CommStock Reports

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/05/2026 What is Driving Beef Demand? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Throughout this impressive run in the cattle market, beef demand has remained remarkably strong despite record high prices. In fact, we have even seen demand grow and alongside record supply this has pushed prices higher yet. Anyone watching this unfold has wondered just how long the trend can continue. How long can we sustain these prices? Price fatigue has to kick in at some point, right? If not for the producer then surely for the consumer. That's the conversation we were having 6 months ago, and 6 months before that, yet here we are, with feeder cattle still over $340, fed cattle still over $230, and Choice boxes still moving at over $360/cwt. In 2025 alone, retail beef sales surpassed 6.2 billion pounds, valued at over $45 billion in sales despite record high prices and uncertainty in the marketplace. This was a 4.3% increase in overall volume and more than 12% increase in total sales compared to 2024. This trend is expected to continue with some analysts projecting a more than 2% growth in market size over the next five years. Though the USDA decreased 2026 US beef production forecasts slightly (less than 1%) for 2026 due to a slower projected fed cattle slaughter pace, per capita disappearance of beef for 2026 is now projected at 59.4 lbs compared to 59.2 lbs in 2025. The bottom ...

08/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains Trumping Chinese Demand On the Grains: Soybeans and corn extended their sharp price slides from the late-July highs overnight as rains are pushing across the western Corn Belt (primarily Iowa) this morning with multiple additional rainfall chances expected over the next two weeks. For soybeans, the timely rains during the key pod-fill stage are trumping the recent pickup in Chinese demand. August rains are difficult for traders to ignore.Wheat futures are trying to buck the trend amid further grain shipping disruptions in the Black Sea region, though it will take a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. wheat to turn that into a price-bullish situation. USDA announced another 132,000 MT of new-crop soybean sales to China on Tuesday. Additional daily sales are expected today. China is using the sharp break in prices to make goodwill purchases ahead of the planned meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping in Washington on Sept. 24. Since the July 24 peak in November soybean futures, USDA has announced daily new-crop soybean sales of 884,000 MT to China, with another 514,150 MT to unknown destinations (likely China). And there were daily sales of 500,000 MT to China and unknown in the days ahead of July 24. Crop Estimating Season Hitting Full Stride Private firms are releasing their corn and soybean yield and production forecasts ahead of USDA’s first survey-based estimates on Aug. 12, which will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. Wire services will release average estimates ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/04/2026 There Will Be a Test PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I am on vacation…you are not. I leaving you some homework to read on a subject that we will all have to become more familiar with…AI. In the realm of human development nothing comparable has ever served as the accelerant of the advancement of any species on earth, the galaxy or beyond for all we know, comparable to AI. Technology was already accelerating. AI will throw gas on the fire. Two generations ago, my wife’s grandmother, a teacher, said she drew a picture of a horseless carriage for her students. The first horseless carriages did not have odometers or good brakes. They had to figure out by experience what safety measures should be added. AI is in a similar state of development. We now hold a computer connected to the world via internet in the palm of our hands and now we are looking at human knowledge exploding exponentially on the basis of AI. It is only in its conception and the beginning of construction of what is envisioned. Data farms becoming the network for AI are being planted across the US. We have farm clients who have sold their land to be used as data centers for a windfall. A WSJ article tells of 96 families in Salem County PA collectively selling 1700 acres of their land for an average $330,000 acre. Another data ...

08/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Key Near-Term Boundaries Established On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are favoring the downside early this morning as they failed to sustain strength from early in the overnight session. Near-term trading boundaries have been set in wide ranges from the July 24 highs to the Aug. 3 lows. December corn futures are holding near the middle of their nearly 34-cent range, while November soybeans and December SRW wheat futures are in the lower end of their respective 81- and 78-cent ranges. That gives traders room to maneuver markets as they price in weather, crop conditions, geopolitics, Chinese demand and other factors. USDA on Monday confirmed daily soybean sales of 488,000 MT to China and 136,150 MT to unknown destinations for 2026-27 delivery. More daily sales should be coming this morning. But traders are expecting it, so price impact will be limited unless any additional sales are stronger than anticipated. Russia and Ukraine continue their attacks in the Black Sea. A drone attack overnight hit a Turkish-owned vessel and seriously injured three crew members near Russia's Novorossiysk port. But markets have grown numb to the constant headlines and the Black Sea shipping disruptions haven’t resulted in a notable increase in demand for U.S. wheat. Forecasts call for a return of hotter conditions across the Corn Belt from late this week into at least midmonth. But the outlook also features multiple rainfall chances, with near- to above-normal rains anticipated. Corn Conditions Sees Further Deterioration, Soybeans Unchanged USDA rated 61% of ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/03/2026 Personal Protohistory Introspection…Now Shared PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update How much do you have to work to accumulate wealth? A lot of people think that a 40-hour work week is all that a company should be able to require of anyone to be a full-time occupation and that is fine. My young son works a 4-day 10-hour shift at a company and then takes the opportunity when offered to work another 8-hour shift at time and a half. He still has two days off to do something else. He details boats and vehicles. No one is going to do more than maybe pay the bills working a 40-hour week and given affordability issues today, the bills will exceed most paychecks. I came home from college to farm in 1973. My dad told me that it was the shock of his life and had not expected it. He accepted it though and was a great partner from then on. The first 10 years or longer I learned what I didn't know I needed to learn. I got no regular paycheck but my wife did, teaching grade school. I had three career-shaping mentors in my life, all now deceased …my landlord Stan Schoelerman, my father-in-law who was also a farmer and my father. I chose to come home to farm over finishing college. Never found that to be a problem or hindrance. I have never stopped becoming educated. ...

08/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video New Month, Same Volatile Factors in Play On the Grains Grain and soy markets favored the downside overnight as traders monitored weather, geopolitical events and potential Chinese demand. The same volatile market factors that shaped price action through July are still in play as the calendar has flipped to August. Weather is the primary focal point for corn and soybeans and leans bearish, as rains swept across the Corn Belt from Friday through Sunday, providing a needed shot of moisture for many areas. But the driest locations in the northwestern Corn Belt, including northwestern Iowa, had disappointing results. This week’s forecast calls for additional rainfall chances and cooler temperatures. Geopolitics are a mixed bag. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s grain export capabilities in the Black Sea region. Both have warned of reduced exports while seeking alternative routes. Meanwhile, the sitaution in the Middle East is pivoting back to diplomacy, with President Trump saying the U.S. would engage in talks with Iran today. Chinese demand is cautiously optimisic. More daily sales of U.S. soybeans could surface, with China rumored to have purchased multiple cargoes for shipment out of the PNW last Friday. On a broader scale, the South China Morning Post reported that Sen. Steve Daines is expected to return to Beijing for another round of talks aimed at finalizing the agenda for Chinese President Xi Jinping’s planned Sept. 24 state visit to Washington. Both governments appear to want several announceable agreements, even if ...

Weather leanings shaped expectations for a softer market start. Just as it was raining in Chicago on Friday to help dampen bullishness in grains, traders will focus on more rain coming to break up the heat in the Eastern Corn Belt forecast. War risks were still the possible wildcard for turning prices back higher. The week should also feature follow-up on Chinese export demand and fresh news for biofuels. In the Headlines The end of the week/end of the month brought out position-squaring pressure against the grains, led by wheat futures, which had been the best performer of July. September Chicago wheat futures kept a gain of 50 cents for the month while the Kansas City contract was up 96 1/2. December corn finished July up 28 cents and November soybeans were up 43 3/4. Traders will keep a close eye on the stock market after last week's volatility surrounding nervousness over technology company earnings and the potential overleveraging of investors in the artificial intelligence sector. There was contagion from South Korea's stock market selling off sharply due to huge losses in names including Samsung Electronics, one of the highly-levered single-stock ETFs that retail investors were getting blown out of. The move weighed on U.S. listings like Nvidia, which accounts for roughly 7 percent of the value of the S&P 500 index. The semiconductor company AMD reports earnings on Tuesday this week. Flash sales for soybean exports were announced on Thursday and Friday following the futures going on discount, with China then talked about ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/31/2026 August Seasonal Trends to Know PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Last day of July. August will open up new stages of the growing season, being known as the make-or-break month for soybeans and the most critical window for grain fill in corn. The dog days of summer continue to stoke concerns over heat and humidity before late August can feature minor cold fronts that mesh with increasing hurricane activity. August weather dictates final yield and quality prospects for crops including spring wheat in the North and cotton in the South. Crop tours eventually kick off in August and the USDA puts boots on the ground to launch objective yield surveys for corn and soybeans. August is sometimes associated with thinner market volumes as summer vacations wrap up before kids are back to school. The month is marked by grain traders for having produced lows the last two years for corn and soybean futures. After grain prices defied their usual patterns of bearishness this July, be wary of expecting another round of August lows. Be aware of these seasonal price trends linked to the new month ahead: Carried forward from July is a seasonal window for selling Chicago wheat futures. Called out by Moore Research with a start date of July 20, the trade may look attractive for having just followed a rally that brought prices back up to $7 that day. With a winning track record ...

07/31/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Rains A Wet Blanket On Corn, Soybeans On the Grains: Grain and soy futures are under pressure this morning, aside from soymeal which is modestly firmer. After filling the July 20 gap yesterday, December corn futures are making for-the-move lows. November soybeans and the wheat markets are holding above their recent lows for now. A broad swath of rain is moving across the western Corn Belt and will push into the eastern Belt later this morning, providing timely moisture for developing corn and soybeans. However, amounts were light in the driest areas of the western Corn Belt and limited rainfall is expected in these areas through Monday. China’s Soybean Buys Continue New-crop soybean sales to China as of July 23 increased to 2.781 MMT – the most for the date since 2022-23. If you add in daily sales since July 23, China’s new-crop commitments are just over 3 MMT. That’s 12% of the 25 MMT the U.S. says China pledged to buy. There’s another 2.829 MMT of new-crop soybean sales on the books to unknown destinations, which is likely China. The combined 5.6 MMT would be 22.4% of the pledged 25 MMT volume. More Chinese purchases are likely on this price break, as it gives them an opportunity for goodwill buys. On the Cattle:  Cattle markets sharply extended this week’s corrective gains and futures are now signaling short-term lows on the daily charts, especially live cattle. Another strong close today would cement that stance. Fundamentally, cash cattle prices have climbed each ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/30/2026 The End of the World Order as We Knew It PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I am on vacation this week meeting our family in Brazil. After drinking Matthew and Carol's coffee, I am looking forward to seeing the trees it comes from in Minas Gerais. The Seibt family, Matthew's in-laws there, expanded their coffee production a few years ago and his wife Carol and Matthew began importing it into the US. I'm leaving you with this report which was derived from Ian Bremmer's TED Talk adapted into a structured article format. Ian is considered to be the worlds foremost geopoliticist taking nothing away from Peter Zeihan. The Three New World Orders: Who Really Runs the Planet? For decades, answering the question "Who runs the world?" was simple. If you grew up during the Cold War, you lived in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the global order shifted into a unipolar world, with the United States acting as the sole global superpower—exerting raw power and dominating global institutions. But over the last 15 years, the global structure has fractured. The United States grew weary of being the world's policeman, the architect of global trade, and the cheerleader for global values. At the same time, three major shifts occurred: Russia's Decline: Russia was never fully integrated into Western institutions, leaving a former great power angry and in ...

07/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Today’s Grain Market Focus: Geopolitics On the Grains: Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drones ​attacked a major grain ‌export terminal at Russia's Taman port on the Kerch ​Strait linking the ​Black Sea and the Sea ⁠of Azov, inflicting “significant ​damage.” Three of Russia's biggest Black Sea grain terminals, including ZTKT at Taman, had already restricted grain deliveries arriving by truck. As loadings and shipments from the Black and Azov seas slow, Russia is expected to lean harder on its Baltic ports, though they handle only a small fraction of Russian grain exports and the longer route is both time consuming and more costly. With a smaller Russian crop being harvested and July shipments already trimmed, the logistics tax on the world’s biggest wheat supplier is rising. Corn and soybeans, which faced heavy selling on pressure from an improved weather outlook on Wednesday, mildly rebounded on the coattails of wheat’s surge. Weather models continue to show widespread rains over a large area of the Corn Belt during the next week, including some of the driest areas. Weather models haven’t changed… market focus and leadership has. With several major volatile factors driving price action in the grain and soy markets, expect the rotating focus and leadership to continue – along with major price swings. There wasn’t talk of China buying soybeans on Wednesday sharp price break, but with November futures back below $12 it wouldn’t be surprising to see some additional Chinese goodwill purchases by state-owned firms. November futures ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/29/2026 August Weather Outlook Improving/Brazil Expansion Pausing PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Not surprisingly, oppressive heat over the weekend chipped away at crop condition ratings with some regions reaching triple digits temps. While extreme heat continues to linger in North Dakota, the worst appears to be behind us as temperatures fall back within normal ranges. We keep hearing that crops look better than expected but will need a rain soon. The forecast does show a strong chance of widespread showers this next week bringing relief of 1" or more in many areas. This rain won't be enough to get us to the finish line, but it will be an extremely important rain as time has run out. Figure 1: Rainfall Forecast Through August 2nd Stress Degree Days are quickly accumulating, surpassing the 140-point day threshold, generally considered to be detrimental to yield in many areas in the Western Corn Belt. Follow the red line in the image below. Most of Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska and large portions of South Dakota are well past the threshold. There are regions in South Central South Dakota with 245 accumulated Stress Degree Days already. Southwest Iowa has also surpassed the 140-day threshold as of Monday. Temperatures begin to fall back into their normal ranges this week and so we don't expect additions to the Stress Degree Days, at least not for the moment. Figure 2: Accumulated Stress Degree Days While nobody is disputing potential yield damage from ...

07/29/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wetter Forecast Pressures Beans; China Buying Opportunity? On the Grains After a firmer start, soybeans turned lower overnight and are posting double-digit losses early this morning. November soybeans have dropped below Tuesday’s lows and bears are now targeting the bottom of the July 20 gap at $12.04. Corn and wheat futures are drifting lower on spillover from soybeans. Near-term weather forecasts continue to call for above-normal temperatures to persist over at least the next two weeks, though oppressive heat isn’t expected. Traders’ greater weather focus is forecasts calling for multiple rainfall chances, including in the dry areas of the western and northern Corn Belt, during that timeframe to provide relief from recent crop stress. The European model continues to show more rainfall than the U.S. model, but even the American model signals relatively widespread rains through Aug. 5. China state stockpiler Sinograin will auction 503,694 MT of soybean reserves procurred from 2022 to 2025 to the domestic market on Friday. This is the first soybean auction of state reserves since Jan. 13. Key will be the volumem purchased and the average sales price. Regular weekly sales of around 500,000 MT are expected as Sinograin makes room for arrival of new-crop U.S. soybean purchases that will start to be shipped in September. Cash sources in Brazil report Brazilian soybean export prices are now on par with the U.S. Gulf and above PNW for October shipment. The last reminaining hurdle to making U.S. soybeans economically viable for Chinese commmercial ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/28/2026 No Good Exit from the Escalation PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Exchanged threats from combatants have gone unheeded in Trumps Middle East war. Trump vows that if Iran attacks any vessel in the region that the US will destroy a bridge, power plant or some other infrastructure target in Iran. Iran's response is that then they will do likewise in Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE or Qatar. The disruption of shipping traffic in the Persian Gulf is being extended to the Red Sea. That shuts off an alternate oil export route the Saudis were using via pipeline. Iran also has more missiles left than we do interceptors so US air forces are moving some assets to bases in Israel for dome protection. One could read that as "we are tactically retreating". That said, the airstrikes on Iran continue and some new assets are continually arriving in theater that will bolster US forces there. A military solution has not shown promise to date and Iran shows no interest in a political one to date. These threats are exchanged, then made good upon, damage occurs and the war continues. There were 4 more dignified transfers to Dover Air Base in Delaware. What is the next escalation? Trump has threatened to take Karg island where Iran loads oil. That oil has already been shut off by the blockade so really doesn't change the dynamic of the world getting oil. He has ...

07/28/2026 New Reco Day 3: Reward the soybean rally by setting a sales target of 10% of November 2027 soybeans at $12. We are already well advanced on 2026 sales. If you are behind, we advise catching up on those sales. While we believe there is still long-term upside potential, the market is perceived to be overbought and susceptible to eventual corrections. Call your broker for short-dated option ideas that may help add value to your sales. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Split Focus Leads to Quieter Overnight Trade On the Grains Corn futures are trying to cling to mild corrective gains after the sharp decline in crop condition ratings. Weakness in the soybean and wheat markets is limiting buyer interest. November soybeans entered the July 20 chart gap but haven’t fill it, leaving a target for bears at $12.04. Overnight price action signals corn crop deterioration has a little of traders’ attention, though forecasts calling for moderating though still above-normal temperatures and multiple rainfall chances are limiting buyer interest. Soybean traders see rains in the two-week outlook as the calendar gets set to flip to August, limiting buyer interest despite the decline in crop ratings and Chinese demand. Wheat traders are removing some risk premium as they wait to see if the Russia/Ukraine situation will defuse. Ultimately, it comes down to money flow as ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/27/2026 Too Hot Too Long PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update You have your full yield potential until you don't. We started out with it nationally this year which is not the case every year. Planting went great and conditions were favorable until post 4rth of July when the heat dome arrived. If I were looking only in my own backyard, we still likely have full yield potential. Given forecast temps, by the end of this week that may no longer be the case. Up until last week favorable crop condition still stood a chance of producing a record US yield. So much for a cool/wet El Nino summer. It was not drought so much as the heat that is the problem. We have enough subsoil moisture, that if temps had been average, we would have made the crop. Crops are drawing hard on that subsoil moisture where it exists. Rain now would be timely. Our farms are now at the 140 thresholds for cumulative SDDs but SD, ND, NE, MN and even IA are now taking damage getting cooked that will in all likelihood begin to pull the national yield down. Another week or so of hot temps will add a slew of additional SDDs to the total. Given temperature highs forecast, some corn production areas will pass 200 SDDs. That is not good for corn yields. How bad it gets will be determined by how ...

07/27/2026 Grains Exhibiting Newton’s Law New Reco Day 2: Reward the soybean rally by setting a sales target of 10% of November 2027 soybeans at $12. We are already well advanced on 2026 sales. If you are behind, we advise catching up on those sales. While we believe there is still long-term upside potential, the market is perceived to be overbought and susceptible to eventual corrections. Call your broker for short-dated option ideas that may help add value to your sales. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical issues. On the Grains Grain and soy markets are under heavy pressure to open the week. Most of the markets have erased a good portion of last week’s strong gains. Soyoil and SRW wheat are trading below their July 17 closes. Grain markets are proving what goes up must come down – and the only certainty in the current market environment is extreme volatility. Geopolitics: Middle East tensions have eased for now as the U.S. and Iran paused attacks for a third straight day. But Iran said there’s no change to the status of the Strait of Hormuz, meaning it’s likely to continue targeting commercial ships that don’t receive its permission before transiting. And the U.S. is maintaining its blockade of Iran’s ports. Meanwhile, there haven’t been any announcement from the Saudis ...

Grains were expected to develop a firmer tone on rising war risk premium, both involving Iran and Russia/Ukraine. Weather remained threatening but the present heat was balanced against a wetter forecast for the week ahead. In the Headlines Ukraine struck an Iranian ship in the Caspian Sea this weekend, linking to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky saying that Russia was providing satellite data to help Iran's attacks in the Middle East. Ukraine also continued to launch drones against power infrastructure on the Crimean Peninsula and Russia responded with strikes near Ukraine's capital of Kiev. The latest hostilities dampened the likelihood of the tacit agreement returning for Russia and Ukraine not to disrupt exports. Tariffs led the headlines at the end of the week as President Trump issued new levies on over 80 countries covering 99 percent of U.S. trade volume. The tariffs are structured under an alternative Section 301 authority. Two small businesses became the first to fight against the new order with a suit filed in the U.S. Court of International Trade. Only one flash sale was announced listing China as the buyer of U.S. soybeans last week, with an unknown destination attached with two more cargos of soybeans on Friday. Traders were starting to question the pace of Chinese soybean business against the previous commitment of 25 million metric tons, with doubters suggesting that purchases are behind in reflection of the 12 mmt already shipped to date. USDA on Friday afternoon announced a phased reopening of the border with Mexico, which will allow cattle ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/24/2026 A Busy End of the Week for Markets PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Mark Twain is cited for saying that "God created war so that Americans would learn geography." The notion fits in today's world, as lately there have been a lot of obscure places popping up in the news, particularly for their connections to the conflict with Iran and the war in Ukraine. Many of the names are hard to pronounce waterways, like the Bab el Mandeb Strait, where the Houthi rebels in Yemen are targeting Saudi oil tankers moving out of the Red Sea. Getting to know the different Islamist groups is a whole nother story, what with the Houthis and Hezbollah and Hamas. If nothing else, Iran's various proxy forces show how wide the conflict is spread out across the Middle East. Iran has been targeting U.S. assets in Iraq, Bahrain, Kuwait, and in Jordan, where three soldiers were killed last Friday at the Muwaffaq Salti Air Base. The U.S. has been retaliating with strikes on Iran's largest port in Bandar Abbas. The Bandar Abbas port is positioned on the northern shore of the Strait of Hormuz, which has been the most frequently referenced waterway since the initial attacks on Iran were carried out on February 28th. One more name for the weekend ahead, there has been much ado about Iran's Pickaxe Mountain, which President Trump referred to in saying, "we'll be ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 07/24/2026 Money Still Flowing Into Long Grains New Reco Day 1: Reward the soybean rally by setting a sales target of 10% of November 2027 soybeans at $12. We are already well advanced on 2026 sales. If you are behind, we advise catching up on those sales. While we believe there is still long-term upside potential, the market is perceived to be overbought and susceptible to eventual corrections. Call your broker for short-dated option ideas that may help add value to your sales. *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Morning Market Talk There will be no Morning Market Talk today, we will resume on Monday. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat strengthened overnight, with soybean and winter wheat markets scoring contract highs. Weather, geopolitical upheaval and supply-chain concerns continued to attract speculative money into the long side of markets. Prices have surged this week, so key today is whether funds continue to go all in on the long side or peel some money off ahead of the weekend. But until those supportive factors ease, upside potential remains open. The central U.S. is bracing for potentially the hottest temperatures of the summer this weekend into early next week. Forecasts signal the heat will break later next week into early August, but rainfall will be restricted over the next two weeks. The best chances for rain will come ...

It was a long time ago, 1980 actually, when a Chicago Ag economy cycle's analyst (Jake Bernstein) got me motivated to become a market analyst and eventually start this company.  He correctly forecast Ag's economic top in 1980 to an uncanny degree making me one of the few who was told what was coming even though there is only so much you can do to prepare for an Ag depression like that. Some define a recession as "your neighbor going broke" and that a depression is "when you go broke." I know they make it sound like the Ag economy is in a depression in the click-bait of you-tube videos and crop margins are tight but by definition we are not in a recession, forget a depression yet in NW IA. I should emphasis the word "yet". We have had good production in our region receiving USDA ACHs and are getting by. My neighbors are not going broke. That comes from someone who has lived through one. In an Ag Depression you can sell the stock of the Ag bank you borrowed money from and pay them back on the gains of shorting their stock as that bank failed. Ag banks still appear healthy. Given the average age of a rancher being 60 years old, they have been through a few cycles so are experienced.   Another forecast made in 1980 that I believe has held true enough is that years ending in 6 have typically not been good for cattle producers. ...