CommStock Reports

I attended the Iowa Renewable Fuels Summit early this month. I was there 10 years ago when candidate Trump told the Summit that he would be the best ethanol president ever. He had visited Des Moines again recently and was met by ethanol industry representatives who presented him with a full-page ad that the industry had placed in the Des Moines Register promoting E-15. He signed it. Unfortunately, that was not the bill, just an ad.  He said that he would sign that too if Congress sent it to him.   Such a bill is under (miss)management in Congress and there was hope that it could be enacted yet this month …but deadlines have passed and nothing has really changed. Small refineries want more exemptions and if they are willing to make a deal one could be made. We are at the point where everyone understands that year-around nationwide E-15 should be offered to consumers. It is a high octane domestically produced fuel that can be sold at a better price. Year-around nationwide E-15 is fuel deregulation needed to give consumers a better choice. Even the opposition knows that. They know that consumers will choose E-15 as they do now in the 8 states where it is being sold. What it now comes down to is that E-15 would capture additional market share of motor fuel for ethanol away from petroleum producers. They of course do not want to lose this market share to ethanol competition, and the petroleum industry has had ...

Reco Day 1:   ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.   Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Fun fact, the day after St. Patrick's Day sees the second most Americans calling in sick to work, with the first being the Monday after the Super Bowl. Although starting your workday at 4am can certainly cut the nights short, it was easy to see how many were enjoying themselves (maybe a bit too much) in the couple of stops we made yesterday evening.   On to the matters at hand. Overnight grain action started out on quietly firm footing, with all contracts and corn, beans and wheat immediately moving into the green after the 7pm CT open. Unfortunately that green faded to red fairly quickly and as of this writing we have all major grains trading negative. Soybeans are leading the weakness, trading to 8 cents lower in old crop contracts over the past several minutes. Trump officially delaying his trip to China scheduled for the end of this month is not giving bean traders warm and fuzzies. The delay in this summit is responsible for early week weakness in all grains and traders are losing hope for additional old crop US grain purchases on the part of China.   Yesterday's higher ...

I never took soybeans for the jealous type.  The market has been riding high on the hopes that China would keep buying beans on top of what has already been committed to.  This weekend we got the slightest bit of reference that China could buy something other than US soybeans.  The beans did not like that…not one little bit.  One of the things I told the crowd at the Commodity Classic was how soybeans were getting all the attention with the China trade negotiations.  Not to complain, but it seemed a little lopsided.  Note to US trade negotiations team: we do produce other things besides soybeans.  If Trump has the power to get China to buy our beans, surely, he could get them to buy more of our corn, cotton or a myriad of other crops such as spearmint!  (Spearmint is grown Pacific Northwest and the USA exported 1 million pounds last year to places like China, which I totally knew off the top of my head and did not have to google.)   Cotton loved the news.  I don't believe any official trade rep has uttered the word cotton yet.  But analysts know that China used to be in love with US cotton…probably as much or more than soybeans.  Considering China used to be a huge buyer of cotton, the market quickly put two and two together.  Could China be getting back together again with cotton?  Cotton traded above its 2025 just on the suspicion alone.  Speaking with growers in the ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.   No Morning Market Talk due to technical difficulties.   On the Grains   Good morning, Justin McKinney back in the saddle filling in for Brian today. It's just for today so don't go falling in love with my writing. Yesterday, the news world lost a good one, Orion Samuelson. Growing up with only three TV stations to watch, I always enjoyed when he was on in the mornings, his voice could cut through a room and grab ahold of you making you feel like you were staring at campfire while listening. Maybe times were slower back then, or maybe I just was too young to notice. Either way I always felt like he did a great job of telling the story of food and fiber production in a way that made me proud to be a young aspiring agriculturalist. Also being a native of Wisconsin and not that terribly far from our farm. We won't hold it against him that he worked in Chicago for sixty years. I won't even google if he was a Cubs or Bears fan, we will let it slide if he was.   Moving on to the markets, crude attempting a recovery overnight, up $3.51 at $95.97 (5:15 am) should likely be supportive row crops. Overnight Iran did attack some natural gas fields which supported the higher trade. Export inspections continue to make a splash on corn as cumulative ...

The "Rumble in the Jungle" heavyweight boxing fight between Joe Frazier and Mohammed Ali is analogous to the beginning of the war with Iran. I hope the outcome this time is different. Frazier was expected to win, superior to Ali in strength, reach and all the other metrics that normally determined the outcome of a boxing match. For the first several rounds of the fight, Ali covered up, took a pounding from Frazier, leaned back into the ropes and survived the onslaught. Frazier was eventually tired and became frustrated. Ali would not surrender and Frazier could not put him away. Is that where we are now? Our military is tiring and our president is frustrated by Tehran's refusal to quit. President Trump is no quitter.   We have pounded Iran's military to where they have run out of targets. In terms of drones, small ships and mines Iran has such a depth of resources that we will run out of missiles before they do. They produced 10,000 drones per month before the war. If they stop sharing with Russia, they have plenty. As they have hesitated, our military is obviously reluctant to escort tankers through the strait. Either we did not have the right forces in place or they are not confident of success. Iran appears eager to oppose a convoy. If we attempted to transit as a convoy and they failed, the world would go crazy. The one day spike up in crude oil is not an energy crisis. If ...

Morning Market Talk No Morning Market Talk due to software issues.   On the Grains All of the grains were weak on the open last night and have continued to fall through the overnight trade. Corn and wheat are only slightly softer, and have begun to find traction in the early morning hours, but soybeans on the other hand are 30 lower in the May contract and only slightly off the overnight lows.   In an interview released Sunday, President Trump said that he may delay his summit with China's President Xi Jinping, a move that soybean traders clearly did not like, but not unexpected as Trump continues to push other international leaders to assist in opening the Strait of Hormuz. While speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, President Trump called China "an interesting case study" as he hinted that it would be in China's best interest to assist the US. A vast majority of China's oil comes through the passage. However, they remain hesitant to involve their military in foreign conflicts and, as with their grains, their oil stores are enough to keep them operational for quite some time. Trump assures that China is still committed to purchasing 25mmt of soybeans over each of the next three years, and possibly more products. During discussions between American and Chinese delegations in Paris on Sunday, China expressed interest in additional American agricultural goods, including poultry, beef, and non-soybean row crops. While positive, until purchases are made, these are nothing more than negotiations.   The conflict in the Middle ...

Grains were positioned for a softer start as wider profit-taking was expected following a relative lacking of escalation in the Middle East. In the Headlines New developments with Iran were limited to this point of the weekend, with focus on six U.S. airmen killed in a plane crash in Iraq and on comments from President Trump calling for other countries that rely on the Strait of Hormuz to send ships to the help reopen the shipping passage. Trump also threatened additional strikes on Kharg Island that Iran uses as a terminal for 90 percent of its oil shipments. Fresh attacks with drones and missiles were being launched by Iran in Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, which included the targeting of ports that did not host U.S. assets. Aside from something with the war popping up to drive crude oil sharply higher, the grains could also get a lift if positive reports are produced by trade talks between the U.S. and China that started on Sunday. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer were meeting with the Chinese Vice Premier in Paris. Both sides are expected to be searching for points of agreement that could be celebrated by President Trump and Xi Jinping when they meet in China at the end of the month. This Friday is a 'triple witching' day for the stock market, when stock index futures expire along with stock index options and individual stock options. S&P 500 futures were down for a third straight ...

Commodity prices have rallied in response to fresh war premium entering the space, with large investment capital attracted by the crude oil strength as it exited the stock market. Even amid the heightened volatility, money flows have been relatively orderly and not all that surprising compared to how traders would normally expect movement among the different asset classes. Energy markets reacted first, surging higher on the prospects of production constraints, shipping disruptions, and strategic stockpiling. The dollar immediately jumped against most currencies as investors searched for safe haven, including with money moved into cash from the stock market. Losses for the Dow Jones Industrial Average were approaching about 5 percent in the two weeks since the attacks on Iran. Uneasiness over war's impact on the economy spilled over from the stock market into agricultural futures initially, but the crude oil rally eventually won out to pull grains higher as well. All markets remain in a precarious ebb and flow where money coming out of equities can turn into bullish price pressure elsewhere – until the broader risk-off shift becomes too much so that it turns into a sell everything event.   The U.S. stock market is thought to make up about half of global equity values that total over $100 trillion. Total margin capital held in the word's commodity markets is measured in the hundreds of billions, or less than one percent of the stock market's capitalization. Consider the relative size of the corn market, with open interest in futures and options ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Soy complex futures and corn traded lower overnight, while wheat was mildly firmer, as traders position ahead of the weekend following a volatile week of trade. Crude oil futures have also pulled back this morning, despite no signs the war with Iran will end anytime soon. Iran's new Supreme Leader conveyed a defiant tone and said the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed in his first address on Thursday, while President Trump threatened further attacks.   For the week, soybeans and corn are higher, while wheat markets are lower.   China Plays Phytosanitary Card On Brazil Shipments   Bloomberg reported "a number of cargoes" of Brazilian soybeans failed to pass sanitary checks held at ports in the past few days, citing people familiar with the situation, affecting vessels destined for China. As previously noted, Brazil's ag ministry enacted more stringent phytosanitary checks on soybean shipments at the request of China.   "Chinese customs in various regions have observed increased issues in Brazilian soybeans, including the presence of live insects, beans coated with seed treatment agents such as pesticides or fungicides, and heat damage," an Asian trader at an international company which sells beans to China told Reuters.   The tougher phytosanitary checks are backing up Brazilian shipments as soybeans harvest hits its peak. That's squeezing Brazilian farmers, as some exporters have pulled bids. But it's also impacting the Chinese market, with Dalian soymeal futures rising to ...

Wars occur in stages and the first round of this war with Iran is morphing into a second. The first phase was to blow the top echelon of the Iranian regime and its military assets to hell. The mission included destroying Iranian nuclear weapon development and ballistic missile-making capability. With air dominance, never in doubt, our military has accomplished all of that. No one can match our military in this kind of fight. They have either destroyed or degraded all facets of Iran's military ability to strike back. The (miss)assumption was that "this would do it" preventing or disrupting the formation of a new regime to replace the one killed and bringing about a capitulation of Iran. War Over? Not so fast. Everything that President Trump says about our military is right but if Iran takes the hits and doesn't quit where does that leave him? It appears that we have entered round 2 of the war.   Our military delivered on the mission, but the Iranian Regime has not succumbed or cooperated. All we did was eliminate their old order and bring up a fresh new group of Islamic radicals just as committed to harming us as the previous generation was. These guys may even be more resourceful than their predecessors. They are hiding from the Israeli's lethal intelligence and by staying alive and refusing to surrender they can hold the US in the Mid-East turning what was intended to be a short result into something protracted. Americans are tired of ...

03/12/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Middle East Tensions & Biofuels Rumors Explode On the Grains Grain and soy markets extended Wednesday’s gains overnight, though they remain below Monday’s intraday highs. Crude oil futures have retreated from their overnight highs but remain higher amid an escalation of attacks in the Middle East. Iran attacked six more vessels in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz, including to Iraqi tankers, prompting the country to suspend operations at its oil terminals. There have now been at least 16 ships struck in the waters around Iran since the fighting began. Aside from support from crude oil, the soy oil market was boosted Wednesday by rumors about the forthcoming EPA announcements on biofuels blending mandates for 2026 and 2027. There were several rumors floating through the marketplace, though the most credible seems like an EPA 2026 biomass-based diesel RVO of 5.4 billion gallons with ideas of 70% of previously granted small refinery exemptions reallocated to remaining refiners. That would result in an effective 2026 RVO near 5.61 billion gallons. Reason this makes sense: EPA’s original proposal was 5.61 billion gallons for biomass-based diesel for 2026, though you get there with a slightly lower RVO and big but not full reallocation percentage. This would be very much how Washington has handled biofuels policy... trying to appease both sides without giving either side all they desire. Cargill Halts Brazil Soybean Shipments to China Cargill has paused soybean export operations from Brazil to China after inspection changes made by the Brazilian ...

Best practices for marketing grain would typically include identifying the size of the crop, combined with analysis of demand driven fundamentals such as exports, ethanol or crush.  Now we must become exports on Iranian drone capabilities, as that has had an outsized impact on markets, sending commodities up sharply due to the war.  The market does not seem to care that Brazil is in the middle of harvest.  Rather, it is asking how many drones Iran has left.   Due to fear from drone attacks, most oil shipping companies seem unwilling to commit their fleets to the 21-mile stretch of sea called the Strait of Hormuz despite US willingness to offer insurance.  I don't blame them.  I would be a bit skittish about driving my truck through a minefield, despite assurances from Jake at State Farm that I was fully covered.   Iran is not expected to fold anytime soon.  With that in mind, drone attacks can and likely will occur at random for the foreseeable future, at least until they run out of drones, estimated to be about six months' worth of supply.  This has caused unforeseen volatility that is impossible to predict.  Crude is clearly pulling the grains along with it, and despite its recent sell off, I don't see a short-term solution to the shipping issue.  Countries are opening their strategic reserves but that won't do much if A) that same oil might have to go out through the Strait of Hormuz and B) they are simultaneously shutting down oil wells ...

03/11/2026 Markets Remain Edgy Amid Ongoing War Subscriber Update: One of the collateral impacts of soaring energy prices from the regional war with Iran is to pull CBOT markets higher than expected in sympathy with the oil market rally. This can exceed margin risk-tolerance for some hedgers. President Trump has called the market impact of the war “an excursion” that will be relatively short-lived. That is likely accurate but... it can feel, however, like it will last forever in the emotion of the moment. Margin pressure on hedges results. The duration of the excursion is unforecastable. Crude oil has targets of $120 per barrel, followed by all-time high at $147.27. No one knows the interim upside potential. If oil prices rise high enough, long enough demand destruction will end the rally. When exhausted, these markets will fall faster than they rose. Hedgers should evaluate their CBOT positions and modify their coverage to what they can afford to margin under these unprecedented circumstances. We will again advise when we think that hedges should be fully reinstated. Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk due to technical difficulties. On the Grains Grain and soy markets except for soymeal traded higher overnight, led by strong gains in soy oil. Front-month crude oil futures are trading more than $33 below Monday’s spike high but they rose from Tuesday’s sharp price drop, despite reports the International Energy Agency has proposed releasing a record of up to 400 million barrels of oil reserves to tame global supply concerns and ease prices. Countries will vote ...

President Trump suggested the war with Iran was over, or mostly over, and markets took that to mean they could take the temperature down from boiling. President Trump has his way of saying things that results in what he wants to see happen but are not always truly accurate. The war with Iran is not over until Iran concedes that it is over. We have yet to see evidence that they have been bombed into submission. The regime appears to have survived some mortals blows and is still in control of the country and has resources yet to commit to the fight. They have not surrendered nor have they given up on a key leverage point that will decide the war that I have been harping on…free transit through the strait of Hormuz.   The Mid-East is a tough community. Most of the enmity is between the Jews and Muslims, but not all. There are two kinds of Muslims, the Sunnis and Shiites. They hate each other too. They are represented by Saudis and Iranians. This ingrained culture of hate goes back before Jesus Christ. They practice an eye for an eye and tooth for a tooth way of balancing differences and they keep it up generationally never letting it cool. Christians who promoted turning the other cheek were the radical left-wing liberals to the concept with Crusaders, very un-Christian-like, joining in the intolerance. For centuries nothing has changed except who kills who. Isreal has nuclear weapon to protect their right to ...

03/10/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Volatile Crude Oil Market Drops, Grains Follow Subscriber Update: One of the collateral impacts of soaring energy prices from the regional war with Iran is to pull CBOT markets higher than expected in sympathy with the oil market rally. This can exceed margin risk-tolerance for some hedgers. President Trump has called the market impact of the war “an excursion” that will be relatively short-lived. That is likely accurate but... it can feel, however, like it will last forever in the emotion of the moment. Margin pressure on hedges results. The duration of the excursion is unforecastable. Crude oil has targets of $120 per barrel, followed by all-time high at $147.27. No one knows the interim upside potential. If oil prices rise high enough, long enough demand destruction will end the rally. When exhausted, these markets will fall faster than they rose. Hedgers should evaluate their CBOT positions and modify their coverage to what they can afford to margin under these unprecedented circumstances. We will again advise when we think that hedges should be fully reinstated. On the Grains Front-month crude oil futures traded lower overnight and are roughly $30 below Monday’s spike high. The pullback started on Monday as the Group of Seven advanced economies announced they are prepared to release strategic oil reserves to stabilize the global energy market if necessary and extended after President Trump said the war with Iran could end “very soon.” Trump said he didn’t believe the fighting would be over this week, but insisted the ...

CommStock Alert: I was correct in anticipating that a 3rd carrier battle group would join the Lincoln and Ford in the war with Iran. I was wrong about which one. It is the USS George H Bush not the USS Theodore Roosevelt moving to the theater. The Roosevelt is backfilling for the previous mission of the Lincoln. We now have 5 carrier battle groups on duty which means it is all hands-on deck for the US Navy. Likely the same for the USAF. The Space Force is contributing to providing targeting info.   CommStock Alert No.2: I can recommend some motion sickness tablets, some prefer wrist bands, to keep the bile from accumulating in your throat from the roller coaster volatility that markets are going to put us through.   My view shared that the S&P was forming a rounding top appears to have come to fruition. 6300 would be the first downside objective. The trap door has sprung open in the potential damage to the global economy from the war. Gold has begun to correct against the dollar having gotten ahead of the dollar. I am still in my turtle-mode holding gold. An Iranian minister said that anyone transiting the Hormuz strait "should be careful". The market took that to mean that vessels under flags that Iran is not at war with could go through. Time will tell. Crude oil will reflect the fundamentals. Let's get into that.   Unconditional surrender is a good place to start negotiations. However, even Ulysses S. Grant ...

03/09/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Crude Oil Tops $100, Grains Follow New Reco Day 3: The 20% new-crop soybean sales against March 2027 futures were recorded at $11.45, as reflected in the table at the end of this report. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Subscriber Update: One of the collateral impacts of soaring energy prices from the regional war with Iran is to pull CBOT markets higher than expected in sympathy with the oil market rally. This can exceed margin risk-tolerance for some hedgers. President Trump has called the market impact of the war “an excursion” that will be relatively short-lived. That is likely accurate but... it can feel, however, like it will last forever in the emotion of the moment. Margin pressure on hedges results. The duration of the excursion is unforecastable. Crude oil has targets of $120 per barrel, followed by all-time high at $147.27. No one knows the interim upside potential. If oil prices rise high enough, long enough demand destruction will end the rally. When exhausted, these markets will fall faster than they rose. Hedgers should evaluate their CBOT positions and modify their coverage to what they can afford to margin under these unprecedented circumstances. We will again advise when we think that hedges should be fully reinstated. On the Grains Front-month WTI crude oil futures surged above $100 for the first time ...

Grains were set to start on firmer footing after closing last week strong, but most commodities join oil in looking vulnerable to corrective action as there are lulls in the news about Iran. In the Headlines Daylight saving time kicks in today to spring the clock forward. The 2026 spring equinox will occur on March 20th. Weekend developments in the Middle East included Israeli attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure, with major fuel storage facilities hit. Iran carried out strikes in Bahrain and Kuwait. The Islamic council of Iran announced it had chosen a new supreme leader but did not announce who it was. The Iran-backed Houthi militants based in Yemen made new threats about entering the war, with observers watching the possibility for the Houthi to target vessels in the Red Sea and to launch attacks against Saudi Arabia. Many headlines addressed the conflict's impact on fuel prices, noting a more than 10 percent jump in the national gasoline average last week and an even bigger move for diesel. Closure of the Strait of Hormuz has crimped flows of oil so that stockpiles are swelling for countries like Kuwait, Iraq, and Qatar. Kuwait's state oil company declared a force majeure and was cutting production. Nearby WTI crude oil futures surged higher by $23 per barrel to settle just over $90. The impact of war was being felt in the fuel and fertilizer markets. Urea prices were leading the surge for fertilizers with a 5 percent jump from last month, to $611 per ton. The DTN ...

The escalation of conflict in the Middle East has triggered a rapid reshuffling of capital across global markets. Rather than a universal risk-off move, the initial reaction has produced a mixed rotation of money as investors adjust war premium among different asset classes. Money was flowing out of some sectors and into others; this week, it was out of equities and into oil, the dollar, and grains. The concepts of war premium have been widely covered to explain why certain markets have moved counter to their normal relationships – for example, the dollar and commodity prices rising together when they usually express inverse tendencies. Now a major risk for commodities is that the pressures from the broader financial market become too much so that rotation among markets ceases, giving way to a flush of funds in one direction – out.   Institutional money flows will help determine the grain rally's staying power along with the reportable managed money traders that have been active from both sides of bullish and bearish. Friday afternoon's trader positions report was expected to show hedge funds flipping net-long in corn futures for the first time since December. Last week was the first time the funds had turned net-long in Kansas City wheat since 2023. Including this this week's action, funds will have their soybean position rivaling the record net-long of 253,000 contracts. Speculative decision-making will intersect with how commercial hedgers respond to price changes. The combined investment money inflows remained significantly more aggressive than farmer selling for ...

03/06/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain, Crude Oil Prices Continue to Surge as War Rages On New Reco Day 2: Advance New Crop 2026 Soybean Sales 20% against March 2027 futures at $11.45.  Note: The 20% new-crop corn sales against March 2027 futures were recorded at $4.81, as reflected in the table at the end of this report. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy markets are firmer this morning, led by double-digit gains in the winter wheat markets. Soyoil futures faced profit-taking after Thursday’s surged pushed front-month futures to the highest since mid-2023, though they are firmer early this morning and just below yesterday’s highs. Crude oil futures continue to surge, with the front-month contract reaching the highest level since April 2024. May corn futures are the highest since the Jan. 12 post-USDA report collapse and May soybeans are the highest since late-May 2024. New-crop December and November soybeans are at their highest levels since May 2024. SRW wheat futures are trading below Monday’s intraday highs, while HRW wheat is at the highest since early July and HRS the highest since late August. Global benchmark Brent crude oil has rallied 20% this week, while U.S. WTI futures have surged 25% to the highest since April 2024. Developments Tied to Middle East Conflict The bombings in the Middle East moved ...

This was not the report that I had prepared for today but there are a few points, given the geopolitical turmoil, that I feel the need to address. This will follow with the prepared report. Our Chief-broker Eric Relph's son serves in the 4trth Infantry Division. He says that Some of his counterparts in elements of the 3rd Infantry and 8th Airbourne contingent have been called up for deployment to the Mid-East. Boots heading for Iranian ground? Not if they can help it but nothing is off the table. I have no inside info but it would be my guess as to where they could be headed.   Iran says the strait of Hormuz is closed and traffic is off 90%. The oil market is alarmed and that angst is spreading though markets. The US must open the strait of Hormuz to oil transit. President Trump says the US will insure the ships and cargos and provide escorts. There are reportedly 60 large tankers waiting outside the gulf for word that it is safe to enter. Many others are trapped in the gulf waiting for an opportunity to exit. The trade needs to see convoys successfully transit the strait, entering and exiting without incident, in order to build upon confidence that the US is in control of the military and commercial situation there. This could be a flash point for markets. If and when transit of the strait is successful…the war could effectively be at an end militarily. If Iran cannot block ...

03/05/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Factoring in Extended War Risks New Reco Day 1: Advance New Crop 2026 Soybean Sales 20% against March 2027 futures at $11.45.  Note: The 20% new-crop corn sales against March 2027 futures were recorded at $4.81, as reflected in the table at the end of this report. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial, and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded higher overnight with the exception of soy meal, which modestly favored the downside. Crude oil strengthened after Wednesday’s pause, briefly poking to a new high for the move but failing to find sustained buying above Tuesday’s intraday highs. Both gold futures and the U.S. dollar index traded higher overnight. The global bond selloff continued. The war with Iran entered its sixth day, with little sign of easing, as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said retaliatory attacks will intensify in coming days and an Iranian official told state television Tehran has “no intention of negotiating with the U.S.” The duration of military operations remains uncertain, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth saying “it could be six, it could be eight, it could be three” weeks before they are wrapped up. China’s Five-Year Plan: Slower Economic Growth; Ag Technology Expansion China’s National People’s Congress unveiled a sweeping roadmap for the country’s economic and political future via the “Five-Year Plan.” Highlights: China signaled it is entering ...

The S&P is in a long-term bull market until it isn't. Analysts who have predicted an extrapolation of the trend have been right. Sooner or later a 1980-like event is reached when an existential fundamental change occurs. Demographics that have driven the stock market bull are likely beginning to change as baby-boomers make withdrawals instead of new investments. Upside momentum slowed which typically occurs before a top. Some argue that this is just a rotation from the Big-7 stocks which had dominated gains last year into the balance of the S%P stocks. Investors have become indoctrinated that breaks are always buying opportunities and recoveries follow. They have pretty much become locked-in bulls. There is hubris among investors who think that the market always rises. Sideways grind can also serve as a correction. Resistance and support levels have formed. What will precipitate a breakout? Wars tend to bring economic activity where debt is accumulated as stimulus. Inflation is also impacted. That would drive new economic activity but worsen an already heady debt accumulation. The US has no oil shortage and may temporarily supply the world with oil due to a disruption in the Gulf war with Iran. The situation over the strait of Hormuz has the markets attention. If the war with Iran is successful then oil prices will retreat and the world will be a safer place as the Mid-East becomes attractive for new investment.  We should soon see the grind in the S&P resolve in a breakout.   I borrowed this ...

03/04/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets, Volatility Calm a Little Overnight New Reco Day 2: Advance New Crop 2026 Corn Sales 20% against March futures to take cash sales coverage to 60%. Maintain new crop hedges in place or add to them as coverage benefits have improved in the last month. Call your broker for more details. ***Futures trading involves risk. The risk of loss in trading futures and/or options is substantial and each investor and/or trader must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results. On the Grains Grain and soy markets traded in relatively tight ranges overnight as volatility in outside markets eased. Crude oil futures remained firm, though gains were limited by a report that Iran had made indirect contact with the U.S. to discuss an end to the war – though it appears the offer is being brushed off in Washington. Gold rebounded from Tuesday amid safe-haven buying, while the U.S. dollar index pulled back. President Trump said the United States is prepared to deploy the U.S. Navy to escort oil and gas tankers through the Persian Gulf and provide insurance coverage for vessels transiting the region. The move is aimed at stabilizing global energy flows as the conflict with Iran disrupts shipping routes and pushes energy prices higher. Trump said U.S. military escorts could begin “as soon as possible” if necessary to protect commercial vessels traveling through the Strait of Hormuz — one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. The Strait of Hormuz handles ...

Attendance at the Commodity Classic supposedly reached a new record.  That was both surprising to me (and apparently the organizers at the event) considering the state of the ag economy.  I did feel that farmers in general were not quite as giddy as last year.  The prior year by the time the event took place, corn had rallied over $1.15 off its low, slowly poking its head above $5 per bushel.  Everyone kept whispering amongst themselves how much old crop they had left to gauge whether they could take advantage of that rally.  I remember following behind a couple of guys as we were walking into the convention, and they were discussing that very topic.  One of the guys scoffed at $5 corn, declaring that he was holding out for $5.50.  That proved to be a mistake.   Ironically, the market appears to be working on another rally during the Commodity Classic.  I wonder if we should start to come up with a name for it.  We have the John Deere low, so perhaps this is the Commodity Classic high?  Like last year, we advised rewarding this rally with additional sales.  We advised selling $5 calls.  I remember the crowd chuckled a little bit when I told them that time would tell how smart that was.  That turned out to be the high of 2025.   I can't tell you how Iran will respond in this war or how long it will last.  But I do believe that fundamentals still win out in the ...