The Commstock Report

05/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Huge Week for Ag as Middle East Tensions Persist On the Grains Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight, with the soy complex leading the move higher. Grain traders have a lot of potentially major market-moving reports and events this week, while the broader marketplace continues to monitor the situation in the Middle East. Crude oil futures strengthened overnight as President Trump rejected Iran’s response to the U.S. framework to end the war, calling it “TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!” Tehran demanded a lifting of the U.S. naval blockade and sanctions relief, while maintaining a degree of control over traffic through Hormuz, Bloomberg reported citing a person familiar with the matter. Iran also insisted that any agreement must result in an immediate end to fighting, including in Lebanon, where Israel is waging a parallel war against militant group Hezbollah. Huge Week for Agricultural Reports, Policy & Events Aside from the typical weekly data, there are potential major market-moving reports and events for agriculture. WASDE Report (Tuesday) USDA will update its 2025-26 U.S. and global balance sheets and also issue its first official look at the 2026-27 marketing year. Crop Production Report (Tuesday) USDA’s initial winter wheat…

Grains were called to open firmer following a strong finish on Friday, but commodities could later take on pressure from lower crude oil if further de-risking occurs in connection to developments with Iran. In the Headlines The public was awaiting details on Iran's response to a U.S. peace plan offer. President Trump had yet to comment on the result. Meanwhile, Iranian drones had been activated again, including in an attack against a ship near Qatar. Sunday afternoon news about U.S.-Iran war negotiations would guide the market open and form the basis of expectations about President Trump's trip to China planned for Thursday and Friday. The possibility of another meeting postponement hinged on Iran accepting a deal or not. The summit otherwise has a range of outcomes for addressing Chinese agricultural purchases, including the particular question of how soybeans are addressed. Traders will watch for reports of soybean trade activity in the lead up to the meeting. Asked on Sunday about government interventions that could possibly include suspending the federal gasoline tax, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said he was "open to all ideas" for managing high prices at the pump. The Department of Energy has been writing swap contracts to sell…

Grain traders have their attention shifted onto the May 14-15 meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in China. While Tuesday's crop report will help shape short-term market direction along with war and weather, the outcome of the China summit may ultimately prove more critical for soybean prices. That the meeting would even take place is viewed as significant after the initial trip was postponed from late April because of the outbreak of war with Iran. Reports of U.S. military transport aircraft arriving in Beijing ahead of the visit indicated that preparations were underway and that the meeting will likely proceed as planned. Simply holding the meeting would be viewed as a constructive first step toward normalizing trade relations with China. Still, traders will judge the market impact by what tangible agreements could emerge. Markets were poised to reflect what wins out among the good, bad, and ugly possibilities surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations.   This week's headlines commonly mentioned a "memo of understanding" that outlined details for ending the war with Iran. The possibility of another memo of understanding was being brought up for handling Chinese soybean purchases that could be made in advance of next week's meeting. China…

Part 2 of 3 In going through my office records when cleaning out my desk, I came across a number of things that brought back memories. I will share my nostalgia of the ethanol industry in this report.   The battle for ethanol goes back further than most remember and before my time. It was alleged to be a fight between Henry Ford who made Model Ts that ran on ethanol and J.D. Rockefeller who used Prohibition to eventually force automakers to make engines that used gasoline instead. It's easy to see why Rockefeller is so easily blamed: he and his wife became proponents of the Temperance movement to cut U.S. alcohol consumption, which ultimately led to the period of Prohibition from 1920 to 1933. The real thing that had prevented ethanol from becoming a fuel source were alcohol taxes. That was remedied by President Theodore Roosevelt in 1906 with the passage of the Free Alcohol bill.   ******   I used to read the funny paper section of the Des Moines Register and I kept the issue from Sunday July 8th 2006 in a drawer in my desk. It was the lead cartoon and it shows that they did…

05/07/2026 Markets Await Iran’s Response Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Await Iran’s Response On the Grains Wednesday’s heavy selling in the grain and soy markets eased overnight, with notable rebounds from session lows early this morning. Crude oil also continues to face pressure, though selling from yesterday has eased.Markets await Iran’s response to the latest peace proposal. The two sides are reportedly leaning toward a limited, temporary agreement, according to Reuters. The proposed framework would unfold in three stages: formally ending the war, resolving the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and launching a 30-day window for negotiations on a broader agreement, sources told Reuters. A Pakistani source and another source briefed on the mediation said a one-page memorandum to formally end the conflict was close, though gaps remain between the sides. The proposal would formally end the conflict while leaving unresolved key U.S. demands such as the restrictions on Iran's missile program and an end to its support for proxy militias in the Middle East.Meanwhile, the Israeli army says it killed the commander of an elite Hezbollah unit in an attack in the southern suburbs of Beirut on Wednesday. Other Israeli attacks took place in…

While temperatures remain cool to start the month of May, fields have had time to dry out allowing planting pace to accelerate.  As stated previously, there is no significant precipitation seen north of I-80 this week.  Heavy precipitation is seen falling in Missouri, Southern Illinois and Southern Indiana and most of Ohio.  Next week precipitation comes back to Minnesota and North Dakota but leaves Iowa and Northern Illinois mostly dry again despite for small pockets of scattered showers.   We finished planting corn on our farm May 1st.  I suspect those growers in Western Iowa that got an early start will already begin finishing this week.  US Corn planting pace reached 38% through last week, 4% above its historical average.  Over half of the US corn crop will be planted by this weekend.  Soybean planting is 33% complete, 10% above its historical average.  If we keep this up, we might have to adjust for a higher bean yield.   Temperatures continue to be the limiting factor as they remain 4 to 6 degrees below their average for this week.  As we progress through the month, they should reach their trendline temperatures at least for the Western Corn Belt by May…

05/06/2026 https://youtu.be/31sStpZbl70?si=J70r_6T8T_s924B8 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Peace Deal Winds Blowing Harder On the Grains Markets reacted sharply overnight to the report from Axios that the U.S. believes it is close to an agreement with Iran to end the war. Washington and Tehran reportedly are working on a one-page memorandum of understanding that would set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations.President Trump suspended a military initiative to guide stranded ships though the Strait of Hormuz and has reportedly been indicating to U.S. officials he wants to end the war soon. Meanwhile, China’s foreign minister stepped up its efforts to get Iran to negotiate an end to the war. Mediator Pakistan believes a deal is close. Iran has been silent, though the U.S. reportedly expects to hear from Tehran in the next 48 hours. There are signs a deal may be near. There have been such signs before, but these appear to be stronger. Grains faced heavy selling overnight. There’s risk of heavy long liquidation with the peace deal winds blowing harder, as funds have amassed what is likely to be a record net long position in grain and soy complex markets. Crude oil also faced heavy selling overnight and…

Part 1 of 3 The picture below is of the FS blender's pump that I filled my tank from Tuesday 4/28. I drive a Dodge Ram with a hemi-engine and use E-30. It is my second truck using E-30 after having put on well over 200,000 miles on the first with no engine trouble. The average price of gas was over $4 gallon nationally that day but locally E10 was still priced at $3.649 gallon in Spencer Iowa on its way higher. I bought E-30 for $2.999 gallon saving 65 cents a gallon compared to E-10. I am confused as to why consumers would not do that. Farmers, in particular, should be wise to the best choice of fuel blend. Why waste money? My truck holds 24 gallons or so when I fill up so that is $15.60 savings per tank...enough for McDonalds (or used to be). The current pricing advantage for E-30 was not the result of the war…as it has been there the whole time.   E-10 replaced MTBE poison as a gasoline additive, it is an oxygenate, reduces smog and has higher octane. All of the physical benefits of ethanol are retained with higher blends but the…

05/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Tap the Breaks; Money Flow Remains Critical Reco Day 3: Sell remaining 25% of old crop corn using July futures at $4.72 or best price.  This completes our old crop sales and should give us an average price of $4.50. Filled on May 1.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are under pressure early this morning, with HRW wheat leading declines. Markets failed to sustain buyer interest early in the overnight session. July corn futures posted an exact double-top with the March 9 spike high, while July soybeans failed to clear Monday’s high before both turned lower. Speculative money flow will remain the primary driver of price action during today’s session. Funds likely moved to a record cumulative net long position in the grain and soy markets. The broader marketplace remains edgy as traders keenly monitor the fragile ceasefire in the Middle East. Relative calm has seemingly prevailed for now after…

President Trump said that 'he was not satisfied' with the latest Iranian proposal to end the war. That is not surprising as there was no capitulation from them in it. He also says that negotiations are making great progress. That I do not believe. His latest plan to guide rather than escort neutral parties through the Strait, Project Freedom, lacks the required definition of the distinctive difference between the two…as to guiding versus escorting. As of this writing, Iran has not yet bought into it. In fact, quite the opposite as they were reportedly instigating new attacks. As commercial ships moved to attempt to take advantage of being quidded out, Iran struck the UAE and ships with drones attempting to foil the effort to escape. Watch your news-feed for updates. The President previously lamented that negotiations were struggling as they had killed the original set of Iranian leaders that they had been talking to. The evidence is that there is new top-level leadership functioning as well as a mosaic military command structure that acts independently but also follows orders. While the President told Congress otherwise, there is definitely a war going on around the Persian Gulf. The White House says…