Katie Geerdes

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/11/2026 Crop Report a Letdown for Bulls, but Not a Gift to Bears PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The September crop report finally came and went, producing a mixed market reaction that ultimately left traders to move on toward wanting to see what actual harvest results say about the crop. First glance went to corn yield, which was down 2.2 on the month to 178.5 bushels per acre and right near the average trade guess. The bullish yield cut was paired with a reduction to harvested acreage (even with planted acreage up slightly, the lower proportion harvested should reflect more corn cut for silage and some crop lost to storms). Higher exports for last year reduced beginning stocks and factored into the new-crop corn carryout dropping to 1.567 billion bushels, not far from the consensus view. Production and ending stocks moved in the opposite direction for soybeans, starting with a yield that went up from 52.7 to 52.8 bushels per acre in contrast with the average trade guess looking for a small reduction. Also going the other way than corn, soybean…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/10/2026 The Car Washes are Closed in Colorado PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update My oldest daughter turned 50 and the women in our family celebrated with a destination celebration trip leaving the men home. I saw that as opportunity so my son, Chase and I, cowboyed up and did a 5-day road trip to Colorado and back over the Labor Day weekend. I wanted to see their drought for myself and how it impacted their Agriculture. We traveled across SD until cutting down through the Pine Ridge Indian Reservation stopping at Wounded Knee (story there kept for later). I was not impressed with SD crops thinking again as explained in a recent report, that they should have kept the grass and cows. We spent the night in Chadron NE. I'd never been through Western NE before and I Thought the bluffs had eye appeal. We stopped at the Agate Fossil Beds where I took this picture of nearby irrigation operating. By midday we made the Five Rivers feedlot near Kersey for a tour arranged by Commstock Broker, Zach Hooker, who lives in Ault. This was…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/10/2026 Heat Compromises Grain Fill PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I spent some time at the Farm Progress Show last week. Temperatures could be described as "hot and miserable". The effects were clearly having an impact on crop maturity but that may depend on who had moisture and who did not. Soil moisture should mediate some of the effects, but even then, it is hard to imagine there not being some yield slowly being sapped away. I drove across Illinois last week and it seemed to me that the crops were two weeks ahead of schedule. Fields being cut for silage in NW Iowa were reportedly coming in between 225 bpa and 260 bpa. That seems pretty good all things considered. One farmer in NE Iowa lamented how he lost at least 30 bpa from the heat in July….and therefore was "only" going to yield 270 bpa. Our yield potential has been shifting higher and so while losing 10% is frustrating, it must be taken within context. 10% loss from 300 bpa is still a good yield. The feedback from most…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/08/2026 Building Grudges-Canada Responds with Counter Tariffs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked why Canada was responding to Trumps tariffs in the way that they have and he said "because Canada was attacked." US tariffs were put on every country that engages in commerce with the US yet only China and Canada have fought back with tariffs of their own. The following interview best reveals Trumps thoughts on Canada: "That video you put up yesterday crossing out Lake Ontario and writing in Lake America, it's been seen by about 30 million people, maybe more across all the social media platforms. What message are you sending to Canada with this move today? And why was this such an important thing for you to do? It's an interesting question. No message. As you know, Canada's been ripping us off for a long time on trade. Very sadly, even the military, you know, we defend Canada for nothing. We don't get anything. They don't pay us to defend Canada, but we defend Canada and they understand that. As…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/04/2026 Harvest Has a Super El Nino Threat PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Weather may remain the biggest wildcard facing farmers as September begins. After a stretch of hotter, drier conditions across much of the Corn Belt, the outlook shifts wetter, which is still welcome to some but a concern for those at risk of rain becoming too much at exactly the wrong time. The developing Super El Nino is at play as it brings significant changes to weather patterns and raises the threat of having harvest disrupted by episodes of heavy precipitation, hail, and wind. Recent storms demonstrate the potential for crop damage. August featured tornados and a derecho that toppled corn fields across the Midwest. There were also 'macrobursts' and other wind events that were evident in the trees and powerlines downed across the region. Loss totals did not rival the notorious 2020 derecho, but individual impacts were significant and every affected field reduces production in a way that must be accounted for as harvest estimates are dialed in. The focus will continue to shift from weather's determination of…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/04/2026 Forward Guidance from Jackson Hole PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! 30(57.7%) Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Fed meets annually each summer at Jackson Hole, Wyoming to let the fresh air clear their vision for monetary policy. I do not begrudge them that. One comment from Jackson that surprised me was an attribution from a Fed Governor over following Dr. Ed Yardeni. Who is that? “Edward Yardeni is an Israeli-born American economist and the president of Yardeni Research, which offers economic research and recommendations to clients. He is also the former chief economist for EF Hutton, Prudential Securities, and C. J. Lawrence. (Wikipedia)” It is unusual for a Fed banker to name someone specific that they go to for market perspective so that makes Yardeni special. I too have become familiar with his work. I would describe him as a wall-climber as Yardeni has advised staying aboard the bull market as it… “climbs the wall of worry.”  Yardeni is a stock market super-bull forecasting 8400 S&P yet this year resulting from historical corporate earnings growth. The worry that is the highest mountain to get over, is…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/02/2026 Do You Have A Trillion Dollars To Spare? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Every so often we read headlines about record US debt after it has achieved some new threshold. Most have grown numb to it as people struggle to comprehend the numbers. What does a trillion dollars even look like? It takes 1,000 of a billion to reach a trillion. If you stacked $100 bills on top of each other, a trillion dollars would reach out into space. Now take that times 40, and that is the level of US debt we have now achieved. It took our country 200 years (1789 – 1989) to grow from zero to 3 trillion in debt. We have now added another 37 trillion in just the last 36 years. Total debt is now over $40 trillion dollars. Does this really mean anything? The real measure is comparing how fast debt rises compared to the economy. If I owe a trillion dollars on my farm mortgage, that sounds bad at first, unless of course the value of the farm has risen to where…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/01/2026 Peter Zeihan on Biofuels PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Zeihan recently aired a video that caught the attention of many biofuels' supporters who were troubled by it. He is a well-known geo-politicist demographer and author that has spoken at many commodity conferences. His point of view has proven worthy of consideration. Zeihan Transcript Excerpt: "Today we're taking a question from the Patreon crowd, specifically how I see US agriculture evolving over the next several years, specifically in light of the balance among corn, soy, and biofuels, with ethanol being at the top of the list. A real quick history lesson for those of you not familiar with the space: the United States has used gasoline and diesel for pretty much everything for transport for the entire industrial age until we got to the early 2000s, when we got a fuel mandate from the federal government that said a certain percentage of most gasoline that you pump has to have a certain percentage of ethanol. In most states, it's in the 10 to 15% range. Lots of people have bitched and moaned…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/31/2026 You can see that there is about 50 BPA Missing! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update These were ears of our corn checked on one of our farms during the GammaQ crop tour earlier this month. The tip-back that was evident was a surprise. It probably should not have been considering the record high average July heat when stress degree days began to accumulate. If there are enough ears and they fill well there is still yield potential. The tour estimated our average yield on this field to be 250 bpa so it was not the end of the world. Our corn never showed drought stress but the crop responded to the heat extreme nevertheless. We believe that we have 300 bpa yield potential in our genetics and choice of maturity each season. We have never averaged 300 bpa so something happens every year to tip back the crop somehow. Climate scientists reference heat this summer as being comparable to 1936 which brings back the 89-year drought cycle narrative. If farmers in the plains states still farmed using the practices of the…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/28/2026 Watch Out for Weaker Basis and Spreads PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update New Recommendation:  Recco #1:  Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Recco #2   Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00.   Recco #3:  Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00.  Recco #4:  Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. Today is the last day for September grain longs to be liquidated or rolled before the risk of taking delivery comes on Monday. You would not expect many deliveries in this environment where the nearby corn spread is historically wide and while there are very few traders with old-crop soybeans available to let go of. The September/December corn futures spread is somewhat of a standout for it being the third year in a row that it has moved out past 20 cents, which is the rough calculation of "full carry" for offering compete coverage of the costs of storage, insurance, and interest associated with holding the grain. It may be partly that…