CommStock Reports

From my 01/09/2026 Commstock Report: "Sometimes it can be a mistake to view things from your own backyard but based upon our 2025 Northwest Iowa farm production results, we would not expect USDA to reduce corn/soybean yields much in the January report. Given the drastic reduction in the number of USDA bean counters employed by the department, will this impact report accuracy? If not, most will argue USDA had too many employees. We have seen data on 2025 crop quality that we think is reliable confirming that the long growing season benefited test wights and grain quality. There was enough water to finish the crops. The longer the fill the more test weight that plants can pack into the kernels. Our 108-109-day hybrids produced a farm average of 270 bpa when the FSA measured the bins. That is the yield that gets turned into crop insurance. That was a record farm yield so will increase our average APH. It is in line with the topline USDA record yield." And so it was with USDA increasing the corn yield to 186.5 bpa and leaving the soybean yield at 53 bpa. A bear market resumes.   Another record farm yield is unlikely for us in 2026. I even fear that the drought of 2025 may be a year late.   The SOI can't seem to make up its mind with a head fake toward El Nino last month before making another run at La Nina. I will be basing my view for future weather for this summer ...

01/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Firmer Awaiting Market-Moving Report Data On the Grains Wheat led a round of buying in the grain and soy markets overnight as traders await USDA’s barrage of reports at 11 a.m. CT and are keeping a keen watch on several outside market developments. Gold and silver jumped to new highs overnight, while the U.S. dollar retreated as federal prosecutors have opened a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powel, which revived concerns over the central bank’s independence. Traders are also monitoring deadly protests in Iran as President Trump mulls potential options, while also watching the situations with Venezuela and Greenland and ongoing attacks by Russia and Ukraine.This is one of the biggest report days of the year, as USDA will release its Annual Production Summary, WASDE Report, Quarterly Grain Stocks Report and Winter Wheat Seedings. The potential market movers are the final U.S. corn and soybean production figures and Dec. 1 stocks, which will drive changes to U.S. ending stocks. The remainder of the data is ancillary and will be glossed over, though will help provide price direction longer-term. Recent History of USDA’s Final Yields Corn USDA has lowered its final corn yield two of the past five years and five of the past 10 from the November estimate. So… there’s no better than a 50/50 chance of a reduction from a recent historical perspective. But the reductions have outpaced gains, with the five-year average -0.8 bu. and the 10-year average -0.6 bu. When accounting for ...

Grains are called slightly firmer at the open with direction dependent on outside financial markets before attention turns to the Monday crop report. In the Headlines Last week ended with more trade talk about Chinese soybean purchases that would now be subject for confirmation starting Monday morning. The previous week also finished with similar rumors of China business but then flash sales came out lighter than the pre-advertised totals, stoking further questioning of whether Chinese buyers were skirting the daily reporting system. U.S. soybean sales to China since the fall are thought close to the heavily scrutinized target of 12 million metric tons, but the season is also very close to when Brazilian soybeans will be ready for China to choose from. Lately holding tighter with import permits, the Chinese government will conduct a soybean auction this week. Friday was an opinion release day for the Supreme Court that was expected possible to include a ruling on President Trump's reciprocal tariff authority, but no such decision was announced. Speculation is now that the matter will be addressed in another release day coming this Wednesday. Event contract odds from Polymarket were at 26 percent for the tariffs to be upheld. More uncertain is how far the Supreme Court would go in requiring refunds for tariffs already collected since last April. Iran is in a third week of public protests that have triggered the government to shut off telephone and internet services as security forces fire on citizens. President Trump said that "the USDA stands ready ...

There has been much ado about the institutional fund rebalancing period that kicked off on Thursday and stretches a handful of sessions. The related market impact was most present in equities, where high-flying tech companies like Nvidia and Apple saw selling pressure while sectors that were more downtrodden in 2025, such as energy and consumer staples, found buying interest. In the commodity futures market, focus was on the rotational trade in gold and silver. Early Thursday weakness for the metals may have involved a measure of front-running by traders into the rebalancing window; indeed, the effect of institutional selling seemed evident as gold and silver futures broke lower in the immediate lead up to their 12:30 central settlement time. Friday morning's metal price strength suggested that the portfolio reallocation was a lesser influence against inputs like the jobs report and compared to larger flows of capital that were unconstrained by position weighting rules.   If anything, fund rebalancing at the start of the year invites a reassessment of the market outlook for 2026 based on possible lessons from what went up and what went down in 2025. For the metals to continue where they left off last year means other top-performing commodities like cattle or coffee could resume their upward trends going forward; however, a new year will also not stop certain markets from eventually flipping in the opposite directions, like cocoa did, finishing with triple-digit percentage gains in 2024 before coming down in 2025, or orange juice, which sustained a record ...

01/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Demand, Risk Events & Pre-Report Positioning On the Grains Soybeans rebounded overnight to continue to back-and-forth price action since Monday’s strong gains. Corn and winter wheat markets traded lower overnight, while spring wheat was narrowly mixed. Corn, soybeans and the winter wheat markets are poised for strong weekly gains, while spring wheat is near unchanged for the week. Trader attention today will be on whether USDA announces any more daily soybean sales to China (336,000 MT on Tuesday and 132,000 MT on Thursday), key outside market risk events (see item at the end of this section) and positioning ahead of Monday’s USDA reports. Following are pre-report expectations for the Jan. 12 USDA Annual Production Summary, U.S. and global ending stocks, Grain Stocks and U.S winter wheat seedings based on Reuters surveys. The potential market movers are the final U.S. corn and soybean production figures and Dec. 1 stocks, which will drive changes to U.S. ending stocks. The remainder of the data is ancillary and will be glossed over, though will help provide price direction longer-term. Ag Trade Starts FY 2026 With Smallest Deficit in Nearly 2 Years U.S. exports rose 2.6% to a record in October, while imports declined 3.2% to the lowest since January 2024. That sharply narrowed the U.S. trade deficit to $29.4 billion, the smallest since October 2009, as implementation of tariffs led to significant swings in trade flows. For agriculture, exports totaled $15.6 billion against imports of $16 billion for a deficit of $424 million. That ...

Sometimes it can be a mistake to view things from your own backyard but based upon our 2025 Northwest Iowa farm production results, we would not expect USDA to reduce corn/soybean yields much in the January report. Given the drastic reduction in the number of USDA bean counters employed by the department, will this impact report accuracy? If not, most will argue USDA had too many employees. We have seen data on 2025 crop quality that we think is reliable confirming that the long growing season benefited test weights and grain quality. There was enough water to finish the crops. The longer the fill the more test weight that plants can pack into the kernels. Our 108-109-day hybrids produced a farm average of 270 bpa when the FSA measured the bins. That is the yield that gets turned into crop insurance. That was a record farm yield so will increase our average APH. It is in line with the topline USDA record yield. We were 70% corn so that carried our soybeans. That means that our corn yield was high enough to cover costs with a small margin. Whatever else that we get from the government in payments adds to 2025 profitability.   2025 produced K-shaped economic results for farmers based upon crop yields and livestock production. Cattle/hog production was profitable so topped the K. Cattle producers were benefiting from historical price improvement right up until literally the moment in mid-October that president Trump told them cattle/beef prices were "too high". Supply ...

01/08/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Focus on Demand, USDA’s Upcoming Reports On the Grains Soybeans and corn modestly favored the downside in quiet overnight trade, while wheat futures traded higher for most of the session. There are two clear focal points for grain traders – Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans and preparations for USDA barrage of reports next Monday. A broader market focus remains on geopolitical happenings in Venezuela and Russia/Ukraine. On the demand front, USDA will release export sales for the week ended Jan. 1 at 7:30 a.m. CT as it is now caught up on those reports. Traders are also anticipating some daily soybean sales to China. Following are pre-report expectations for the Jan. 12 USDA Annual Production Summary, U.S. and global ending stocks, Grain Stocks and U.S winter wheat seedings based on Reuters surveys. The potential market movers are the final U.S. corn and soybean production figures and Dec. 1 stocks. On the Cattle:  Live cattle and feeders posted sharp losses on Wednesday as traders took some profits out of markets that were overly extended to the upside, especially feeders. Cash feeder cattle prices continued to show impressive strength, which should underpin futures, though this market has repeatedly proven money flow is a powerful force. Part of the pressure on cattle futures was tied to a report stating Mexico announced a zero-tariff import quota for Brazilian beef, arguing that would negatively impact U.S. beef exports. Mexico is the third largest market for U.S. beef by volume, so more Brazilian beef exports to ...

Part 2 of 2 There is no military in the world as advanced as the US military but China is as close enough to being second to make them a serious threat. China would have to be given the edge militarily if the battle is fought in its home court region where they have the supply line advantage in any extended conflict. China does not want to go to war with the US and visa-versa but each have geopolitical aims that can conflict with the other. China sees control of the first island chain as paramount to its security, no different than the US does the Caribbean. We have our Monroe Doctrine and Xi Jinping has made it clear that they see Taiwan as part of China and confirm the South China Sea being named as correctly as is our Gulf of America as respective spheres of dominance. Beijing chafes when the US Navy transits the strait of Taiwan… about how we would feel if Chinese warships transited the Panama Canal and then the Florida Keys.   There is an imbalance here that president Trump intends to maintain or use as a concession to trade for something if that opportunity arises. It was unacceptable to president Trump that China owned Panamanian ports and was expanding its influence in our hemisphere through investment. This contested freedom of transit extends to the Arctic as the Northwest Passage opens for business. That is one reason that the push is on for us to acquire Greenland before ...

01/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Expects More Confirmed China Soybean Buys On the Grains Soybeans strengthened overnight but did not take out Tuesday’s intraday highs. Corn and wheat also traded higher overnight. Traders are awaiting confirmation of more Chinese purchases. USDA reported daily sales of 336,000 MT of soybeans to China on Tuesday, but there is talk total volumes may have approached 1 MMT, so more USDA announcements should be coming. Some states released winter wheat conditions on Tuesday. Notably, the good/excellent rating for Kansas dropped 10 points from the beginning of December to 60%. Brazil’s Export Engine Revs Up Brazilian exports reached $348.7 billion in 2025, a 3.5% increase from 2024 and the highest figure on record. China remained Brazil’s largest purchaser, with total exports up 6% from a year prior. Soybean shipments reached a record 108.68 MMT, up 11.7% from 2024, driven by a record 85.4 MMT to China. Corn exports rose by 4 MMT to 41.7 MMT. Soymeal exports increased to a record 23.07 MMT, up 230,000 MT from 2024. Beef exports totaled a record of nearly $17 billion in 2025. On the Cattle:  Feeder cattle continued to charge higher with strong gains again on Tuesday, despite being overbought. Common sense would suggest futures will run into some profit-taking, though strengthening cash feeder cattle prices remain supportive, keeping money flowing into the long side of the market. January futures finished Tuesday nearly $4 below the real-time index. Gains in live cattle were more tempered as traders wait on direction from the ...

I don't see the bottom cycle in grains as being over yet.  That doesn't mean we can't have short term rallies, but long-term obstacles continue to linger.  Favorable weather has created an oversupply both in the US and abroad.  The US and Brazil have produced bumper crops in back-to-back years setting new production records.  Brazil's 25/26 season is far from written, but most of the crop outlook there will be determined by the end of January.  That means we have less than 4 weeks of critical growing weather before we will have a pretty good idea on how big of a crop they will have.  Even low-end of current estimates would mean a new record in terms of Brazil's soybean production.   For the moment, it seems like the markets are looking for a repeat of last year.  August of 2024 saw the corn market bottom before rallying in February.  August of 2025 also made a seasonal bottom, and since then has slowly been grinding higher.  The corn market is moving in an upward channel that will eventually need to break out one way or the other.  I bought ten-cent calls on this recent break looking for a gradual move higher.  The closer we get to March, the more focus will shift towards acres at which point it stands to reason we should see some reduction in 26 corn acres.   That being said, considering no crop is profitable right now, corn acre reduction will likely be limited as it has better chances at ...

01/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Awaiting Confirmation of China’s Soybean Shopping Spree On the Grains Soybeans paused overnight after Monday’s strong gains, as traders await confirmation of reported Chinese buying. Corn and wheat modestly favored the downside in quiet, two-sided overnight trade. China reportedly went on a soybean shopping spree on Monday, securing at least 10 cargoes of U.S. supplies for spring delivery. Key will be whether USDA confirms that business via daily sales announcements today or Wednesday. Recent reports of China buying U.S. soybeans haven’t been corroborated via daily sales announcements. As of Dec. 25, USDA had confirmed 6.422 MMT of soybean purchases by China, with another 136,000 MT of daily sales on Dec. 30, which would put the total at 6.558 MMT. Of that total, only 794,446 MT had been shipped. While outstanding sales have ramped up, exports continue to lag well behind recent years. There were also 3.060 MMT of soybean sales on the books to unknown destinations as of Dec. 25, with another 231,000 MT of daily sales since then. A good portion of those unknown export sales are also to China. USDA showed none of the unknown sales had been exported as of Dec. 25. On the Cattle:  February live cattle slipped a little on Monday after a gap-higher start, while deferred months posted moderate gains. Last week’s average cash cattle price rose as packers surprisingly chased after supplies. Given the February contract’s $4-plus premium to last week’s average cash price, traders will be cautious buyers as they wait ...

  Part 1 of 2 Ian Bremmer noted a significant surge in military conflicts around the world in 2025 with over 60 occurring. Many are in places that Americans have never heard of in Africa, our southern hemisphere and Southeast Asia. For all of the talk about ‘America First’, the president sure likes to get involved. Depending on the conflict, the US has been both the peacemaker and combatant. Bremmer attributes it to a breakdown in the world order and institutions. It has deep economic ramifications as nations and alliances, large and small, are spending $blns on armaments…directing resources away from social development such as education and health. The signs are that this trend toward conflicts will deepen in 2026. There are stories every day telling events happening in the Ukraine war. Depending upon who is telling them, some are true, some are false and others are meant to be misleading. What I am about to relate to you comes from my network of trusted sources. Let’s start at where the state of the war in Ukraine is at the beginning 2026. Russia is losing this war but Ukraine is not winning. The Russian army has lost 50,000 motorized transport vehicles during the nearly 4-years of war so that it is literally using donkeys and horses to transport supplies to the front. They cannot replace losses and the quality of its forces is degrading. The state of Russian infantry units is deplorable with enormous casualties and bottom scraping morale. They are taking new ...

01/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Corrective Buying Supports Grains Overnight On the Grains Soybeans led a round of corrective buying to kick off the first full trading week of the new year after falling to the lowest level since mid-October during last Friday’s low-volume holiday session. Corn and wheat also traded higher on corrective rebounds overnight. Much of the focus will be on export demand as traders wait to see if USDA confirms any soybean business by China. USDA will release export sales data for the week ended Dec. 25 at 7:30 a.m. CT. That will be the last of the backlogged export sales data. On Thursday, USDA will be back to a normal schedule with weekly export sales data. Brazilian weather is another focus, with conditions remaining generally favorable. Forecasts trend drier across central, eastern and northern production areas over the next two weeks, but there isn’t any threatening heat in the outlook and harvest of early-maturing soybeans is underway. Geopolitics are also being monitored closely, with the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro the latest development, though the crude oil market reacted modestly overnight. Meanwhile, Russia continues to carry out strikes on Ukraine, while the world waits to see if the two sides can reach a peace deal. On the Cattle:  Live cattle and feeders posted strong gains last Friday on support from ideas the border will remain shut to Mexican cattle imports for longer than what was expected after Mexican authorities confirmed two new cases of the New World screwworm ...

Grains are called to open on firmer footing as more volume returns, but strong conviction will be lacking in the lead up to the Jan. 12 crop report. In the Headlines Weekend headlines were dominated by the U.S. military's capture of Venezuela's contested president Nicolas Maduro. President Trump authorized the operation to extract Maduro and bring him to New York to stand trial on gang and drug trafficking charges. Trump was noted for saying that the U.S. would "run" Venezuela during a transition that would include the "very large U.S. oil companies" going in. To "get the oil flowing" again in Venezuela, as President Trump stated was his goal, would likely lean bearish the energy market over the long-run, although the uncertainty about what's next can provide short-term support. Venezuela, with the world's largest known oil reserves, has only been putting out about 3 million barrels per day versus the U.S. producing nearly 14 million barrels per day. Venezuela is one of the five original members of OPEC, which this weekend decided to hold its oil output targets unchanged, as expected. A new tax year is here to raise the question of how much farmer selling is set to commence. January is historically the most active month of marketing outside of October for soybeans and November for corn. The USDA estimates that about 13 percent of the crops are sold in January for both corn and soybeans. Trader positions data suggest that more soybeans were sold by now than usual with help from the ...

On The Grains:   Welcome to 2026! I don't typically feel any different from one year to the next, except older, but that's hardly unique to me. I do think it's fun to look forward to what the new year holds, so here are some key points: This year will be the 250th Anniversary of this great nation, we will host a World Cup in North America, and if everything goes right, Artemis II will give us a NASA mission to(wards) the moon. I am sure we will get much more than that, all of which you will likely be able to bet on through Kalshi. Now onto the markets…I have to say that today is the most "Monday" feeling Friday in recent memory, although the ag trade was anything but lethargic. The grains began trading in 2026 under considerable pressure, with corn approaching the bottom end of its trading range, soybeans continuing their freefall, and wheat giving up nearly a nickel at the open. As the day wore on, corn got pretty quiet, wheat worked its way back to about even for the day, and soybeans were able to find some footing, gaining back around 7 cents after being down almost double digits. Most of the grains are approaching either their contract lows or recent lows, which should provide some support next week when we get back to a normal trading schedule. We did get USDA confirmation of a sale of 132,000 MT of corn to South Korea before the ...

12/31/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video 2025 Ending with Grains Under Pressure On the Grains Soybeans are facing follow through selling after filling the continuation chart gap at $10.45 1/2 on Tuesday. March soybeans are leaning on support at the Dec. 19 low of $10.57 1/4, which was the overnight low as of early this morning. Violation of that level could entice more chart-based selling. Corn and wheat futures are also lower. Corn has moved from the top of its two-month trading range last Friday to the bottom of it this morning. Today marks the start of the delivery process against January soy futures. Registered deliveries totaled 1,062 contracts for soybeans and 7 contracts for soyoil. There were no deliveries against January soymeal futures. New Year’s Schedule Today: Grain and livestock markets trade normal hours. Thursday: All markets are closed for New Year’s Day. Friday: No overnight grain trade. Grain and livestock markets open at 8:30 a.m. CT and will trade normal daytime hours. Government offices: Closed Jan. 1. Commstock reports: AM report only today; PM broker comments only on Friday. Happy New Year from Commstock Investments! More Backdated Export Sales, Confirmed Chinese Purchases USDA will release export sales data for the week ended Dec. 18 at 7:30 a.m. CT. Focus will be on soybean sales to China. USDA on Tuesday announced daily soybean sales of 136,000 MT to China and 231,000 MT to unknown destinations. Based on what export sources indicated, there should be some additional daily sales this morning. Confirmed export commitments to China through Dec. 11 plus daily ...

"I have never had a bad Christmas." That thought struck me this Christmas. I have been lucky. Christmas's past have always been good memories for me. When growing up we lived on a farm less than 3 miles away from my grandparents' farm. We went there for Christmas. Their house was one of those Montgomery Ward catalogs ordered put-together homes. It was actually pretty good as, though it has had a remodel, it is still there today. I was reminded recently how much I looked forward as a kid to mail order catalogs, Sears was my favorite. I would dog-ear the corners of pages of what I wanted for Christmas. I was spoiled as I often got it. That Grandpa and Grandma were both German and she made goose for Christmas. Had a phone call with our German friends in Dresden earlier this week and they were having goose there for Christmas dinner, saying that it was a German tradition. I may have to find a goose for next year. Even during the Ag depression of the 1980s we managed to have a good Christmas.   The other set of grandparents came to our house, staying with us, when I was young for Christmas. He worked as a telephone installation technician constructing telephone offices for ITT. They would move from town to town wherever the company needed him to put the guts in a new telephone office…all over the country and Puerto Rico. They would come home to Iowa whenever the company had ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Soybeans and SRW wheat are mildly firmer early this morning, while corn and HRW wheat are near unchanged as grain markets try to stabilize after Monday's selloff. Fresh news remains limited, with much of the focus on ongoing efforts by President Trump to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine that continue to face hurdles. Much of the price action in the grain markets are likely to be year-end positioning in lower-volume holiday trade.   Brazilian Firms To Abandon Amazon Soy Moratorium   Some of the world's largest soybean trading firms are preparing to abandon Brazil's Amazon Soy Moratorium, a voluntary agreement credited with sharply slowing deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, as they seek to preserve lucrative tax incentives in Brazil's top farm state, Reuters reported.   The potential exit is driven by a new law in Mato Grosso that, starting in January, strip tax incentives from companies that participate in conservation programs stricter than Brazilian law.   Major traders that signed the 2006 moratorium — including ADM, Bunge, Cargill, Cofco, and Brazil's Amaggi — have facilities in Mato Grosso that benefited from state tax breaks. Sources told Reuters that most firms are likely to prioritize retaining incentives rather than remaining in the moratorium, a move that could effectively end the pact.   Environmental groups warn that unraveling the agreement would have consequences well beyond soy, and Brazil's federal government has challenged the Mato Grosso law in court, arguing ...

One day soon, shortly after the New Year, the US Supreme Court is going to rule on the issue as to whether the tariffs that president Trump has imposed on goods imported into the US are valid under executive power without further Congressional approval. Tariffs are taxes and one of the reasons why the USA rebelled from Great Britain was "taxation without representation". The US Congress is considered to be the representative legislative body in the US. The Smoot-Hawley Tariffs of 1930 were enacted first by Congress and then sent to the President to be signed. The GOP controlled Congress has not challenged Trump's use of tariffs. Tariffs are imposed on importers but their cost is passed on so Americans ultimately pay them. Congress retains the power to tax and tariffs are a form of taxation. They are arguably the largest tax increase ever imposed in decades and Congress watched from the sidelines. Congress has not challenged Trump's tariffs due to successful political intimidation.   Congress is waiting on the Supreme Court to provide them some courage. There are existing statutes enacted by Congress that allow the president to impose tariffs but they are narrow in scope. Trump's tariffs are broad without limitation appearing to stretch credibility and credulity. Most Trump tariffs used purported authority from the International Emergency Powers Act (IEEPA). Congress does cede power to the president in an emergency… and suddenly everything became designated an emergency by this administration. A ruling against use of the IEEPA would result in ...

12/29/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Drift Lower in Light Holiday Trade On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures are trading lower after showing some strength early in the overnight session. Corn futures are pulling back while holding in the upper end of their three-month range, while soybeans and wheat are trading above recent lows. All is quiet on the China soybean front, with little buzz about purchases of U.S. cargoes and no further news of upcoming auctions of state-owned stockpiles. Brazilian weather remains generally favorable. On the geopolitical front, President Trump said he made “a lot of progress” in talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy over a possible peace deal but that it might take a few weeks to get it done. Brazilian Weather to Remain Mostly Favorable Scattered rains and above-normal temps are forecast across Brazil over the next week to 10 days. Rains are expected to be heaviest across central and east-central areas, while light rainfall is likely in south-central and far southern Brazil. Overall, rainfall and soil moisture conditions are expected to remain generally favorable, though the combination of light rains and high temps will be watched in southern production areas. Winter Weather Warning Across Upper Midwest Much of the upper Midwest remains under a blizzard or winter storm warning as snows and high winds move across the region. Hazardous driving conditions and bitter cold temps will slow movement of grain and livestock. On the Cattle:  Live cattle and feeders posted moderate to strong gains on Friday, while holding within last ...

Post-Christmas Lull   On The Grains: I hope everyone was fortunate enough to enjoy some family, food, and fellowship over the Christmas holiday. It feels like an odd welcome back with the weekend here already. Trade today was light, as expected, and most of the price discovery was done early on in all of the agricultural markets. Corn made a spike up at the open and then fell pretty dramatically before a modest close with the early 2026 contracts closing lower and the deferred contracts only slightly higher. Corn did make a push higher towards some recent highs in the days leading up to Christmas. Having also closed above the 200-day moving average for the last four sessions, next week will tell whether corn is setting up for a rally or whether this week was just thanks to St Nick. Soybeans were also enthusiastic at the open, gapping higher before giving back half of their gains from two days ago. After rebounding just shy of a continuation gap fill, this close will leave more questions around whether they are poised to make a rally. They are still very oversold but only 10 cents above their recent lows. Wheat was mixed but quiet as it continues to watch conflict in the Black Sea region, and continues to face the challenges of high global supply. Weather forecasts for South America continue to show overall good growing conditions for Brazil and Argentina.   March Corn:         450'0  -1'0 January Beans:      1058'6 -4'4 March Oats:         308'0  +4'0   March Spring Wheat:     579'2  -1'0 March ...

12/24/2025 Merry Christmas! Grains Strengthen Overnight Morning Market Talk There will not be a morning market talk video today.On the Grains Winter wheat markets and soybeans led price gains overnight, trading on their session highs early this morning. Corn followed to the upside. Gold, silver and platinum all posted record highs overnight. Geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region and with Venezuela remain elevated. Wheat is also supported by heat/dryness in U.S. winter wheat areas along with forecasts calling for bitter cold in Russia’s main wheat regions into early January. Russia set the grain export quota at 20 MMT from Feb. 15 to June 30, the bulk of which will be wheat. That’s nearly double the 10.6 MMT quota from last year, though corn is included this year. Russia forecasts grain exports at 53 MMT to 55 MMT for 2025-26, in line with the five-year average. Christmas Schedule Today: Grain markets close at 12:05 CT; livestock markets close at 12:15 CT. Thursday: All markets are closed for Christmas. Friday: No overnight grain trade. Grain and livestock markets open at 8:30 a.m. CT and will trade normal daytime hours. Government offices: Closed Dec. 24-26. Commstock reports: AM report only today; PM broker comments only on Friday. Merry Christmas from Commstock Investments! USDA Paints Slightly Less Bleak Outlook for Ag Trade USDA modestly raised its outlook for U.S. agricultural exports in fiscal year (FY) 2026, while trimming the projected trade deficit. However, the report again provided virtually no narrative commentary or analytical discussion. USDA now forecasts FY 2026 agricultural exports at $173.0 billion, up from $169.0 ...

Food supply chain labor is being deported along with the criminals. Many are self-deporting after seeing ICE do their work which was what was intended. Others have taken a lower profile as enforcement makes the workplace an unsafe place for them. ICE has yet to focus down on packing plants. With over $100 bln in funding, ICE is just getting started. ICE started out $1 bln over budget as well as using diverted FBI agents and military personnel to immigration enforcement that are funded elsewhere. 2026 should be a big year for them.  I suppose farmers can buy legal workers for $100,000 each like Microsoft? That number is being capped and the countries eligible to bring workers from are rapidly shrinking by executive edict. Food leads the price inflation and with tightening labor resources will continue to rise. These workers do a lot of essential jobs that there are no legal workers to employ for. 40-50% 0f farm workers and 16% of food supply system workers overall are undocumented. They also represent 21% of child care workers, 10-20% of construction workers, 7-9% of hospitality workers and 6% each of the healthcare industry and transportation workers. They improve US workforce demographics with a reputation of showing up and working hard. Undocumented workers are overwhelmingly in their prime working years (79 percent aged 25-54). Despite high employment (95 percent), only 53 percent of undocumented workers have health insurance coverage. Over half (52 percent) have been in the country for at least 10 ...

12/23/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Quiet with Eye on Black Sea Region On the Grains Grain trade was quiet overnight, though buyers are starting to surface in corn, soybeans and winter wheat markets early this morning. Traders are keeping a watch on rising tensions in the Black Sea region, while waiting for another batch of backlogged weekly export sales and any potential daily soybean sales to China. Russia increased attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure overnight, including the port region of Odesa, striking a civilian vessel carrying soybeans. The Ukrainian Grain Association said, “Ukraine is currently experiencing significant problems in the logistics of grain exports due to constant Russian terrorist attacks on critical infrastructure. Railways and ports cannot operate at full capacity due to damage to their infrastructure, electricity shortages and constant outages.” Meanwhile, a cold blast is forecast for late this week across most of Russia’s major wheat production area that bears watching. Conditions have been warm so far this winter. Much of the region doesn’t have snow cover and hardiness of the crop is reduced. More Backlogged Weekly Export Sales USDA will release export sales for the week ended Dec. 11 at 7:30 a.m. CT. Corn export sales are expected to remain strong, while the data should also confirm large Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans. On the Cattle:  Cattle futures traded higher on Monday, led by feeder cattle. Cash feeder cattle prices continued their recent strong gains on Monday amid solid demand and a reduced number of auctions. Cash fat cattle trade was quiet, ...

Illicit drugs are bad. Almost everyone agrees with that except maybe for those who use them and those who sell them to those that use them. Illicit drug use is like an infection of our society that doesn’t heal. If use is expansive enough it can make the entire country sick and as with most infections, if untreated, can be fatal. The stats show that over 22,000 Americans will die of a cocaine overdose and over three times that many will have died from fentanyl in 2025. The number of both of those deaths were down from previous years so that even the drug users are dealing with the lethality of their addiction. President Trump's policies closing the southern border, declaring drug cartels as terrorist organizations and using the military to attack drug trafficking routes in the Caribbean have had some success in disrupting the drug trade. Overall, these actions have been viewed positively by Americans.   The primary production, processing and transport of cocaine is from Columbia, Venezuela and other close regional partners. Columbia’s government has battled its drug trade while Venezuela’s government has welcomed it, giving it sanctuary, gaining a revenue stream from it. It is one of several reasons why the US has targeted Venezuela’s president Nickolas Maduro and why the Nobel Peace Prize went to Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Machado. In an act of intimidation, president Trump authorized the destruction of small-boat drug runners in the Caribbean with extreme prejudice, sharing videos of the strikes with the public…except ...