The Commstock Report

There is no question as to who calls the tune in every sector or subject today domestically and geopolitically. A Truth Social comment from President Trump gets immediate attention. What he says may not make broad sense, but it makes sense to him and commands attention. Markets respond. His comment that he wanted China to add another 8 mmts of US soybeans to their first tranche of purchases brought an immediate response from the market. For good reason, the trade thought that they were done buying for the time being as the Brazilian harvest took precedence. The background info was that China reportedly found out about Trumps command that he wanted them to buy another 8 mmts of soybeans when we did. That would mean that they had no advance warning and thus taken no preparation so was a surprise to them too. Would they comply without reciprocal concessions and what might they be? They thought that they had complied with the previous agreement for 12 mmts and were ready to buy cheaper Brazilian soybeans. Marketwise, timing-wise this makes no sense. Yet, we have all come to know that what makes traditional sense may not be the relative factor as…

02/09/2026 Soyoil Responds To India Trade Deal; Did China Buy Beans? Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded lower overnight, while soyoil found support from the interim trade framework between India and the United States. For U.S. agriculture, the deal provides measured entry into India’s market, especially for value-added and feed products. India agreed to cut or eliminate import duties on U.S. ag products, including soyoil, dried distillers’ grains (DDGs), red sorghum for animal feed, tree nuts, fresh and processed fruit, wine and spirits and additional products. India held firm on sectors considered economically and politically sensitive: Dairy — a long-standing red line due to livelihood concerns for millions of small producers; staple grains and pulses tied to food security programs; and broad resistance to large-scale market opening in basic farm commodities. India did not open broad access for U.S. corn, which is politically sensitive and tied to domestic price supports and food programs. However, the DDGs concession by New Delhi opens indirect access for U.S. corn. China Shopping for U.S. Soybeans China was reportedly seeking bids for U.S. soybeans on Friday, with some saying…

There should be more appreciation of the phenomenal run on corn exports this season, but the lingering question is whether the surprising growth of export demand is a product of corn prices having been undervalued. By saying corn export demand is 'surprising,' that is partly referring to comparison with USDA estimates that have once again been lagging reality, although the earlier projections may have originally been a driving factor for lower corn prices in the first place. Record corn exports again coincide with a period of doubt about Chinese demand for U.S. crops. The last time corn exports were close to this strong was 2020/2021, which not only marked the last major crop price lows, but also the last time there were debates about a new U.S.-China trade deal.   This week was notable for having the export inspections report show corn shipments down to a marketing year low, and they were still very strong, but actually lower than soybean inspections. We have long talked about how this year was going to be a switch for the U.S. corn and soybean export programs because we did not have the Chinese soybean demand already pre-booked for fall, but we were more…

02/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Big Gov’t Payments Won’t Stop Mounting Farm Stress On the Grains After trading lower initially overnight, soybeans have firmed this morning, pushing to new weekly highs. Corn is mildly lower, while wheat markets are narrowly mixed. For the week, soybeans are sharply higher, corn is slightly higher and wheat markets are lower. USDA’s first look at 2026 farm income shows U.S. net farm income dipping to $153.4 billion, down 0.7% from a sharply revised $154.5 billion for 2025 — and dramatically lower than the $179.8 billion USDA projected for 2025 just last September. That $25.3 billion downgrade to 2025 fundamentally resets the sector’s trajectory heading into 2026. Net cash farm income tells a slightly different story. It is forecast at $158.5 billion in 2026, up from $153.9 billion in 2025 — but that 2025 number itself reflects a nearly $27 billion cut from the September outlook. Cash receipts for crops are expected to rise modestly to $240.8 billion in 2026, while total animal receipts are projected to drop sharply to $273.9 billion, with lower prices for milk and eggs driving much of the decline. Direct government payments are forecast at $44.34 billion, up sharply from $30.54 billion in 2025. The main…

Part 2 of 2 Canadians are thinking that they are independent and I am less convinced that will be successful in remaining independent until enduring a lot more pain first. Canadians are an optimistic lot telling each other how they are winning this confrontation with us but are only trying to bolster their own confidence. The engagement is just beginning. They are shifting their alliances to Europe and opening to China which is just going to make Trump irater so look for more retribution. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says that Canadas trade deal with China will open the door to the demise of the USMCA. The negotiation has begun even though direct talks have broken off. Canada knew that was coming regardless. Essentially, a close Canadian arrangement with China would violate president Trumps perception of the Monroe Doctrine. I think that he will try to boil Canada awhile before he tries to eat them. I think that prospects are very remote that Canada becomes another US state. If wrong, they are more likely to become our 53rd state in order behind Venezuela and Greenland. Or maybe Argentina will be the 53rd and Canada the 54th? That would average one new territory…

02/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Triggers Euphoria in Soybean Market On the Grains Soybeans sharply extended Wednesday’s surge during overnight trade but remained well below yesterday’s highs. Corn and wheat are trading around a penny higher early this morning, pulled begrudgingly higher by the strength in soybeans. Volatility remained elevated in commodities overnight, with pressure on the Bloomberg Commodity Index driven by sharp losses in silver. Crude oil also declined as Iran confirmed it would hold negotiations with the U.S. in Oman on Friday. The U.S. dollar index continued its rebound from the late-January plunge to the lowest level since February 2022. President Trump’s Truth Social post on Wednesday following a phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping triggered a bullish response in the soybean market. Trump said he encouraged Xi to have China purchase more U.S. ag goods, including increasing 2025-26 soybean buys to 20 MMT. He also reiterated that China has committed to buy 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans for 2026-27. Whether China buys the soybeans at levels Trump referenced remains to be seen, as there was no confirmation from Xi (or any other Chinese official), but the soybean market has aggressively…

Part 1 of 2   President Trump is taking the Monroe Doctrine thing to another level. His hemispheric foreign policy is actually a combination of Manifest Destiny and the Monroe Doctrine that when combined becomes the Donroe Doctrine. The Monroe Doctrine essentially is that other global powers should stay out of our “yard.” Manifest Destiny meant when we took anything, we thought should be owned by us on this continent, making it part of our “yard.” Most Americans support the Doctrine and the Destiny. Our “yard” is defined as this hemisphere. Is Greenland part of our “yard”? Sure, it is, as the tectonic fault line is in Iceland. I was there once. He wants Russia and China out of our hemisphere which is a very good thing but has no intention of reciprocating. The one thing that we have that they don’t is a blue-water navy. You can buy and maintain one of those for $257 bln annually which no one else in the world can remotely afford. Most countries spend on their entire militaries just what we do funding ICE. That is just the current sunk cost to maintain our Navy as DJT plans a 50% increase in overall…

02/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Drift Aimlessly Lower On the Grains Corn, soybeans and SRW wheat pulled back from Tuesday’s gains during overnight trade, while HRW and HRS wheat remained under pressure. The U.S. dollar index is firmer, as are most metals and energy markets. Kansas reported winter wheat conditions improved one percentage point to 61% good/excellent during January, though that’s still down nine points from last fall. Winter wheat conditions in some other states will be released by USDA later this morning. On the geopolitical front, Russia and Ukraine started another round of U.S.-brokered peace talks in Abu Dhabi. Iran has asked the U.S. to move diplomatic talks originally planned for Turkey to Oman and to limit the agenda to the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program. Tehran is resisting U.S. pressure to include its ballistic-missile program and support for allied militias in the Middle East in the negotiations. On Tuesday, a U.S. jet shot down an Iranian drone after it “aggressively approached” the Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea. Breakdown Of Proposals For 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit The Treasury Department and IRS released a notice of proposed rulemaking laying out detailed…

I advised that subscribers start turtling up over a year ago. If you don’t know who Ray Dalio is then google him up or check him out on you-tube.  Ray Dalio a well-known billionaire economic commentator who doesn’t act like a billionaire. He came out with some specific advice as to how he thinks that we should turtle up. He begins with the premise that long term economic cycles are converging for a major financial reset that rhymes with the 1930’s. He lays out a format where there are 8 stages that a debt cycle goes through and we are in number 7. Number 8 will feel like we stepped into an elevator shaft. He says that we have 6-12 months to position and should do 4 things.   Dalio’s first piece of advice was to buy gold and silver. I bought physical as well as ETFs in gold and silver some time ago and then remained inactive holding through the entire rally until adding to my gold ETF last Friday. Dalio wants to own physical silver and not ETFs (I own both). He makes a good argument to own the physical commodity. I also own a platinum ETF. Having…

02/03/2026 Soyoil Boosted By U.S./India Trade Deal, Despite Lacking Details Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video today. On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight amid a sharp rise in soy oil futures. Corn and SRW wheat modestly followed to the upside, while the two other wheat markets mildly favored the downside. Gold and silver posted strong gains, while energy markets and the U.S. dollar stabilized after Monday’s strong moves. The U.S. and India reached a trade agreement on Monday, lowering tariffs on Indian goods. President Trump is also removing the extra 25% duty on Indian goods he applied in response to India’s purchases of crude from Russia. In total, the moves will reduce the overall duties on many Indian goods from 50% to 18%. India will reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers against the U.S. to zero, while agreeing to purchase $500 billion of American goods, including agricultural products. While specific details of the ag purchases were lacking, soyoil is expected to be a potential big winner. India is the world’s largest importer of edible oils and soyoil could account for a larger share under the new trade deal. However, details of the deal will be…