Joshua Van Ryswyk

09/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video History Doesn’t Provide the Answer, But Gives Guidance On the Grain: Grain and soy complex futures are under pressure as traders take profits ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. December corn futures are trying to hold the recent triple-bottom at $5.26 1/2. There’s a void of support for about 20 cents under that level. November soybeans scored a contract high earlier overnight but have fallen back into the recent consolidation range, signaling a potential failed upside breakout. With funds record long corn and near record long soybeans, they are heavily extended to the upside. Corn and soybeans likely need bullish data from USDA to extend their rallies during harvest. Bearish data from USDA could trigger a rush of long liquidation. Wheat markets are sitting just above key support levels. USDA’s report data won’t be as directly impactful for wheat. Instead, wheat futures are likely to get much of their price direction into the weekend from corn and soybeans. Much of the focus in USDA’s reports will be on yields but harvested acres could be the wild card. Minor reductions in yield and production are…

09/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Awaiting More Demand Confirmation, USDA Data On the Grains Corn and soybeans rebounded overnight, with soybeans supported by Chinese demand. USDA announced daily sales of 340,000 MT to China and 100,000 MT to unknown destinations on Wednesday – part of the roughly 1 MMT Chinese state firms purchased Monday/Tuesday that we mentioned yesterday morning. More daily sales are expected today and/or Friday. Meanwhile, China state stockpiler Sinograin’s Sept. 9 auction of 68,013 MT of state-owned soybean reserves failed to attract any offers for a second straight week. Starting prices ranged from 4,320 to 4,390 yuan ($644 to $655) per metric ton, which was 7% to 8% above the average price from the five previous auctions that attracted strong commercial demand. Commercial firms are telling Sinograin price matters as they wait to see if 10% tariffs on U.S. soybeans will be rolled back around the planned Sept. 24 visit to Washington by President Xi Jinping. Wheat markets generally paused overnight as they continue to monitor the Black Sea conflict. While there are increased reports of potential diplomacy, Ukraine and Russia continued to heighten their attacks on each other. This is…

09/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitical Support Builds as Traders Await USDA On the Grains Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but are firmer this morning, led by the wheat markets. Wheat traders continue to monitor the situation in the Black Sea. After Russia rejected a proposal to not strike civilian cargoes in the Black Sea, its forces struck a Ukrainian cargo vessel while it was sailing toward Odesa, claiming the ship was carrying military equipment. Also, there was a Russian strike on the Moldova/Ukraine border overnight, suggesting Russia’s attacks are pushing further west. Ukraine increased its attacks on the Novorossiysk port area. Corn and soybean markets are positioning ahead of USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports on Friday. USDA’s corn and soybean estimates will feature the first objective field survey data, along with farmer surveys, satellite imagery and additional FSA acreage data since August. The corn and soybean markets are currently trading figures around the following average pre-report estimates from Reuters for yield and crop production, so anything higher than those from USDA would be price-negative, anything lower would be price-supportive. Changes to the new-crop balance sheets will be primarily driven…

09/08/2026 Funds Stay Bulled Up on Grain/Soy Markets Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning market talk this morning.On the Grains: Wheat futures posted strong gains coming out of the extended holiday weekend, as Russia rejected a proposal to end attacks on ships carrying civilian goods in the Black Sea, heightening concerns about prolonged disruptions to grain shipments. The Black Sea disruption has moved from redirecting trade to rationing it. Saudi Arabia's General Food Security Authority cancelled its tender for 535,000 MT of hard milling wheat for November-December delivery after determining that the offers were unsuitable, the first hard evidence that delivered prices have risen past what a major government buyer will pay. Corn and soybeans posted mild gains overnight. The focal point for these markets will be Friday’s USDA Crop Production and WASDE Reports. USDA’s corn and soybean estimates will feature the first objective field survey data, along with farmer surveys, satellite imagery and additional FSA acreage data since August. Private firms are releasing their corn and soybean yield and production forecasts, with more expected early this week. Wire services will release average estimates of a larger list of analysts. Commstock: Corn yield of 177.2 bu. per…

09/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Quiet for Now Ahead of Key Data, Holiday Weekend On the Grains Corn and soybean futures are trading modestly lower early this morning, while wheat has turned mostly firmer. Price action was two-sided and relatively calm overnight. Traders will comb news on the geopolitical front, weather and demand side as they prepare for the upcoming three-day holiday weekend. That could lead to increased volatility ahead of today’s closes.The broader marketplace will also be influenced by the August employment report, which will be another data point for the Fed to consider ahead of its monetary policy meeting later this month. Expectations center on roughly 53,000 non-farm payrolls added and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Outside markets are relatively quiet ahead of the potential market-moving data.On the geopolitical front, the Trump administration appears ready to restart high-level shuttle diplomacy between Moscow and Kyiv this weekend, raising expectations for a renewed push to end the war between Russia and Ukraine. U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to travel to Russia and Ukraine Saturday and Sunday, according to Russia's TASS news agency. Meanwhile, attacks between the two countries continue and grain flows out…

09/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Remain Highly Sensitive to Headlines On the Grains Grain and soy markets faced heavy selling overnight and are showing signs of short-term exhaustion on the daily charts. Wheat markets led the overnight price plunge as Russian President Vladimir Putin said there is a “chance” at peace with Ukraine. This comes on the heels of Turkey’s President Tayyip Erdogan saying earlier this week he had a plan to resurrect grain shipments from the Black Sea. A near-term peace agreement is unlikely, but the overnight price action illustrates how sensitive the wheat market is to geopolitical headlines. Soybeans are being pressured in part by a disagreement between Chinese and U.S. officials at a Group of 20 finance chiefs meeting this week. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Tuesday publicly accused Chinese officials of preventing the group from issuing a joint communique. Chinese officials reportedly didn’t like the phrase “non-market” in a sentence addressing trade imbalances, indirectly referencing China’s subsidies for state-owned firms and its outsized exports. Importantly, the U.S. is joined by other key global trading partners in criticizing Beijing for its overreliance on exports for growth. There are rumblings that the planned meeting between President…

09/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Nothing Changed but Money Flow On the Grains After posting contract highs earlier in the overnight session, corn, soybeans and SRW wheat pulled back and are under pressure early this morning. Meal, soyoil, HRW and HRS wheat didn’t post new highs but they are also weaker. Chalk up the price pressure to profit-taking after recent strong gains and heavy wave of money flow into the long side of grain and soy markets. Nothing has changed fundamentally, so money flow will determine whether the overnight weakness is seen as a fresh buying opportunity or if the corrective pullback extends. A pullback that lets markets catch their breath is healthy. It would take a sharp shift in money flow to signal short-term tops are in place. Russia and Ukraine continued their barrage of attacks on each other overnight. Grain shipments out of the Black Sea region remain restricted, with no sign of meaningful relief anytime soon. The Ukrainian Agrarian Council (UAC), the country's largest farmers' organization, advised exporters and producers to construct trading strategies on the assumption that deep-water port operations will not resume before December or January. That would cut into Ukraine’s…

09/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video New Recommendations Day 3:  Reco 1: Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Filled on Aug. 31. Reco 2: Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 3: Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 4: Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. Filled on Aug. 31. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. New Month, Money Still Flowing Long On the Grains: The flip of the calendar to September didn’t change anything in the grain and soy markets overnight, aside from corn not being the price leader. Instead, soybeans, soy oil and the winter wheat markets paced the overnight gains. Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets all posted contract highs. Soyoil futures filled the July 27 gap on the daily chart, with the EPA’s small refinery exemptions deemed better than feared (see “Other Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below for details…

08/31/2026 New Recommendations Day 2:  Reco 1: Sell 10% of 2026 corn with March 2027 futures at $5.50. Reco 2: Sell 15% of 2026 wheat with March 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 3: Sell 10% of 2027 wheat with December 2027 Chicago wheat futures at $8.00. Reco 4: Sell 10% of 2027 soybeans with November 2027 futures at $12.50. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Month-End Positioning, But Bulls Dominated August On the Grains: Corn and soybean futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn trading near unchanged and soybeans under light pressure early this morning. Wheat futures are facing heavier corrective selling, especially in the winter wheat markets. Markets will continue to be influenced by money flow, with weather, geopolitics, biofuels policy and other factors influencing investor decisions, so volatility is likely to remain elevated. Biofuels policy: EPA is expected today to announce its decision on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year. Two things to consider.…

08/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Buckle Up; Please Keep Hands & Feet Inside for Duration of The Ride On the Grains Front-month SRW wheat futures pushed to the highest levels in three years overnight before sharply retreating. Futures are trading around 20 cents off their overnight highs early this morning. Of note: SRW and HRW contracts have expanded limits of 70 cents today. Corn and soybeans are lower on pullbacks from Wednesday’s strong gains. Wheat remains a geopolitically headline-driven market, with focus on the Black Sea region. Russia increased its barrage on Ukraine’s grain export hub in the Odesa Oblast overnight with more than seven hours of missel and drone attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s top official said talks between Ukrainian and Russian officials could be held in ‌September and include U.S. representatives. Export abilities for both countries have been compromised over the past two months, causing concerns about supplies from the region. Traders have added roughly $1.50 of war/geopolitical premium to front-month SRW futures during that time. Soyoil futures are under heavy pressure again this morning as the market braces for EPA’s pending announcement on small refinery exemptions for the 2025 compliance year,…