CommStock Reports

On the Grains Good morning, breaking news out of Russia, they have staved off 45 total drone attacks with 11 of them being on the capital city. While I am a bit early this morning 3:20 a.m. and Reuter just released the story 30 minutes ago, if there ever was a reason to “risk on” crude oil and wheat, here we go and as of now those markets have only slightly reacted. I would expect more as the east coast traders get to work. While drone attacks are nothing new, attacks on the Moscow are somewhat rare. As of now, the shorts in corn and beans feel bulletproof. However, they have been short for a long time and the longer they are on one side of the boat the more there is an increased risk of a Black Swan taking them out. Anybody out there that sees a large flock of birds heading towards Chicago feel free to reach out to me.

Trade may soon not be as globalized as it once was but the world financial system still is. The US increased interest rates more than other countries which incentivized an inflow of foreign capital to take advantage of our higher returns that firmed the US dollar. As US interest rates begin to decline, the cost of financing the US debt should incrementally be reduced as well. The need for less foreign capital inflow should allow the value of the dollar to ease accordingly. The dollar has been recently showing some anticipatory weakness of the coming interest rate cut next month by the Fed. China has been pulling its money out of US Treasuries to fund its own problems so this capital does have to be replaced. The use of the US dollar as the predominant trade currency and the fluctuation of the value of the dollar being impacted by fiscal issues are two different things. We do not think that the use of the dollar as the world trade currency is at this point seriously threatened. However, diversification of capital investment into the gold or cyber currency are underlying trends. (I will discuss the fiscal impact in a subsequent report)   The dollar has been strong in relative terms but nowhere near levels of the 1980s that contributed to conditions causing our Ag depression. DJT has advocated for a weaker dollar in order for US manufacturers to become more competitive in export markets. His support for digital currencies, if actually real, could ...

On the Grains Here we go, day 2 of the Profarmer Tour. Day one results for Ohio, estimate of 183.29 bpa basically unchanged from last year’s tour numbers. South Dakota South Dakota's numbers came in as followed; 183.29 this year vs 183.94 last year and 181.06 vs the 3 year average. I am not going to spend a lot of time on the soybeans only noting that the pod count was about on par with last year. As we all know there is a lot of time to add or subtract bushels especially on soybeans, weather dependent. Yesterday’s USDA crop conditions ratings came in as expected unchanged on corn and soybeans. It’s getting pretty late in the year to expect the market to react to anything on crop conditions unless we see an early frost in the northern part of the Corn Belt.

While the two presidential candidates’ debate who is responsible for inflation, the US Ag economy is now in recession because of deflation. The decline in many commodity prices has accelerated and has yet to show signs of a climax to losses. Corn, cotton and soybean prices are all well below the cost of production by substantial negative margins. In the case of soybeans, it is fortuitous that we have a crop insurance quarantined price of 11.66 bushel. As it stands today it would appear that the size of the revenue indemnity for insured soybeans will set an all-time record this fall. It is possible that producers will still receive a crop insurance indemnity because of low prices despite having good yields. The first thing that the market has to do in order to bottom is stop going down. We have yet to see definitive signs of a selling exhaustion. That could come in the form of a high-volume key reversal where bulls capitulate and bears cover shorts. Another signal of exhaustion on charts could be downside chart gaps where selling is so intense that price action leaves holes on charts to be later filled. The bad news is that the chart look is that we are in the 3rd wave decline of the bear market. The first rally from an attempt at bottoming typically doesn’t hold.   Fourth and 5th waves of differing degrees are part of a bottoming process in an Elliot Wave structure. Monday’s action appears to be a small ...

On the Grains Good morning ladies and gentlemen, by the time this hits the inbox, we will have Profarmer scouts turning and burning. What they find will be of some interest to the market. However, two things stick out on the Profarmer tour, the first is that they will be driving in the garden areas this year and the second will be that 9 of the last 12 years they have underestimated the USDA final yield. The last two years they have underestimated the final yield by 5.3 bpa on corn. While make no mistake, I do not want that job, I walked enough corn fields when I was in high school and I’m more than willing to admit that it would be a difficult job to estimating with such a lengthy fill period remaining. In a roundabout way, if the tour comes in at 180 bpa the trade will look at that as confirmation of a record national yield, maybe even as high as 184 bpa, and set the tone into fall.  With most of the poor corn this year north of I90 and west of I35 it will probably take until the January crop report before we can expect any yield revisions lower, even the January report might be a stretch and we will be back to playing the adjust the stocks number into 2025.

Grains are called steady to slightly higher on a technical rebound attempt. Stock futures are expected to start on solid footing while commodity traders look out for any big moves coming from oil and/or the dollar. In the Headlines December corn futures lost 2 1/2 cents last week. November beans were down 45 1/2 over the last five sessions. December Chicago wheat futures dropped 13 1/4 cents. Dec KC wheat futures were down 15 1/2 cents. August live cattle closed the week down $1.45 while August feeders were down $3.72. October lean hogs were up $1.10 for the week. The Pro Farmer Crop Tour takes place this week, kicking off in both South Dakota and Ohio with participants moving in toward a final meet-up in Minnesota. National yield predictions will be expected on Friday. Last year's results ended up at 172 bushels per acre for corn (177.3 final USDA) and 49.7 bpa for soybeans (50.6 USDA). Several other private sources will also be expected to refresh their yield views over the next two weeks. All new yield forecasts will be compared to USDA August estimates calling for corn at 183.1 bpa and soybeans at 53.2. The central bank meets for its annual conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will give a speech on Friday. Traders are all but certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates after their next policy meeting on September 18, but market-implied odds are bouncing back and forth between betting on whether the rate ...

Friday arrived to test whether U.S. stocks would hold on to their best performing week of the year. The rally follows the sharp plunge for stock prices at the start of the month, which had been felt clearly in the grains and livestock. After the major equity indexes recovered most of their recent losses, grain futures gave up what had been a brief source of support from capital rotation and spread unwinding with the weaker outside markets. Cattle futures have rebounded to retrace some of the large selloff that occurred over the first three days of August, but concern over the health of the economy remains heightened.   This latest mini financial market panic was wide-reaching in its influences for the agricultural commodities. Japan faced the worst stock market fallout as monetary policy action there was a partial trigger for the episode. Other of our largest ag trade partners were also affected, notably in their currencies. Exchange rates adjusted considerably for U.S. export customers including China and Mexico, as well as for competitors such as Brazil and Argentina. While the stock markets mostly made a quick recovery, there may have been a lasting shift for currencies and the global terms of trade for commodities.   The last few weeks of market turmoil have particularly pushed the Japanese economy into the limelight because of how unwinding for the yen 'carry trade' resulted in spikes of volatility for stocks, bonds, and currencies. With Japanese interest rates having been near zero or effectively negative for the past ...

On the Grains Corn and soybeans are weaker in overnight trade thus far, with wheat mixed. Yesterday's weekly export sales for old crop corn were disappointing but new crop sales beat the top end of estimates and YTD sales are up 38% vs. USDA's forecast for 34% gain. In soybeans, old crop sales were mid-range but new crop sales beat the top end of expectations and YTD sales are down, but still short of the decline USDA is forecasting. Wheat sales were at the top end of expectations and YTD sales are up 32% vs. USDA forecasting only at 17% rise. Why USDA didn't raise its wheat exports in Monday's WASDE is baffling.  

Capitalism can be brutal.  One study found that of all the companies started in 1998, only 31% of them remained just 7 years later.  It is likely much less than that today.  Another report showed that over half of Fortune 500 companies disappeared in the last 20 years. Another comparison seemed to be appropriate considering the ongoing Paris Olympics.  You might remember Carl Lewis, who dominated sprinting events in the 1984 LA Olympics.  Based on his times, if he were to run today in the Olympics, he would have gotten dead last.   For me these examples highlight the need to forever be learning, improving and evolving.  While we can lament the challenges of today's market downturn, it also can force us to improve rather than rest on our laurels.  Farming has been good the last several years but now it is our turn to go through another bottom cycle.  The challenging times will either force some producers out of the business while forcing others to adapt.   The ag industry in general is better prepared for this cycle.  Land values are the bedrock upon which many solid farm operations are built, and they have proven extremely resilient.  Ag lenders did not allow farmers to overextend themselves despite attractive commodity prices.  This will allow them to weather the storm.  Nevertheless, when bottom cycles like these happen, the consolidation tends to speed up.  Farm consolidations are not anything new.  They have been happening since the USDA began recording them over 100 years ago.  But that ...

Post-August USDA Report Hedge Recco Updates Day 2:We advised cancelling current orders at pending price targets and have reset objectives for future sales as follow: Corn: We currently have 10% of 2024 production hedged at 490 in December futures and 85% revenue insurance coverage at 466. Our intention is to deliver on forward sales and bin the balance of the crop. If the pre-report low of 390 can hold then it sets retracement rally targets of 430 and 443. Major resistance in December corn would be expected at 455. Buying 400 strike October corn calls for a dime could be added to lock up the crop insurance indemnity. Basis will continue to vary widely regionally showing typical harvest weakness in good producing regions but be much stronger in regions flooded with poor production in NW IA and SW MN. As for next year's crop, we anticipate that there will be hedging opportunities above $5 for December 2025 corn to again ensure acreage for next year. There is an open chart gap at 504 in that contract. Many regions are no longer economically viable to grow corn and soybeans profitably. Soybeans: We currently have 10% of 2024 production hedged at 1207 in November futures and 85% revenue insurance coverage at 1155. Bottoming action is expected soon with a worst-case downside technical objective of 919. We would see that as an objective to lock up a record crop insurance indemnity. As for next year, USDA produced a bearish soybean balance sheet along with a negative cost of production outlook which should result in a ...

The USDA report on Monday provided no additional changes to Brazil's 23/24 crop season. They did reduce Argentina's soybean production by 0.5 MMT and their corn production by 2 MMT. CONAB released their August update a day after the USDA, where they reduced Brazil's corn production estimates by 0.2 MMT placing them at 115.6 MMT compared to the USDA at 122 MMT. CONAB boosted corn acres by 250,000 but reduced production in Parana where later planted fields saw yields drop more than expected. Both agencies have plenty of yield data at this point as all the regions that really matter have wrapped up corn harvest with remaining areas to be harvested falling within the "fringe" areas. This leaves us with a 6.3 MMT gap between USDA and CONAB crop estimates which appears it will go unreconciled.   CONAB did increase their corn export predictions by 3 MMT, taking them to 36 MMT. We feel that additional increases to their exports are warranted and may eventually end up closer to 40 MMT. The second half of the year is when the bulk of Brazil corn exports take place as their corn harvested in July and August begin arriving at the port for shipment. On the other hand, US FOB prices remain competitively priced compared to Brazil and the Ukraine. Spot premiums are over $1/bu over Chicago in Brazil and Ukraine is nearly $1.50 over. Meanwhile, US Gulf prices are hovering around $0.85 over. This is a strong indication that US corn exports will ...

On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade thus far. As of 6am corn was steady to weak, beans on the firm side and wheat lower. We're beginning to see a fairly steady stream of flash export sales in both corn and beans as our price decline is augmented by recent reaffirmation of the downtrend in the U.S. dollar to put prices below those of Brazil.   The pressure on the dollar stems from increasing confidence that easing inflation and worrisome employment numbers make a 50-pt. cut in interest rates by the Fed all but certain for September and some thinking there might even be another cut before yearend.

It is not impossible for something to yet materialize but the historical record for grain/soy markets to rally late in election years appears to be at risk of failure. Someone forgot to tell the funds who have remained stubborn with   record short positions. At the very least, this election year will not be remembered for CBOT market strength. No one other than the farmers and their bankers appears to care. The Ag sector is in a recession. The unprofitability from depressed commodity prices has gone virtually unmentioned during the current campaign by both parties. DJT has the rural farm vote and the Dems know that nothing will change that so what is there to talk about? I do not think that even the change by the Dems of presidential candidates will materially alter the election outcome of rural America. The Ag sector and farmers are not big dollar donors to political campaigns. The politicians respond to the money and unlike Big Tech, Bitcoin promoters, the Oil industry and other sectors, the Ag sector is not wealthy enough to pony up huge contributions to buy attention. The ethanol industry has tried to raise PAC funding but it is pretty insignificant in the scope of what other industries such as the petroleum industry contribute. I have no idea what constituencies contribute to the Dems but they would include the usual suspects. Trump has made his donor policy more transparent when publicly asking Big Oil for a $billion campaign donation and the Bitcoin ...

On the Grains When I hit the sack last night and took one last look at overnight trade I was encouraged to see nothing but plus signs. Even beans were up a few cents from yesterday's plunging close. I hoped maybe the worst had passed. After all, on their own, the ending stocks numbers for both corn and wheat actually leaned a little price friendly yesterday at both the U.S. and global level. Yes, the U.S. corn yield was raised by 2.1 bpa, a full bu. more than expected. But planted area declined by 800,000 acres and harvested acreage was cut by 200,000 acres more than expected. If you divide the new production figure by the July estimate for harvested acreage, the average yield would have been up only half a bushel. Alas, as I send this off to press at 6am, beans are down hard again and dragging corn and wheat down with them. Yes, the average yield increased by 1.3 bpa, but that was right on the average trade estimate. It was the revision to acreage that KO'd this market. The trade expected harvested acreage to decline by an average of 145,000 acres. Instead, USDA boosted both planted and harvested acreage by a million acres. It raised ending stocks by 125 million bu. to 560 million bu. and beat even the very highest pre-release trade estimates by 5 million. It cut USDA's average farm price forecast 30 cents per bu. but was little noticed that even at $10.80 that was still nearly a buck a ...

The 2024 crop season will be difficult to analog with any other. It is unique. Characteristics include very diverse regional crop conditions and a slow to respond demand response to lower prices. It is not all economics driven as geopolitics is impacting market forces. Such influence is impossible to predict. USDA gets to make the big decisions which the market then leverages into its price discovery. The trade had expectations for a much higher corn yield this year and USDA confirms an above trend record yield of 183.1 bpa. This was higher than the average trade estimate by 1 bpa but well within the trade range of yield estimates. I think the dog caught the car in respect to trade expectations for corn in August reports. This record yield was held back by a thousand cuts from small wounds from late planting, flood, drought, hail, and derecho but that did not subtract enough to negate the record crop.   USDA reduced corn planted acreage by 800K and harvested acreage by 700k acres. The net of a 2.1 bpa higher yield from July to August reports, balanced against 700k fewer harvested acres, resulted in just a 47 mln bushel increase in corn production, 15.147 bln bushels, from the July estimate. It was good that USDA updated acreage. Beginning stocks were reduced by another 10 mln bushels. USDA left feed usage unchanged, reduced the ethanol crush by 15 mln bushels and increased their corn export prospects by 75 mln bushels. The net of all ...

On the Grains Grains are mostly lower in overnight trade thus far, with new crop corn and soybeans even making new lows. The immediate weather outlook appears mostly benign. Friday’s Commitments of Traders report released after the close showed that through last Tuesday, funds were indeed beginning to lighten up on their huge net short positions in corn, soybeans, and winter wheat (but continuing to add to their net short in spring wheat.) We’re not seeing much impact in futures, because the short-covering by funds is being absorbed by the continued “give-up” selling of old crop by farmers in excess of ongoing commercial demand. That requires merchants to hedge the difference. In the COT report that was most dramatic in corn. Even though funds covered more than 52,000 contracts of their net short position, the merchant hedger segment went from net long more than 27,000 contracts to net short more than 11,000 in a single week, essentially net selling of nearly 39,000 contracts. We'll get weekly export inspections at 10am this morning but they pale in significance to the August WASDE numbers that come out at 11am. There are multiple "wildcards" up and down the balance sheets on both production and usage that will impact the all-import ending stocks numbers. This month there's even an added "wild card" in how much USDA will trim its estimates for harvested acreage in corn and soybeans to account for prevented planting claims with FCA and how that, in turn, will impact the average yield calculations for ...

Grains are called steady on a quiet open that has traders waiting to judge the tone of outside financial markets and settling in to see the August crop report. In the Headlines September corn futures lost 9 3/4 cents last week. November beans were down 24 3/4 over the last five sessions. September Chicago wheat futures gained 3 1/2 cents. Sep KC wheat futures were down 5 3/4 cents. August live cattle closed the week steady while August feeders were down $10.05. August lean hogs were down $3.15 for the week. Export sales announcements were flashed on Friday morning to follow up rumors earlier in the week about Chinese buying. The trade activity did not rile up much enthusiasm for grain prices, even though it confirmed the price advantage that has opened up for U.S. exporters. A weakening dollar against the Japanese yen and Chinese yuan has the potential to boost additional export interest going forward. Trade groups have petitioned the U.S. government for help with railroad service issues being faced by exporters shipping grain to Mexico. The USDA Transportation Report cites Mexico having "insufficient rail capacity to meet demand." There have also been problems in the past with rail services at the border being paused because of illegal migrants using the trains to cross into Texas. Despite the railroad and border security challenges during the first half of the year, total grain exports to Mexico from interior U.S. locations were up 37 percent from the 5-year average. A frost/freeze scare popped up for parts ...

The USDA has a "Disaster Monitoring Team" that reports on the extent of crop damage from natural events like the heavy flooding that occurred in late June across the Western Corn Belt. A new review of that storm's impact was just released to show crop loss estimates that were surprisingly minimal.   With the study confined to a limited area covering the four corners of South Dakota, Minnesota, Iowa, and Nebraska, USDA's tally of the acres affected only included 70,000 of corn and 46,000 acres of soybeans. These acres were called totally inundated by the flood. The analysts did not attempt to account for ponding or any lasting issues that may have developed for crops not totally lost to the flood.   The determination of which acres were lost or not factors into the yield projections, given that the removal of flooded acres could leave the total crop with a higher yield average. An offsetting influence for the higher yields would potentially be the damage done to crops still standing. Reports from farmers suggest that Minnesota has a particular problem with nitrogen loss for the corn crop. Many other areas will deal with wet-weather disease issues such as soybean sudden death syndrome.   One point of frustration with the disaster report is that the coverage scope leaves out so much crop area that people know were damaged. For example, the report shows a picture of severe flooding in south-central Minnesota, but the assessment zone leaves that particular region out. The affected acreage count also does not ...

On the Grains As of 6am, grains are firmer with wheat up the most. Yesterday's probe of new lows for both December corn and November beans keeps the trend down, however and overnight strength possibly the flip-side of traders positioning for Monday's WASDE with those already short starting to cash in. There is still considerable farmer selling going on to make room for new crop, but we are noticing less pressure on basis and even some basis improvement in some areas as buyers are finally starting to recognize bargain prices. The best hope at this point is that whatever USDA's numbers are on Monday, they may already be dialed in even if somewhat "bearish." If so, and the markets don't break much on "bearish" numbers that could be the catalyst that finally triggers short covering by funds that could feed on itself for a decent rebound.   Weekly export sales released early yesterday were a mixed bag. Here are the numbers and the status of sales YTD as they impact USDA's export forecasts in   Monday's WASDE update: CORN – New crop sales at only 249,000 tonnes didn't even make the low end of expectations that ranged from 475K to 1 million tonnes. Old crop sales, on the other hand were stellar, at 485,000 tonnes they blew the top end of expectations that ranged from 100K to 400K. Sales YTD are up 38.2% vs. USDA's current forecast for them to be up 34%. This close to the end of the marketing year, if anything USDA should ...

Where are US aircraft carrier task forces today? Those that are in service are being shuffled around the world like paddles in a game of whack-a-mole to attempt to cover all of the globe’s geopolitical hot spots. We have reached a point where the US Navy is short of the necessary resources to meet every mission being asked of them. The Navy is short of sailors and has had to resort to lengthening missions and exchanging crews to keep the fleet operating. We are not even at war and the US Navy is fully deployed. The USS Ronald Reagan, which is based in Yokosuka, Japan, the US Navy’s largest overseas naval base, is being switched out with the USS George Washington. What was unusual was that the Reagan returned to San Diego where the carrier transferred everything “from aircraft tires to hazmat suits” to the Washington. That is cutting the inventory of these items too close when forced to trade back and forth. The number of carriers in the fleet and the number which can be deployed at sea at any one time are two very different things. The USS Reagan will transfer its aircraft to the USS Washington at sea. Nimitz-class carriers require shipyard nuclear refueling and overhaul that is supposed to take 4 years but there were issues with the USS Washington, so that overhaul took 6 years. The USS Theodore Roosevelt, now deployed in the mid-east, has gone through 2 such life service maintenance overhauls and an ...

MODIFIED SOYBEAN RECCO DAY 3: On prior advice you have 10% of '24 beans hedged at 1207 and we've had a pending target of 1095 to hedge an additional 10%. Based on chart action, there's stubborn resistance just above 1080 so we're lowering our target for another 10% hedge to 1080.   On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade. As of 6am corn and beans are steady to slightly either side of unchanged while wheat prices are mostly firm. Weather remains mostly benign. Weekly ethanol data was supportive as production pulled back only slightly from last week's record and stocks declined versus expectations they'd be up.   We get export sales at 7:30 that could influence early trade depending on how they stack up versus expectations, but today's trade will mostly be trade reaction to the averages and ranges of estimates for Monday's WASDE. Looking first at production and average yield expectations there's an added wrinkle. As expected, USDA is going to adjust harvested acres downward to account for prevented plant claims. So, traders are making guesstimates on those as well. In both cases, the average trade expectations for cuts in harvested acreage are modest compared to those we were seeing from various pundits a month ago. Those are now the "low end" of trade estimates for harvested acreage adjustments.   In corn for example, the average trade estimate on yield is 182.1 bpa, up from 181 in July. Yet the production estimate is barely higher because the average trade estimate on harvested acres is ...

The FAS updated their estimates for Brazil’s 24/25 crop season, seeing a larger crop than this year but not as large as last year, attributed mostly to higher yields due to a return to La Nińa next season.  La Nińa typically brings more rain to the Center West region where most of the production is concentrated.  They look for planted area to increase overall by 2.3% to 54.3 million acres.  Neutral weather conditions are still expected through October of 2024, but there is currently a 50% probability that a transition to La Nińa will take place between October and November which is when the bulk of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop is planted.  They placed the 24/25 Brazil corn crop at 127 MMT, compared to this season’s USDA estimate of 122 MMT and 115 MMT for CONAB.  This would put their corn exports at 47 MMT compared to 53 MMT in the 22/23 season.   We will get another USDA update on Monday with one quickly followed by CONAB the day after.  Recent CONAB estimates would still place Brazil’s overall corn crop as the second largest in history.  We don’t expect CONAB to increase their August estimates much if any as yield reports closing out harvest have not been positive.  Expectations will still lean towards the USDA lowering their estimates.   The first crop of corn can begin planting in RGDS the second half of August already.  Rain is forecast for the state this week.  The first crop has steadily declined making it somewhat irrelevant.  ...

  MODIFIED SOYBEAN RECCO DAY 1: On prior advice you have 10% of '24 beans hedged at 1207 and we've had a pending target of 1095 to hedge an additional 10%. Based on chart action, there's stubborn resistance just above 1080 so we're lowering our target for another 10% hedge to 1080.   On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade. As of 6am corn and beans were lower but wheat prices were up slightly. We don't have the array of trade estimates for Monday's WASDE yet but should have those tomorrow. The consensus is that USDA will boost the average yield estimates and new crop ending stocks as well, with the only point of debate "by how much?"   However, there's a pretty good chance the actual increase will come in lower than expected for two reasons: First, there's a reasonable case from recent export sales and ethanol usage to see a downturn in old crop ending stocks and we learned two weeks ago that USDA is likely to use FSA data to reduce harvested acres from last month due to prevent-plant claims. The combination could mean a net result a little less bearish than what this market has already "dialed in."   Ditto for soybeans. A reasonable case can be made that strong crush results will offset any cut in the export forecast so old crop ending stocks can hold unchanged and lower harvested acreage estimates in the soybean balance sheet could result in a smaller boost to new crop ending stocks than what the ...

G/E soybean crop condition ratings improved 1% last week to 68% which compares to 54% a year ago. Hurricane Debbie is going to drown some crops on the east coast. Looking at my pictures, my crop condition is improving. Probably lost 4-5 acres of my 235-acre field to ponding. They finished planting the field on June 5th and the weather the rest of the season will have a major impact on the final result. This is not 1993. That year we stayed wet all season long with limited sunlight and was short on GDDs. We have had plenty of both so far this summer. The season ended early in 1993 with forced maturity. Soybeans "just' made it starting to turn when frost hit. Corn cobs were soft and corn test weight was the worst ever produced in 1993. We have 3 corn crops here this year determined by differing planting dates. The corn planted in late April will have plenty of growing season and I expect most corn planting in May will too. The 3rd crop planted in June will be at some risk of reaching full maturity. Then again, unlike 1993, current weather is moving development along and if there is a full extended season, this late planted corn will yield well. While the soybean crop is being made in August, it and the 3rd crop of corn will need an extended season this September. The La Nina continues to develop but too late in the season to have ...

On the Grains After an encouraging comeback to positive territory by the close yesterday, grains are all lower again in overnight trade thus far. Yesterday's fundamental news was encouraging for corn and wheat when weekly export inspections both came in at the high end of expectations. Soybean inspections, on the other hand, were near the low end of expectations.   In overnight trade, both stocks and energies are showing at least an attempt to rebound after the horrendous nosedive but not the grains. Traders are back to bracing for expected increases in crop size and ending stocks in the Aug. 12 WASDE. After the close we got the weekly crop progress and condition reports. The percentage of corn rated Good/Excellent dropped a point, as expected, to 67%, but still much better than last year at 57%. The portion rated Poor to Very Poor rose a point, to 10%, but still below last year at 14% P/VP.