Katie Geerdes

From my 01/09/2026 Commstock Report: "Sometimes it can be a mistake to view things from your own backyard but based upon our 2025 Northwest Iowa farm production results, we would not expect USDA to reduce corn/soybean yields much in the January report. Given the drastic reduction in the number of USDA bean counters employed by the department, will this impact report accuracy? If not, most will argue USDA had too many employees. We have seen data on 2025 crop quality that we think is reliable confirming that the long growing season benefited test wights and grain quality. There was enough water to finish the crops. The longer the fill the more test weight that plants can pack into the kernels. Our 108-109-day hybrids produced a farm average of 270 bpa when the FSA measured the bins. That is the yield that gets turned into crop insurance. That was a record farm yield so will increase our average APH. It is in line with the topline USDA record yield." And so it was with USDA increasing the corn yield to 186.5 bpa and leaving the soybean yield at 53 bpa. A bear market resumes.   Another record farm yield is unlikely…

There has been much ado about the institutional fund rebalancing period that kicked off on Thursday and stretches a handful of sessions. The related market impact was most present in equities, where high-flying tech companies like Nvidia and Apple saw selling pressure while sectors that were more downtrodden in 2025, such as energy and consumer staples, found buying interest. In the commodity futures market, focus was on the rotational trade in gold and silver. Early Thursday weakness for the metals may have involved a measure of front-running by traders into the rebalancing window; indeed, the effect of institutional selling seemed evident as gold and silver futures broke lower in the immediate lead up to their 12:30 central settlement time. Friday morning's metal price strength suggested that the portfolio reallocation was a lesser influence against inputs like the jobs report and compared to larger flows of capital that were unconstrained by position weighting rules.   If anything, fund rebalancing at the start of the year invites a reassessment of the market outlook for 2026 based on possible lessons from what went up and what went down in 2025. For the metals to continue where they left off last year means other…

Sometimes it can be a mistake to view things from your own backyard but based upon our 2025 Northwest Iowa farm production results, we would not expect USDA to reduce corn/soybean yields much in the January report. Given the drastic reduction in the number of USDA bean counters employed by the department, will this impact report accuracy? If not, most will argue USDA had too many employees. We have seen data on 2025 crop quality that we think is reliable confirming that the long growing season benefited test weights and grain quality. There was enough water to finish the crops. The longer the fill the more test weight that plants can pack into the kernels. Our 108-109-day hybrids produced a farm average of 270 bpa when the FSA measured the bins. That is the yield that gets turned into crop insurance. That was a record farm yield so will increase our average APH. It is in line with the topline USDA record yield. We were 70% corn so that carried our soybeans. That means that our corn yield was high enough to cover costs with a small margin. Whatever else that we get from the government in payments adds to…

Part 2 of 2 There is no military in the world as advanced as the US military but China is as close enough to being second to make them a serious threat. China would have to be given the edge militarily if the battle is fought in its home court region where they have the supply line advantage in any extended conflict. China does not want to go to war with the US and visa-versa but each have geopolitical aims that can conflict with the other. China sees control of the first island chain as paramount to its security, no different than the US does the Caribbean. We have our Monroe Doctrine and Xi Jinping has made it clear that they see Taiwan as part of China and confirm the South China Sea being named as correctly as is our Gulf of America as respective spheres of dominance. Beijing chafes when the US Navy transits the strait of Taiwan… about how we would feel if Chinese warships transited the Panama Canal and then the Florida Keys.   There is an imbalance here that president Trump intends to maintain or use as a concession to trade for something if that opportunity…

I don't see the bottom cycle in grains as being over yet.  That doesn't mean we can't have short term rallies, but long-term obstacles continue to linger.  Favorable weather has created an oversupply both in the US and abroad.  The US and Brazil have produced bumper crops in back-to-back years setting new production records.  Brazil's 25/26 season is far from written, but most of the crop outlook there will be determined by the end of January.  That means we have less than 4 weeks of critical growing weather before we will have a pretty good idea on how big of a crop they will have.  Even low-end of current estimates would mean a new record in terms of Brazil's soybean production.   For the moment, it seems like the markets are looking for a repeat of last year.  August of 2024 saw the corn market bottom before rallying in February.  August of 2025 also made a seasonal bottom, and since then has slowly been grinding higher.  The corn market is moving in an upward channel that will eventually need to break out one way or the other.  I bought ten-cent calls on this recent break looking for a gradual move…

  Part 1 of 2 Ian Bremmer noted a significant surge in military conflicts around the world in 2025 with over 60 occurring. Many are in places that Americans have never heard of in Africa, our southern hemisphere and Southeast Asia. For all of the talk about ‘America First’, the president sure likes to get involved. Depending on the conflict, the US has been both the peacemaker and combatant. Bremmer attributes it to a breakdown in the world order and institutions. It has deep economic ramifications as nations and alliances, large and small, are spending $blns on armaments…directing resources away from social development such as education and health. The signs are that this trend toward conflicts will deepen in 2026. There are stories every day telling events happening in the Ukraine war. Depending upon who is telling them, some are true, some are false and others are meant to be misleading. What I am about to relate to you comes from my network of trusted sources. Let’s start at where the state of the war in Ukraine is at the beginning 2026. Russia is losing this war but Ukraine is not winning. The Russian army has lost 50,000 motorized transport…

On The Grains:   Welcome to 2026! I don't typically feel any different from one year to the next, except older, but that's hardly unique to me. I do think it's fun to look forward to what the new year holds, so here are some key points: This year will be the 250th Anniversary of this great nation, we will host a World Cup in North America, and if everything goes right, Artemis II will give us a NASA mission to(wards) the moon. I am sure we will get much more than that, all of which you will likely be able to bet on through Kalshi. Now onto the markets…I have to say that today is the most "Monday" feeling Friday in recent memory, although the ag trade was anything but lethargic. The grains began trading in 2026 under considerable pressure, with corn approaching the bottom end of its trading range, soybeans continuing their freefall, and wheat giving up nearly a nickel at the open. As the day wore on, corn got pretty quiet, wheat worked its way back to about even for the day, and soybeans were able to find some footing, gaining back around 7 cents after being…

"I have never had a bad Christmas." That thought struck me this Christmas. I have been lucky. Christmas's past have always been good memories for me. When growing up we lived on a farm less than 3 miles away from my grandparents' farm. We went there for Christmas. Their house was one of those Montgomery Ward catalogs ordered put-together homes. It was actually pretty good as, though it has had a remodel, it is still there today. I was reminded recently how much I looked forward as a kid to mail order catalogs, Sears was my favorite. I would dog-ear the corners of pages of what I wanted for Christmas. I was spoiled as I often got it. That Grandpa and Grandma were both German and she made goose for Christmas. Had a phone call with our German friends in Dresden earlier this week and they were having goose there for Christmas dinner, saying that it was a German tradition. I may have to find a goose for next year. Even during the Ag depression of the 1980s we managed to have a good Christmas.   The other set of grandparents came to our house, staying with us, when I…

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.   https://youtu.be/A_xHMyG-djk?si=Q0Q6yyxoagR6roN4   On the Grains   Soybeans and SRW wheat are mildly firmer early this morning, while corn and HRW wheat are near unchanged as grain markets try to stabilize after Monday's selloff. Fresh news remains limited, with much of the focus on ongoing efforts by President Trump to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that continue to face hurdles. Much of the price action in the grain markets are likely to be year-end positioning in lower-volume holiday trade.   Brazilian Firms To Abandon Amazon Soy Moratorium   Some of the world's largest soybean trading firms are preparing to abandon Brazil's Amazon Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement credited with sharply slowing deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, as they seek to preserve lucrative tax incentives in Brazil's top farm state, Reuters reported.   The potential exit is driven by a new law in Mato Grosso that, starting in January, strip tax incentives from companies that participate in conservation programs stricter than Brazilian law.   Major traders that signed the 2006 moratorium — including…

One day soon, shortly after the New Year, the US Supreme Court is going to rule on the issue as to whether the tariffs that president Trump has imposed on goods imported into the US are valid under executive power without further Congressional approval. Tariffs are taxes and one of the reasons why the USA rebelled from Great Britain was "taxation without representation". The US Congress is considered to be the representative legislative body in the US. The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs of 1930 were enacted first by Congress and then sent to the President to be signed. The GOP controlled Congress has not challenged Trump's use of tariffs. Tariffs are imposed on importers but their cost is passed on so Americans ultimately pay them. Congress retains the power to tax and tariffs are a form of taxation. They are arguably the largest tax increase ever imposed in decades and Congress watched from the sidelines. Congress has not challenged Trump's tariffs due to successful political intimidation.   Congress is waiting on the Supreme Court to provide them some courage. There are existing statutes enacted by Congress that allow the president to impose tariffs but they are narrow in scope. Trump's tariffs are…