Joshua Van Ryswyk

05/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Proving Springtime Rallies Don’t Last On the Grains Corn and wheat opened higher overnight and faded, while soybeans took the opposite path and are trading modestly firmer early this morning. Wheat is proving once again that springtime rallies are really difficult to sustain – even in poor crop years. With harvest results starting to trickle in from the Southern Plains and full-blown harvest just around the corner, speculative money is flowing out of long positions, especially winter wheat markets. Corn is following. Crude oil is weaker amid optimism that a U.S./Iran peace deal and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are coming, despite recent attacks. If support at Tuesday’s spike low and the May 6 low are violated, it would point nearby WTI crude oil futures toward the $89 level that provided support in March and April, after the initial upside price spike due to the war. Crop Emergence Jumps Corn emergence jumped 21 points to 60%, two percentage points ahead of the five-year average. Soybean emergence increased by 17 points to 49%, nine points ahead of average. This week’s heat in the western and central Corn Belt…

05/26/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bears Keep Grip as Iran Deal Fatigue Grows On the Grains Grain and soy futures traded lower coming out of the extended holiday weekend as traders have a split focus between the war situation with Iran and weather. While both could create increased volatility, money continues to flow out of grain and soy markets as traders pare their massive cumulative net long position. Warm temperatures are forecast for the western and central Corn Belt during the next week, while the eastern Belt will trend seasonal to a little cooler. The warmest temps are expected over the northwestern Corn Belt. Rainfall during the next week is expected to be limited to western and southern areas of the Corn Belt into the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys, with the remainder of the region being dry. Warm, sunny conditions will promote crop development in areas with plentiful soil moisture, but rainfall amounts will be critical for the hottest areas, where soil moisture is already lacking. On the geopolitical front, the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire overnight even as both sides said there was progress in talks to reach a peace deal. A pattern…

05/22/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Calm… But Will Pre-Weekend Storm Brew? On the Grains Grain and soy futures calmly rebounded overnight following sharp losses the past three days for corn and soybeans, and the past two days in wheat markets. Wheat markets didn’t react to news Argentina will cut its wheat export tax to 5.5% from the current 7.5%, starting in June. Focus today will be on positioning for the three-day weekend with a lot of volatile issues being uncertain, primarily China’s buying commitments and the war with Iran. Headlines will direct price action into the holiday weekend.Despite losses in recent days, corn, soybeans and wheat are poised for weekly gains. Key near-term support stands at last Friday’s knee-jerk reaction lows after traders were initially disappointed in the lack of details from the U.S./China trade deal. Traders wanting Chinese confirmation of specific purchase agreements are going to remain disappointed, as stated previously, as that’s not how Beijing handles these situations. But key will be holding above the May 15 lows. If those are violated, it would open the door to even stronger fund long liquidation. Oil rose, snapping a three-day decline, amid waning optimism over…

05/21/2026 Inflate the Debt Away! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update If you followed my advice and locked up your long-term mortgage rates when I said to you a few years ago, many of you have mortgage rates set at 2-4%. My home mortgage is 2.55%. My farm mortgage is with Farm Credit at 4.1% but they pay a dividend of around 1% which brings the effective rate down to almost 3%. Those were the best fixed rates in my lifetime. I have had people meet me in the street, thanking me, and tell me how much they saved when I had told them to refinance and lock down the low rates. Here is another piece of advice. Do not pay these mortgages off early. The reason why?... Because inflation is now 3.8% and rising.  That is higher than our mortgage rates. I do not believe that with $39 trillion in debt, much of which the Treasury has to re-finance soon, that inflation is going down. It is getter harder rather than easier for the US Treasury to be able to find willing buyers of US Treasuries at low rates. They intend…

05/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Wants Lower Grain Prices to Buy On the Grains Grain and soy futures extended Wednesday’s losses overnight, with winter wheat markets leading to the downside, though markets have come well off their session lows. Money is flowing out of long grain/soy positions – in the case of SRW wheat, into short positions. Key technical levels to watch are last Friday’s lows, the knee-jerk reaction lows to the meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping.Grain traders are clamoring for confirmation – or at least more details – from Beijing about potential U.S. agricultural purchases after the trade deal. But as previously stated, that’s not China’s MO on these matters, instead issuing calculated and reserved messages. From China’s standpoint, the lower prices drop, the better the buying opportunity.The geopolitical pendulum appears to be swinging toward a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. But the broader marketplace is treading lightly, as we’ve been down this path before only to see things fall apart. President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. was in the “final stages” with Iranian diplomacy, though warning he may resume attacks in the coming days if Iran…

05/20/2026 Following A Similar Blueprint Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk today Eric is under the weather this morning. On the Grains Grain markets generally weakened overnight amid growing market impatience that China has yet to formally confirm roughly $17 billion in additional U.S. agricultural purchases tied to recent trade discussions with the Trump administration. China’s commerce ministry said the two sides “in principle agreed to include relevant products in the reciprocal tariff reduction framework, while also setting guiding goals to expand two-way trade in agricultural products.” The statement did not say what products could be included or mention the $17 billion commitment. China’s vagueness shouldn’t be a surprise. As was the case during the agreement reached last October, China didn’t confirm actual soybean purchase levels and was much more vague than the United States. That’s likely to be the case this time as well. But the market reaction reflects a familiar pattern in U.S./China agricultural trade relations: Traders often demand immediate public verification from Beijing, while China historically has preferred to move incrementally and quietly through state buyers and commercial channels rather than through highly publicized announcements. That dynamic was evident following the October 2025…

05/18/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Details Emerge… Markets Love Details On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures strongly rebounded from sharp losses late last week as some details of what President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on during last week’s meeting are surfacing – from both the U.S. and China. Not all of what was lost in the immediate aftermath of the trade talks has been regained, but the whipsaw trade shows the knee-jerk reaction was too severe. Markets love details and now some details have emerged.Traders are also monitoring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. President Trump told Iran the “clock is ticking,” after drones targeted a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. Tehran “better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday. Funds liquidated some of their massive length as of May 12 – ahead of the late-week price plunge. Funds trimmed their net long stance held in grain and soy futures in all but soymeal. When including the final three days last week, the fund long was further reduced but they still remained heavily long. Money flow will remain critical…