight, while soybeans traded slightly higher amid modest corrective buying. The general marketplace remains cautious awaiting results of today’s midterm elections. December corn futures dropped to a for-the-move low, despite the ninth largest daily sale on record of 1.730 MMT to Mexico on Monday – 1.135 MMT for 2026-27 and 594,630 MT for 2027-28. While that signaled the top buyer of U.S. corn sees value on the sharp price break, traders apparently want more proof. USDA reported soybean crush slowed more than anticipated to 198.8 million bu. in September. That was down 5.2% from August and 3.0% from year-ago, though the slowdown was due to crush plants not having enough supplies, not a lack of demand. September corn-for-ethanol use totaled 438.4 million bu., down 8.5% from the previous month but up 0.6% from last year. Harvest delays in the western and northern Corn Belt limited new-crop corn deliveries to ethanol plants. Corn Harvest Remains Behind, Soybean Harvest Stays Ahead USDA reported corn harvest advanced 16 percentage points to 74%, though that…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/02/2026 I Had to Get This Said So Here It Is… "Shit happens!" PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Getting the crop out is only half the job for livestock farmers at harvest. Once the grain is in the bin, they have corn stalks to harvest, used as livestock bedding or stover for cows, which is hard to get done under wet conditions when it keeps raining. After the soybeans are harvested or after the stalks are removed from corn fields, then feedlots scurry to empty manure pits and or spread stockpiled manure. What can we push back on "Big Ag" with? … as the politicians in both parties have now joined the chorus on campaigning …well, manure replaces commercial fertilizer. That is the best way to reduce dependency on fertilizer companies. With so many manure applications running in a short season, accidents will happen. When they do, we are sure to hear about it in the Des Moines Register or Iowa Capital Dispatch. They think that it validates their anti-CAFO argument. My response is that "Shit happens!". Nobody does anything without…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Turn Off The Fund Spigot On the Grains Corn and wheat futures mildly traded higher overnight amid corrective buying. Soybeans pivoted around unchanged with a modest downside bias. Money flow will be the critical factor as markets start a new month. Bulls need a spark from demand, South American weather or some other source to reignite buyer interest after aggressive selloffs the past two months. The fund purge continued across the grain and soy markets, with the combined net long position for futures and options falling below 400,000 contracts as of Oct. 27 – 40% of the record length they held in early September. Funds are short all three wheat markets and clinging to a net long position in corn. Funds are still solidly long soybeans and soymeal, though those positions have also been greatly reduced from their early September peaks. If the fund selloff continues, soybeans and meal are most at risk. Widespread rains are forecast for central and southern Brazil over the next week, with the wettest conditions in far eastern and south-central production areas. The rains will slow…