10/09/26 Don’t Expect Big October Yield Changes

10/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Don’t Expect Big October Yield Changes On the Grains Corn and soybeans have firmed early this morning, while wheat futures are narrowly mixed. All three markets are trading in broad holding patterns as traders await USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports at 11 a.m. CT. Reaction to that data will determine price moves over the final two-plus hours of trade today – and could set the near-term price trend. Historical Look at USDA’s October Yield Changes There have only been two years each in which USDA has adjusted its October corn and soybean yield estimates up or down by a bushel or more. Recent history suggests major yield changes are unlikely this month. Corn Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 2 Past 10 years (2016-24): decreased 5 years; increased 5 5-year avg. (2020-24): -0.2 bu. = 178.3 10-year avg. (2016-24): no change = 178.5 5-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 10-year biggest decrease: -0.8 bu. (2023) = 177.7 5-year biggest increase: 0.2 bu. (2021, 2024) = 178.7 10-year biggest increase: 1.9 bu. (2019) = 180.4 Soybeans Past 5 years (2020-24): decreased 3 years; increased 1; unchanged…