Katie Geerdes

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/09/2026 Two in a Row for Bearish Corn Supply Surprises PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The October crop reports were bearish on almost all accounts. Like the Sept. 30 grain stocks report, corn stood out for showing the biggest surprise, this time with yield jumping 2.7 bushels per acre on the month to 181.2. Most views were looks for a lower number, including with the thought that USDA should not have room to be too aggressive in either direction given the slimmer availability of samplings that could be collected from a delayed start to the Midwest harvest. As one could be suspicious of, the corn yield change was not linked to a sharp reduction of the harvested acreage percentage. Compared to the corn yield shock, it was far less surprising even that the soybean yield was taken up to what would be a new record of 53.1 bushels per acre. Also bearish was the report for wheat as exports were cut despite the higher production estimate coming into the balance sheet. Reasons for the corn yield surprise have to be surmised…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/08/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 3 of 3 The political campaign for 'Regenerative Ag' did not come from Democratic Ag Secretary candidate Chris Jones who supports it but from the GOP candidate for IA Governor, Zack Lahn, who claims to be a Regenerative Ag farmer. When he describes his farm to the public, he says that "he farms weird". I think what that means is that Lahn is walking his talk. Lahn also claims to have "Big Ag" in his sights as a villain. Politicians need to have a villain. For Chris Jones and Zack Lahn to have such similar views is a most unusual policy distribution politically.  What practices make up regenerative Ag? AI says regenerative Ag is a philosophy which in the political world becomes an ideology. AI says that…Regenerative agriculture is a holistic farming philosophy focused on restoring soil health, boosting biodiversity, and improving water retention. Rather than relying on a strict legal definition, it is defined by a core set of practices designed to work with natural ecosystems rather…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/07/2026 Yield Cuts Needed For $6 Corn – Brazil Almost Has a New President PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update After a window tour across Iowa last week, I could only identify three soybean fields that were not ready for a combine. (One of them happened to be mine). I was surprised at how much had matured. Some fields have been ready for nearly three weeks while the rain system played out, with grain quality suffering accordingly. Pretty much every corner of the state is wet, just varying to what degree. Farmers in Northern Iowa that got less rain have already begun harvest, meanwhile Central Iowa received over 15" in the month of September alone. Cleary that region will take more time for things to dry out. One more observation I would make, is that while the corn looked good, the soybeans as a general statement, are some of the best I have seen. They are clean, extremely uniform and should bring well above average APH for many. This reinforced our belief that while corn yield estimates could be revised lower, soybean…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/06/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 of 3 Iowa clean water advocate and candidate for Secretary of Agriculture Chris Jones collated his collective thoughts on the structure of our Agriculture into the book 'Swine Republic'. Given today's genetics and production practices we start out each growing season with 300 bpa yield potential for corn. That says something in and of itself. At one time, we had 200 bpa as a yield goal and now the state yield average exceeds that. With 300 bpa as our goal, something always happens each season to trim the fluff off the yield. In 2025 it was wind damage and this year it was the record July heat. The level of subsoil moisture reserves and planting date are the first dominant variants to achieving full yield potential. In 1973 we had livestock chores to do morning and night and had a 6-row planter (which we eventually traded up to a 12-row). We would get 50-80 acres planted in a day. I farmed about 400 acres back then. Now…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/05/2026 Big Agriculture Put in Election Crosshairs PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 3 I never thought of myself or our farm in terms of being, or representing, what politically has become termed 'Big Agriculture' the way that the politicos define and portray it. I am just a farmer trying to be the most productive that I can be to the benefit of my family and community. We are a legacy farm family as we have farmed land in which we have had title for over a century. We received our 'Century Farm' award at the Iowa State Fair from Iowa Ag Secretary Mike Naig. I like Mike and believe that he has represented and promoted the interests of my family and other farm families in the state.  I am not politically active in any kind of aggressive sense. I have rarely made financial contributions or participated in organized political events. I consider myself an independent. I do express my opinion on policy impacting Ag as this report is opinionated and I advocate for our interests. Often that appears…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/02/2026 Sour Tone Set for Harvest PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update October is underway and grain traders have their focus on harvest progress picking up as the weather clears, but there is worth in one more look back at the September stocks report. With the report came answers to two important questions about whether last year's corn yield had been significantly overstated and whether old-crop soybean stocks were much tighter than previously predicted. USDA did not budge on the corn yield, but soybean inventories were recognized to be slimmer than most traders expected. The bearish reactions led by corn risked breaking the bullish price trends that had pushed corn futures above $5, soybeans above $13, and wheat above $7. Instead of offering a correction to an inflated corn yield estimate, the report was a reminder of abundant corn stocks being carried over as another large crop begins harvest. One silver lining within the inventory count was that a substantial proportion of corn stocks had shifted from on-farm to off-farm over the last quarter, suggesting that farmers had been selling more aggressively…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 10/01/2026 Why Wall Street Is Quietly Buying America's Best Farmland PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Are they now? That was the title from a podcast that caught my attention. It was a blanket statement that in reality fits more like a quilt. It began…" For most of American history, the value of farmland was dictated entirely by what you could grow out of it. But in late 2025, 35.5 acres of land in Sioux County, Iowa, sold at auction for $32,000 an acre. Hold that record-breaking price against the financial reality of the year it happened: corn and soybean prices were weak, profit margins were deeply compressed, and input costs for fertilizer and equipment were high. By every operational metric of what that ground could actually yield, it was a terrible time to buy land. A typical piece of cropland generates roughly $160 an acre in rent. Set against the multi-million-dollar capital cost required to buy premium dirt at the top of the market, that leaves a gross yield of roughly 1% before property taxes, management fees, or seed purchases. No…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/30/2026 The Argument for $6 Corn Just Got That Much Harder. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Ouch!  We were expecting a quarterly stocks report with little fanfare, but USDA had other plans.  The corn market is down some 20 cents today as the Sept 1st quarterly stocks report saw the average estimate up some 177 million bushels over what the average trade guess was.  Some had speculated that last season's crop was overstated.  In actuality, it appears what was overstated was demand estimates.  Much of that appears to have come from a cut in feed usage, which we had previously stated was too high.  They just waited until now to tell us.  If we were to add this 177 million bushels to the last WASDE report, we would get an ending stock number for the 26/27 season of 1.744 billion bushels.  While tighter than last year, it makes the argument for $6 corn that much more difficult.  What we still don't know is how much of this can be offset in the October WASDE report.  The USDA would have to cut…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/29/2026 I Hate Russia More Than the President Does PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Russians are cruel people, a conclusion derived from observing their long history, the record of which applied to how they treat themselves besides others. They do not contest it with cruelty being almost a point of national pride. They are the ones that shoot their own soldiers to prevent them from retreating. Millions under Russian dominance were purposely starved to death and they also sent millions to Gulags in Siberia in order to rule the rest by fear. They used peasants as slaves long after slavery was ended by the rest of the world. When they had chances at democracy, after the fall of the Tsar and again after the breakup of the Soviet Union, they chose another repressor instead. Imagine how much wealth that the US has expended since WWII defending itself from Russia during the Cold War. Unlike Islamic extremists, they are not ideologues. They will kill, rape and pillage with the best of history’s barbarians but Russians will not strap explosives to their chest…

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 09/28/2026 I am in Canada! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Yeah…they let me in on my US passport. They have been nice to me so far. This time I came by sea as my forefathers did some 386 years ago. I used a similar route to theirs, traveling up the Saint Lawrence Seaway to Quebec City. My mother was a Demars which was the Americanized version of the French Demers. My distant grandfather came to Quebec from Dieppe France with 3 sons, one of which was our linage. They were reportedly part of a contingent of 800 French families who had their trip paid for and who were bequeathed property in Canada by the King to encourage the populating of New France. My distant grandfather got his 3 sons established in Quebec and then returned home to France which he and the rest of family then never left. Our 14-day cruise left from Boston with an itinerary of Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island, Iles de la Madeleine, the Saguenay Fjord, Quebec City and then Portland Maine on the return. My forefathers…