CommStock Reports

08/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grains Pause to Catch Their Breath On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat pulled back a little overnight as markets paused to catch their breath after a week of strong gains. Key today will continue to be money flow, specially whether funds see the overnight weakness as a buying opportunity and continue to chase the long side of the market. Day 4 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Better Corn Yields but Still Lacking Pro Farmer released results from Day 4 of Crop Tour for Iowa and Minnesota on Thursday evening. Iowa: Ear counts were down versus year-ago and the three-year average… so was grain length. That led to a yield of 194.0 that was well under year-ago but up from the three-year average. The eastern side of the state was expected to pull up the average from what was found in western Iowa… and it did – just not as much as anticipated. On average, Crop Tour is historically 7.4 bu. too low in Iowa. If you add that historical miss to this year’s yield, it signals a 201.4 bu. per acre yield – well below USDA’s August estimate of 216 bu. per acre. An Iowa yield reduction from USDA is coming. Iowa bean pod counts were down modestly from year-ago but up from the three-year average. As has been the case in every state, soil moisture was up notably from last year and average. There are plenty of pods to produce a big soybean yield, especially with the ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/20/2026 We are Cool…Right? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The question was associated with a meme on Truth Social posted by the President with the question directed coming from Kim Jung Un. I don't subscribe to Truth Social but the more outlandish memes posted there get around which is what he intended. To me his memes remind me of Mad Magazine which subscribers of my generation could relate to. The magazine began the year that I was born, 1952 and saw it heyday in the 1970's. Topics that used to be Mad Magazine material are pretty common stuff today. Is there a historical ally that our president has not offended yet in some way? Give him time. Long-term relationships and security commitments have been tossed out like a game of pick-um-up sticks where we hardly know where to start now to reorganize the US place in the stack of the world. Despite his meme, the president bristled at being later questioned about it. For reference, Kim Jung Un is our enemy. So is Putin. Kim is sending another 30,000 NK troops to aid Putin in his war with Ukraine. The Trump administration's official position recently flipped from pro-Putin to pro-Ukraine in its bias for who wins the war but is more window dressing than actual support. There has got to be something in it for Trump and he got his agreement for a share of Ukraine's rare ...

08/20/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video $5 Corn Returns On the Grains: December corn futures rose to $5 overnight for the first time since May 19 and bulls have the May high at $5.06 1/2 in their sights. November soybeans are within 15 cents of the July high at $12.56 1/2. Those respective highs will be key tests for the strength of the latest wave of fund buying. While some suggest markets are trying to ration use amid falling supply expectations, spreads tell a different story. The conflicting message suggests this is little more than a money flow game. Wheat futures have seen buyer interest build through the overnight session and are now solidly higher early this morning. December SRW futures pushed to their highest price since July 24. That day’s contract high at $7.28 1/4 stands as a key test for bulls; it’s currently about 25 cents away. Day 3 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Better Corn but Still Disappointing Pro Farmer released results from Day 3 of Crop Tour for Illinois and the western three crop districts in Iowa (1,4 and 7) on Wednesday evening. Illinois: The trend of disappointing ear counts was broken – kind of. Ear counts were down marginally from both year-ago and the three-year average, but not nearly to the degree that they were in the four previous Crop Tour states. It was grain length that was a bigger story in Illinois. That pulled the Illinois corn yield estimate well below year-ago and the 2023-2025 average. In fact, it ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/19/2026 Corn Versus Cows-South Dakota’s Great Mistake PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update We expect "the market" to fix low prices but sometimes low prices are created by "the market" too. I think South Dakota is a real-life example of how market signals can get short-circuited. Today we have a cow-shortage and a corn-surplus in the US and South Dakota is part of the reason why. Over recent years a lot of acres in South Dakota that used to be ranchland with cows is now growing corn instead. $7 corn proved to be an illusion (bait) that brought marginal acres into corn production but now they are tied up and will not easily be converted back. As you travel east to west across the state, fewer South Dakota corn growers have the soil type to grow corn profitably so are consistently losing money as marginal producers kept in business by crop insurance and USDA ACHs. Ranchers there however, are highly profitable. South Dakotans also made the mistake of rejecting CO2 pipelines which would add demand to the corn market by reducing the ethanol carbon score. They plowed up productive grassland removing cows needed to produce beef that there is a shortage of and grow corn instead. They compounded that mistake by blocking corn demand growth (CO2 pipeline) while struggling to survive on crop insurance indemnities and bailout ACHs. I went to school at SDSU and they taught ...

08/19/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Money Chasing Long Soybeans Again On the Grains: Soybeans rallied sharply overnight but haven’t taken out Tuesday’s intraday highs yet. If that happens, a new wave of buying could be unveiled. Aside from Crop Tour results, traders are monitoring Chinese demand as USDA announced another daily new-crop sale of two cargoes on Tuesday. The question now becomes will Chinese buying continue with November futures back well above $12? Remember… China’s state-owned firms don’t care nearly as much about price as commercial firms. Soybeans being purchased now are going into state reserves and will be auctioned at a later date – a year or more from now. What seems pricey now may be cheap when the soybeans are eventually sold onto the Chinese domestic market down the road. Of course, the flip could be the case, too. Corn futures are modestly higher this morning, following soybeans. Wheat markets are mostly lower, though SRW contracts are trying to firm. Day 2 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Results: Rinse and Repeat from Day 1 Pro Farmer released results from Day 2 of Crop Tour for Indiana and Nebraska on Tuesday evening. It was basically rinse and repeat from the first day, with disappointing ear counts highlighting the sample results. Grain length in both states was also down from last year and the three-average, but the story for corn through the first two days is definitely lower ear counts. Soybean pod counts also declined from the 2025 Crop Tour results and the ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/18/2026 History Favors Additional Yield Cuts….But??? PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update I have always noticed how the general market sentiment is that August weather means very little to corn production as it is predominately "made" in the month of July. I have never understood that. To be clear, July weather has an oversized impact on yields, but the trade often acts like the crop has already been harvested and is in the bin. August weather can easily have 30+ bpa impact on final yields as both temperature and rainfall help the fill. Look no further than last year where yields were headed for 188.8+ bpa at the start of August, only to go through terrible conditions the second half of August. USDA was forced to backtrack, dropping yields 2.3 bpa by January due to disease and drought. Last week we pointed out that history favors the USDA decreasing yields between August and January. To be more precise, in the last ten years, the USDA decreased yields in seven out of the last ten years between August to January. So while chance favors a yield reduction, there are no guarantees. The 2023/24 season saw yields climb 2.2 bpa from the August to January report. The market did not make a low until November of that year before offering a partial recovery. The biggest surprise was in the 2017/18 season where yields were increased by 7.1 bpa from August to January. ...

08/18/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Adding More Risk Premium On the Grains Soybeans led a round of price strength in the grain and soy markets overnight, with the November contract pushing to the highest since July 27. December corn futures reached their highest since May 20. Both were boosted by a drop in crop condition ratings and Day 1 results from the Pro Farmer Crop Tour. Today, traders will get reports and images from fields in Indiana and Nebraska, with results of those states released tonight. The stakes are getting higher as Crop Tour pushes into the bigger producing states. Wheat traders continue to monitor the Black Sea situation. There’s not much new news on that front. Attacks between Ukraine and Russia is ongoing and grain export capacity has been compromised. Whether its crop- or geopolitical-based, traders are adding risk premiums to grain and soy futures. Day 1 Pro Farmer Crop Tour Produces Some Surprises… And Varied Conditions Pro Farmer released results from Day 1 of Crop Tour for South Dakota and Ohio on Monday evening. South Dakota featured rapidly maturing crops and impacts from heat and moisture stress earlier in the growing season. Ohio had immature crops and too much soil moisture after last week’s heavy storms that also uncovered some crop damage – and some that’s likely yet to come because of saturated soils. South Dakota: Last year’s crops in the state were stellar and this year was likely never going to be a repeat. Given the heat and moisture stress, ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/17/2026 Like I Wrote…Too Hot-Too Long PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Our Kansas staff tells us that the state is toast. A stress degree day is added to the total when high temps surpass 86^. 140 or higher accumulated SDDs impairs the yield potential so that a trendline yield becomes aspirational. The accumulated SDDs for Kansas would confirm their bleak assessment. This is the worst of the worst. Anything not under a running center pivot is not green. Nebraska and the Dakotas are similar but with regions in them that escaped, while nowhere in Kansas did. They are now hoping that it will rain to put some moisture in the soil for planting winter wheat soon. Iowa planted twice as many acres to corn as did Kansas and was the USDA’s top state corn yield projecting 216 bpa compared to 210 bpa in 2025. Most corn production in Iowa is in the northern 2/3rds of the state and there is a rare station that is reporting SDDs above 140. It would appear that Iowa survived the heat. I have no problem with the USDA August yield estimate. The recording station closest to our farms in Clay County reported 127 SDDs. Our farms in Clay County Iowa have been on the wet-dry line where crops east of us had wet conditions and crops west of us were too dry. I actually thought that our accumulated SDDs would have been ...

08/17/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crop Damage, Yield Potential Assessments Start Today On the Grains Corn and soybean futures built on last week’s strong gains overnight amid crop concerns. The assessment of damage from last week’s storms and yield potential will a focal point as Pro Farmer Crop Tour samples fields across seven Corn Belt states this week (see “Ag Headlines and Hotlines” below for details and insider insights). Winter wheat markets pulled back from last week’s strong gains, despite ongoing Black Sea attacks.Forecasts call for seasonal to slightly below-normal temperatures and rainfall chances this week, though they won’t be nearly as heavy rains seen across from eastern Nebraska through Ohio last week. The two-week forecast indicates slightly elevated temps and near-normal rainfall for most of the Corn Belt. Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans will remain a focal point. USDA has announced daily new-crop soybean sales for four straight days as China’s state-owned firms continue to make goodwill purchases ahead of President Trump’s planned meeting with Xi Jinping in Washington in late September. Meanwhile, Chinese state stockpiler Sinograin will auction another 361,728 MT of state-owned soybeans procured from 2022 to 2025 – mostly 2022 – on Aug. 19. In the first three auctions, Sinograin made 1.521 MMT of older soybeans available to commercial firms, with 1.064 MMT (nearly 70%) purchased, signaling strong demand. Geopolitically, Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other’s grain exporting capabilities. A Russian attack targeted port infrastructure in Ukraine's Izmail district, which is Ukraine's largest port on the ...

Grain were called to a slightly stronger start on additional war premium and returning weather risk. In the Headlines The crop yield debate continues to build based on fresh reference points from last week's USDA report. Corn and soybean yields were down by more than anticipated by the average trade guesses, with corn yield at 180.7 versus the prior projected trend of 183 and soybean yield at 52.7 versus 53 from July. The arguments for higher or lower depend on views about damage already done before early August rains, and how much the drought-stricken Plains can pull away from national averages propped up by the Midwest. Relatedly, traders were discounting the large corn acreage increase for what may not make it to harvest. Among the standout individual state yield estimates, Iowa and Indiana were predicted with new corn yield records while Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio were projected with record soybean yields. Part of the assessment will include the possibility of rains over the last week having tilted more damaging than beneficial because of all the flooding. Ukraine was the common subject of headlines over the weekend for launching "one of its largest aerial attacks of the war." Russia and Ukraine were trading deadly drone strikes, including against civilian infrastructure such as private housing, railroads and warehouses for retail goods. Another flaring of hostilities negated prospects of a deal for both sides to stop targeting export channels, helping to rally Chicago wheat 35 cents last week. Tyson Foods announced restructuring for its beef business that ...

08/14/2026 US Wealth Disparity after 250 Years-Where it Goes from Here PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 2 If Americans voted strictly according to their wealth status, socialist candidates would sweep elections and the GOP would get put out to pasture. Some GOP worry about the US demographic is well on its way to becoming a minority majority which leans heaviest to Democrats. The wealthy know what the risk is in the pitchforks eventually coming for them. This is why the wealthy power structure, yet in control, wants to federalize the election process and remove limits from election spending so they can hold this wave of “communists” back. Democracy becomes a threat to the billionaires. It gives context to the purpose of the “Save America Act”. They are thinking long term, which is why they want to end birthright citizenship. Elon Musk injects $250 mln into the election process, which to ‘a trillionaire’, is chump change. The Supreme Court knocked the spigot clear off the barrel from which dollars flow into the election system meaning contributions are becoming unlimited. 80% of the voting public has no financial means to fund PACs. They get taken in by ads paid for those that do. The administration is transactional, whether that be FTC rulings, DOJ influence, pardon or meme coin purchases being sold to election funding donors. It is not my purpose to express any of my values in this exercise only to inform you of the degree ...

08/14/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video On Again, Off Again… Rinse and Repeat On the Grains: The wheat market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical headlines amid the heightened attacks in the Black Sea region. Wheat jumped double digits early this morning as Russia reportedly rejected a Ukrainian proposal for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, which ironically is what triggered a sharp fall from Thursday’s intra-day highs. Moscow also dismissed the idea of returning to the old Black Sea grain export agreement. The price tone is higher overnight, but it’s been highly choppy and sideways for nearly the past six months.Corn and soybeans are also higher overnight. Their greater focus is weather, potential crop size and demand. Not surprisingly, their price trends have also been highly choppy and sideways since late winter/early spring. All three markets are being driven by a set of highly volatile factors that can change rather rapidly, causing sentiment to shift. The result has been back-and-forth trade – money flow in, money flow out… rinse and repeat. Corn Belt Deluge, Extreme Conditions Continue An intense week of weather continues this morning, with another wave of heavy rains pushing through the corridor from eastern Nebraska to Ohio. The National Weather Service has issued excessive rainfall and flooding warnings for many of these areas. At some point, the question becomes when is it too much of a good thing? One thing is for certain, 2026 is going down as a year of extreme weather – nothing has come in moderation. On the ...

08/13/2026 The Beer in Brazil Just Keeps getting Cheaper PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update When we first brought US famers to tour Brazil in the early 2000’s a bottle of Skol cost a single Real. A dollar was worth about 1.5 Real at the time so $2US would buy 3 Brazilian beers. US Farmers liked Brazilian beer and they liked the exchange rate. Americans could empty the contents of an upright cooler full of beer overnight and feel like it was free. By the time that we had invested in Brazil the Real had climbed to near 3 Reais to the dollar in anticipation of the socialist Lula de Silva becoming president. It was buy-the-rumor of THE SOCIALIST Silva becoming president followed by selling-the-fact after he was elected. Lula did not turn out to be as inflationary and disruptive as the currency markets had anticipated. In fact, quite the opposite happened. The Brazilian economy grew. Frankly, Lula brought social stability to Brazil that all classes of Brazilians benefited from given their extreme economic disparity. At the time you could look down on favelas from the Hilton as classes, the wealthy and those in poverty, living together next to one another. Not too much has changed there and Lula is running for another term at 80 years old, not knowing when to quit, like so many of our geriatric politicians. Lula’s prosperity produced a relief-rally in the real that resulted in the strengthening of the Real ...

08/13/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Back to the Grind On the Grains: The euphoric price rise on Wednesday wore off overnight. Corn failed to find follow through buying, while soybeans and wheat pivoted around unchanged. Wheat is showing a little strength this morning as Russia struck Ukraine's largest Danube grain shipment port overnight. But a surge in buyer interest in wheat will be tied to a notable pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies – something that hasn’t been seen yet and USDA didn’t account for in its updated balance sheet (see below). Overnight price action signals it’s back to the grind for corn, soybeans and wheat as futures grind within their broad summer trading ranges. Key takeaways from USDA’s Aug. 12 Reports Yields: USDA’s initial yields came in below trendline for both corn and soybeans. Over the past 10 years, USDA has lowered yield from August to January for both in seven years by an average of 1.0 bu. for corn and 0.6 bu. for soybeans. History favors reductions in the months ahead, though August rains give crops plenty of moisture to finish, especially soybeans. Keep in mind, a large part of the August estimates was based on farmer surveys. Farmers overstated their yields in August 2025… it’s possible they went the other direction and understated them this year. Objective field surveys, with ear and pod counts and implied ear and pod weights, will come in September. In a year like this where there’s a big divide between the good ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/12/2026 Bullish Yield Offsets Another Bearish Acreage Surprise PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Finally, the August crop report is behind us. Most traders would have given first glance to corn yield, which was evidently weighted heavier in the algorithmic systems, since the bullish report reaction was attributed to the estimate coming in at 180.7 bushels per acre versus an average trade guess of 182.4. But looking up one line on the balance sheet showed a much larger than expected harvested acreage estimate. Here we go again. Harvested corn acres were increased by 1.2 million on plantings that rose to 96.7 million. It was similar with soybeans, with yield at 52.7 lower than the average trade guess but with acreage climbing by 1.4 million. The acreage changes were overpowered in the reaction but not ignored, as they likely helped contribute to the relatively weaker effect for soybean prices. Part of the reasoning for putting more focus on corn yield would be the idea of those extra acres not making it to grain anyway. The acreage adjustments will stoke further frustration after last year's debacle. While it was already known that the USDA is incorporating FSA certifications in August rather than waiting to October as in years past, there was confusion stemming from a pre-report news release this morning in which the USDA said "This year, NASS has made greater use of acreage information reported to USDA's Farm Service ...

08/12/2026 Geopolitics, Derecho and USDA… Oh My! Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk this morning due to technical difficulties. On the Grains Wheat futures surged overnight as Ukrainian drone strikes pounded three of Russia's large grain terminals at the southern port of Novorossiysk, causing two of them to temporarily halt operations as they assess damage. While traders added risk premium overnight, futures remain in a choppy range as there hasn’t been a significant pickup in export demand for U.S. supplies. Corn and soybeans strengthened overnight ahead of USDA’s August crop reports at 11 a.m. CT, which will feature the first survey-based estimates of both crops. However, those estimates were finalized ahead of Tuesday’s derecho event that caused crop damage from eastern Iowa through the southeastern Corn Belt. There are chances for additional adverse weather for the next couple of days. Danage assessments will take several days – and even then, won’t be fully known until harvest is complete. Using the August 2020 derecho as a blueprint – even if the damage isn’t the same – USDA lowered corn yield, harvested acres and production significantly from August to final. The U.S. corn supply situation could change dramatically from what USDA prints today and January’s final estimate. That will unfold over the next two months and markets must determine how to handle it from a price perspective. Keep in mind, USDA’s first objective field (yield) surveys start in September. This morning’s estimates are based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery as of ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/11/2026 Yield Estimates Fall Towards Trendline – Long Term View Positive PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Tomorrow's report will undoubtedly have a major impact on markets in the short-term, but even if it is bearish, we don't see it changing our longer-term bullish forecast. Last year caught the market by surprise by printing the largest yield forecast ever recorded, sending prices sharply lower. We didn't know it then, but that was ultimately a buying opportunity. Analysts like to remind us that lows have been made in the month of August in 8 out of the last 10 years. So far this year, it appears to be repeating the same pattern. My only problem with this is it tends to create recency bias, whereas because it has always happened a certain way, everyone continues to assume it will continue to do so. Sooner or later, we are given a surprise, reminding us that is not always the case. The market consensus seems to be that above trend line yields are out of the question. The crop has way too many holes in it. To hot and dry in the West, while too wet in the East.  While we would tend to agree with this, it does not mean it has to be a disaster crop either. Our seed genetics have been improved to withstand more drought and heat than in the past. On our own farm, we have ...

08/11/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Déjà Vu All Over Again?... Let’s Hope Not On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded quietly in the tight ranges overnight as traders await the storm – both literally and figuratively. Preparations are underway for the figurative “storm” of USDA data coming Wednesday that will feature the first survey-based production and yield estimates for corn and soybeans that will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. NASS will also incorporate FSA certified acreage data as of early August into its initial production estimates. Separately, FSA will release detailed acreage data as of early August, including prevent-plant acres for each crop. USDA will also update its U.S. wheat production forecasts and the old- and new-crop balance sheets, along global production and ending stocks. The literal storm is the potential for a derecho event today in a wide swath across South Dakota, southern Minnesota, Iowa, northern Illinois and northern Indiana. Timing is eerily similar to the Aug. 10 derecho six years ago that wiped out many acres of corn and made USDA’s initial crop estimate virtually moot. Anyone that was directly impacted by the 2020 event puckers a little at just the mention of derecho. The initial timing and path are shown below, though some forecasters have shifted the path a little further southeast. A Weather Track U.S. update overnight said, “The initial supercells that developed in the Dakotas have not grown upscale, but have continued moving southward, producing a swath of wind/hail damage. New activity ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/10/2026 Probably My Last Trip to the Farms in Brasil PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update 'Spell-Check' thinks Brasil is spelled with a Z (Brazil). Down there they spell it with an S (Brasil). I have been to Brasil close to 35 times, mostly for investment duties, since December of 2001. That was just a month after 9-11 when the world changed.  I went because I wanted to get a first-hand view of our rising Ag competitor. I learned that US farmers really do not have a good perspective of where they fit into the global Ag structure until they have seen Brasil's Ag. Home looks different after you have been there. This trip was for the Kruse-Schutte family reunion. The relationship between our families began back in 1996 when my son Matthew joined a high school student exchange (GAPP) program where, by chance, he was hosted by the Schutte family in Dresden Germany. We then hosted both Schuette sons, Tino and Marco, to internships here in the US and Matthew returned to Dresden during college for a summer internship, staying with the Schutte's, while working on an East German dairy farm (treating cows for foot-rot). Tino is now a University Professor of Energy Economics and Marco is the CFO of a German pharmaceutical company. During summers in college, Matthew also participated in a summer European farm tour hosted by ISU and attended a course at Bejing University in China arranged by ...

08/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Geopolitics Grab Wheat Market’s Attention On the Grains Wheat futures led gains in the grain and soy markets overnight, building on Friday’s gains amid heightened geopolitical concerns in the Black Sea region. Soybeans were boosted by Chinese demand. Weather remains generally favorable for crop development, though the southern half of the country could face stress from heat and limited rainfall. Russia hammered Odesa during the weekend with one of the heaviest attacks of the war on Ukraine’s major grain export hub. Turkey stopped issuing Dardanelles transit permits for vessels bound for Ukraine or Russia's Novorossiysk. While geopolitical concerns are heightened, export demand for U.S. wheat must increase to garner sustained buyer interest. Other origins, primarily European exporters, will get the bulk of the initial wheat business that’s lost in the Black Sea region. The U.S. will benefit from increased demand for corn, though that window won’t open until fall. Timely rains in eastern Australia have boosted the country’s wheat production prospects for 2026-27, with multiple private crop forecasters now calling for production of around 30 MMT. While that would be down from last year’s 35.8 MMT crop, it would be up significantly from earlier forecasts. But El Nino remains a threat ahead of harvest, which typically starts in October. China’s state-owned firms were rumored to be buyers of more U.S. soybean late last week. Traders anticipate USDA will confirm some of that business via more daily sales announcements. Since July 27, USDA has reported ...

Grain were called to a slightly stronger start on additional war risk premium entering the market. Better weather was an offsetting negative as light rains swept across the Midwest, with more moisture in the forecast later this week. Traders were still likely to approach the grains with caution ahead of the Wednesday crop report. In the Headlines Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Sunday that his government was rejecting the agreement to disarm Hamas that was developed out of the Board of Peace coalition backed by President Trump. The news was likely to stoke further tension between the two leaders as they also attempt coordination on negotiations with Iran. Talks aimed at reopening the Strait of Hormuz were set back again by Iran issuing a new list of demands that included termination of the U.S. blockade and compensation for war damages. Iran attacked an oil tanker in the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday. The Iran-backed Houthi rebels struck an oil terminal in Saudi Arabia on Sunday, as well as a port on the Red Sea. Fighting was heavy between Russia and Ukraine over the weekend. Russia was targeting the Ukrainian capital of Kiev and its second largest city, Kharkiv. Drone and missile attacks were further spotlighting the depletion of Ukraine's U.S.-made Patriot missile interceptors. Fresh attacks also carried out damage on Ukraine's fuel storage depots and port infrastructure on the Black Sea. Ukraine continued to launch drones against Russian energy assets in Crimea and on sites across the Sea of Azov. Last week ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/07/2026 Long Straddle or Short Strangle PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update CME Group described Thursday's market with the newsletter title "Low Volatility Ahead of Data Day." Financial market volatility was particularly subdued as stock index futures hovered just under new record highs from the previous session. The reference to Data Day centered on the Friday morning jobs report, which did inject a moderate dose of volatility into markets because of employment contracting rather than growing as expected. It was 'bad news is good news' for interest rate expectations, which is why lower bond yields were initially accompanied by a softer dollar and stronger stock futures. Silver and gold jumped immediately to extend overnight gains, but the metals and most markets quickly settled and reverted as traders weighed concerns about the bad news on jobs still being bad for the economy. Consider whether the potential for growing uncertainty about monetary policy and the economy may fuel heightened market volatility in the weeks ahead, not only for the stock market but also for commodities including grains and livestock. For the stock market, monitor the VIX, an index measuring expected volatility based on S&P 500 options. The VIX is known as a fear gauge for its reflection of how actively traders are hedging stock market exposure, including their willingness to pay up for put protection. The risks of panic and fear developing in the stock market help to form a ...

08/07/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Today’s An Up Day – So Far On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat are firmer early this morning amid corrective buying. Corn is working on a modest gain for the week, while soybeans and the wheat markets are lower. The same factors – weather, geopolitics and Chinese demand remain in focus, while traders are also starting to position themselves ahead of USDA’s August crop reports next Wednesday. Nothing has changed aside from the direction of money flow – and that is light. Weather remains non-threatening for corn and soybeans. Clusters of rain are on the radar this morning, with near- to above-normal rainfall likely over the Corn Belt during the next two weeks. Russia and Ukraine continue to attack each other, slowing grain shipments from the Black Sea region. But there hasn’t been a pickup in export demand for U.S. wheat. In the Middle East, markets wait to see if Iran and Oman can reach a deal to open the Strait of Hormuz. China continues to actively buy U.S. new-crop soybeans. USDA should confirm more business via daily sales today. There was talk of China booking additional cargoes on Thursday. China state stockpiler Sinograin will auction 516,613 MT of state-owned soybean reserves that were procured from 2022 to 2025 on Aug. 12. In the first two auctions, Sinograin sold just over 604,000 MT of older soybean reserves – about 60% of the supplies put up for sale. Crop Estimating Season Hitting Full Stride Private firms ...

The Commstock Report is a twice daily market report. 08/06/2026 US Wealth Disparity after 250 Years-Where it Goes from Here PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 I think that it was decades ago when I first heard the warning, but after a big stock market rally to what was then new highs, a wealthy stock market investor retorted that he was worried "that the pitch forks would be coming for them soon". Here we are many years and many rallies later after making new market highs regularly and after the markets recently created the first US $trillionaire…the poor have been left out of any share of this wealth creation… yet their pitchforks have yet to show up. No mob…not yet. I do believe that there is a large growing number of Americans who could be described as angry, disgruntled and disillusioned from which a mob could form. According to our president, what we need to fear is the "communists". Never mind as this country 250 years into its creation is about as far away from being communist as it's possible to get. Most Americans, including myself, do not have an accurate picture of the scope of the reality of wealth disparity in the US today. It exceeds perceptions. It is difficult to see an elephant if you are standing right next to it. The following bar-charts tell the story. Americans have a picture in their minds of what the ideal wealth distribution should be…and what they ...

08/06/2026 China’s Bean Buying Frenzy Continues Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk video this morning. On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat narrowly pivoted around unchanged during a quiet overnight session, as traders continued to monitor weather, geopolitical events and Chinese demand. Traders will also start to position themselves ahead of the Aug. 12 USDA reports. China’s state-owned firms booked at least another 13 cargoes of U.S. soybeans (roughly 800,000 MT) on Wednesday, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the situation. That’s in line with the 12 to 15 cargoes export sources indicated. Expect another flurry of daily sales announcements. This is the second wave of big soybean purchases China’s state firms have made since late last week as they have taken advantage of the sharp price break in futures, pushing total volumes for 2026-27 to around 6 MMT – about one-quarter of its 25 MMT commitment via the trade deal. Crop Estimating Season Hitting Full Stride Private firms are releasing their corn and soybean yield and production forecasts ahead of USDA’s first survey-based estimates on Aug. 12, which will be based primarily on farmer surveys and satellite imagery. Wire services will release average estimates from surveys of analysts. Commstock: Corn yield of 182.6 bu. per acre and production of 15.965 billion bu.; soybean yield of 52.4 bu. per acre and production of 4.422 billion bushels StoneX: Corn yield of 184.8 bu. per acre and production of 16.160 billion bu.; soybean yield of 53.0 bu. per acre and production of 4.470 billion bushels. S&P ...