Katie Geerdes

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/19/2026 Agronomically… The Year is Going Pretty Much as Expected PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update We entered this growing season here in NW IA with a full profile of subsoil moisture and got both our corn and soybeans planted early…our soybeans on the earliest date ever. I have noted that given those two criteria, of moisture reserves and timely planting date being favorably met, that crops then are tough to kill in the subsequent growing season. There was also a building El Nino to consider impacting this growing season. This is typically a positive thing, with El Nino years typically cooler and wetter in the corn-belt. The El Nino took its time to develop and I voiced concern over the delay about the possibility of a cold wet fall. Coming home from DesMoines recently I noted that there was water standing in the field near Boxholm in central Iowa. Bet basements there flooded. I feared mudding the crop out and tearing up fields. I was concerned that the ground may have to freeze before they could finish getting the crop out…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/16/2026 Harvest Low Comes When Storage is Full PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update A study from the University of Illinois found that this season's crop production will combine with grain stocks leftover from last year to equal 99 percent of nationwide storage capacity. While that actually sounds like a relief given the bearish outlook associated with expecting the second largest ever corn crop and a new record soybean crop, the devil is in the details about how most Corn Belt states individually exceed their available storage space. Missouri was projected with the leading deficit, as total supply will represent 119 percent of storage capacity; South Dakota was estimated at 111 percent, Indiana 109, Iowa 109, Nebraska 108, and Illinois at 105. The research shows storage pressure quickly finding relief by the time winter rolls around, with the Corn Belt states historically averaging 70 percent for capacity utilization upon the Dec. 1 stocks count. From now until then, basis and spreads will guide grain futures as they reflect the strength of demand and how efficiently grain is being shifted into position for…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/15/2026 Going Where the Ride Takes Us PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update It frankly may surprise some that, basis all the alarming headlines and handwringing, that there is any good news about the US fiscal condition. There is great cause for concern because there is no argument or ambiguity that the accumulating US government debt is careening toward an eventual cliff. Any brakes appear to be failing with the momentum unstoppable. We may not know where the edge of the cliff is before we go over it…but…if the bond market was as bad as some say it is, we should already be looking up at the cliff after some kind of crash having gone over it. There is more resilience to the global bond market than many expected and the Bank of the USA continues to pay interest to creditors and sell new Treasuries. The full faith and credit of the US government remain intact for now. The 10-year US Treasury rate has gone up roughly three-quarters of a percent to near 5.25% this year. A 6-15-month CD will pay in…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/14/2026 I am in Medora North Dakota PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Actually, I am back home now but where I am at has become a series. My wife and I are in the travel mode of our lives…getting around while we still can. We are the aging baby-boomer generation and on the cruise that we were recently on, our fellow ship-mates had mostly white hair…past grey. There were traffic jams of mobility scooters at the elevators. Since summer I have been to Brazil, Colorado, Canada and now North Dakota with more scheduled travel to come. I am not ready for a mobility scooter yet but have been comparing models. I was in North Dakota last week as that is where the annual meeting of the Theodore Roosevelt Association was held. They called it ‘TEDDYCON’. The TRA was chartered by Congress in 1920. I am a long-time member (though not since 1920). The annual convention location in Medora was chosen because it was the Grand Opening on July 4th, 2026 of the new Theodore Roosevelt Presidential Library there. This was the…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/13/2026 My Iowa Soybeans Still Outyield The Farm In Brazil PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update On my drive through Iowa this weekend I was surprised by how little harvest had progressed in Central Iowa.  There were several noticeable spots with water still standing in fields despite having a stretch of warm weather.  I noticed one combine slowly making their way through the field leaving muddy tracks in its path.  This is extremely frustrating for Central Iowa growers as they are forced to sit and wait.  Harvest progress did not begin to pick up until well North of Hwy 20. In NW Iowa the bean harvest is looking to finish this week.  I have heard many reports of early yields hitting 80+ bpa.  However, later harvested fields have been falling as moisture levels plummet due to a warmer than average fall.  Temperatures hit almost 90 degrees this weekend.  We harvested the bulk of our soybeans in a 9-day period.  Our first day of harvest, moisture levels in beans were at 13%.  By day 3, they were at 11%.  The family did not…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/12/2026 So Far… Ag has Not Been Shown as Contributing to Iowa's Cancer Rate PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When on a cruise-ship, passengers often greet each other with the question, "where are you from"? On the Rotterdam, off Norway in 2024, we answered such a question…" we are from Iowa". The questioner responded "ah…Caitlin Clark". My wife, who is an avid WNBA-Caitlin Clark fan, was elated that someone so far away associated Iowa with the basketball star.  Unfortunately, along with corn and hogs, that is not all that we are being associated with, since Iowa became first in the nation for states with the highest rate of cancer. No one here is surprised by that, given the likelihood of knowing so many people who are living this reality. Our cancer treatment centers are very busy. They are doing a good job as treatment which has lowered the mortality rate but that is not the explanation or solution that Iowans are looking for. In my experience cancer plagues some families and not others so there is a genetic connection. Cancer is…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/09/2026 Two in a Row for Bearish Corn Supply Surprises PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The October crop reports were bearish on almost all accounts. Like the Sept. 30 grain stocks report, corn stood out for showing the biggest surprise, this time with yield jumping 2.7 bushels per acre on the month to 181.2. Most views were looks for a lower number, including with the thought that USDA should not have room to be too aggressive in either direction given the slimmer availability of samplings that could be collected from a delayed start to the Midwest harvest. As one could be suspicious of, the corn yield change was not linked to a sharp reduction of the harvested acreage percentage. Compared to the corn yield shock, it was far less surprising even that the soybean yield was taken up to what would be a new record of 53.1 bushels per acre. Also bearish was the report for wheat as exports were cut despite the higher production estimate coming into the balance sheet. Reasons for the corn yield surprise have to be surmised…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/08/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 3 of 3 The political campaign for 'Regenerative Ag' did not come from Democratic Ag Secretary candidate Chris Jones who supports it but from the GOP candidate for IA Governor, Zack Lahn, who claims to be a Regenerative Ag farmer. When he describes his farm to the public, he says that "he farms weird". I think what that means is that Lahn is walking his talk. Lahn also claims to have "Big Ag" in his sights as a villain. Politicians need to have a villain. For Chris Jones and Zack Lahn to have such similar views is a most unusual policy distribution politically.  What practices make up regenerative Ag? AI says regenerative Ag is a philosophy which in the political world becomes an ideology. AI says that…Regenerative agriculture is a holistic farming philosophy focused on restoring soil health, boosting biodiversity, and improving water retention. Rather than relying on a strict legal definition, it is defined by a core set of practices designed to work with natural ecosystems rather…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/07/2026 Yield Cuts Needed For $6 Corn – Brazil Almost Has a New President PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After a window tour across Iowa last week, I could only identify three soybean fields that were not ready for a combine. (One of them happened to be mine). I was surprised at how much had matured. Some fields have been ready for nearly three weeks while the rain system played out, with grain quality suffering accordingly. Pretty much every corner of the state is wet, just varying to what degree. Farmers in Northern Iowa that got less rain have already begun harvest, meanwhile Central Iowa received over 15" in the month of September alone. Cleary that region will take more time for things to dry out. One more observation I would make, is that while the corn looked good, the soybeans as a general statement, are some of the best I have seen. They are clean, extremely uniform and should bring well above average APH for many. This reinforced our belief that while corn yield estimates could be revised lower, soybean…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/06/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 of 3 Iowa clean water advocate and candidate for Secretary of Agriculture Chris Jones collated his collective thoughts on the structure of our Agriculture into the book 'Swine Republic'. Given today's genetics and production practices we start out each growing season with 300 bpa yield potential for corn. That says something in and of itself. At one time, we had 200 bpa as a yield goal and now the state yield average exceeds that. With 300 bpa as our goal, something always happens each season to trim the fluff off the yield. In 2025 it was wind damage and this year it was the record July heat. The level of subsoil moisture reserves and planting date are the first dominant variants to achieving full yield potential. In 1973 we had livestock chores to do morning and night and had a 6-row planter (which we eventually traded up to a 12-row). We would get 50-80 acres planted in a day. I farmed about 400 acres back then. Now…