CommStock Reports

June WASDE Highlights: There were no real highlights regarding changes in USDA corn/soybean/wheat production estimates and ending stocks. Production numbers were either unchanged from May or rounding adjustments made on 25/26 stocks. The 26/27 wheat carryover was reduced 18 mln bushel to 744 mln bushel. USDA boosted Argentine soybean production by 2 mmts, while Brazil's soybean production remained unchanged from May. They added 2 mmts to Argentine corn production and 3 mmts to Brazil's corn production. That is another nearly 200 mln bushels of corn that we have to compete with. Nothing bullish in the June WASDE. Weather is bearish too. Stocks and planted acreage reports at the end of the month will be the next chance for a reset. **********   Time to Take Our hand Off the Hot Stove? Part 2 of 2   Better Places to Live Most farmers today did not choose where they live and farm. In my instance, it was a great-great grandfather who bought what became the Kruse Century farm in 1896 in Clay township of Clay County Iowa.  I never met him but I am only farming where I am because of him. I imagine that it is much the same for many others. I have no idea how much luck participated in the choice of where to locate. For some immigrants something about where they settled here reminded them of their home country. I believe that my forefathers were farmers in Mecklenburg Germany before farming here. Same for my wife's side of the family in Denmark. We benefit ...

06/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Numb to Tumultuous Situations On the Grains Corn, soybeans and winter wheat markets started firmer overnight but have weakened early this morning. The lack of buyer interest after heavy selling over the past month suggests traders aren’t expecting anything major from USDA in the WASDE and Crop Production Reports at 11 a.m. CT – pre-report expectations reflect that stance.It was a tumultuous night of weather across central U.S. with heavy rains, high winds, hail and tornadoes reported. More than 350 reports of severe weather were received by the National Weather Service for Wednesday and through the overnight hours, mainly in the Midwest and Plains. That was one of the five most active 24-hour periods of the year so far, according to the Storm Prediction Center. The active weather pattern will continue today. While there was some crop damage, traders continue to view weather as mostly favorable for crop development. The geopolitical scene is also tumultuous with another night of clashes between the U.S. and Iran. President Trump said the U.S. would further attack Iran unless Tehran accepts an accord to extend their increasingly tenuous ceasefire by two months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Crude oil futures initially traded higher overnight but are weaker this morning, as traders continue to exhibit war fatigue. What To Expect from USDA’s Reports USDA is expected to make modest changes to U.S. and global ending stocks forecasts for both 2025-26 and 2026-27. The winter wheat crop estimates also are expected ...

06/10/2026 Time to Take Our Hand Off the Hot Stove? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 Better Places to Live El Ninos are measured by temperature/heat. A Super EL Nino, now forecast, would be considerably hotter than a typical El Nino. "A "Super El Niño" is an informal term used by forecasters to describe exceptionally strong El Niño events. While a typical El Niño raises Pacific Ocean temperatures by at least 0.5^C, a super event drives those temperatures to 2^C or more above average, resulting in far more extreme global weather disruptions." When air temperatures warm, atmospheric rivers enlarge as they can hold more water. The correlation between heat and humidity is exponential rather than linear. Wet areas will get much wetter and dry areas much drier. All associated weather risks grow and intensify accordingly. Other historically recognized Super El Niños since 1950 occurred in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015-2016. That would make this one the 5th Super-El Nino since I began farming in 1973. The problem, conundrum or experiment is that the earths base temperature has risen significantly since 1950 so adding another 2^+C from a Super El-Nino is a really big thing. Global temperatures in 2025 were an average of 2.14 degrees Fahrenheit (1.19 degrees Celsius) above the 1951 to 1980 average. How much impact does 1^ of heat have on the earth's climate? For every 1^C of warming, the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water vapor. This fuels heavier downpours, increasing the risk of flash flooding, severe soil erosion, ...

Part 1 of 2 Better Places to Live El Ninos are measured by temperature/heat. A Super EL Nino, now forecast, would be considerably hotter than a typical El Nino. "A "Super El Niño" is an informal term used by forecasters to describe exceptionally strong El Niño events. While a typical El Niño raises Pacific Ocean temperatures by at least 0.5^C, a super event drives those temperatures to 2^C or more above average, resulting in far more extreme global weather disruptions." When air temperatures warm, atmospheric rivers enlarge as they can hold more water. The correlation between heat and humidity is exponential rather than linear. Wet areas will get much wetter and dry areas much drier. All associated weather risks grow and intensify accordingly.   Other historically recognized Super El Niños since 1950 occurred in 1972–1973, 1982–1983, 1997–1998 and 2015-2016. That would make this one the 5th Super-El Nino since I began farming in 1973. The problem, conundrum or experiment is that the earths base temperature has risen significantly since 1950 so adding another 2^+C from a Super El-Nino is a really big thing. Global temperatures in 2025 were an average of 2.14 degrees Fahrenheit (1.19 degrees Celsius) above the 1951 to 1980 average.   How much impact does 1^ of heat have on the earth's climate? For every 1^C of warming, the atmosphere can hold approximately 7% more water vapor. This fuels heavier downpours, increasing the risk of flash flooding, severe soil erosion, and mudslides. Conversely, the increased heat accelerates evaporation from the soil, ...

06/10/2026 Reco Day 3: Buy back 10% of short December 2026 corn futures hedges (for modest 5 cent gain). Buy back 40% of short December 490 corn calls (for modest 2 cent gain). This leaves short futures and long December 450 puts in place to hedge downside against 90% of 2026 corn sales while reopening upside exposure for 50% of the position. The goal is to keep downside protection a bit longer through the growing season while opening longer-term upside post-harvest.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Wheat Leading Corrective Bounce On the Grains Grain and soy markets strengthened overnight amid corrective buying as traders covered short positions ahead of Thursday’s USDA reports. Just as they led to the downside, wheat futures are pacing the corrective recovery. As we noted yesterday, traders are taking note of heightened attacks in the Black Sea region, with Russia targeting Ukraine’s Odesa ports, threatening agricultural exports from the key shipping hub. Crop concerns in the U.S. and other key production areas around the world are also supporting the corrective buying. Whether this turns into more than a corrective bounce after the extended price plunge will in part be determined by USDA’s reports. The U.S. and Iran exchanged strikes overnight. The U.S. launched military strikes against Iran in retaliation for the downing of a U.S. Apache helicopter near the ...

In late 2024 my wife and I were asked by friends to accompany them to visit the White House at Christmas. The last-minute invitation came from college friends, he is now the Mayor of Madison South Dakota. He had worked with the Biden White House on an infrastructure program that brought water to the Madison municipality and had received a special invitation for a White House Christmas tour. It was a fortuitous opportunity to tour the East Wing as it is no longer there, having since been razed to the ground by President Trump for his new ballroom. One thing I remember about this trip, though, was the plane ride home. One of our adjacent passengers, with whom we conversed, turned out to be a USDA scientist/official. She was on her way to Mexico. They were worried about the screw fly outbreak, and she was heading down there to assess the risk. She told us that at one time there were 3 labs set up to produce sterile flies which is how they'd controlled it. They had pushed the fly south to Panama. Then for whatever reason—most likely cost-cutting—they closed two of the labs. This has proved to be the opposite of cost cutting. The result was the fly resurged northward and made it to Texas last week. They knew then that one lab could not produce enough sterile flies and she was on her way South tasked with figuring out what to do next. We will see how far ...

06/09/2026 Reco Day 2: Buy back 10% of short December 2026 corn futures hedges (for modest 5 cent gain). Buy back 40% of short December 490 corn calls (for modest 2 cent gain). This leaves short futures and long December 450 puts in place to hedge downside against 90% of 2026 corn sales while reopening upside exposure for 50% of the position. The goal is to keep downside protection a bit longer through the growing season while opening longer-term upside post-harvest.   *** Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Take a Needed Breather On the Grains: Grain and soy futures modestly favored the upside overnight, aside from soyoil, as pressure from recent fund liquidation eased. A breather for the next couple of days is likely as traders square positions ahead of Thursday’s WASDE and Crop Production Reports. While no major changes to USDA’s forecasts are expected in those reports, markets need a pause. Corn, Soybean Crop Ratings Strong; Slightly Below Year-Ago & Average USDA rated 67% of the corn crop as good or excellent, unchanged from the previous week, though there was a two-point increase in the top category. That was unchanged from the previous week but four points below year-ago and two points below the five-year average for the week. The poor/very poor rating increased by one point to 6%. USDA rated 65% ...

Recco Day 1: Buy back 10% of short December 2026 corn futures hedges (for modest 5 cent gain). Buy back 40% of short December 490 corn calls (for modest 2 cent gain). This leaves short futures and long December 450 puts in place to hedge downside against 90% of 2026 corn sales while reopening upside exposure for 50% of the position. The goal is to keep downside protection a bit longer through the growing season while opening longer term upside post-harvest.    ***************************   There are probably a lot of lessons that can be learned in the last week from the market. The first one that comes to mind is, "It is always bullish at the top." Hopefully customers took our advice, selling on the way up. It would have been nice to get closer to the high, but we sold at profitable prices, choosing our targets rather than having it being chosen for us. Had it not been for the Black Swan event in the form of the Iran War, it seems reasonable to assume we never would have seen $5 corn. The seasonal high appears to be in.   Giving up 30 cents in a week should not surprise anyone. Weather is favorable and crops look good. As previously stated, there are reasons to be bullish longer term, but first we must get through a 16-billion-bushel crop. The challenge for those that remain hedged, is when and how to lift those hedges. I can personally attest to the desire to want to lift hedges that ...

06/08/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Fund Selling Continues, Weather Generally Favorable On the Grains Corn and soybeans faced follow through selling overnight. July corn posted another contract low, while December corn dropped to the lowest since mid-August 2025. July soybeans fell to the lowest since early February, while November is trading near the mid-March lows. Wheat traded on both sides of unchanged overnight, with a varied tone this morning – SRW chopping around unchanged; HRW and HRS futures trading modestly higher. Funds continue to shed length in grain and soy futures, as weather is viewed as generally favorable for crop development. As of June 2, their combined net long position across corn, the soy complex and wheat markets was cut to 531,627 futures contracts – about 60% of their length one month prior. But that’s still plenty of length they could shed. Seasonal to above-normal temperatures are expected across the Corn Belt this week. There is a near-daily chance for rains, favoring southern and eastern areas of the Corn Belt – areas that are already saturated. Flood Warnings for South China Farmland Heavy rains and flooding are forecast for southern China over the next 10 days, with some areas expected to receiver more than 400 millimeters (16 inches). China’s weather bureau and agriculture ministry have already issued a joint warning for risks to the region’s farmland, much of which produces rice. Areas of north-central and eastern China are also expected to experience above-normal rainfall during the summer growing season. China’s primary corn production ...

Grains poised to open with a rebound attempt that could quickly fall flat. In the Headlines Volatility picked up on a second straight week down for grains. July corn futures fell 29 1/4 cents, July Chicago wheat dropped 30 1/2, and nearby soybeans lost 65 1/4. It was also a volatile week for livestock with August live cattle that finished higher by $2.60 while August feeders gained $5.47. June hogs made new lows for the move after dropping $1.55 for the week. The S&P 500 stock index snapped a nine-week winning streak after having its worst day of the year on Friday. Having just made new record highs earlier in the week, stocks took the hit after a strong jobs report supported hawkish views on interest rates. The focus on monetary policy continues this week with updates on inflation, as well as with the European Central Bank meeting likely producing a rate hike on Thursday. Israel carried out strikes in Lebanon on Sunday despite a fresh ceasefire agreement being in effect, which Israel said had been violated earlier by Hezbollah fighters. Negotiations with Iran were described as remaining at a standstill as skirmishes continued in the Persian Gulf. Comments on the situation were still expected from President Trump later on Sunday. Soybeans were already under pressure on indications that it could still be months before reciprocal tariffs with China are lowered or removed; it compounded the negativity that the Trump administration announced plans for new tariffs under the Section 301 presidential authority to address unfair ...

A significant shift was marked in the expectations for U.S. monetary policy. Futures markets moved to assign a higher probability for the central bank raising interest rates this year over keeping the federal funds rate unchanged at 3.75 percent. The updated interest rate outlook was a reversal from the start of the year when traders were pricing in at least two quarter-point rate cuts, with some positioned for as much as a full point of easing. FOMC rate hike odds and bond market yields jumped further on Friday following the monthly jobs report.   Payroll counts were stronger than expected, just as numbers were in the leading employment reports earlier in the week. The Jobs Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April measured job openings climbing from 6.9 to 7.6 million, the highest in nearly two years. Layoffs were down, but fewer people quit their jobs, which signaled diminishing confidence in being able to find something different. Similarly, even though job openings were up, actual hirings were down, suggesting employers were stretching out the hiring process and becoming more selective due to uneasiness about the economy. Another private payrolls report for May beat expectations as it recorded growth in eight out of 10 employment sectors.   Healthy jobs data has coincided with new stock market highs but also with inflation readings rising again after the energy price surge. A resilient labor market and persistent inflation pressures were also driving changing views on interest rate potential as stable employment gives the Federal Reserve Bank ...

06/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Relatively Calm for Now After Tumultuous Week On the Grains Corn futures extended their sharp price plunge overnight, with July marking a contract low and December falling to the lowest since mid-January. Soybeans and the wheat markets had a varied tone in two-sided trade. All things considered, grain and soy markets were relatively quiet overnight after a week filled with massive fund liquidation. The aggressive fund selling has left markets overdone to the downside, but it’s difficult to get the herd turned when it’s all heading swiftly in one direction. Bulls need a catalyst to halt the selling and reenergize their efforts. Markets indicate weather conditions are viewed as generally favorable. While that may be broadly the case, these maps signal there are extreme variances. It’s haves (ample soil moisture) vs. have-nots (drought) vs. have too much (saturated). Key through the growing season will be whether the extremes smooth out or widen. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East remains shaky. Attacks continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon after the Iran-backed militant group rejected a U.S.-brokered proposal aimed at securing a broader truce. The U.S. and Iran have made little progress on a peace deal. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are up more than $5 for the week, but there are signs of traders getting war fatigue. Global Food Prices Stabilize… Anything but Stable Global food prices measured by the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization slipped 0.2% from the previous month in May as ...

In my view the conflict with Iran is worsening rather than improving. Some believe that President Trump has gotten caught in what they call an "escalation trap". "The escalation trap is a cycle where limited military actions fail to achieve their intended political goals, causing leaders to continuously escalate the conflict in an attempt to bridge the gap between military action and strategic outcomes. This cycle often leads to a widening, uncontrollable war." I think that the president's constant vacillation between additional military action and negotiation is because he is searching desperately for an exit from the trap without admitting he is caught in it. Israel does not want to end the war with Iran still functional enough to continue to be a threat. The US blockade will strain the Iranian economy but they will deem the political benefit, more strain on the global supply chain that will make everyone else hate us more, worth it. Even if some kind of superficial agreement is reached, it will not end the larger conflict. The Mid-East is the epitome of a "forever war" if there ever was one.   I also do not like being misled as to the state of affairs. What I think is true is not what the president is telling us. The situation as I see it, is that I believe that he is struggling with reality, fully surprised at the mess that this has devolved into. Israel and our military decapitated Iran's leadership and destroyed much of Iran's physical ...

06/04/2026 Screwworm Confirmed: Emotion, Money Flow and Perception Vs. Reality Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Screwworm Confirmed: Emotion, Money Flow and Perception Vs. Reality On the Grains Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight after downside breakout from the sideways range on Wednesday. Corn followed, with July futures scoring a contract low and December matching the early February low. Winter wheat markets also traded lower. China has started purchasing U.S. soybeans under the framework of the Busan trade agreement, according to USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. This is something I alerted you to last Friday via my subscribers-only video. On May 29, USDA reported daily soybean sales of 192,000 MT – 60,000 MT for 2025-26 and 132,000 MT for 2026-27. Daily soybean sales announced on May 14 were similar, with 120,000 MT for 2025-26 and 132,000 MT for 2026-27. It appears these purchases by “unknown destinations” was likely China. The key question now is whether Vaden’s comments mark the beginning of a sustained Chinese buying campaign or simply the first symbolic purchases under the new agreement. Until USDA export sales data verifies the volume and frequency of transactions, soybean traders are likely to view the reported purchases as an encouraging but unconfirmed sign that the trade deal is beginning to move from political commitment to actual execution. China has also likely purchased several cargoes of U.S sorghum. Chinese purchases of wheat may be on the horizon. Heavy harvesttime rains have damaged some of China’s winter wheat crop, which could lower yields and crop quality. That may eventually ...

The corn market has once again given back all its war premium and then some, falling below the $4.70 region.  The back and forth between the on again - off again conflict between the US and Iran continues.  One interesting consequence with war is it tends to invent new technologies (think GPS, early-stage computers).  This war has created a new word.  That word being "quasi-ceasefire" - used to refer to the pending conflict between the US and Iran.  It appears to be an oxymoron such as "quasi-diet".  In this scenario, I believe it means either side promises not to fire on the other….unless they get a clear shot.   While traders appear to want to believe that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen soon, the current standoff is less encouraging.  Online bets place the chance at opening the Strait of Hormuz by September 1st and 50%.   The market is growing tired of the back-and-forth stalemate.  Crude oil and corn are trading in opposite directions to the start the week.  Bulls will want to keep attention on the quasi-ceasefire but may find it difficult.  The weather outlook is positive, and as such will increasingly apply pressure to the market.  The dry pattern we highlighted last week quickly faded.  Corn continues to trade lower, even breaking major support at the 200 moving average.  We look for a modest bump as the turmoil unfolds in the Middle East, but if weather continues to cooperate, grains could continue to grind lower.  Much has been made of ...

06/03/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Tariffs Push Rebuilds; Middle East Conflict Continues On the Grains Soyoil futures strengthened overnight and are trading just below Monday’s contract highs. Soybeans followed to the upside. Wheat markets mildly extended their price slides. Corn has come off its for-the-move lows overnight to chop around unchanged early this morning.Traders have a lot of volatile news and events to digest, with many of the factors giving conflicting price signals. The U.S. and Iran continued their clashes overnight, threatening the shaky ceasefire, while the Trump administration proposed new tariffs on a host of key trading partners. Traders are also digesting normal summertime fundamentals, including weather, crop conditions and potential impacts to production potential. The U.S. is proposing new tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 trading partners, the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative said late Tuesday.   Following an investigation into how trade partners handle goods allegedly produced by forced labor, a 10% tariff rate would apply to imports from Canada, Mexico, the European Union, Taiwan and UK, among others. Products from other major economies, including China, India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil and Switzerland, would be subject to a 12.5% levy. The levies won’t go into effect immediately and are subject to public comment and review period before implementation. Written comments are due to be submitted by July 6, and a Section 301 panel is expected to convene public hearings beginning on July 7. USTR flagged 34 goods in particular countries that are made with inputs produced ...

Part 2 of 2 One of the most notable differences between this Ag recession and the 1980s farm depression is that this time politicians do appear to be more open to farm aid than before. Back then, we had to have tractor-cade protests and farm-aid concerts to draw attention to the disaster. Back then, farm banks failed in large enough numbers to worry the Fed. There is no issue this time with farm bank solvency. This time Trump exchanges political support from farmers for ACHs, above and beyond farm bill safety net provisions, on a regular basis. It is entirely political, but the ACH deposits spend the same. These payments do not make farm finances whole but they reduce the sting of his trade war policy.  The farm bill safety net is being improved and hopefully will not be deeply drawn upon. It is likely they will pass a new farm bill before the mid-term election. Farmers never got this much attention in the 1980s until the farm banking sector was overwhelmed. The Farm Credit System went belly up but this time they are solvent enough to continue paying dividends to their borrower/customers. They used the farm aid back then to bail out the banks through payments to farmers. That was a response to the farm crisis rather than being any coordinated aid system of financial support that prevented one. This time aid is being dispensed more proactively to prevent the worst-case scenario. The Federal Crop Insurance program has also been ...

06/02/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain Purge Continues On the Grains Corn, soybean and wheat futures traded lower overnight, despite lower-than-expected initial crop condition ratings for corn and soybeans and a sharp reduction to Australia’s expected wheat production. Speculators continue to shed length in the grain markets, proving again how powerful money flow can be when the herd gets moving all in the same direction. Crude oil futures eased from Monday’s gains as traders wait on developments in the Middle East amid mixed messages on talked aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz and ending the war. USDA’s initial corn crop condition ratings came in lower than anticipated at 67% good/excellent, down two percentage points from last year and four points below the five-year average. USDA pegged 5% of the crop as poor/very poor. Notably poor conditions were reflected for Ohio, Colorado and Texas – with all sub-50%. That’s a rough start for those states. Colorado and Texas are lacking soil moisture, while Ohio has been saturated. USDA’s first soybean condition rating placed 66% in the good/excellent categories, down one point from last year but one point above five-year average (actually a three-year average since the first ratings weren’t issued this week in 2022 and 2024). USDA rated 5% of the crop as poor/very poor. Ohio is off to a rough start, with only 46% rated good/excellent due to excessive spring moisture. Note: The first weekly crop condition ratings of the growing season will provide an initial benchmark for corn and soybean crop ...

Part 1 of 2 While crop production margins have been negative and subsequently the number of farm bankruptcies has climbed, there is just no where near the degree of financial crisis occurring that defined what the Ag sector went through in the 1980s.  Nationally, farm bankruptcies were 44% higher last year than in 2024, but the increase is inflated in terms of percentage from a relative low level. The farm media talks up the current financial squeeze intending to elicit sympathy from readers and the public but what it shows is the lack of appreciation for what a real farm sector economic disaster looks like. In many ways, the Ag Depression of the 1980s was the defining period of my life.   Interest rates have climbed from historical lows but are a third of what they were at their peak in the `1980s crisis. Commodity prices reflect the value of the dollar. Currently, the dollar index hits a wall near par (100). Comparatively, during the U.S. farm crisis of the 1980s, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged dramatically, peaking at 164.72 in February 1985. This represented an appreciation of roughly 80% to 95% from its mid-1980 trough, devastating American agriculture by pricing U.S. commodities out of global markets. With the US dollar that high, no foreign exchange could afford US farm goods. $3 corn US price became nearly $5 corn to export market buyers because of the currency exchange. My bet today is that with rising inflation the US dollar is likely to weaken ...

06/01/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video RINs & Repeat for Soy Oil; Corn Struggles Continue On the Grains Soybeans and soy oil strengthened overnight, with the later scoring contract highs and pushing to the highest level since November 2022 on the continuation chart. Wheat also firmed amid corrective buying, while corn struggled to find buyers, with July futures touching the lowest price since Feb. 20.As the calendar flips to June, weather and crop conditions typically dominate traders’ focus. This year, geopolitics and trade remain prominent in headlines, giving traders a split focus. Forecasts call for seasonal to slightly warmer temperatures across northern and western areas of the Corn Belt, while southern and eastern locations are expected to be cooler. Rains are likely to favor the dry western areas of the region. Meanwhile, USDA will issue its first crop condition ratings of the growing season for corn and soybeans after today’s market close, with high marks expected. RIN Prices Surge to Record Highs Soy oil futures, and soybeans by association, are being supported by record prices for Renewable Identification Number (RIN) credits. D4 biomass-based diesel and D6 conventional ethanol RINs climbed to all-time highs, underscoring growing stress within the U.S. renewable fuels market and raising compliance costs for refiners and fuel blenders.The rally reflects several converging factors. Feedstock prices for renewable diesel and biodiesel producers have remained elevated, including soyoil, animal fats and used cooking oil, increasing the cost of producing renewable fuels. Meanwhile, conventional diesel prices have remained lower relative to renewable diesel ...

This short holiday week started off like most weeks have over the last three months, with markets taking direction from crude oil. Grain futures gapped lower on Monday night after crude oil was already down sharply in response to news of a peace deal with Iran. Futures settled off their lows on Tuesday, but crude oil kept falling after that to exert pressure on the broader commodity space. The exception was soybean oil, which decoupled from crude and went on a three-day run to new highs. Soybean oil was standing out for having earlier benefitted from strength in crude oil and for now having the potential to rally further because crude oil is weakening. Lower crude oil futures, assuming they weigh on diesel fuel prices, would pinch biofuel production margins and drive up the costs of compliance with the elevated renewable volume obligations recently announced. As primary feedstock for biomass-based diesel fuel, soybean oil futures were rising in step with the D4 RIN credits that cover advanced biofuels. Soybean oil and D4 RINs rising together reflected increasing attention on shrinking RIN carryover banks and the question of whether enough gallons of biofuels can be physically produced to avoid future compliance deficits.   The bullish trend in soybean oil futures may not be enough of a force to withstand continued pullback in crude oil. Biofuel inputs likely face eventual pushback from tightening crack spreads and expectations that soybean oil prices above 80 cents per pound crosses a threshold for making imported feedstocks like ...

05/29/2026 Traders Continue to Favor Soybeans, Soy Oil Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning Market talk due to tech issues.On the Grains Soybeans and soy oil traded higher overnight, with soyoil posting contract highs. Corn and wheat failed to sustain early buyer interest and are mildly weaker. Soybeans are working on modest weekly gains, while corn and wheat are poised for sharp losses. End-of-week and end-of-month positioning will come into play today, with traders monitoring geopolitical events and weather. The U.S. and Iran have reached a preliminary deal to extend a ceasefire by 60 days and discuss the future of Tehran’s nuclear program, pending President Trump’s approval. Markets are proceeding with cautious optimism, as final wording on the memorandum of understanding hasn’t been finalized, according to Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency. The memorandum of understanding would reportedly guarantee that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is unrestricted and Iran would have to remove all mines from the strait within 30 days. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reiterated Trump’s three “red lines” required for a deal — reopening the Strait of Hormuz, Iran surrendering highly enriched uranium and ending its nuclear program. Markets anxiously wait to see if they get results ahead of the weekend, with a pickup in volatility possible as the trading week wraps up. India Bracing for Weakest Monsoon Rainfall In 11 Years This year’s monsoon rainfall is expected to total only 90% of average across India, which would make it the weakest since 2015, as El Nino conditions reduce rainfall and threaten crop production. ...

Dr Elwynn Taylor, now retired, predicted a major US drought akin to 1936 based upon an 89-year drought cycle and tree ring studies targeting 2025 in his seminars for a number of years prior to that date. Both NW IA and the US produced record yields in 2025 so Taylor was obviously wrong…right? I had pointed out that just a small deviation in an 89-year cycle would provide a window of a few years. I had asked Taylor where he expected the drought to be centered and he said Oklahoma like the last cycle. If you talked to wheat farmers in Oklahoma and Kansas right now, after they just lost their winter wheat crop, they would give a different interpretation of the severity of their being drought than farmers in Iowa would. The US as whole is in a drought as extensive and severe as in the 1930s. Wildfires are surging and the dust blowing is being tracked by satellite. Were we still using the tillage practices such as moldboard plowing like decades ago, another dust bowl would be assured under current conditions. A farmer told me last week that he did not roll his soybeans as he feared creating conditions where the dirt would blow sandblasting his crops. Strip-till, no-till and minimum till hold the soil in place. What is interesting is that the Corn-Belt/Midwest is all that is being spared from drought. Lucky us. Our crops are off to a great start again this year and typically do ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Soybeans led a round of buying in the grain and soy markets overnight. Soybeans have outperformed corn and wheat recently as traders wait to see if China emerges as a buyer of U.S. cargoes following the recent trade deal. While there's no news on that front, optimism of Chinese purchases is supporting soybean futures. The overnight strength in corn and SRW wheat is nothing more than modest corrective buying tied to the strength in soybeans. Wheat in particular faces an uphill battle as harvest activity will pick up.   Crude oil futures bounced overnight after the U.S. struck Iranian military targets for the second time this week. U.S. officials say the strikes have been defensive in nature and the ceasefire remains intact, but traders have stopped removing war premium for now.   Markets are headline driven and money flow remains the most important factor in daily trading moves, fueled by the geopolitical and trade fronts.     On the Cattle:   Cattle futures shot higher on Wednesday amid steep discounts to the respective cash markets and signs of strength this week. Cash feeders traded notably higher at auctions on Wednesday and cash fat cattle are widely expected to trade steady at worst. Feeder cattle will have actual results to guide traders, while any follow-through strength in live cattle will be based on expectations, as active cash trade isn't likely until deep in the week. ...

Be careful what you wish for.  The first part of May was unusually cool, delaying crop development and germination.  Warmer temperatures were needed.  Heat is finally catching up to the season as temperatures will be above average in as much as 80% of the Corn Belt this week.  The warmest temperatures seem centered in the Dakotas, where they will see 95 degrees.  As we look out ahead through the month of June, extreme temperatures pull back a bit, but they remain elevated by 5 degrees or more above their averages in much of the Western and Northern regions.  The Eastern Corn Belt meanwhile hovers closer to its historical temperatures.   The near-term forecast has quickly shifted drier.  How long that lasts will determine if it is a good thing or a bag thing.  I am of the belief that it is a good thing for the time being, for a couple of reasons.  First off, after receiving over 3 inches of rain on one of our farms last week, there was some light ponding, and so drier weather is needed.  What is amusing (at least to me) is that our farms fell into the US drought monitor's "abnormally dry" region.  While rain was needed, there was plenty of moisture below the surface.  Every region is obviously different, but it would appear our soil moisture reserves are full despite being considered "abnormally dry".  One of the driest areas is Western Nebraska where a client says they received 1.7" last week.  This will help, ...