The Commstock Report

09/15/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video A Lot of Noise On The Periphery On the Grains: Corn, soybeans and wheat traded mildly lower overnight. Outside markets are garnering a greater share of broader marketplace attention, with crude oil/energies and the global bond market grabbing headlines. After President Trump declared an energy truce between Russia and Ukraine on Monday – a claim that neither country confirmed – Ukraine hit the Syzran refinery in Russia’s Volga region overnight. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia’s critical East-West pipeline remained shut after Houthi attacks last week. That pushed Brent crude oil above $107 and WTI briefly above $104 overnight. The rout on global bonds continued, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rising to its highest since 2007 and Japan’s 10-year Treasury yield touching a 30-year high, amid surging energy prices, mounting debt and inflation concerns. The bond market intently awaits as the Fed begins its two-day monetary policy meeting. Traders have built in nearly 93% odds of a 25-basis-point rise into the market. That would be the first rate hike since July 2023. Failure by the Fed to calm market concerns with energy-driven inflation would send the bond market into a greater frenzy. USDA…

09/14/2026 Harvest Has Begun Here and So Has 2027 Planning PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I saw my first field where the soybeans had been harvested here Saturday. That was obviously an early maturity. Our soybeans were later maturity and are green yet with just a tinge of yellow. Silage harvest has begun as well. All of this is at least a week or more ahead of normal. Then again, both our corn and soybeans went in record early. We think that our soybeans have 75 bpa potential. I am expecting a record US soybean yield this year. I have not given up on a 54 bpa final US yield. USDA did not lower the soybean yield in Fridays WASDE report as many expected. We planted the earliest ever in narrow rows, they came up quickly with an even stand. They got fungicide. I believe that they were the cleanest soybeans we have ever had too. The hot dry July stressed soybeans which can actually be good for them. They handled the heat wave using subsoil moisture. Then they were given a drink. Temps warmed again but then we had…

09/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bulls Dodged a Bullet, But Fresh Fodder Needed On the Grains: Corn, soybean and wheat markets paused overnight after Friday’s weaker closes. That was most important for soybeans after Friday’s big downside reversal following a contract high earlier in the session. But corn and wheat are also toeing the cliff with funds holding a combined record net long position across the grain and soy markets. Bulls dodged a bullet with USDA’s report data, as there was nothing that was highly bearish, but they will need fresh bullish news to rebuild momentum. For corn and soybeans, yield changes on average are usually relatively minor from September to final, though there have been some individual years with major adjustments. Historically, corn ear counts decline from September, while soybean pod counts increase. Those trends are likely to hold true this year. The unknown is weights for ears and pods. The advanced maturity for corn will limit the ability to add weight into harvest, while soybeans have plentiful soil moisture in many locations and/or will receive rains over the next week to 10 days. That will allow later-maturing fields and double-crop soybeans to add…

Grains were called to edge lower at the start but looked open to turning around behind leadership from crude oil as war news was heating up again. In the Headlines The September crop report featured a 2.2 bushel per acre reduction to the corn yield, down to 178.5, which was still slightly higher than the average trade guess. That the lower corn yield came along with a lower harvested acreage estimate made for a bullish market reaction initially, but corn futures eventually turned back lower to resume the pre-report selloff. USDA raised its soybean yield from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre instead of going slightly lower with the consensus view. China purchased more than one million tons of U.S. soybeans again last week, bringing the total listed commitments to about 10 million metric tons. Adding soybean sales registered with 'unknown destinations' that are likely mostly tied to China, the total has reached above 50 percent of the 25 million metric tons promised when President Trump met with Xi Jinping last October. A visit to the U.S. by Xi Jinping is still scheduled for September 24th. The visit reportedly aims to achieve a reduction of reciprocal tariffs on $30 billion…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/11/2026 Crop Report a Letdown for Bulls, but Not a Gift to Bears PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The September crop report finally came and went, producing a mixed market reaction that ultimately left traders to move on toward wanting to see what actual harvest results say about the crop. First glance went to corn yield, which was down 2.2 on the month to 178.5 bushels per acre and right near the average trade guess. The bullish yield cut was paired with a reduction to harvested acreage (even with planted acreage up slightly, the lower proportion harvested should reflect more corn cut for silage and some crop lost to storms). Higher exports for last year reduced beginning stocks and factored into the new-crop corn carryout dropping to 1.567 billion bushels, not far from the consensus view. Production and ending stocks moved in the opposite direction for soybeans, starting with a yield that went up from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre in contrast with the average trade guess looking for a small reduction. Also going the other way than corn, soybean…

09/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video History Doesn’t Provide the Answer, But Gives Guidance On the Grain: Grain and soy complex futures are under pressure as traders take profits ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. December corn futures are trying to hold the recent triple-bottom at $5.26 1/2. There’s a void of support for about 20 cents under that level. November soybeans scored a contract high earlier overnight but have fallen back into the recent consolidation range, signaling a potential failed upside breakout. With funds record long corn and near record long soybeans, they are heavily extended to the upside. Corn and soybeans likely need bullish data from USDA to extend their rallies during harvest. Bearish data from USDA could trigger a rush of long liquidation. Wheat markets are sitting just above key support levels. USDA’s report data won’t be as directly impactful for wheat. Instead, wheat futures are likely to get much of their price direction into the weekend from corn and soybeans. Much of the focus in USDA’s reports will be on yields but harvested acres could be the wild card. Minor reductions in yield and production are…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/10/2026 The Car Washes are Closed in Colorado PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update My oldest daughter turned 50 and the women in our family celebrated with a destination celebration trip leaving the men home. I saw that as opportunity so my son, Chase and I, cowboyed up and did a 5-day road trip to Colorado and back over the Labor Day weekend. I wanted to see their drought for myself and how it impacted their Agriculture. We traveled across SD until cutting down through the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation stopping at Wounded Knee (story there kept for later). I was not impressed with SD crops thinking again as explained in a recent report, that they should have kept the grass and cows. We spent the night in Chadron NE. I'd never been through Western NE before and I Thought the bluffs had eye appeal. We stopped at the Agate Fossil Beds where I took this picture of nearby irrigation operating. By midday we made the Five Rivers feedlot near Kersey for a tour arranged by Commstock Broker, Zach Hooker, who lives in Ault. This was…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/10/2026 Heat Compromises Grain Fill PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I spent some time at the Farm Progress Show last week. Temperatures could be described as "hot and miserable". The effects were clearly having an impact on crop maturity but that may depend on who had moisture and who did not. Soil moisture should mediate some of the effects, but even then, it is hard to imagine there not being some yield slowly being sapped away. I drove across Illinois last week and it seemed to me that the crops were two weeks ahead of schedule. Fields being cut for silage in NW Iowa were reportedly coming in between 225 bpa and 260 bpa. That seems pretty good all things considered. One farmer in NE Iowa lamented how he lost at least 30 bpa from the heat in July….and therefore was "only" going to yield 270 bpa. Our yield potential has been shifting higher and so while losing 10% is frustrating, it must be taken within context. 10% loss from 300 bpa is still a good yield. The feedback from most…

09/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Awaiting More Demand Confirmation, USDA Data On the Grains Corn and soybeans rebounded overnight, with soybeans supported by Chinese demand. USDA announced daily sales of 340,000 MT to China and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations on Wednesday – part of the roughly 1 MMT Chinese state firms purchased Monday/Tuesday that we mentioned yesterday morning. More daily sales are expected today and/or Friday. Meanwhile, China state stockpiler Sinograin’s Sept. 9 auction of 68,013 MT of state-owned soybean reserves failed to attract any offers for a second straight week. Starting prices ranged from 4,320 to 4,390 yuan ($644 to $655) per metric ton, which was 7% to 8% above the average price from the five previous auctions that attracted strong commercial demand. Commercial firms are telling Sinograin price matters as they wait to see if 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans will be rolled back around the planned Sept. 24 visit to Washington by President Xi Jinping. Wheat markets generally paused overnight as they continue to monitor the Black Sea conflict. While there are increased reports of potential diplomacy, Ukraine and Russia continued to heighten their attacks on each other. This is…

09/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitical Support Builds as Traders Await USDA On the Grains Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but are firmer this morning, led by the wheat markets. Wheat traders continue to monitor the situation in the Black Sea. After Russia rejected a proposal to not strike civilian cargoes in the Black Sea, its forces struck a Ukrainian cargo vessel while it was sailing toward Odesa, claiming the ship was carrying military equipment. Also, there was a Russian strike on the Moldova/Ukraine border overnight, suggesting Russia’s attacks are pushing further west. Ukraine increased its attacks on the Novorossiysk port area. Corn and soybean markets are positioning ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports on Friday. USDA’s corn and soybean estimates will feature the first objective field survey data, along with farmer surveys, satellite imagery and additional FSA acreage data since August. The corn and soybean markets are currently trading figures around the following average pre-report estimates from Reuters for yield and crop production, so anything higher than those from USDA would be price-negative, anything lower would be price-supportive. Changes to the new-crop balance sheets will be primarily driven…