CommStock Reports

04/06/2026 Trump Deadline, Key Crop Reports & Economic Data Coming Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Markets traded both sides of unchanged overnight, with corn and wheat favoring the downside early this morning while soy markets are slightly firmer. Crude oil futures showed initial price strength overnight but have weakened this morning while still reflecting elevated war premium as President Trump on Sunday issued a threat to destroy Iran’s power plants and blow up “everything over there,” before announcing what appeared to be a new Tuesday 8 p.m. deadline to open the Strait of Hormuz. Aside from geopolitical happenings, grain traders will get USDA’s initial winter wheat crop ratings of the spring this afternoon. Based on state level updates throughout winter, the good/excellent rating will fall from the 48% level reported both last fall and early April 2025. Weekly crop progress/conditions and the start of spring planting will put a greater focus on weather, especially with dryness/drought encompassing much of the U.S. crop area. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed 80% of the country faced moisture deficits at the end of March, with varied levels of drought over 44% of both corn and soybean area, 65% of winter wheat, 21% of spring wheat and 94% of cotton. The forecast offers some short-term relief, with an active pattern expected to bring above-normal rainfall from the middle of this week into mid-April. USDA will also release its April WASDE Report on Thursday, which will incorporate March Prospective Plantings and any changes ...

The stock market gave a strong impression via the strong relief rally early this week that it knows something about the timing as to when the war with Iran will end gleaned from the heavy hints dropped by the president. Mondays low could be tested but should serve as strong support as a candidate for becoming the Iran war low in the S&P. I previously took profit on my S&P put too soon. I am going to assume that some traders know things that are privileged information that we are not privy to as the public. In other words, the stock market may be acting on privileged information other than investor consensus. I do not think that is fair but in this case I hope this information is correct. I have said that it did not make sense to me to spend American lives opening the Strait of Hormuz when the US has no need for the oil. That was why we worked so hard to become energy independent.   The media has evidently been doing a good job of informing us of what the President wants us to know as I noted almost nothing in his presidential address that that was not already reported by the press. I was hoping for some new news. That is why macro-markets reversed today. Probably the standout statement in the address was “we will bomb them back to the stone age.” Iran will not suffer this destruction alone. I believe that Iran has the ability ...

04/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Fails to Calm Markets On the Grains Markets reversed Wednesday’s price action overnight as President Trump failed ease traders’ unease with the war. His Wednesday night address to the nation offered no clear timeline or breakthroughs on ending the conflict with Iran, only noting U.S. objectives would be completed “very soon,” while saying the U.S. will hit Iran “extremely hard” in next two to three weeks. Markets wanted clarity… Trump didn’t provide that. The lack of a clear timeline for ending the war eroded hopes that it might come to a speedy end and the Strait of Hormuz could open soon. Grain markets followed the crude oil market higher overnight, with soy oil leading the way, as traders rebuilt some war premium into prices. Crude oil prices are still well below the March 9 spike highs but are trading at the highest levels since that day. Market unease and volatility are elevated ahead of the upcoming three-day holiday weekend, with geopolitics remaining the No. 1 focus. Soy Crush, Corn-For-Ethanol Grind Decline in February but Up From Year-Ago U.S. processors crushed 214.2 million bu. of soybeans in February, down 6.1% from January but up 13.0% from last year. Corn-for-ethanol production totaled 424.8 million bu. in February, down 8.0% from January but up 0.7% from last year. Soybean crush is on pace to hit USDA’s forecast of 2.575 billion bushels. Corn-for-ethanol use is pacing behind the needed level to reach USDA’s forecast of 5.6 billion bu., as sorghum has replaced corn ...

April weather forecasts appear mostly favorable with precipitation covering large portions of the Corn Belt except for parts of Western Nebraska and Kansas.  Rainfall accumulates predominately in the Northern portions of Illinois and Indiana, where it should help alleviate severe drought concerns.  According to the GFS, portions of West Central Illinois, Eastern Iowa and Northern Missouri will see up to 6” the first half of April.  This may reduce the likelihood of early planting in those areas.   I drove through Western Iowa late last week and everything looked pretty much ready to go.  I did spot a couple of fields that were planted already but I won’t tell you where.  I was only able to lay strips on about half of our corn acres last fall, but we were able to find a narrow window early this week just ahead of some light precipitation.  I have never laid strips in the spring before, but considering warmer spring temperatures seem to be a more frequent occurrence, I thought it might be a possibility.   Brazil’s soybean harvest is over 80% complete this week and shows no indications of falling below 180 MMT.  A recent crop tour by Agroconsult sees Brazil’s total crop size reaching 184.7 MMT, with the potential of a national record yield of 55.8 bpa on top of additional record acres.  This compares to USDA at 180 MMT.  The only state with below average yields was that of RGDS which was no surprise.  As expected, yield loss in this state appears to ...

04/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video No Fooling: Geopolitics Continue to Supersede Fundamentals On the Grains Wheat futures led a round of selling in the grain markets overnight. Wheat and corn more than erased Tuesday’s gains, while soybeans gave back about half of what they gained yesterday. Soy oil also retreated overnight, while soy meal traded higher. Much of traders’ focus remains on geopolitics and crude oil, which is under pressure, with WTI futures dipping below $100 overnight as President Trump said the war with Iran could end within a couple weeks. Trump will address the nation on the war situation at 8 p.m. CT. Markets will pay close attention as Trump is expected to outline his administration’s strategic objectives, including whether the U.S. will pursue a negotiated end to hostilities, maintain military pressure or shift toward a containment posture. Breakdown of USDA’s Reports: Markets Fail to Hold Fundamental Focus Following are results for USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Report from Tuesday. Key Highlights: Traders reacted to Prospective Plantings more than Quarterly Grain Stocks, as the misses for March 1 stocks were minor for corn and average for soybeans compared to previous years. Implied second quarter 2025-26 corn use of 4.28 billion bu. was a record. Corn use has been record large through the first half of 2025-26. Combined corn and soybean plantings remained at 180 million acres. All-wheat seedings are expected to be record low. Spring wheat area is expected to decline 575,000 acres, with top producer North Dakota down 400,000 ...

Israel has literally killed scores of Iran's top leadership in a "decapitation" campaign. Iran has shown no sign of being able to block such surgical strikes continuing to lose key political and military leaders throughout the war. I admit to being fascinated as to how they have been able to do this. AI says," Israel's approach relies on a combination of sophisticated technological surveillance, human intelligence, and precision air power: Intelligence Fusing: Israel has successfully pinpointed leaders by tapping Tehran's security cameras and using advanced algorithms to track daily movements, addresses, and commute routes. Tracking Networks: Mossad and IDF intelligence have monitored the mobile phones and movements of bodyguards to build "patterns of life" for high-value targets. Drone Warfare: Fleets of loitering drones operate over Tehran and other cities, shifting from large command centers to targeting individual security checkpoints and roadblocks manned by the Basij paramilitary force." Russia tried this in Kiev with Zelensky and failed. I am sure that our enemies are learning from Israel. You do have to have air dominance to consummate the strikes to make this possible. This decapitation is a departure from recent history when most world leaders felt protected from war. Trump captured Maduro but could have killed him. The eye for an eye thing of these cultures is cause for concern. The drawback from this is that they killed those in position of authority to negotiate to end the war. Israel was reportedly given a no-kill list by the US for ones they are reportedly talking to now. The regime may have not changed ...

03/31/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Await Key Data, Geopolitical Decisions On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, though a generally firmer tone has developed early this morning aside from corn and spring wheat, which are modestly lower. Traders await USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports at 11 a.m. CT, both of which have potential to swiftly move markets. Crude oil futures also traded on both sides of unchanged overnight but have developed a firmer tone this morning. President Trump’s conflicting signals are amplifying uncertainty across global markets, as investors struggle to reconcile rhetoric pointing toward de-escalation with continued military escalation on the ground. The result is a widening disconnect — one that is driving sharp, intraday swings across energy, equities and commodities. On one hand, repeated assertions that negotiations with Iran are progressing; on the other, explicit threats targeting critical infrastructure and an ongoing expansion of military operations. That inconsistency is keeping risk premiums elevated, particularly in oil markets tied to the Strait of Hormuz. And now the Wall Street Journal reported Trump signaled to aides a willingness to wind down the U.S. military campaign against Iran — even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. The narrative gap between words and actions is becoming the market driver. Until there is alignment — either through verifiable negotiations or a clear shift in military posture — uncertainty and volatility are likely to remain elevated across the broader marketplace. Key USDA Reports Could Give Grains More of ...

President Trump says that "the war with Iran is finished but it is not quite finished." The military offensive has had an enormous destructive impact on Iran's traditional military. They have been executing everything as planned on the schedule ahead of time, according to the President and the Pentagon, that is under their preview and control. The President says that Iran is begging to negotiate and the buildup of additional US forces including marines and airborne units is just precautionary or pretense. Trump has ended two previous rounds of negotiations with military strikes and wants them to believe that if they do not concede to his terms there will be another. Current communications are not advanced enough to be called negotiations. They have killed so many Iranian officials they had to find someone with the authority there to negotiate with. US Special forces units reportedly left the US for Jordan last week. The arrival and pending arrival of two Marine Expeditionary Units (MEU) along with a brigade and headquarters contingent of the 82nd airborne is meant as intimidation.   The type of units that Trump has spun up are assault troops meant to take something…a beach, island, airport and briefly hold it until reinforced with more heavily armed units such as infantry or armored brigades or divisions backing them up. That kind of deployment would require much more in terms of logistics. It is an army and is much harder to move. President Trump has given no such indication or orders for ...

03/30/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soyoil Supported by RVOs, Crude Oil On the Grains Soy oil futures rallied sharply overnight, rebounding from Friday’s sell-the-fact reaction to EPA’s biofuels news. The soyoil strength overnight supported soybeans while soymeal weakened. Grains traded on both sides of unchanged, with corn and SRW wheat trading higher for much of the overnight session, while HRW wheat weakened. Grain and soy traders have a split focus as they factor in EPA’s renewable fuels rule from Friday, prepare for USDA’s key reports on Tuesday and keep a pulse on the geopolitical situation.Crude oil prices firmed overnight, with Brent topping $116 overnight, while WTI pushed above $100 amid an escalation in the Middle East. More U.S. troops arrived in the Middle East as President Trump considered a ground operation to extract Iran’s uranium, the Wall Street Journal reported. The report came after Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen fired on Israel, adding risk to shipping through the Bab al-Mandeb strait — a key alternative to the Strait of Hormuz for Gulf oil exports. Traders are factoring in the deepening Middle East conflict removes any realistic chance of near‑term de-escalation. Highlights of EPA’s Finalized RFS Set 2 Rule On Friday, EPA finalized its Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Set 2 rule for 2026 and 2027, raising biomass-based biodiesel (BBD) volumes above proposed levels while adopting a 70% reallocation of previously waived obligations tied to small refinery exemptions (SREs) a move aimed at reinforcing biofuel demand without destabilizing credit markets. The rule also delays implementation ...

A lot of weekend still left to go in terms of what could yet pop up into the first session of the new market week, but rising Middle East pressures were poised to give crude oil futures a fifth straight higher Sunday night opening. Grains looked set up toward a slightly stronger start, but again vulnerable to selling off along with crude oil like what happened going into the last several Mondays. Trading sentiment could be tested by expected follow-through on stock prices selling off. In the Headlines The weekend was marked by further escalation of fighting in the Middle East, now with the Houthi rebels in Yemen having rejoined the fray with attacks launched against Israel. The Houthi's involvement worsens the threat against another key energy chokepoint in the Bab al-Mandab Strait that comes out of the Red Sea. Energy infrastructure continued to be targeted by all sides, but there had not yet been a confirmed move by the U.S. to take over the Strait of Hormuz or Kharg Island. It was reported that the USS Tripoli arrived to the region late last week with 2,500 U.S. Marines. Diplomatic negotiations with Iran are reportedly relying on mediation from Pakistan, which had its ships permitted to carry oil through the Strait of Hormuz as part of what President Trump referred to as Iran's 'present' to the United States. Pakistan's prime minister stated that Iran planned to allow 20 more ships through the strait over the next several days. The U.S. submitted its 15-point ...

Spring storms swept through parts of the Midwest on Thursday evening to bring wind and hail but also helpful doses of moisture. Drought otherwise persisted across much of the country where the rain outlook remained limited through the two-week forecast. It is that time of the year when we are thinking about weather's influence on spring acreage decisions, which goes with having the prospective plantings report coming up on Tuesday next week. Weather is the top factor that can spark change from those planting intentions estimates significantly, like for last year's jump from 95.3 million prospective corn acres in March to 98.8 million estimated presently.   Aside from talk about the weather, client conversations have been addressing how fertilizer costs are going to have an enhanced impact on planting decisions this season, with even just marginal localized fertilizer effects against corn plantings potentially adding up materially on a national level. Price spreads remain the other planting decision factor along with crop insurance comparisons. New-crop corn and soybean futures are both up from a year ago with the soybean-to-corn ratio up just slightly from where the fall contracts were trading at this time last year, after soybeans lost a bigger edge on the recent limit-lower day.  Corn is still king and looks even better relative to dimmer profitability prospects for other crops outside of soybeans, but expectations for planting possibilities this year have to be framed in relation to the modern record for corn acres from last year.   The reference of the modern record ...

03/27/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Will RVOs ‘Juice’ Biofuels Demand? On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded higher overnight, with all but soymeal working on weekly gains. Traders are monitoring the ongoing war in Iran, with anticipation building ahead of the White House’s “Great American Agriculture Celebration,” at which the Trump administration is expected to formally unveil the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Set 2 final rule. There have not been any leaks ahead of the event, though Politico had one line in their item on the White House event today that final RFS levels would “juice” biofuels demand. Price action in soyoil, in particular, signals traders are expecting supportive biofuels news. Crude oil futures firmed as Iran and Israel exchanged missile fire and Tehran targeted several Gulf states on Friday. On Thursday, President Trump again pushed back his deadline for Iran to agree to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face attacks on its power infrastructure. The 10-day extension was his second since Saturday’s threat to destroy the critical infrastructure in the absence of Tehran accepting a 15-point list of ceasefire terms. Trump keeps extending his deadline and Iran is showing no signs of backing down. China’s commerce ministry started two investigations into U.S. trade practices, similar to probes by the Trump administration against Beijing. One targets U.S. practices that Beijing said disrupt global supply chains, covering restrictions on Chinese goods entering American markets, export controls on advanced technology and limits on bilateral investment in critical sectors. The other action focuses specifically ...

I am going to begin today, close to home, at the Valero ethanol plant in Hartley Iowa. A client sold cash corn there for 472 last week. They had called him looking to buy low-CI corn. He then called and asked me if he should sell and I told him to part with every bushel that he could deliver. Valero has producers calculate their carbon intensity (CI) scores and they pay qualifying producers a premium for low-CI qualifying corn. This producer uses manure so buys no commercial P/K so he has a good score. Low-carbon ethanol is demanded by some foreign buyers and they reportedly had an export sale of ethanol to the UK lined up that they needed low-CI corn to grind for. In this case I believe that the producer got a premium on the premium they typically pay for low-CI corn. A recent text from Valero read, “Super long lines…Parking lot is full”. Farmers are rushing to deliver corn as they see field work starting here soon. This region of NW IA/SW MN had several years of short crops until 2025 when we had a bin-buster. There is a lot of corn around here. Farmers sold beans while holding onto corn. The spot basis here is 35 under with another 3-cent loss against a 5-cent futures gain Wednesday…worse than at harvest and the worst basis seen here this time of year in years. In recent years the basis was par to premium the CBOT. Their posted cash ...

03/26/2026 Markets Await the More Important Data & Developments Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk today. On the Grains Grain and soy futures traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, though a generally firmer tone has developed early this morning aside from soymeal and SRW wheat. Traders await EPA’s coming biofuels blending mandates for 2026 and 2027, along with how much of the small refinery exemptions granted from 2023 to 2025 will be reallocated to bigger refiners, which are much more important than Wednesday’s waiver for summertime E15 sales. They are also starting to position ahead of the key March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks Reports – both of which could have significant market implications – while keeping a close watch on the war with Iran. Crude oil futures are firmer as both the U.S. and Iran have dug in their heels, giving traders little confidence a near-term end to the war is in sight. The White House insisted peace talks with Iran are ongoing, even as Tehran countered a U.S. peace proposal. The U.S. is weighing options for a “final blow” in Iran that may include ground forces and a major bombing campaign, Axios reported. Separately, the Washington Post said the Pentagon is considering diverting some weapons meant for Ukraine to the Middle East, where supplies are dwindling. These include air defense interceptor missiles. President Trump posted on Truth Social: “The Iranian negotiators are very different and ‘strange.’ They are ‘begging’ us to make a deal, which they should be doing since they ...

Temperatures warm up this week, showing 7 degrees above their historical averages in parts of the Midwest.  Southern Iowa soil temps have already reached 50 degrees while Northern Iowa soil temperatures are not far behind.  As the snow melted quickly over the weekend, the yard was too sloppy to load corn.  It should dry out quickly as most nearby temperatures are in the 60's.  We are not naïve enough to think that colder temperatures cannot sneak back in at some point, but early indications show that temperatures should not be a limiting factor with respect to planting dates.   Rainfall is limited to the Eastern Cornbelt this week but expands across Iowa and the Northern Cornbelt as we head into April.  As we have covered previously, the highest rainfall is seen falling in the driest areas, Northern IL, IN, OH and Southern Michigan could see around 3" in the next two weeks.  The Central Cornbelt sees around 1" while Nebraska and Kansas see virtually nothing.  This is consistent with the forecast provided by Eric Snodgrass late last month.  Above average precipitation to the East with below average precipitation to the West.   Focus this week will fall on three things.  1) De-escalation of the war in Iran, 2) RVO blend obligations and 3) Prospective acreage shifts.  It would stand to reason that we have lost some corn acres from those repelled by insanely high fertilizer prices.  While it may not be much, even a 1% shift could trim close to 1 million acres from ...

03/25/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Await Iran’s Response On the Grains Corn, wheat and soy oil futures continued to follow the crude oil market, trading lower overnight. Soybeans and soymeal continued to trade in the opposite direction of those markets, working higher overnight. Iran continued its missile attacks across the Middle East, while the U.S. prepared to send parts of the 82nd Airborne division to the region. The U.S. has sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war, which centers largely around previous Trump administration demands of Tehran. The document, sent through intermediaries, calls on Iran to dismantle its three main nuclear sites and end any enrichment on Iranian soil, suspend its ballistic-missile work, curb support for proxies and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. In return, Iran would have nuclear-related sanctions lifted. Iran has reportedly received the proposal but has not responded. Importantly, it’s unclear is Israel has signed off on Trump’s proposal. For now, markets are treating the peace proposal with cautious optimism. Fuel Prices Surge, Crude Oil Pauses National average fuel prices continue to rise, with diesel within 45 cents of its all-time high, due to supply constraints caused by the war with Iran. Crude oil prices have stabilized for now below $100 for Brent and below $90 for WTI – both well below their March 9 intraday peaks. Biofuels News Coming... Bullish or Sell the Fact? EPA is preparing to issue emergency fuel waivers temporarily exempting E15 gasoline from volatility restrictions to allow for sales from June 1 to Sept. ...

Early in this nations' developmental history, as they shaped where they thought that US boundaries should be located, Presidents Thomas Jefferson, John Adams and James Monroe all envisioned the shared opinion that the inclusion of Cuba was "indispensable". This was back when founders worked together for the collective interests of the country. Franklin Pierce talked of acquiring Cuba in his inauguration speech and his VP was sworn into office in Cuba. James Polk offered Spain $100 mln to buy Cuba. Somehow it has always gotten away. We did control it after the Spanish American war and that did not go all that well. Our past Presidents were far more attune to adding Cuba to the US hegemony then they were interested in Greenland. In their mindset, it was not a matter of if but when Cuba would be included as part of the USA. Adams wanted a marker placed in SE corner of Cuba that set where the US began. 250 years later it has not happened but another president is looking at that possibility. Looking at a map, at that time it was obvious why these presidents wanted control of Cuba. It was the doorway to the Caribbean and the Mississippi. The Gulf Steam can be entered just north of Havana flowing along the coast of the original 13 states. Control of this region to prevent it from falling under foreign dominance, prompting the Monroe Doctrine, was important… competing with France, the Netherlands, England and Spain for island territories ...

03/24/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Optimism Fades for Quick War Off-Ramp On the Grains Grain and soy markets reversed Monday’s price trends during the overnight session, with corn and wheat rising while soybeans faded. Crude oil futures firmed a little after Monday’s sharp decline as fighting in the Middle East continued and Iran called President Trump’s claim of negotiations to end the war “fake news.” Iran continued to target Israeli locations, while U.S. allies Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates reportedly are moving toward joining the fight against Iran. Today’s early tone in broader market risk off. But as Monday proved, sentiment can change quickly with the latest headline – or social media post. Markets remain in holding patterns as traders wait for clues to the war’s longevity. About the only certainty is heightened market volatility. While the VIX has spiked, it’s still far below far below other recent peaks, showing investor/trader fear isn’t extreme. Russia Joins Growing List of Fertilizer Exporters to Curb Shipments Russia has imposed restrictions on the export of nitrogen fertilizers from March 21 to April 21 to ensure sufficient domestic supply during the spring planting season. Russia’s ag ministry has stopped issuing export licenses for ammonium nitrate, with the only exception being for government contracts. China last week asked exporters to halt outbound shipments of nitrogen-potassium fertilizer blends. Several European fertilizer producers previously announced they had reduced production due to high input costs amid the war with Iran. Bloomberg reported Australian farmers will plant less wheat for 2026-27 amid fertilizer price ...

The eye for an eye exchange of strikes on energy infrastructure last week was the escalation between Israel and Iran that alarmed our president to the point where he told them it needed to stop. Israel complied as told. A couple of days later he was threatening Iran's power plants if Iran did not reopen the strait, so inconstancy is all that is constant. Trump set a deadline for that threat around 7:44 p.m. EDT (2344 GMT). Then early today Trump wrote in a post on Truth Social that all military strikes on Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure would be paused for five days "subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions." TACO? There are no winners if the Mid-East war devolves into a self-inflicted, burned-out carcass of destroyed oil pipes and tanks at a cost of hundreds of billions of dollars. Over 17 mln barrels of oil were moving out of the Persian Gulf each day before, which as a result of the war has fallen to a trickle of tankers. Pipelines to the Red and Arabian Seas can move 6.5 mln barrels a day, but that is not enough to compensate for the disruption of the strait. Iran was shipping about 1.7 mln barrels a day and likely still is close to that. Iran wants to control the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz choosing who else gets to use it. That is not acceptable and it appears the US Navy was going to have ...

03/23/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Whipsaw; Tenor Abruptly Changes with Trump Post On the Grains Grain and soy futures, along with crude oil futures, were stronger overnight, with traders striking a risk-off posture. President Trump issued a blunt ultimatum to Iran on Truth Social: fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours (7:44 p.m. ET), or the United States would "hit and obliterate" Iranian power plants — starting with the largest. Tehran answered by threatening to seal the strait completely if any energy facilities were struck. Iran said it also will attack Israel's power plants and those supplying U.S. bases across the Gulf region, along with water assets in the Middle East, if Trump carries out his threat. But shortly after 6 a.m. CT, a Truth Social post from President Trump completely changed the tenor for markets. Grain and soy markets, along with crude oil futures immediately fell, while U.S. stock futures and Treasuries took on a risk-on stance. Bottom line: Markets are trading headline-to-headline — with oil, inflation expectations and geopolitical signals overriding traditional fundamentals in setting near-term direction. On the Cattle:  Last Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report leaned bearish as February placements topped year-ago for the first time in 11 months, rising 57,000 head. That pushed the March 1 feedlot inventory a little higher than anticipated, though still down 28,000 head from year-ago. The placements number easily missed to the upside, but February 2025 figure was also light, which skewed the category more than what many analysts anticipated. Bottom line: The report ...

Grains look vulnerable to following through on weaker finishes from last week unless a significant crude oil rally is sustained, which is in question after that the last two weeks saw crude oil making highs to start off and coming down from there. Attacks on Israel continued Sunday by Iran from the south and Hezbollah in the north. Attention was on an Iranian ultimatum from President Trump. In the Headlines Last week ended with the stocks at new lows, for the S&P futures to be down 330 points for the month to date. Nearby crude oil futures finished the week just under $100 to hold a gain of $31 so far for the month. In aftermath of the Fed meeting, the 2-year Treasury yield rose to a new 8-month high of 3.9 percent. May soybean futures closed last week with a loss of 64 cents while May corn rebounded to just 1 3/4 lower. Cattle aligned with the stock market every day until Friday, with April live holding up $3.15 last week while April hogs were down $2.17. President Trump posted a few newsworthy comments on his Truth Social page this weekend, including one with another reference to 'winding down' the war in Iran. Not long after that post on Saturday evening, there was a threat of Iran having 48 hours to 'fully open' the Strait of Hormuz or else he said the U.S. would 'obliterate their various power plants.' Other posts were about ICE being sent to U.S. airports on Monday to ...

Spring is the season for weather markets to develop as winter crops come out of dormancy and summer crops get planted. There will still be ample attention on weather's influences on markets this year, with 75 percent of the country currently rated abnormally dry or worse, but also with some hope of the outgoing La Nina stirring up an active weather transition ahead. In any case, weather may be put on the back burner along with the other so-called 'core' fundamentals of the grain space, at least as long as it stays a war market over everything. War-related volatility remains the major caveat for conducting fundamental analysis that is otherwise still necessary as the shift into spring brings new inputs like the upcoming stocks and acres reports.   The grain futures spreads are worth monitoring for implications about the availability of old-crop stocks and about prospects for the next crop. Along with basis softening, corn spreads have widened over the last two months so that the market incentivized carry over the need for additional spot sales on top of the recent wave of heavy farmer selling. Estimations of the corn carry incentives include the May/July futures spread reaching up to about 90 percent of the full cost of carry (storage, interest, insurance, and handling). A wider front-end corn spread may justify what farmers have priced for July delivery, whether by having short futures or forward contracts, depending on basis. The July/December corn spread of -15 cents is about 45 percent of full ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     We have heard reports that some growers in southern Illinois are unable to obtain fertilizer regardless of prices, and therefore are cancelling corn seed orders switching to beans. If any of our readers can shed light on this, please let us know.   On the Grains Today is the spring equinox bringing sunlight for half of the day. The flip from blizzard to 70 degrees was fitting for the transition into spring and into the developing planting season. Markets now have a test of the new crop outlook with survey results from the Prospective Plantings report coming on March 31. Traders will still keep plenty of attention on the old-crop for what the Grain Stocks report says about usage and the state of the cash market. Price action as of late reflected that there was both relatively more old-crop corn left over for farmers to sell and more acres shifting to soybeans this spring. This afternoon's report will cover what the spreads are signaling about the old-crop/new-crop dynamics and what to do about it through report day.   This last week of the astronomical winter has been another busy one, starting with Monday's limit-lower soybean break on news of President Trump's China visit being delayed. Soybeans stayed under pressure as they were left out of what China reportedly agreed to buy more of during talks in Paris with the U.S. Treasury Secretary. Tuesday ...

I have yet to read any analyst who has put the elimination of the Iranian regime's hierarchy, that was achieved via airstrike at the initiation of the war with Iran, into comparative perspective. I will give it a try. 49 of Iran's top echelon, including the Supreme Leader Ali Khomeini were killed as the result of some amazing Israeli intelligence locating the meeting. Ali's son Mojtaba was seriously wounded. Supreme Leader is an office similar to POTUS. When the dust settled, their remaining cabinet that was still breathing met and anointed Mojtaba as his father's successor to be the new Supreme Leader.  Ali's daughter, son-in-law, and a grandchild were also killed. Mojtaba's wife Zahra Haddad-Adel reportedly died as well. It was a bad day for the Khomeini family. This was justified by the terrorism they supported. Isreal says that they will keep trying to kill the new Supreme Leader until they get him.   Comparingly, if this were a mirror reflection of the Donald Trump family, President Trump would have topped the list of casualties. He could not lie in state as they would fear another airstrike on anyone attending the funeral. Ivanka and Jared would have been killed. His oldest granddaughter Kai Trump may have also been killed. For purposes of this comparison, Don Jr's girlfriend Bettina would be the dead wife. The Trump family is alive and well and we hope that they stay that way. If Iran has anything to say about it, they will move heaven and hell ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Overnight grains started out firm and have held that up until now. As of 5:30 corn is up a nickel, as are old crop beans, while new crop beans are up a dime. Even wheat is showing strong with July Chicago up 8 cents. While we still have a long way to go to regain the losses from earlier in the week, at least we seem to be moving in the right direction. These markets will likely continue to follow the whims of the situation in the middle east and the response of markets such as crude, at least until we get into the swing of planting season and start paying attention to weather.   On the Cattle:   Another day of lighter trade volumes with fats picking up a few cents and feeders dropping 50 cents to a dollar depending on the month. The cutout value continues to remain strong.   Here are Wednesday’s stats:     Wednesday’s Cattle Slaughter  * 3/11/26:    109,000 head (207,000 week to date) * Week ago:   108,000 head (211,000 week to date) * Year ago:   123,000 head (237,000 week to date)   Wednesday’s Cutout Value * Choice: $403.31 (+$0.65) * Select: $396.72 (+$2.21) * Spread:   $6.59   Wednesday’s Feeder Cattle Indices: * CME Cash Index  $364.80     (-$0.97) * Real-Time Index $360.07     (-$7.92)   On the Hogs:    A pretty quiet day on the board with hogs trading either side of unchanged. Cash was slightly higher.   Here are Wednesday’s stats:   Wednesday’s Daily Hog Slaughter * 3/18/26:       ...