Katie Geerdes

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/13/2026 Fresh Test for Chinese Trade Relations Next Week PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update President Trump is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping at next week's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference. With trade between the U.S. and China an expected point of discussion, agricultural market participants wait with particular anticipation to see if the two leaders strike an agreement on lowered reciprocal tariffs. The potential for China to remove existing agricultural tariffs determines the future demand for U.S. soybean exports beyond the previous purchase commitment and shapes the competiveness of exports for other crops including corn, wheat, and cotton. While soybean export sales to China are on track to meet the standing purchase promise of 25 million metric tons, traders have expressed bearish skepticism about the demand shutting off once that total is reached. The target is double what was bought in the last marketing year, but still down considerably from over 35 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans purchased by China in 2020. Trade volume in excess of 25 million metric tons could more likely be achieved this year…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/12/2026 Years Ending in 6 are Historically the Worst in Cattle Feeding…It is 2026. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 of 2 2026 was different. First off feedlot profits had been phenomenal, setting records this cycle but so has the dramatic swing in feedlot margins resulted in a record $850 head decline (high to low) from peak profitably to recent market lows. Feedlots recorded some record market loses of $340 head. Now let's look at the recent record from Farmdocdaily on net profitability of feeding steers specifically in Kansas since the 2016 cycle low: There is a lot of red on that chart. Iowa was marginally better. I have been told that bedded barns in Iowa have a $30-$35 head cost-of-gain advantage over an open pen in KS. The barns improve feedlot performance in the heat of the summer. Looking back at 2016 there was a lot of red. Someone has calculated that over the course of periods of time that feeding cattle had been a net breakeven exercise. There were a number of years when closeouts swung from $50…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/11/2026 Years Ending in 6 are Historically the Worst in Cattle Feeding…It is 2026. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 During the Covid episode, beef packers needed dump-trucks to haul windfall profits to the bank as curtailed kills depressed cattle prices and inflated beef prices. Feedlot losses and drought ganged up on producers pausing any action toward expanding the herd in this cycle. The money trucks then went into reverse causing packers to recoil from losses caused by shrinking fed cattle numbers while ranchers are gaining a historical period of profitability. This chart above is generally how a cattle cycle works but there is more to it than changing supply. The cattle market is connected at the hip to the wealthiest demographic of Americans for which steak has always been a part of their diets. They economize by eating smaller portions. That comes with age as well. Demand is also a part of the cattle cycle and what we learned in this is how resilient and elastic beef demand actually is to higher prices. There is a difference…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/11/2026 New Reco #1 Day 2: Sell back our $4.50 Dec puts for 5 cents or better.  New Reco #2 Day 2: On 40% of expected production, buy the March $4.65 calls and Sell $4.40 March puts for net cost of 10 cents or better. (Taking into consideration the 5 cents we pick up in the value of those puts, the cost of Recco #2 would be less than a nickel). *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Focus Shifts To Demand, South American Weather A Salute To All Veterans Government offices are closed today in observance of Veterans Day. Markets will trade normal schedules. CommStock salutes all of those who served/are serving and those that lost loved ones serving our great country. On the Grains Corn and soybeans pulled back from Tuesday’s strong gains overnight amid profit-taking. Wheat futures mildly extended above yesterday’s highs as traders covered short positions amid ongoing…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/10/2026 WASDE REPORT BULLISH PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update F12Recco #1: Sell back our $4.50 Dec puts for 5 cents or better.  Recco #2: On 40% of expected production, buy the March $4.65 calls and Sell $4.40 March puts for net cost of 10 cents or better.  (Taking into consideration the 5 cents we pick up in the value of those puts, the cost of Recco #2 would be less than a nickel). Farmers looking for a strong signal that the harvest lows are in, got what they wished for today.  The corn market had given up nearly $1/bu the past six weeks, after last month’s bearish surprise sending yield estimates higher.  It appears they overcorrected last month when they added 2.7 bpa to the national yield.  They attempted to course correct in the November WASDE by trimming yield 1.6 bpa bringing the national yield down to 179.6 bpa.  Despite decreasing exports and feed usage, ending stocks still fell to an estimated 1.758 billion bushels.  While not as low as September projections, it is a step in the right direction.  By…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/09/2026 Big USDA Report Tomorrow PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update StoneX Yield estimates are the top of the range for both corn at 183.1 bpa and soybeans at 55 bpa. If I disagreed with them… I would tell you. I don't. November WASDE Estimates  StoneX Corn Estimates (2026/27) Yield: 183.1 bushels per acre (up 1 bpa from StoneX's previous forecast and above the USDA's 181.2 bpa estimate) Total Production: 16.2 billion bushels (above the USDA's forecast of 16.03 billion) Ending Stocks / Carryout: Projected around 1.920 billion bushels (higher than the trade average estimate of 1.840 billion bushels) StoneX Soybean Estimates (2026/27) Yield: 55.0 bushels per acre (up from previous forecasts and higher than the USDA's 53.1 bpa estimate) Total Production: 4.725 billion bushels (approx. 128.6 million tons) Ending Stocks / Carryout: Projected around 363 million bushels I have been forecasting a record 2026 yield for soybeans since they were planted last spring. As I look at the trendline yield for soybeans, that should be near 54 bpa. StoneX, at 55 bpa, fits my direction. Soybean yields in MN, IA and…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/06/2026 The Major Caveat for a Winter Bull Market PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Thursday's market was an example of the trade turning into sell-almost-everything mode, triggered by an avalanche in stocks that gave up everything earned from the post-election rally and then some. Investors hit the exits on tech shares, especially the names connected to artificial intelligence/data centers/computer chips, which pulled the Nasdaq index down by a whopping 5 percent. The Dow Jones had a rare outside day down that reversed a gain of more than 1,500 points from the prior session. Money that escaped the stock market had to go somewhere; aside from pure cash, there were safe-haven bids supporting Treasuries and gold. The broader bearishness kept traders wary to buy into grains and it weighed directly on the livestock at a time when both grains and livestock futures could have otherwise advanced toward turning up out of lows. For sentiment to stay risk-off after the stock market enters correction territory is a primary roadblock to a bullish winter turnaround in commodities. For episodes of fear to turn out…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/05/2026 Iowa First and America First Should Be The Same Thing! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The Iowa election results were not complicated. The Blue Wave resulted from the fact that the GOP Congress failed to check and balance the executive branch. It did not matter that the president was a republican, the GOP Congress still had a job to do and failed. The GOP Congress stopped functioning as a legislative branch of government.  My worry was that Mike Naig, the Iowa GOP Secretary of Ag, who has performed well and deserved another term, would get taken under by the wave. The Secretary of Ag race was closer than it ought to have been, but Naig survived. I will spare you the long version of why the GOP Congress failed and give one example. Iowa had 4 GOP US Congressman, one of which was Hinson. I had even voted for my GOP congressman. I went to Washington to lobby for 45Z and E-15 as a member of the Carbon board. My tolerance for the failure to approve year-around E-15 had long…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/04/2026 Who Produces It Cheaper? Brazil or USA? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Our harvest is making progress, but at our current rate, we will finish about two weeks later than last year. Corn yields appear good, which is the most important. The farm we are in now is roughly 20% above APH. While we do not expect to beat last season's overall farm yield record, we have individual fields that will. The July heat robbed us of yield by as much as 10% - 20%. But 20% of what? Chopping 20% off of 300 bpa yield potential is still a good yield. I had a college professor that used to say everyone in class started the semester with an A. It was what you did (or didn't do) that determined if you were able to keep it. Modern seed genetics have 300+ bpa potential. Or rather in theory, that is the yield you start the season with. Both weather and crop management than determine form there how much of that we get to keep. Moisture levels in corn appear to…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 11/03/2026 Lame Duck or Dead Duck Congress? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A friend of mine told me last week that he pulled money from the stock market, having become worried about the repercussions of the mid-term elections with so many ominous threats lying in wait for them to be over. These risks include a resumption of the military conflict in the war with Iran, Russian desperation intensifying the war in Ukraine overseas along with domestic risks that ICE will come out of its cold-box, hot after immigrants, and of course how the election, is or is not, settled will test us. A lot is being made of expected democratic successes in today’s mid-term elections under the illusion that… that outcome will improve overall governance by a significant amount. President Trump will never conform to traditional expectations of lame duck status. Lame duck Congresses are often quite productive in enacting legislation as the political tentacles loosen. That still requires cooperation with the administration and Trump has not been in a cooperative mood. As to the new Congress, while the democrats may…