The Commstock Report

08/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Pause to Catch Their Breath On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat pulled back a little overnight as markets paused to catch their breath after a week of strong gains. Key today will continue to be money flow, specially whether funds see the overnight weakness as a buying opportunity and continue to chase the long side of the market. Day 4 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Better Corn Yields but Still Lacking Pro Farmer released results from Day 4 of Crop Tour for Iowa and Minnesota on Thursday evening. Iowa: Ear counts were down versus year-ago and the three-year average… so was grain length. That led to a yield of 194.0 that was well under year-ago but up from the three-year average. The eastern side of the state was expected to pull up the average from what was found in western Iowa… and it did – just not as much as anticipated. On average, Crop Tour is historically 7.4 bu. too low in Iowa. If you add that historical miss to this year’s yield, it signals a 201.4 bu. per acre yield – well below USDA’s August estimate of 216…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/20/2026 We are Cool…Right? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The question was associated with a meme on Truth Social posted by the President with the question directed coming from Kim Jung Un. I don't subscribe to Truth Social but the more outlandish memes posted there get around which is what he intended. To me his memes remind me of Mad Magazine which subscribers of my generation could relate to. The magazine began the year that I was born, 1952 and saw it heyday in the 1970's. Topics that used to be Mad Magazine material are pretty common stuff today. Is there a historical ally that our president has not offended yet in some way? Give him time. Long-term relationships and security commitments have been tossed out like a game of pick-um-up sticks where we hardly know where to start now to reorganize the US place in the stack of the world. Despite his meme, the president bristled at being later questioned about it. For reference, Kim Jung Un is our enemy. So is Putin. Kim is sending another 30,000 NK troops…

08/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video $5 Corn Returns On the Grains: December corn futures rose to $5 overnight for the first time since May 19 and bulls have the May high at $5.06 1/2 in their sights. November soybeans are within 15 cents of the July high at $12.56 1/2. Those respective highs will be key tests for the strength of the latest wave of fund buying. While some suggest markets are trying to ration use amid falling supply expectations, spreads tell a different story. The conflicting message suggests this is little more than a money flow game. Wheat futures have seen buyer interest build through the overnight session and are now solidly higher early this morning. December SRW futures pushed to their highest price since July 24. That day’s contract high at $7.28 1/4 stands as a key test for bulls; it’s currently about 25 cents away. Day 3 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Better Corn but Still Disappointing Pro Farmer released results from Day 3 of Crop Tour for Illinois and the western three crop districts in Iowa (1,4 and 7) on Wednesday evening. Illinois: The trend of disappointing ear counts was broken –…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/19/2026 Corn Versus Cows-South Dakota’s Great Mistake PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update We expect "the market" to fix low prices but sometimes low prices are created by "the market" too. I think South Dakota is a real-life example of how market signals can get short-circuited. Today we have a cow-shortage and a corn-surplus in the US and South Dakota is part of the reason why. Over recent years a lot of acres in South Dakota that used to be ranchland with cows is now growing corn instead. $7 corn proved to be an illusion (bait) that brought marginal acres into corn production but now they are tied up and will not easily be converted back. As you travel east to west across the state, fewer South Dakota corn growers have the soil type to grow corn profitably so are consistently losing money as marginal producers kept in business by crop insurance and USDA ACHs. Ranchers there however, are highly profitable. South Dakotans also made the mistake of rejecting CO2 pipelines which would add demand to the corn market by reducing the…

08/19/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Money Chasing Long Soybeans Again On the Grains: Soybeans rallied sharply overnight but haven’t taken out Tuesday’s intraday highs yet. If that happens, a new wave of buying could be unveiled. Aside from Crop Tour results, traders are monitoring Chinese demand as USDA announced another daily new-crop sale of two cargoes on Tuesday. The question now becomes will Chinese buying continue with November futures back well above $12? Remember… China’s state-owned firms don’t care nearly as much about price as commercial firms. Soybeans being purchased now are going into state reserves and will be auctioned at a later date – a year or more from now. What seems pricey now may be cheap when the soybeans are eventually sold onto the Chinese domestic market down the road. Of course, the flip could be the case, too. Corn futures are modestly higher this morning, following soybeans. Wheat markets are mostly lower, though SRW contracts are trying to firm. Day 2 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Rinse and Repeat from Day 1 Pro Farmer released results from Day 2 of Crop Tour for Indiana and Nebraska on Tuesday evening. It was basically…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/18/2026 History Favors Additional Yield Cuts….But??? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I have always noticed how the general market sentiment is that August weather means very little to corn production as it is predominately "made" in the month of July. I have never understood that. To be clear, July weather has an oversized impact on yields, but the trade often acts like the crop has already been harvested and is in the bin. August weather can easily have 30+ bpa impact on final yields as both temperature and rainfall help the fill. Look no further than last year where yields were headed for 188.8+ bpa at the start of August, only to go through terrible conditions the second half of August. USDA was forced to backtrack, dropping yields 2.3 bpa by January due to disease and drought. Last week we pointed out that history favors the USDA decreasing yields between August and January. To be more precise, in the last ten years, the USDA decreased yields in seven out of the last ten years between August to January. So while chance favors a…

08/18/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Adding More Risk Premium On the Grains Soybeans led a round of price strength in the grain and soy markets overnight, with the November contract pushing to the highest since July 27. December corn futures reached their highest since May 20. Both were boosted by a drop in crop condition ratings and Day 1 results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Today, traders will get reports and images from fields in Indiana and Nebraska, with results of those states released tonight. The stakes are getting higher as Crop Tour pushes into the bigger producing states. Wheat traders continue to monitor the Black Sea situation. There’s not much new news on that front. Attacks between Ukraine and Russia is ongoing and grain export capacity has been compromised. Whether its crop- or geopolitical-based, traders are adding risk premiums to grain and soy futures. Day 1 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Produces Some Surprises… And Varied Conditions Pro Farmer released results from Day 1 of Crop Tour for South Dakota and Ohio on Monday evening. South Dakota featured rapidly maturing crops and impacts from heat and moisture stress earlier in the growing season.…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/17/2026 Like I Wrote…Too Hot-Too Long PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Our Kansas staff tells us that the state is toast. A stress degree day is added to the total when high temps surpass 86^. 140 or higher accumulated SDDs impairs the yield potential so that a trendline yield becomes aspirational. The accumulated SDDs for Kansas would confirm their bleak assessment. This is the worst of the worst. Anything not under a running center pivot is not green. Nebraska and the Dakotas are similar but with regions in them that escaped, while nowhere in Kansas did. They are now hoping that it will rain to put some moisture in the soil for planting winter wheat soon. Iowa planted twice as many acres to corn as did Kansas and was the USDA’s top state corn yield projecting 216 bpa compared to 210 bpa in 2025. Most corn production in Iowa is in the northern 2/3rds of the state and there is a rare station that is reporting SDDs above 140. It would appear that Iowa survived the heat. I have no problem…

08/17/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crop Damage, Yield Potential Assessments Start Today On the Grains Corn and soybean futures built on last week’s strong gains overnight amid crop concerns. The assessment of damage from last week’s storms and yield potential will a focal point as Pro Farmer Crop Tour samples fields across seven Corn Belt states this week (see “Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below for details and insider insights). Winter wheat markets pulled back from last week’s strong gains, despite ongoing Black Sea attacks.Forecasts call for seasonal to slightly below-normal temperatures and rainfall chances this week, though they won’t be nearly as heavy rains seen across from eastern Nebraska through Ohio last week. The two-week forecast indicates slightly elevated temps and near-normal rainfall for most of the Corn Belt. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will remain a focal point. USDA has announced daily new-crop soybean sales for four straight days as China’s state-owned firms continue to make goodwill purchases ahead of President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping in Washington in late September. Meanwhile, Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin will auction another 361,728 MT of state-owned soybeans procured from 2022 to 2025 – mostly 2022 –…

Grain were called to a slightly stronger start on additional war premium and returning weather risk. In the Headlines The crop yield debate continues to build based on fresh reference points from last week's USDA report. Corn and soybean yields were down by more than anticipated by the average trade guesses, with corn yield at 180.7 versus the prior projected trend of 183 and soybean yield at 52.7 versus 53 from July. The arguments for higher or lower depend on views about damage already done before early August rains, and how much the drought-stricken Plains can pull away from national averages propped up by the Midwest. Relatedly, traders were discounting the large corn acreage increase for what may not make it to harvest. Among the standout individual state yield estimates, Iowa and Indiana were predicted with new corn yield records while Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were projected with record soybean yields. Part of the assessment will include the possibility of rains over the last week having tilted more damaging than beneficial because of all the flooding. Ukraine was the common subject of headlines over the weekend for launching "one of its largest aerial attacks of the war." Russia and Ukraine…