CommStock Reports

Grains are called fractionally mixed in a quiet open that would require nothing substantial popping up in the news before markets start trading again. Grain traders are likely to look for guidance from whether stock futures and crude oil show signs of regaining stability. In the Headlines Tariffs dominated as the top focus of traders last week in a timeline that led to the latest headline about President Trump pulling back the new 25 percent import charges on goods covered by the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, including the early carve outs for U.S. automakers and agricultural products. There were no apparent exemptions or changes for the fresh tariffs levied on China. The response from China last week included retaliatory tariffs against U.S. exports that ranged from 10 percent on sorghum, soybeans, meat, and diary to 15 percent on wheat, corn, and cotton. Newly developing over the weekend was that China place tariffs against Canadian agriculture, with new taxes of 100 percent on Canola and 25 percent on pork. House Republicans released a bill on Saturday that would extend funding to the government until September, with this Friday being the next shutdown deadline. Other weekend headlines include about the advancement of a Russian military offensive against Ukraine in the Kursk region, as well as related stories about the U.S. freezing military funding to Ukraine and also pausing the sharing of military intelligence. President Trump suggested that he was considering new sanctions and tariffs against Russia to try to motivate ceasefire negotiations. Trader Positions The Commitments of Traders report had hedge ...

Blizzard conditions arrived in parts of the Midwest earlier this week and reminded us that winter is not over yet. Now meteoroligists are also signaling the alarm about a new weather risk that could raise the likelihood of a late season freeze. The sudden stratospheric warming event currently underway is being called out as the strongest of its kind in nearly 75 years. Warming of the stratosphere can break down the polar vortex and push around the jet stream so that it allows cold Artic air to come down into the United States. The aftereffects of sudden stratospheric warming can influence weather for up to a month or more after the initial collapse of the polar vortex. Lingering winter conditions may serve as a threat to developing wheat crops and could be a source of disruption for the early spring planting season.   If not for the sudden stratospheric warming threat, the two-week outlook would otherwise look like the beginning of a normal transition into spring. Warmer temperatures are in the forecast along with calls for wetter than normal conditions that most farmers will welcome. A look at precipitation rankings since January 1st shows how dry the middle of the country has been. Central Illinois has had one of its 10 driest stretches of the last 133 years. Parts of Kentucky and Mid-South have just had some of their wettest couple of months on record. The regional precipitation contrast depicts how there have recently been low-water level problems on the Mississippi and ...

Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Can Corn Reach Any Higher? You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. Above you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. Can Corn Reach Any Higher? You can click on the picture above to take you to this morning's episode. On the Grains Good morning. What we know and what we don’t know. Yesterday’s news of President Trump coming to terms with Mexico and kicking the tariff can down the road instantly rebounded the market for corn, soybeans, and hogs higher. I believe this is the theme of this administration and expect it to remain this way for some time. The question is, how do we market in this current environment? Next week, the WASDE and the Prospected Plantings report at the end of the month will set the tone for summer, as always. One could make the case for slight adjustments on the corn balance sheet with exports running 26% above last year, but this will likely be pushed down the line, especially given the current tariff-on and tariff-off talks.The weather will move into focus. It’s dry, but that can be remedied quickly if we get those April showers. I am not an amateur or professional meteorologist. I have a much more accurate way of predicting the weather: I ask my wife, and she tells me what it will be. She is 100% right all the time (kind of kidding). When we first got married, she asked what ...

I tried to put a phone call through to Dr. Elwynn Taylor that his wife took. We have shared some time together over the years. She told us that he was no longer following events or the news as he had the onset of Alzheimer's. That is regrettable news. All that we can do is keep him in our thoughts. Taylor was highly respected by the farm community. He had a down to earth demeanor and conversation that some academics struggle to master. For many years Dr. Taylor would bring up his forecast based upon the 89-year drought cycle to peak around 2025. He said that he confirmed his drought cycle with studies of tree rings and pond sentiment. Now, because of this disease, he will be unaware of whether it comes true. He would say that if it didn't happen it would be the first time in 600 years. Due to bearish charts and tariff wars, I am not ready to position for weather in the market yet. Maybe climate change will interfere but there is a lot of weird stuff going on weather-wise in the world. I would define 'weird' as events outside of the range of expectations that people had come to expect for weather parameters. Weather events are setting all kinds of records. January for example, was the hottest ever recorded. The arctic is reportedly having its warmest winter on record. Until this week the lack of snow here in NW IA is ominous. The deep diving jet stream had ...

On the Grains I am back in the saddle this morning after a fantastic trip to Commodity Classic. Thank you to all who stopped by the booth to say hello. This was my third Commodity Classic, and each year brings a different tone from producers. This year’s was surprising, most farmers said they would not change acres and chase the market. So, did we buy 94 million acres like the USDA forum said? Did they not want to acknowledge that they were chasing corn, or were they on the fence yet? I would guess a mixture of both. While the $4.70 crop insurance price looks head and shoulders better than the $10.54 soybean guarantee, the margin at $4.70 isn’t wildly higher than last year. There will be trader positioning heading into the end of the month planting intentions.

Thank you to everyone who caught our panel at the Commodity Classic on Tuesday! A special thank you to my co-panelists Karen Braun and Eric Snodgrass!   We have harvested nearly 25% of our soybean crop already on our family farm in Minas Gerais, Brazil. We have never harvested so many beans this early before. Yields appear to be in line with our APH so far (60+ bpa), but there is a long way to go. The forecast shows below average rainfall for large portions of March. This is both good and bad. It is good for our soybeans as a wet harvest for us usually has a negative impact on the germination quality, which is very important for us because our crop is sold as seed. On the other hand, some precipitation is required to help germinate the "safrinha" corn which is being planted now.     Brazil's soybean harvest has reached 55% overall this week, catching back up to the historical average and then some. The harvest started off in Mato Grosso which will already be near completion next week. Some places like RGDS, have barely even begun. South America overall soybean production is seen at 236 MMT, up roughly 15 MMT from last year. Despite continued weather issues in Southern Brazil and Argentina, we should still see record production coming from the Southern Hemisphere.     Tariff talk has put a swift end to our winter rally, seeing prices give back in eight trading sessions what took almost three months to obtain. While the pre-season ...

On the Grains On Tuesday, the middle of the country had blizzard warnings, winter storm warnings, and high wind warnings, while the South had tornado, thunderstorm, flood, and red flag warnings in place. There were many areas where the moisture was more than welcomed, but dark skies added to the ominous feelings stirred up by the market selloff. The situation was looking panicky as the Dow Jones was down around 800 points mid-morning. It was no doubt helpful that stocks trimmed their losses considerably starting at around 10:30 am, which allowed May corn futures to finish 9 cents off their low and soybeans 8 cents better than their low.

Out of Time Part 3 of many A Fox News princess claimed that president Trump was playing 4-dimentional chess while others were playing checkers. I do not know that I would take it that far but I get her point. There is the main thrust of the administration headed by Elon Musk and DOGE that is forging ahead attempting to get in front of what is a budget crisis. And then there are many subsidiary battles going on advancing his larger agenda. It is hard to tell sometimes which is the main attack and which is the diversion in the others. Much of it is intertwined. For example, Trumps trade, immigration and tax policies all run either parallel or are integrated into the budget emergency.   The US has a near $2 trillion shortfall between revenue and spending. Some of that was the result of the 2017 Trump tax cuts. Technically he is responsible for a share of the fiscal mess. I don’t think that anyone wants to let the tax cuts in place sunset as they are scheduled to do. I think doing so would mean immediate recession. They are now baked in. “The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated in 2018 that the 2017 law would cost $1.9 trillion over ten years, and recent estimates show that making the law’s temporary individual income and estate tax cuts permanent would cost another roughly $400 billion a year.” Yet, during the campaign, Trump promised yet another $300 bln annually in additional tax cuts. I do not ...