Katie Geerdes

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/23/2026 Re-ownership Ideas for Harvest Pressure Easing Soon PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Most farmers are likely to make sales during harvest, many had already contracted sales ahead of harvest. The University of Illinois once conducted a survey that found a surprising 91 percent of farmers made pre-harvest crop sales. Other studies have aligned with USDA estimates to show farmers usually having roughly one-third of corn and soybean crops contracted before harvest, although that number would fluctuate according to price levels. Trader positions data suggests that farmers may have conducted pre-harvest sales to a greater degree this year, taking advantage of previously much higher futures prices. In the market's run up to September, farmer selling was more than absorbed by speculative buying. Farmer selling has swamped the market since then. The sheer size of the ongoing grain harvest was overwhelming buying interest in the futures market as farmers sold large volumes of corn and soybeans while speculative traders simultaneously reduced their exposure. Now that harvest has advanced past its halfway point, seasonal pressure can begin to ease as more of the…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/22/2026 Becoming a Snowbird One Way or the Other PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The average age of a corn-belt farmer is something close to 58 years old and after a few decades of farm-work, scooping snow and sliding around on the ice, finding a warmer place to at least take a break from the winter becomes appealing. I get phone calls from farmer-friends in Cabo, Phoenix, Brownsville, Fort Lauderdale…all warmer places than Iowa in January and February. So many farmers go south in the winter that they coined the term, calling them "snowbirds". Some buy campers/motor homes so can go anywhere on wheels. Some motor homes cost as much as a nice house. Others rent or buy condos or second homes in AZ or FL. Others buy trailer-homes on site. One family said they bought 5 trailers in a park in TX and rent out 4 of them using the fifth. They said they make money from the investment. Motor homes provide mobility. There are many parks that cater to snowbirds with monthly or extended stay rental rates that come…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/21/2026 War Fighters with IRAN are Preparing for the Next Escalation PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A Pew Research poll this month found that 33% of Americans favored the way that President Trump has handled the war with Iran. That is the core base of his support that nothing he does will ever alienate them. It has never bothered me to me in a minority of opinion but I am not with that one. The only thing good that you could say about his handling of the war thus far was that he did resist impulses that could have led to even worse decisions and outcomes. I think that statement was being generous. This conflict is a very long way from any lasting resolution and there is plenty of opportunity for more mistakes.  He does have an unprecedented level of arrogant hubris to him that carries a risk that puts us all in danger. It is amazing, with all the serious issues impactful to all of us, how much time he instead spends working on vanity projects. Diesel fuel prices are…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/20/2026 My Humble Thoughts on Selling Beans Off the Combine. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The market continues to search for a reason to find a bottom. We have broken the previous weekly low in December corn, signaling potential for another sharp drop. Next support levels are at $4.5725. The fundamentals are not so bearish as the fact that managed money is tipping the scales as they continue to slowly drip out of their long positions. The trade has been so "bulled" up for it may take a while for this to run its course. One customer described Iowa yields best: "We had a record soybean yield by a wide margin. Others in our area have been experiencing the same." This was from SE Iowa. I can confirm it is similar in NW Iowa. We always want to be careful and not extrapolate our yield situation to everywhere else. There are always going to be areas that do not perform as well. But we continue to believe that soybean yield estimates can still be adjusted higher. Harvest pressure will continue the…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/19/2026 Agronomically… The Year is Going Pretty Much as Expected PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update We entered this growing season here in NW IA with a full profile of subsoil moisture and got both our corn and soybeans planted early…our soybeans on the earliest date ever. I have noted that given those two criteria, of moisture reserves and timely planting date being favorably met, that crops then are tough to kill in the subsequent growing season. There was also a building El Nino to consider impacting this growing season. This is typically a positive thing, with El Nino years typically cooler and wetter in the corn-belt. The El Nino took its time to develop and I voiced concern over the delay about the possibility of a cold wet fall. Coming home from DesMoines recently I noted that there was water standing in the field near Boxholm in central Iowa. Bet basements there flooded. I feared mudding the crop out and tearing up fields. I was concerned that the ground may have to freeze before they could finish getting the crop out…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/16/2026 Harvest Low Comes When Storage is Full PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A study from the University of Illinois found that this season's crop production will combine with grain stocks leftover from last year to equal 99 percent of nationwide storage capacity. While that actually sounds like a relief given the bearish outlook associated with expecting the second largest ever corn crop and a new record soybean crop, the devil is in the details about how most Corn Belt states individually exceed their available storage space. Missouri was projected with the leading deficit, as total supply will represent 119 percent of storage capacity; South Dakota was estimated at 111 percent, Indiana 109, Iowa 109, Nebraska 108, and Illinois at 105. The research shows storage pressure quickly finding relief by the time winter rolls around, with the Corn Belt states historically averaging 70 percent for capacity utilization upon the Dec. 1 stocks count. From now until then, basis and spreads will guide grain futures as they reflect the strength of demand and how efficiently grain is being shifted into position for…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/15/2026 Going Where the Ride Takes Us PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update It frankly may surprise some that, basis all the alarming headlines and handwringing, that there is any good news about the US fiscal condition. There is great cause for concern because there is no argument or ambiguity that the accumulating US government debt is careening toward an eventual cliff. Any brakes appear to be failing with the momentum unstoppable. We may not know where the edge of the cliff is before we go over it…but…if the bond market was as bad as some say it is, we should already be looking up at the cliff after some kind of crash having gone over it. There is more resilience to the global bond market than many expected and the Bank of the USA continues to pay interest to creditors and sell new Treasuries. The full faith and credit of the US government remain intact for now. The 10-year US Treasury rate has gone up roughly three-quarters of a percent to near 5.25% this year. A 6-15-month CD will pay in…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/14/2026 I am in Medora North Dakota PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Actually, I am back home now but where I am at has become a series. My wife and I are in the travel mode of our lives…getting around while we still can. We are the aging baby-boomer generation and on the cruise that we were recently on, our fellow ship-mates had mostly white hair…past grey. There were traffic jams of mobility scooters at the elevators. Since summer I have been to Brazil, Colorado, Canada and now North Dakota with more scheduled travel to come. I am not ready for a mobility scooter yet but have been comparing models. I was in North Dakota last week as that is where the annual meeting of the Theodore Roosevelt Association was held. They called it ‘TEDDYCON’. The TRA was chartered by Congress in 1920. I am a long-time member (though not since 1920). The annual convention location in Medora was chosen because it was the Grand Opening on July 4th, 2026 of the new Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library there. This was the…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/13/2026 My Iowa Soybeans Still Outyield The Farm In Brazil PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update On my drive through Iowa this weekend I was surprised by how little harvest had progressed in Central Iowa.  There were several noticeable spots with water still standing in fields despite having a stretch of warm weather.  I noticed one combine slowly making their way through the field leaving muddy tracks in its path.  This is extremely frustrating for Central Iowa growers as they are forced to sit and wait.  Harvest progress did not begin to pick up until well North of Hwy 20. In NW Iowa the bean harvest is looking to finish this week.  I have heard many reports of early yields hitting 80+ bpa.  However, later harvested fields have been falling as moisture levels plummet due to a warmer than average fall.  Temperatures hit almost 90 degrees this weekend.  We harvested the bulk of our soybeans in a 9-day period.  Our first day of harvest, moisture levels in beans were at 13%.  By day 3, they were at 11%.  The family did not…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/12/2026 So Far… Ag has Not Been Shown as Contributing to Iowa's Cancer Rate PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When on a cruise-ship, passengers often greet each other with the question, "where are you from"? On the Rotterdam, off Norway in 2024, we answered such a question…" we are from Iowa". The questioner responded "ah…Caitlin Clark". My wife, who is an avid WNBA-Caitlin Clark fan, was elated that someone so far away associated Iowa with the basketball star.  Unfortunately, along with corn and hogs, that is not all that we are being associated with, since Iowa became first in the nation for states with the highest rate of cancer. No one here is surprised by that, given the likelihood of knowing so many people who are living this reality. Our cancer treatment centers are very busy. They are doing a good job as treatment which has lowered the mortality rate but that is not the explanation or solution that Iowans are looking for. In my experience cancer plagues some families and not others so there is a genetic connection. Cancer is…