The Commstock Report

08/14/2026 US Wealth Disparity after 250 Years-Where it Goes from Here PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 If Americans voted strictly according to their wealth status, socialist candidates would sweep elections and the GOP would get put out to pasture. Some GOP worry about the US demographic is well on its way to becoming a minority majority which leans heaviest to Democrats. The wealthy know what the risk is in the pitchforks eventually coming for them. This is why the wealthy power structure, yet in control, wants to federalize the election process and remove limits from election spending so they can hold this wave of “communists” back. Democracy becomes a threat to the billionaires. It gives context to the purpose of the “Save America Act”. They are thinking long term, which is why they want to end birthright citizenship. Elon Musk injects $250 mln into the election process, which to ‘a trillionaire’, is chump change. The Supreme Court knocked the spigot clear off the barrel from which dollars flow into the election system meaning contributions are becoming unlimited. 80% of the voting public has no financial means to fund…

08/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video On Again, Off Again… Rinse and Repeat On the Grains: The wheat market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines amid the heightened attacks in the Black Sea region. Wheat jumped double digits early this morning as Russia reportedly rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, which ironically is what triggered a sharp fall from Thursday’s intra-day highs. Moscow also dismissed the idea of returning to the old Black Sea grain export agreement. The price tone is higher overnight, but it’s been highly choppy and sideways for nearly the past six months.Corn and soybeans are also higher overnight. Their greater focus is weather, potential crop size and demand. Not surprisingly, their price trends have also been highly choppy and sideways since late winter/early spring. All three markets are being driven by a set of highly volatile factors that can change rather rapidly, causing sentiment to shift. The result has been back-and-forth trade – money flow in, money flow out… rinse and repeat. Corn Belt Deluge, Extreme Conditions Continue An intense week of weather continues this morning, with another wave of heavy rains pushing through the corridor from…

08/13/2026 The Beer in Brazil Just Keeps getting Cheaper PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When we first brought US famers to tour Brazil in the early 2000’s a bottle of Skol cost a single Real. A dollar was worth about 1.5 Real at the time so $2US would buy 3 Brazilian beers. US Farmers liked Brazilian beer and they liked the exchange rate. Americans could empty the contents of an upright cooler full of beer overnight and feel like it was free. By the time that we had invested in Brazil the Real had climbed to near 3 Reais to the dollar in anticipation of the socialist Lula de Silva becoming president. It was buy-the-rumor of THE SOCIALIST Silva becoming president followed by selling-the-fact after he was elected. Lula did not turn out to be as inflationary and disruptive as the currency markets had anticipated. In fact, quite the opposite happened. The Brazilian economy grew. Frankly, Lula brought social stability to Brazil that all classes of Brazilians benefited from given their extreme economic disparity. At the time you could look down on favelas from the Hilton as classes, the wealthy…

08/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Back to the Grind On the Grains: The euphoric price rise on Wednesday wore off overnight. Corn failed to find follow through buying, while soybeans and wheat pivoted around unchanged. Wheat is showing a little strength this morning as Russia struck Ukraine's largest Danube grain shipment port overnight. But a surge in buyer interest in wheat will be tied to a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies – something that hasn’t been seen yet and USDA didn’t account for in its updated balance sheet (see below). Overnight price action signals it’s back to the grind for corn, soybeans and wheat as futures grind within their broad summer trading ranges. Key takeaways from USDA’s Aug. 12 Reports Yields: USDA’s initial yields came in below trendline for both corn and soybeans. Over the past 10 years, USDA has lowered yield from August to January for both in seven years by an average of 1.0 bu. for corn and 0.6 bu. for soybeans. History favors reductions in the months ahead, though August rains give crops plenty of moisture to finish, especially soybeans. Keep in mind, a large part of the August…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/12/2026 Bullish Yield Offsets Another Bearish Acreage Surprise PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Finally, the August crop report is behind us. Most traders would have given first glance to corn yield, which was evidently weighted heavier in the algorithmic systems, since the bullish report reaction was attributed to the estimate coming in at 180.7 bushels per acre versus an average trade guess of 182.4. But looking up one line on the balance sheet showed a much larger than expected harvested acreage estimate. Here we go again. Harvested corn acres were increased by 1.2 million on plantings that rose to 96.7 million. It was similar with soybeans, with yield at 52.7 lower than the average trade guess but with acreage climbing by 1.4 million. The acreage changes were overpowered in the reaction but not ignored, as they likely helped contribute to the relatively weaker effect for soybean prices. Part of the reasoning for putting more focus on corn yield would be the idea of those extra acres not making it to grain anyway. The acreage adjustments will stoke further frustration after last…

08/12/2026 Geopolitics, Derecho and USDA… Oh My! Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical difficulties. On the Grains Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drone strikes pounded three of Russia's large grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk, causing two of them to temporarily halt operations as they assess damage. While traders added risk premium overnight, futures remain in a choppy range as there hasn’t been a significant pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies. Corn and soybeans strengthened overnight ahead of USDA’s August crop reports at 11 a.m. CT, which will feature the first survey-based estimates of both crops. However, those estimates were finalized ahead of Tuesday’s derecho event that caused crop damage from eastern Iowa through the southeastern Corn Belt. There are chances for additional adverse weather for the next couple of days. Danage assessments will take several days – and even then, won’t be fully known until harvest is complete. Using the August 2020 derecho as a blueprint – even if the damage isn’t the same – USDA lowered corn yield, harvested acres and production significantly from August to final. The U.S. corn supply situation could change…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/11/2026 Yield Estimates Fall Towards Trendline – Long Term View Positive PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Tomorrow's report will undoubtedly have a major impact on markets in the short-term, but even if it is bearish, we don't see it changing our longer-term bullish forecast. Last year caught the market by surprise by printing the largest yield forecast ever recorded, sending prices sharply lower. We didn't know it then, but that was ultimately a buying opportunity. Analysts like to remind us that lows have been made in the month of August in 8 out of the last 10 years. So far this year, it appears to be repeating the same pattern. My only problem with this is it tends to create recency bias, whereas because it has always happened a certain way, everyone continues to assume it will continue to do so. Sooner or later, we are given a surprise, reminding us that is not always the case. The market consensus seems to be that above trend line yields are out of the question. The crop has way too many holes in…

08/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Déjà Vu All Over Again?... Let’s Hope Not On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded quietly in the tight ranges overnight as traders await the storm – both literally and figuratively. Preparations are underway for the figurative “storm” of USDA data coming Wednesday that will feature the first survey-based production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans that will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. NASS will also incorporate FSA certified acreage data as of early August into its initial production estimates. Separately, FSA will release detailed acreage data as of early August, including prevent-plant acres for each crop. USDA will also update its U.S. wheat production forecasts and the old- and new-crop balance sheets, along global production and ending stocks. The literal storm is the potential for a derecho event today in a wide swath across South Dakota, southern Minnesota, Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Timing is eerily similar to the Aug. 10 derecho six years ago that wiped out many acres of corn and made USDA’s initial crop estimate virtually moot. Anyone that was directly impacted by the 2020 event puckers a little…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/10/2026 Probably My Last Trip to the Farms in Brasil PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update 'Spell-Check' thinks Brasil is spelled with a Z (Brazil). Down there they spell it with an S (Brasil). I have been to Brasil close to 35 times, mostly for investment duties, since December of 2001. That was just a month after 9-11 when the world changed.  I went because I wanted to get a first-hand view of our rising Ag competitor. I learned that US farmers really do not have a good perspective of where they fit into the global Ag structure until they have seen Brasil's Ag. Home looks different after you have been there. This trip was for the Kruse-Schutte family reunion. The relationship between our families began back in 1996 when my son Matthew joined a high school student exchange (GAPP) program where, by chance, he was hosted by the Schutte family in Dresden Germany. We then hosted both Schuette sons, Tino and Marco, to internships here in the US and Matthew returned to Dresden during college for a summer internship, staying with the Schutte's,…

08/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitics Grab Wheat Market’s Attention On the Grains Wheat futures led gains in the grain and soy markets overnight, building on Friday’s gains amid heightened geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea region. Soybeans were boosted by Chinese demand. Weather remains generally favorable for crop development, though the southern half of the country could face stress from heat and limited rainfall. Russia hammered Odesa during the weekend with one of the heaviest attacks of the war on Ukraine’s major grain export hub. Turkey stopped issuing Dardanelles transit permits for vessels bound for Ukraine or Russia's Novorossiysk. While geopolitical concerns are heightened, export demand for U.S. wheat must increase to garner sustained buyer interest. Other origins, primarily European exporters, will get the bulk of the initial wheat business that’s lost in the Black Sea region. The U.S. will benefit from increased demand for corn, though that window won’t open until fall. Timely rains in eastern Australia have boosted the country’s wheat production prospects for 2026-27, with multiple private crop forecasters now calling for production of around 30 MMT. While that would be down from last year’s 35.8 MMT crop, it would be…