CommStock Reports

12/22/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitical Concerns Heighten On the Grains Grain and soy markets firmed overnight amid heightened tensions in the Black Sea region as Ukraine and Russia attacked each other’s infrastructure. Russia stepped up attacks at Ukraine’s Odesa ports in the Black Sea, including a shipping terminal belonging to oilseed firm Allseeds. Ukrainian drones damaged infrastructure and vessels at the Black Sea port of Taman, which handles products including grains, fertilizers and oil. Crude oil firmed around $1 and gold and silver surged to new highs as the U.S. boarded a third oil tanker near Venezuela in less than two weeks. Brazil Weather Stays Favorable, But Dryness Looms Scattered showers are expected this week across most of Brazil’s main growing regions. The 10-day forecast shows dryness building over central and east-central Brazil, while rains will continue in southern production regions. AgRural raised its Brazilian soybean production forecast by 1.9 MMT to a record 180.4 MMT, based on field data projections. The firm noted, “It is worth remembering that, despite the favorable weather conditions experienced by the 2025-26 crop throughout Brazil in December, most soybean crops still have uncertain productivity. Therefore, the size of the production still depends on the weather in January, February and, in some later areas, in the first half of March.” Updated Weekly Export Sales Schedule USDA will release export sales for the week ended Dec. 4 at 7:30 a.m. CT. Due to government offices being closed Dec. 24 and Dec. 26, USDA will release weekly export sales activity ...

Grains are called to open quietly as traders wait for export sales reports on Monday morning. In the Headlines The market continues its shift into holiday mode, with grains and livestock trading a short session to 12:05 central on Christmas Eve before full closures on the next two Thursdays. Equity futures, interest rates, energy, and metals will open up on the evenings of Christmas and New Year's. President Trump issued an executive order closing federal offices on December 24th and 26th, but those days are not permanent federal holidays, as that would require legislation by Congress. Mail will be delivered as normal and most banks will stay open. USDA did announce rescheduling for some reports, including export sales. Flash sales for soybean exports were announced on four out of five days last week. Private estimates suggest Chinese soybean purchases of around 8 million metric tons to compare with the 12 mmt target that everyone has been focused on. U.S. soybean prices held firmer than Brazilian export offers last week, at $425 per ton out of the Gulf and $420 from Brazil's Port of Paranagua. On Saturday, U.S. Coast Guard personnel seized another oil tanker off the Venezuelan coast. The Panamanian-flagged ship was not itself sanctioned like the first Iranian-linked ship was when it was seized earlier this month, but the latest seizure was carried out under the newly-announced blockade of Venezuelan oil. Crude oil futures were up 52 cents on Friday but were down 72 cents for the week, to $56.54. The New York Times ran ...

SPECIAL REPORT David Kruse Many farmers have bought into the narrative that the slump that crop farmers are experiencing is short term pain for long term gain. Ultimately that should be how it works out but the time spent in the slump is likely to last longer than many perceive that it will. Certain things have to happen before the Ag sector feels good again. We are in the valley and can only yet imagine what the promised land looks like. We have to keep moving forward until the ground we are standing on starts to rise in elevation again. Only then will we get to see the next view of a promised land. Changing metaphors…we are in a wagon train moving forward and the terrain is rough. Not every wagon is going to make it. Some will break down and others will just tire and quit; economists call this “industry or sector consolidation”. That is a nice way of saying that not everyone is going to get there. Many operations are going to be absorbed by others during the trip. Farms will continue to get larger as they always have. Decisions made previously will determine who will succeed but not everything is within our control. Not everything is fair. About all that I can assure you is that making it to the promised land is worth the trouble. The reward will be commensurate with the pain.   Not all industries will make it back up the mountain. One in dire straits is the ...

12/19/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bears Have Soybean Chart Gap in Crosshairs Reminder: The deadline for producers to make sure 2025 acreage reporting at FSA is accurate for the upcoming Farmer Bridge Assistance program payments is today at 5 p.m. ET. On the Grains Soybeans continued their price slide overnight after entering the late-October chart gap on the continuation chart on Thursday – the gap Eric has referenced multiple times in his morning video. Filling that gap is at $10.45 1/2 and is a likely target for bears ahead of the weekend with it now just pennies away. Corn futures modestly pulled back from gains the past two days during overnight trade. Corn’s biggest challenge remains slumping soybeans. Winter wheat markets also traded lower overnight, while spring wheat firmed. Soybeans and SRW wheat are sharply lower for the week, while HRW and HRS wheat are slightly lower. Corn is higher for the week. Demand Dramatically Slows for China’s Soybean Auction Sinograin sold only 179,702 MT of the 550,144 MT of 2022 and 2023 soybeans put up for auction – 32.7% – at an average price of 3,751 yuan (~$533) per ton. Both the sales rate and price were down sharply from the two previous auctions. Treasury Advances 45Z Clean Fuel Credit Rulemaking — But Only For 2025 The Treasury Department sent its proposed rule governing the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit to the Office of Management and Budget for review, marking a key procedural step but signaling a narrow initial scope. According to people ...

Part 2 of 2 I mentioned that, all combined, globally, nations have a mind-boggling $337 trln in debt. That means that what one country does impacts the others, particularly if that country is the US, holding over $38 trln, soon to be $39 trln, of it. 3.3 billion people live in countries that now spend more on interest on their debt than on health care and education. The US Treasury says that the Cayman Islands holds $400 bln in US securities but the Fed calculates this differently and has a much different number for the Caymans of $1.4 trillion which would exceed the amount held by Japan. The Cayman Islands are used by hedge funds who are huge holders of the US debt. I would consider hedge funds to be "hot money" that could bail on us. That amount of US debt held by hedge funds is a concerning risk to the Fed. Japan is the official largest holder of US Treasuries, according to the Treasury at $1.1 trillion.   A significant amount of these Japanese holdings is tied up in what they call a "carry trade". The Japanese Fed bought its way out of the Japan's 1990s meltdown with 0% interest rates. What that did is provide incentive to borrow money in yen and invest it in dollars in much higher US Treasury rates, clipping a coupon so to speak from the margin. Some calculate that Japan exported $3.4 trillion into foreign investments…US Treasuries, European Treasuries, equity markets and other emerging markets ...

12/18/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Do Soybeans Even Care About Chinese Purchases? Reco Day 3: Exit January soybean shorts at $10.63. That order was filled on Tuesday. Reminder: The deadline for producers to make sure 2025 acreage reporting at FSA is accurate for the upcoming Farmer Bridge Assistance program payments is Friday, Dec. 19 at 5 ET. On the Grains Corn futures built on Wednesday’s corrective gains during overnight trade. Soybeans and wheat are also modestly favoring the upside early this morning, though buyer interest is limited. Traders await export demand news, as USDA will update export sales activity for the week ended Nov. 27 at 7:30 a.m. CT. There could (should) also be some daily soybean sales to China. China has secured more than 7 MMT of U.S. soybeans after heavy buying during the past two weeks, people familiar with the situation told Bloomberg. Export sources have indicated that figure is in excess of 8 MMT. State-owned COFCO and Sinograin have been the buyers, while commercial firms have been absent from the market as U.S. soybeans aren’t economically viable compared to Brazilian supplies. State stockpiler Sinograin continues to auction state reserves to make room for U.S. soybean shipments. The Facts USDA showed 232,000 MT of soybean sales to China on Oct. 30 USDA showed outstanding soybean sales of 2.506 MMT as of Nov. 20. Daily soybean sales to China from Oct. 30-Nov. 20 totaled 1.816 MMT. Daily soybean sales to unknown from Oct. 30-Nov. 20 totaled 355,000 MT. Trump’s Remaining Fentanyl Tariffs On China ...

12/17/2025 Brazil Producing 3 X More Soybeans Than They Need PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I am looking for holes in Brazil’s weather forecast and am not having much success finding any.  The Northern tier of Brazil will see 2” to 6” in most areas.  RGDS and Argentina take a little break from precipitation this week, but we see abundant rainfall coming right back by Christmas.  Additionally, the long-term rainfall anomaly shows above average precipitation across Brazil through the end of January.  A little while ago, I would have said Brazil would struggle to average 54 bpa on 121 million acres.  The solid weather forecast might make me out to be a liar.  Usually, you find at least some weather issue in such a large geographical area, especially with the distinct La Niña climate pattern.  But any major drought risk from La Niña seems to have faded away. Figure 1: Two-week Rainfall Forecast I spoke with a seed dealer in Mato Grosso who said they are already beginning the first of their two soybean harvests there.  I asked him to explain what he meant by two harvests.  He said there are those farmers that like to plant early, especially those that plant second crop cotton following soybeans.  Those shorter season soybean varieties are planted in the second half of September which will then be harvested by Christmas.  It didn’t rain much the first half of October, and so for those producers that didn’t plant early, they waited ...

12/17/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Downside Objectives Met For Soybeans… What’s Next? Reco Day 2: Exit January soybean shorts at $10.63. That order was filled on Tuesday. Reminder: The deadline for producers to make sure 2025 acreage reporting at FSA is accurate for the upcoming Farmer Bridge Assistance program payments is Friday, Dec. 19 at 5 ET. On the Grains Soybean futures paused overnight after filling the late-October chart gap and virtually completing the downside projection ($10.60 to $10.50) of the head-and-shoulders formation. Technically, soybeans have “done their job,” though there’s little confidence the market is done going down. Corn and SRW wheat futures modestly bounced overnight, while HRS wheat slightly favored the upside and HRW wheat struggled to find buyers. EPA Won’t Finalize 2026 Biofuels Mandates by Year-End; 45Z Guidance Awaited EPA currently expects to issue a final rule setting 2026 and 2027 Renewable Fuel Standard RVOs during the first quarter of 2026, according to a notice filed with the U.S Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit on Dec. 15. This delays key policy decisions on RINs and reallocating small refinery exemptions. Also of note, while more info on 45Z is expected for tax year 2025 by the end of the year, as I previously noted, IRS/Treasury is not expected to come out with regulations beyond 2025 until the first half of next year. However, University of Illinois Ag Economist Scott Irwin says even before IRS issues regulations, several things are not discretionary: The credit formula exists in statute and ethanol’s approximate carbon ...

I have always irregularly included military geopolitical commentary in the threads of the CommStock Report over the years as it interests me and it influences commodity markets. Our greatest example was having 30-year veteran Navy Seal Jason Gardner speak at our inaugural Family Farm Masterclass. That was just prior to Putin's invasion of Ukraine. While the rest of the world was wondering what Putin would do, Jason told us that his contacts in Poland said that Putin would invade. I shared that with subscribers and we recommended buying wheat call options. That trade turned out to be the largest option profit in our trade history.   Afghanistan Medal of Honor winner Clint Romesha once spoke to CommStock clients and subscribers at our Clay County Fair gathering. I got the honor of taking him back to the airport and had a wonderful conversation on the drive. He was not complimentary of our political leadership. When we withdrew from Afghanistan, I called him for his perspective and it was the same. I shared the remorse for and frustration of the fiasco with him.   Ward Carroll is a retired Navy Carrier Pilot, call sign is Mooch, who knows everyone and everything about all aspects of the military as well as the military industrial complex, technology, and strategy. Ward Carroll is the editor of Military.com. During his 20-year Navy career he served in four different F-14 squadrons based at NAS Oceana and was the operations officer for Carrier Air Wing One. He covers whatever is going on in the Pentagon and ...

12/16/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Beans Seeking Bullish Catalyst Reco Day 1: Exit January soybean shorts at $10.63. Reminder: The deadline for producers to make sure 2025 acreage reporting at FSA is accurate for the upcoming Farmer Bridge Assistance program payments is Friday, Dec. 19 at 5 ET. On the Grains Soybeans took a breather overnight from the sharp selloff, as soymeal provided some support. But soy oil remains under pressure, which limits the upside for soybeans. Corn modestly favored the downside, while winter wheat markets continued their price slides. Speculative money continues to flow out of the soybean market. Funds built an aggressive long position during the government shutdown, which resulted in a near-record net long on Nov. 18 and have been actively liquidating longs since. A low in soybeans won’t come until funds decide to actively buy them again. While China continues to buy U.S. soybeans, funds front-run that and now need a new catalyst to turn them into buyers again. Given mostly favorable weather in Brazil and a record crop, a bullish catalyst is lacking. China Auctions More State-Owned Soybean Reserves China state stockpiler Sinograin reportedly sold 323,000 MT of imported soybean reserves out of the 513,900 MT put up for auction. The 62.9% sales rate is down from the prior 77.5% rate on a similar volume put up for auction but still strong. Sinograin continues to rotate state-owned reserves to make room for shipments of U.S. soybeans. Soybean Crush Remains Record-Strong The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) reported its members crushed 216 ...

The story of my frustration began in late 2019 when my aunt and I bought 160 acres of farmland that adjoined our family property. The farm we purchased had been sold to settle an estate and we were glad to get the opportunity to buy it. The farm needed fertility but also had a major issue with drainage. The farm took water from other farms and the waterway was unimproved. The draws would cut during heavy rains and no one likes erosion.   We decided to reconstruct the draw to better handle excess water and control erosion. I was aware that there were government conservation programs which would help engineer such projects and pay part of the cost of construction in order to encourage conservation practices. It would provide a professionally engineered construction plan and pay 50% of the cost of the dirt work and new tile put in along the draw. I contacted our local NRCS office and they went to work on the project. One day we met with 4 of them at the farm and they gave me the initial draft of their plan. It was very expensive.   Then came covid. Communication ended, as for a period of time, we all had other things to concern us.   A period of time elapsed after which I again called the NRCS office to see if we could start advancing things, picking up from where we had started. Covid had disrupted their operations but communications became difficult and frankly they dropped the ball and ...

12/15/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bears Have Momentum; Bulls Looking for Stability On the Grains Soybeans gapped lower to start the overnight session but failed to find sustained selling and came off their lows. Corn held near unchanged. Both markets started the week rather quietly after poor finishes last Friday. Wheat futures extended their losses during the overnight session. Market focus remains largely on Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans and Brazil’s crop situation, with some attention on the ongoing talks for a potential end to the Russia/Ukraine war. Brazil Weather Focus Could Shift to Potential Harvest Brazilian soybean basis for the second half of this month and January jumped last week, suggesting supplies will be tight over the next 45 days. Widespread rains fell across nearly all of Brazil’s major production areas last week. Conditions remain mostly favorable, though some are starting to talk about potential harvest delays if the heavier rains persist. More rains are in the forecast for Mato Grosso and Goias over the next 10 days to two weeks, while Parana, Sao Paulo, western Mato Grosso do Sul and parts of Minas Gerais will be dry. Any delays for Brazilian soybean harvest would also push back planting of safrinha corn. More Backdated Export Sales USDA will release export sales for the week ended Nov. 20 as it continues to play catchup from sales data backlogged by the government shutdown. Of particular interest will be corn export sales and soybean sales to China. NOPA Soybean Crush Analysts expect the National Oilseed Processors Association to ...

Grains are called steady to slightly softer on a lack of fresh input that would ease the negative tone left from last week. In the Headlines There was movement on peace deal between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. Ukraine's President Zelensky signaled being willing to give up joining NATO as part of an agreement that would still maintain security guarantees from the U.S. and Europe. Zelensky is in Berlin to meet with Trump administration officials. Russian drone attacks were being carried out over the weekend, including one allegedly launched against a Turkish ship hauling sunflower oil. Mass shootings at Brown University in Rhode Island and at Bondi Beach in Australia were dominating headlines after news from Saturday that three U.S. citizens were killed in an ISIS-linked terrorist attack in Syria, including two members of the Iowa National Guard. President Trump vowed "serious retaliation" for the attack. Chinese trade activity remains the primary point of fundamental guidance for the grains. Flash sales of soybeans to China were announced on four out of five days last week, but traders were focused on the negatives of not seeing a material impact on cash bids and having uncertainty about the timeframe for purchases. China trade relations took a step back last week after Mexico's government approved new tariffs against China in a move that had been encouraged by the U.S. The relative lack of fresh fundamental input puts more of the attention on year-end positioning influences and technical factors. December corn futures expired on Friday at $4.31 1/2 ...

Anybody around the grain market has now had to have heard about the soybean chart gap that is tugging futures back down toward it. The gap was opened on the Monday after the 'framework' for a U.S.-China trade deal was reached. Filling the gap for January soybean futures would take prices down to $10.63, but there would also still be another continuous chart gap open to $10.45 1/2 that was left from the now-expired November contract.   A gap is a spot where trading has skipped over a certain range of prices from one trading session or other time interval to the next. An up-gap can be opened when the next day's price low stays above the previous day's high and a down-gap is established when the next high holds short of the previous low. Unique types of gaps include breakaway gaps, runaway gaps, and gaps of exhaustion. Gaps can turn into psychologically-important points of support or resistance and they can remain open indefinitely.   The soybean gap fits with the characteristics of a runaway gap, which often occurs in continuation of a price trend and as a result of new fundamental input, like soybeans had with news of a China trade deal. The bullish nature of the soybean gap was confirmed by a surge of trading volume that accompanied the price jump; however, it was questioned at the time whether a gap of exhaustion was developing because open interest was falling amid the higher volume, which can happen at the end of a ...

12/12/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Has Global Soybean Market by The Tail On the Grains Soybeans led declines in the grain and soy markets overnight and are working on sharp losses for the week. A bear flag formation has formed on the daily chart that makes this week’s low of $10.81 1/2 in January futures key support. Violation of that level would confirm the bearish formation and project the contract to the $10.30 area. Corn futures are currently near unchanged for the week, while winter wheat markets are lower and spring wheat is holding onto weekly gains. USDA confirmed another 264,000 MT of soybean sales to China yesterday via a daily announcement. Export sales data for the week ended Nov. 13 showed a 100,000-MT cancellation by China. To date, USDA has confirmed just over 3 MMT of soybean sales to China for 2025-26. There was talk of additional soybean purchases by China on Thursday, so there could be more confirmations this morning. Based on overnight price action… some confirmations are needed. China’s soybean purchases have been steady, they’ve also been tempered and not enough to excite traders. While traders are concerned about the pace of China’s soybean buys, Brazilian farmers are also closely monitoring the situation. Their production continues to expand and is forecast to reach a record 177.1 million metric tons (6.5 billion bushels) this growing season. Though down a modest 100,000 MT from the prior forecast, that would still be up 3.3% from last year. China is Brazil’s (and ...

With great fanfare, president Trump, along with USDA Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins nearby, announced the long-awaited trade aid named the “Farmer Bridge Assistance Program.” It is $12 bln in financial assistance to the Ag sector, $11 bln in subsidies to crop farmers. “Every” crop that farmers grew in 2026 was unprofitable as crop farmers endured a margin squeeze from both high costs and poor prices. The $12 bln was purportedly funded from the revenue stream that tariffs created. It was tariffs that were also the primary reason behind high costs and poor prices so this program completes a “trade loss tariff funded loop”. Tariffs on imported fertilizer increase US farm costs. Tariffs damaged commodity prices as countries that they were levied on, particularly China, responded by both raising tariffs of their own or restricting their purchases of US farm commodities. China stopped buying US cotton, corn, sorghum, soybeans and pork and other commodities, shifting their demand to Brazil which expanded its production of these commodities accordingly. This boosted global production of them adding to supply and the larger supply weighed on prices. The impact on specific commodity markets was uneven. Mexico stepped up in the case of corn to become our No.1 corn export buyer while soybean exports suffered and the cotton industry has all but imploded. The financial plight of US soybean farmers quickly became the click -bait for YouTube videos letting the public know that trade policies had severely damaged the farm economy. Bankruptcies rose and bankers forewarned ...

12/11/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Attention On China Bean Buys as State Auctions Begin On the Grains Corn, soybean, and wheat futures traded lower at the start of the overnight trade but have caught a bid and are on their session highs this morning. China sold 397,000 MT (77.5%) of the 512,500 MT put up for auction – the first state-owned soybeans to be sold onto the domestic market in three months – at an average price of 3,935.3 yuan ($557.06) per metric ton. The sales are seen as a means of rotating state reserves to make room for purchases of U.S. soybeans by state-owned entities. Given poor margins and hefty soybean supplies held by crushers, demand was expected to be low. But as I mentioned previously, there’s talk Beijing is slowing the certification process for imported soybeans, causing delays before ships are unloaded, creating a greater “need” for the auctioned soybeans. Chinese soybean auctions are expected to continue in what is a virtual shell game with soybean stocks. There continues to be talk of more Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, so markets are watching for confirmation from USDA this morning. More Backdated Export Sales USDA will release export sales for the week ended Nov. 13 as it continues to play catchup from sales data backlogged by the government shutdown. Of particular interest will be corn export sales, especially after USDA hiked its 2025-26 projection by 125 million bu. to a record 3.2 billion bushels. Fed Cuts Rates, But Fractured Vote May Signal an End ...

I experienced a near 70-degree change in temperature this weekend, going from Iowa to Brazil. I suppose it was a good time to leave as the weekly temperature forecast was consistently below freezing. Brazil is in the prime of its soybean growing season and temperatures are below average for this time of year. By "below average", I mean low 80's versus upper 80's. I still had to turn the AC on.   If we had a "Chart of the Week" it would be the one below showing 1.5" to 6"of rainfall covering every major production region in Brazil this week. Usually, you could find at least some dry spot. But not this week. Everybody is getting a nice soaking rain. Not much changes the following week either as ample rainfall is widespread until Christmas. Only portions of RGDS go without rainfall next week, however, considering they will see the soil moisture profile improve, that should provide them with a buffer. So much for that La Niña bringing dryness to Southern Brazil. There is still time, but the La Niña is seen fading coming into the New Year. We spoke with several producers in Mato Grosso last week who all confirmed that while the rainy season got a slow start, they are now receiving their typical deluges of rain showers for the month of December. If we get to January and the weather outlook remains positive, we are going to have to begin considering raising Brazil's crop outlook, rather than lowering it.   The market ...

12/10/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Corn vs Beans Tug-Of-War On the Grains Corn futures pivoted around unchanged overnight, while soybeans extended their recent sharp losses. Winter wheat markets traded lower, while spring wheat was mixed.USDA delivered bullish news for corn on Tuesday as it raised the 2025-26 export forecast by 125 million bu. to a record 3.2 billion bushels. That’s a major change, especially for December. While exports were record-strong throughout the first quarter of the marketing year, 3.2 billion bu. is a lofty target. USDA cut projected global corn carryover more than anticipated due to the bigger-than-expected U.S. reduction. Global corn stocks are now forecast to decline 14.2 MMT from 2024-25. Despite neutral data for soybeans (unchanged U.S. ending stocks instead of an expected increase) and virtually no change to global carryover, soybeans continued to descent on the charts. Corn’s biggest challenge near-term is the technical breakdown and liquidation pressure in the soybean market. I doubt corn is strong enough to withstand a persistent selloff in soybeans. USDA made no changes to the U.S. wheat balance sheet (a slight decrease in ending stocks was expected) and raised world wheat ending stocks more than expected and they are now expected to climb nearly 15 MMT from last year. The world is awash with wheat. The Goal Posts Keep Moving U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told lawmakers that China’s commitment to purchase 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans applies to the growing season rather than the calendar year, a distinction that differs from how the ...

12/09/2025 What I am Thinking About at 2 a.m. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 After a period of prolonged growth and stability, complacency sets into economic expectations that there will not be another economic recession. That seems irrational to me but fits current psychology. OMB doesn't forecast a recession in their 10-year budget for the economy despite the odds growing daily that one is becoming imminent. Many states, including Iowa, are considered by economists to be in recession. That opinion is held by 32% of Iowa bankers in the October Creighton Rural Mainstreet survey. The Rural Mainstream Index (RMI) was 34.6, with 50 being neutral, which means the 10- state region is in recession. Deere sees its sales off 15-20% with per unit tractor sales forecast to be at their lowest level in 17 years in 2026. Conditions are now ripe for a US and even global recession, but timing is still pending. The stock market is the last light burning brightly. Treasury Secretary Bessent thinks AI and productivity gains will keep it going. In my view this likelihood of an eventual recession should be managed by preparation and I see none. Neither consumers nor the government has paid down debt. Bessent wants taxpayers to save the $2000 Trump promised to give them so as not to fuel inflation. They have that spent before they get it. Our debt is $38 trillion and without some major change in trajectory is going to ...

    On the Grains   Grain and soy markets were quiet overnight ahead of USDA's December WASDE Report at 11 a.m. CT. Corn and wheat futures firmed, while soybeans modestly extended their recent sharp losses.   There will be no U.S. corn and soybean production forecasts this month, putting focus solely on the demand side of the 2025-26 domestic balance sheets. With corn export sales and ethanol use starting the marketing year on record paces, analysts expect USDA to cut projected ending stocks. Given the sluggish start to soybean exports, which is offsetting record crush, USDA is expected to raise ending stocks. Projected wheat carryover is expected to decline after last month's bigger-than-anticipated increase. USDA will also update global ending stocks, though those figures will take a back seat to the U.S. figures.   This morning's reports should be just a formality of USDA fine tuning its balance sheets, which would keep focus on Chinese soybean demand, South American weather, trade happenings and macroeconomics, as traders prepare for end-of-year positioning. Perhaps the most enlightening aspect will be any additional comments on Chinese soybean demand – if there are any. Traders will have to wait another month for what are historically the real market-moving reports in January.         Trump Administration Unveils $12 Billion Farm Aid 'Bridge' Package   Secretary Brooke Rollins said USDA will move $11 billion out the door as direct "bridge payments" to producers via the Farmer Bridge Assistance (FBA) program, with another $1 billion held in reserve to cover specialty crops and sectors still being evaluated.   Payment timing (key dates ...

Winter is starting off like a lion this year with a heavy snow storm followed by bitter cold temps followed by more snow and yet more cold. After a number of relatively mild winters this is different. This snow may be around until next spring. Our lake froze early. Ice fishermen are getting started. Our growing season dried out late but most crops got all of the moisture they needed here. 2025 crops were planted early so had a full growing season which meant that they had the time needed to fully mature which in turn means that grain quality will be high. That contributed to yields. Most still expect USDA to trim corn/soybean yields in their January report but not by much. Winter is a good time to have a drought and according to the soil moisture map, subsoil moisture levels were generally depleted, leaving us needing a recharge. Snow may or may not contribute to soil moisture recharge depending on how and when it melts.   Dr. Elynn Taylors 89-year cycle drought forecast targeting 2025 is not out of my mind. The set-up was not right for drought last year and we discounted the prospect early. I have not yet discounted the prospect for the drought next season. 2026 would be only a year off but… the 90-day SOI peaked at 9.6 November 23 and has since abruptly collapsed, ending this La Nina. The corresponding 1936 winter was severe as a precursor to that drought correlating to this cycle. If ...

12/08/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Break Down On the Grains Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight after violating the neckline of the head-and-shoulders formation on the daily charts on Friday. That projects January futures to the $10.50 area. The contract traded below $11 for the first time since Oct. 30 overnight. There’s a chart gap from $10.70 1/4 to $10.63 that bears will try to fill. Corn and wheat mostly ignored the pressure on soybeans overnight. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Sunday that China is complying with the trade commitments made in recent bilateral agreements, emphasizing that the terms are “quite specific” and closely monitored by Washington. He said the U.S. is able to verify China’s actions “with some ease,” adding that “so far, we’re seeing that they’re in compliance.” Greer noted China is roughly one-third of the way through its pledged soybean purchases for the current growing season. As of Friday, USDA had confirmed 2.713 MMT of soybean sales to China for 2025-26. China’s Nov. Soybean Imports Highest Since 2021; 2025 Exports Top $1 Tril. China imported 8.11 MMT of soybeans in November, up 13.4% from year-ago and the highest total for the month since 2021. In the first 11 months of this year, China imported 103.79 MMT of soybeans, up 6.9% from the same period last year. The preliminary data doesn’t include country of origin for imports, though no U.S. soybeans were included in the tally for November. Overall, China’s export jumped 5.9% in November to an 11-month high of ...

Corn and soybeans are called to edge weaker after a poor finish on Friday and with uneasiness about President Trump's battle against high food prices. Traders will continue watching for confirmation of Chinese export purchases and for progress toward putting signatures on an official trade agreement. Tuesday is crop report day and Wednesday is the central bank meeting. In the Headlines On Saturday, President Trump issued an executive order "Addressing Security Risks from Price-fixing and Anti-competitive Behavior in the Food Supply Chain." The move aims to lower food costs by investigating "sectors including meat processing, seed, fertilizer, and farm equipment." Friday featured a flash sale for soybean exports sold to China, the first of the week after traders had expected to see quicker confirmation of the business that was rumored to have taken place over Thanksgiving. A generous estimate of activity since the trade deal announcement would cover about one-third of the 12 million metric tons of soybean exports that were previously promised for "this season," although it was clarified last week by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent that his reference was to the end of the meteorological winter season in February. Chinese demand disappointment pulled January soybean futures lower for a loss of 32 1/2 cents last week. There was much ado about the continuation of a bearish head-and-shoulders pattern. Prices closed below the neckline but stopped at the lower Bollinger Band and held above important psychological support at $11. Points of attention below the market include a continuation chart gap at $11.02 1/2 ...

Soybean futures have trended weaker since the start of December following a rally of more than $1 over the previous two months. Bullish sentiment was tested by a string of days that produced no new reports of soybean exports sold to China. Finally, a flash sale popped up on Friday for soybeans to China, but selling pressure seemed to suggest the business was too little, too late. The soybean board fell right back into a test of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that coincides with important psychological support at $11-even. The reaction fit with a market that has bought the rumor and now sold the fact of disappointment with China, although verification of the technical breakdown waits for Sunday and Monday to see if bears seize the opportunity.   Farmers were observed to be more aggressive sellers of soybeans in November, many likely with the motivation of rewarding the rally while knowing that crop sales were a hedge against Chinese demand being a letdown. Some may now flip from being skeptical about Chinese trade follow-through to being bullish about that business picking up from here. If Chinese demand materializes in a bigger way, farmers should start to see firmer local basis and firmer futures spreads. Explanations for the market not yet displaying the effects of rumored purchases have been that Chinese importers were already holding long futures in anticipation of a trade deal and that new deals are now being hedged against the basis component of the purchases, with more futures needing to ...