CommStock Reports

The Facts of the Matter: China Removes U.S. Ag Tariffs     Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains   Soybeans pushed to for-the-move highs overnight, with the January contract reaching the highest level since July 2024. Wheat actively traded higher, with the December SRW contract extending to the highest price since the beginning of August. Buying in corn was reserved, with the December contract holding below last week's highs, as there has been no talk yet of Chinese demand for U.S. corn – and there may not be any – which would keep corn firmly in a follower's role.   The White House on Saturday released a fact sheet (see below for full details) that said Beijing will lift retaliatory tariffs it imposed in March, including those "on a vast swath of U.S. agricultural products," listing chicken, wheat, corn, cotton, sorghum, soybeans, pork, beef, aquatic products, fruits, vegetables and dairy products. The removal of the retaliatory tariffs will help make U.S. farm products competitive. Of note: There has still been no confirmation from Beijing on what it agreed to relative to ag purchases or tariffs removal.   Bloomberg reported a major Chinese grain importer made inquiries over the weekend for U.S. wheat cargoes for loading from December through February. The last Chinese purchases of U.S. wheat came in early October 2024.   The China International Import Expo (CIIE) 2025 is scheduled to take place in Shanghai from Nov. 5 to 10. Some ...

Grains look set up for light back and fill action to start the week. Traders will continue to respond to the follow-through or lack thereof on Chinese crop purchases. In the Headlines China headlines had January soybean futures rallying 55 cents last week to finish higher for a third week in a row. December corn gained 8 1/4 last week and Chicago wheat was up 21 1/2 cents. December live cattle dropped $4.25 and November feeders were down $15.42. December hogs were down just 62 cents but went lower for a fifth straight week. Private sources have reported up to seven cargos of U.S. soybeans sold to China amid the trade agreement, which was only a small start toward what the treasury secretary said China has promised to buy before the end of the year. Soybean price action into the new week will stay guided by speculation about new sales to China, which are not being reported officially during the shutdown. With China's state-owned grain buyers expected to build a reserve with U.S. beans, it was wondered whether a multi-million ton purchase would be announced by Chinese officials for a show of follow-through. Soybean basis should indicate how much the export market is heating up. Basis was noted to be weaker for Brazilian beans again last week as active farmer selling developed in response to higher flat price and growing comfort with progress in the new season, but now Brazilian export offers have broken lower to restore a price advantage against U.S. soybeans ...

Cattle futures remain near the top of the list for price performance over the last twelve months, pacing just behind gains for commodities including gold and coffee. On the opposite end of the spectrum are wheat futures, which were lower on the year along with cotton, oats, and lumber. The previous year of price action contrasts with what has lately been a reversion of trends that features cattle futures correcting lower while grains stage a recovery. History may eventually show this fall to have been a significant point of inflection for grains, livestock, and many other markets.   Leading and lagging the one-year performance list were coffee and orange juice. Both markets started turning lower at the start of 2025, but they would diverge this summer when coffee futures turned back around toward fresh all-time highs while orange juice futures kept going lower to cut prices by more than half from their one-year top. Coffee and orange juice display alternative paths forward for cattle and other markets that have recently paused following new all-time highs.   Gold has been yet another commodity to display sharp downside volatility after having stretched to fresh record highs this month. Gold and the rest of the financial market is left to digest the outcome of this week's Federal Reserve Bank meeting, where an interest rate cut was countered in its bullishness by an uncertain economic picture that is made cloudier by not having government reports during the shutdown. Easing China tensions were a small offset to gold getting ...

Morning Market Talk Below, you will find today's installment of Morning Market Talk. You can copy and paste the link below for this morning's episode.     On the Grains Soybeans paused overnight as traders assess the China buying situation. Corn and winter wheat markets drifted lower. Soybeans are poised for their second straight week of strong gains. Despite losses Thursday and overnight, corn and wheat futures are still mildly higher for the week.   Well… that didn’t take long… and it shouldn’t if China is going to purchase 12 MMT (441 million bu.) of soybeans for delivery by January, as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told us yesterday. Bloomberg reports that China bought at least four cargoes totaling around 250,000 MT for shipment late this year and early 2026, citing people familiar with the situation. State-owned COFCO was the reported buyer. This should and will be a recurring storyline if China is going to live up to what the Trump administration says it agreed to.   This followed reported purchases of three cargoes totaling 180,000 MT purchased by COFCO ahead of the trade deal between President Trump and China’s Xi Jinping.   If you are keeping score… that’s 430,000 MT… only 11.57 MMT to go. Reports of Chinese buying should be rapid.   Even if China rolls back some of its additional tariffs that were added for U.S. soybeans earlier this year, there’s little incentive for commercial buyers to make purchases. We haven’t heard anything on that front from either Chinese or U.S. officials.   Purchases by state-owned firms would likely go into strategic reserves. While ...

I am going to start this report with a shout-out to my grand-daughter Taylor Wuebker who is in Indianapolis at the National FFA convention. She is wearing one of those blue jackets with Iowa on the back. She is our next generation getting started in Agriculture. I am a proud grandfather. Finally…Some Answers! And More Questions   I have been posing a lot of questions recently needing answers and we are getting some this week. The really big question was how far that Trump and Xi would go in the trade war and the answer is that neither wanted to disengage fully on trade. Each for their own reasons sought a trade deal. We will remain engaged in trade with each other. I do believe that Trump miscalculated the leverage that he had over China and had expected a more lopsided result in his favor. Tik-Tok was not resolved and no high-end computer chips were committed to China. This handshake "deal" is just a pause in the confrontation that temporarily resolves some superficial issues without getting to the heart of the challenge. The confrontation is not going away and competition, posturing and positioning will continue. Neither Trump nor China was on the hill yet that they were willing to die on or allowed them to slay their opponent. Hopefully this agreement lasts longer than the one in Gaza.   The DEAL appears to be that China gets a 10% reduction in the tariff, now 20% on fentanyl reducing their overall tariff to 47%. That is ...

10/30/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Deal a Dud for Soybean Traders as Details Lacking New Reco Day 3: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in January 27 at $11 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 soybeans. Fill at $11.09. New Reco Day 3: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in December 26 @ $4.65 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 corn. Fill at $4.67. On the Grains Soybean futures reacted highly negatively to the U.S./China trade truce – with corn and wheat following to the downside – as implementation details were lacking. Of note: January soybeans have not entered the Oct. 27 chart gap, stopping 1/4 cent shy of that day’s low as of early this morning. President Trump said China would buy “tremendous amounts of U.S. soybeans and other ag products immediately.” He also wrote about “massive amounts of soybeans and sorghum” purchases. China's commerce ministry said it would expand agricultural trade with the U.S. but did not specify the scale or timing of purchases. Words like “tremendous” and “massive” are relative and subjective… traders wanted objective specifics. The deal might turn out to be a true win for soybeans and other ag goods, but on the surface… it’s a dud to traders due to the lack of details. Late breaking news... Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China has agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans this year. For the next three years, China has agreed to buy a minimum of 25 MMT annually for the ...

We wrapped up the 2025 harvest this weekend on the farm in NW Iowa. Corn yields were in line with what we were hoping for. We don't have the final weight tickets yet, but overall we should be north of 250 bpa….maybe more. We might have a shot at taking out our personal best of 261 bpa. We lost 10 to 20 bpa on the high wind (mini-derecho) event that occurred in August, causing sporadic lodging throughout the field. The corn stalk did not collapse but it snapped over enough, effectively shutting off nutrients to the ear. Some things we learned this year: Fungicide was the big one. It probably saved us 30 bpa or more. We also learned that not all fungicides are created equal, as some reported applying fungicide but still reported crop damage to disease. We also heard from folks that are starting to put a second fungicide application in their routine. Part of this depends on the growing season, as drier years may not warrant it. The challenging part of fungicide in my opinion, is you need to have it applied before there is any visible impact.  Speaking for our area only, in mid-August growers were saying that they didn't understand what all the hoopla was about regarding disease. Within two weeks disease pressure had spread and widespread panic ensued. Later day hybrid maturities yielded better. There could have been a 20 bpa yield difference between 108-day corn and 106-day corn. I saw some 111-day corn ...

10/29/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Makes Token Soybean Buys Ahead of Trump/Xi Meeting New Reco Day 2: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in January 27 at $11 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 soybeans. New Reco Day 2: Make a 10% sale for 2026 crop in December 26 @ $4.65 or best price. This would take us to 20% sold for 2026 corn. On the Grains Soybeans pulled back from recent strong gains overnight. Corn and wheat futures pivoted around unchanged. China booked its first known cargoes of U.S. soybeans for 2025-26 ahead of Thursday’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump and Xi are expected to finalize a deal that will include “substantial” soybean purchases by China, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Reuters reported the pre-meeting purchases by China included three cargoes (~180,000 MT; 6.6 million bu.) secured by state-owned COFCO for December-January shipment. As I noted on Tuesday, China watchers suggest the eventual purchase volume for delivery in early 2026 could be around 10 MMT (367 million bu.), though other purchases would be likely within the framework of the deal. Reuters reported China could buy about 8 MMT of U.S. soybeans for its strategic reserves in the December to May period, making purchases through state-owned enterprises COFCO and Sinograin. There remains uncertainty about timing of other purchases of U.S. soybeans and other ag goods and how the deal will be implemented. Some of those details should be known once the deal is inked on Thursday. Trump Reaches ...

10/28/2025 "America First -Canada Second!?" PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! The title is a quote that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick made at a Canadian conference in Toronto referring to the two countries auto industry. Lutnick made pointed comments about auto manufacturing in Canada, stating that "car assembly is going to be in America and there is nothing Canada can do about it". According to sources who attended the virtual meeting, Lutnick proclaimed that Canada must accept being "second" to the United States in the auto sector. He said that Canada might make a few auto-parts on which some tariffs would be applied but the autos will be assembled in the US. Negotiations over. There would be no deal on autos. Negotiations were not going anywhere before Trump ended them is a fit over the Reagon ad. Canadians do not feel very loved or respected by America right now and it has become hard for them to sort out their feelings of disgust for President Trump from the rest of us when they accept that Americans voted for him…some three times. I do not think that Americans had any idea that President Trump would treat Canadians as harshly as he has and a majority polled do not agree with it, but no one challenges Trump on this in this country. Canadians get a little sympathy but no real help from Americans. Support from Americans on Trump tariffs on Canada breaks down along partisan lines. US opinion however on whether Canada should become our ...

On the Grains Soybeans actively extended recent strong gains, overnight, with the January contract reaching its highest in a year and nearing $11. Corn and wheat continue to strengthen as well, though soybeans remain the clear upside leader.   Details of the U.S./China trade agreement reached over the weekend have been scarce, though China watchers tell me Beijing is weighing a plan to purchase around 10 MMT (~367 million bu.) of U.S soybeans to cover its domestic needs through February to stabilize supplies and ease pressure on Chinese crushers after months of tight margins.

President Trump says that he expects to finish the framework of a trade deal with China when meeting with Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday. Let's hope that this works out as he suggests it will. The first draft, put together by subordinates that the two presidents are supposed to finish, reportedly has China returning to our Ag markets in some significant way. Details are yet obtuse. Issues could change from what is now known when Presidents Trump and XI meet. US soybeans have become cheaper than Brazilian soybeans but that could change if China actually consummates some US purchases. There is nowhere near enough information yet to base any longer-term conclusions upon but if both sides opened the door to a deal, something is likely to come through it. Right now, nothing is so that would be an improvement. We have an example in Phase 1 of what didn't work. The Phase 1 trade agreement was never consummated in the manner that US interests were led to believe that it would be. According to the Peterson Institute, China only complied with 62% of what the two-year agreement said they should purchase overall and 77% of what they agreed to purchase of Ag commodities.   The USTR has initiated an investigation of their noncompliance in order to shine a light on it in current negotiations but little is likely to come of it. President Trump says that Biden did not force compliance. China differs, arguing that they did comply and when ...

10/27/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video U.S./China Framework Deal Sparks Market Euphoria New Reco Day 2: Roll Nov 10.40 calls to January futures price at the market. Roll Nov 10.20 puts to January futures price at the market.Traders looking to pick up more carry or wanting a longer horizon could also roll November options to May beans. On the Grains Soybeans are trading sharply higher this morning following the framework trade deal between U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators. Corn and wheat are also trading solidly higher. After two days of intensive talks in Malaysia, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that the U.S. and China reached a “very substantial framework” to avert President Trump’s threatened 100% tariffs on Chinese goods. In return, China is expected to delay its planned export-control regime on rare-earth minerals for one year and resume large-scale purchases of U.S. farm commodities. The deal is expected to be finalized by President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping when they meet in South Korea on Thursday. Soybeans appear to be the clear winner. While no precise tonnage has been disclosed, Bessent said U.S. soybean farmers “will feel very good, both for this season and the coming seasons for several years.” Beyond soybeans, trade experts believe sorghum and cotton could also be featured in Beijing’s broader farm-purchase package, though neither has been formally listed in the draft framework. U.S. officials familiar with the negotiations say both commodities are “eligible for inclusion” as China seeks to demonstrate breadth in its agricultural purchases. However, sources caution that near-term demand ...

Grains are called to open moderately firmer on optimism surrounding a potential U.S./China trade deal. Comments to the contrary or something new from President Trump could still pop up to sway sentiment for Monday's trading session. In the Headlines News about the China trade meeting in Malaysia was focused on the Chinese side confirming there had been a "basic consensus" reached while word from the U.S. treasury secretary was that the latest 100 percent tariff threat is now "off the table." The word "framework" was also used again to suggest that there would be something tangible for President Trump and Xi Jinping to discuss, but nothing complete enough to put signatures on when the two leaders meet Thursday. President Trump announced a 10 percent increase of tariffs against Canada after having suspended trade negotiations last week in response to Canada using clips from Ronald Reagan in an anti-tariff advertisement. More may come from the new spat this week as Trump attends the economic summit in South Korea along with Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney. Trump met with Brazilian President Lula on the sidelines of the conference in Malaysia, reportedly agreeing then to immediately continue trade negotiations with their respective teams. Tariffs against Brazil were raised from 10 to 50 percent in August, including on Brazilian beef, which last month had its imports into the U.S. drop by more than half from a year ago. Wednesday afternoon brings the end of the next Federal Reserve Bank meeting and a decision on interest rates. The expectation is ...

Some think that steak and eggs is the epitome of a great breakfast. Both ingredients have had issues that have priced this entrée out of the market for many consumers. Eggs went first. The egg laying industry was impacted by the bird flu H5N1 pandemic that required the culling of infected flocks to the point that the supply of eggs could no longer fill demand and demand was rationed. Our housekeeper said she stopped buying eggs and bakers changed their recipes to those that reduced or eliminated the number of eggs required. Eggs are a binder in baking and there are replacements. High prices cure high prices if left up to market forces alone. The bird flu pandemic interrupted normal market forces, not only by creating the supply disruption but also by inhibiting the ability of egg producers to respond to the market to recover egg production. Nebraska Medicine, published in February of this year, says that 166 mln birds have died or been euthanized in the attempt to manage the virus. Biosecurity measures have not been an anecdote. The virus's evolving nature and the time it takes for new flocks to mature have slowed the industry's recovery.   While the industry and USDA have improved how they handle infected flocks to return operations to production, they are all still subject to seasonal patterns that return the virus which produces much volatility in egg prices. The uncertainty of the supply of affordable eggs will also negatively impact demand. Additional treatment options, including ...

10/24/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Remain a Headline-Driven Market New Reco Day 1: Roll Nov 10.40 calls to January futures price at the market. Roll Nov 10.20 puts to January futures price at the market. On the Grains Soybeans are modestly weaker early this morning but are up sharply for the week and more than 40 cents above the mid-month low. Demand optimism provided support on Thursday amid an unconfirmed rumor China booked 1.26 MMT of U.S. soybeans. The lack of active follow through overnight signals any optimism is guarded. Corn also pulled back from Thursday’s gains overnight, while wheat pivoted around yesterday’s highs. Corn and wheat are also working on solid gains for the week. With trade talks between top U.S. and Chinese trade officials kicking off in Malaysia and a potential meeting between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping next Thursday, the soybean market will be hyper-attentive. It’s expected China’s exports of rare earths will be the focal point of the meetings, but soybeans are expected to make it onto the agenda. Trump has said he is prioritizing China resuming purchases of U.S. soybeans, backing off restrictions on rare earth exports and cracking down on fentanyl in exchange for a pause on higher tariffs. How much if any, will China be willing to concede? Trump Halts Trade Talks with Canada President Trump said he would immediately halt all trade negotiations with Canada, citing a Canadian advertisement against his tariffs plan featuring the voice of former President Ronald Reagan. Harvest reports Buena Vista Co., Iowa: Beans 71 bu/ac. ...

The president of the United States and the president of Columbia were exchanging words and slurs with each other of a nature that it will be hard for them to come back from. President Trump called Gustavo Petro a "drug trafficker and lunatic" and Petro came back calling president Trump a "murderer" as a Columbian was one those killed when the US military sank an alleged drug boat. President Trump has turned up the heat on South American drug trafficking which is initially being taken positively by many Americans as 48% approve while 38% do not (YouGov poll). Trump is literally targeting Venezuelan president Maduro in the same crosshairs that marked the boats before missiles blew them up. He wants him to know that a similar missile could target him and would like to scare Maduro into exile.   This brings us back to agriculture again. In recent years Columbia has become our 3rd best corn export customer taking over 11% of our corn exports in 2024 according to SF. 2 of every 100 bushels of corn produced in the US went to Columbia. The ACGA has put a lot of effort into developing this market that is now at risk. The U.S.-Colombia Trade Promotion Agreement, which took effect in 2012, has significantly boosted this trade relationship, with US pork exports to Colombia nearly quadrupling in volume by 2024. Whether Columbia has an Ag trade surplus or deficit with the US depends on what crops are included. An analysis from September 2025 estimated that ...

10/23/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybean Market Still Responsive to Trump On the Grains November soybeans poked above near-term resistance at $10.38 overnight, as traders continue to cling to hopes of a breakthrough in trade talks with China. Corn and wheat also traded higher overnight. On Wednesday, President Trump said he would speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Russian oil, resuming soybean purchases and rare earths exports. “We’ll make a deal on, I think, everything,” Trump said. If nothing else, price action signals the soybean market will be responsive if President Trump somehow gets China to agree to soybean purchases. That’s doubtful in my opinion unless 1) China needs soybeans (it doesn’t until at least early 2026) or 2) the price is too good to pass up (currently, it’s not despite discounts to Brazilian supplies). Some modest “goodwill” purchases are possible to make Trump think he “won” in negotiations, but I doubt China will agree to “x” number of bushels/tonnes of purchases over “x” time period or at “x” price. With that said, I hope the soybean market continues to cling to those hopes and gives you a better selling opportunity. China Confirms High-Level Trade Meeting China said Vice Premier He Lifeng, its top trade negotiator, plans to meet with U.S. officials in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, from Oct. 24 to 27 for the next round of trade talks. This could be a precursor for a potential meeting between President Trump and Xi next week. But that meeting remains up in the air, as both sides ...

10/22/2025 Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update Trump’s Soybean Export Estimates Drop 3 Billion Bushels PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Brazil’s planting pace has cooled off a bit heading into late October, but still closely tracks the historical average with roughly 35% complete overall.  We see this week leaning drier, but it appears to be short-lived as most rainfall becomes widespread by October 30th.  The forecast to start off November provides 2” – 3” for at least 85% of their growing region.  Farmers will use the break in the weather to accelerate planting.  It would not surprise me if some of those growers that started in September will wrap things up in the next several days.  Meanwhile growers in the Northeast are just getting started.  The market may trade higher following drier headlines, but it would appear to be short-lived.   Therefore, we advise against chasing rallies. We highlighted last week how during La Niña years, we typically see much drier weather in Southern Brazil and Argentina.  Longer term forecasts are never as accurate.  But they are indicating those same La Niña affects will persist heading into December, with dryness in Rio Grande do Sul, extending into Paraguay and neighboring Argentina.  La Niña seasons have not been kind to RGDS, wiping out as much as 20 MMT from the Southern region of Brazil. Banco Itaú recently released a study arguing that Brazil has nearly 70 million acres of “high-quality” pasture that could be converted to row crop production.  Notice I used the term ...

10/22/2025 Farmer Payments to Resume, Trade Aid Awaits End of Gov’t Shutdown Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk today due to technical issues. On the Grains Soybeans traded higher overnight but as of early this morning were unable to push above Tuesday’s overnight highs. Corn and wheat traded narrowly around unchanged. The Trump administration will release more than $3 billion in farm funding that had been frozen during the government shutdown. USDA plans to reopen county Farm Service Agency offices on Thursday to distribute funds drawn from the Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) to stabilize farm incomes, prevent farm bankruptcies and maintain rural support. Farmers had been unable to access assistance since Oct. 1 due to furloughs and shuttered USDA operations. Officials said the reopened county offices will operate with limited staff — two employees per site, five days a week — paid through carry-over administrative funds. The resumption of operations will allow access to farm loan processing, ARC/PLC payments and other programs that have been halted by the government shutdown. The administration is also considering a new $10 billion relief package for farmers affected by the trade war, but that proposal remains stalled amid the shutdown. President Trump is expected to press Chinese President Xi Jinping to resume soybean purchases if the two meet on the sidelines of a summit in South Korea next week. But as I noted yesterday, Beijing appears to have more leverage than the U.S. in trade negotiations. “China’s strong position in global supply chains gives it some bargaining power with U.S. importers in the ...

Silver was my favorite 2023 commodity. I still own it. Gold has become my favorite 2025 commodity. I am a buy-and-hold kind of guy… more investor than trader. I produced a special report on gold and silver on March 3rd 2025 which concluded with this paragraph.   "Silver has gotten cheap in price as a historical ratio to gold. Gold has been making new price highs while silver is far from it. I see this only as gold leading silver in the precious metals bull markets. I have both physical gold and silver ETFs in my turtle portfolio. I did not buy gold because I thought that it might rise $100 ounce in order to trade it. We have seen a number of commodities trade at multiples of historical prices and I think that there is a strong possibility that such a trajectory event is possible for gold. How high can gold go in our upside-down world? I bought it to hold it." You can re-read the entire report by clicking this link Report on Gold   I still have both silver and gold and am comfortable continuing to hold it. After gold traded sideways from late April to late August, pausing in what I believed was a bull market, I added to the family gold position. Gold then broke out of the range to the upside in September in a powerful leg higher. Both have now made all-time highs and I continue to think that the bull market in these precious metals is ...

10/21/2025 Rare Earths Vs. Soybeans: China Has More Leverage Morning Market Talk Due to technical difficulties there will not be a Morning Market Talk this Morning. On the Grains Soybeans extended recent strong gains overnight. November soybeans are trading above the short-term, intermediate and long-term moving averages – the strongest technical stance since late summer. Corn is modestly favoring the upside overnight, while wheat futures are mostly weaker. Just two days after saying rare earths was one of three main items U.S. officials would discuss with China in upcoming trade talks, President Trump signed a pact with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to boost U.S. access to rare earths and other critical minerals. The two countries will jointly invest in mines and processing projects in Australia to boost production of rare earths, an effort to counter China’s tight grip on the supply chains of the key metals. Australia ranks fourth in rare earth reserves, though far behind No. 1 China, which accounts for nearly as much as the next 10 countries combined. U.S. dependence on China’s rare earth metals would appear to be greater than China’s reliance on U.S. soybeans, giving Beijing leverage. API Flip-Flops E15 Stance The American Petroleum Institute said on Tuesday it opposes legislation to expand year-round sales of E15 gasoline, a reversal of stance. API said it does not oppose year-round E15 sales of the blend containing 15% ethanol on their own but stressed the bill must now be paired with other measures that address new changes in the fuel market. “Refiners are now navigating shifting federal ...

2025 Soybeans are in the bin…now what? Farmers are holding, waiting for events to unfold. The price of soybeans has taken margins underwater but you don’t take a loss until you sell. The primary information needed, being waited for, is “will there be a trade deal with China?” and “how much will the Trump trade-aid ACH turn out to be?”. A Trump/Xi summit and announcement of Trump trade-aid ACH details when the government reopens someday, should provide some clarity on both. Farmers are roughly $1.50 bushel in the red on their soybeans. That creates a great reluctance to sell. The last information that we had from USDA, forecast soybean production at 4.301 bln bushels. That would mean that the Trump trade aid ACH would have to be $6.45 bln to get soybean farmers to breakeven. Something less than that would be disappointing. You can’t live off of breakeven. ARC/PLC subsidy payments do not come until October 2026. This is a moving number because if farmers get $1.50 bushel in aid and the market falls further, the loss increases and they do not breakeven again. Nothing else makes a profit either so whether you grew wheat, peanuts, rice, cotton, corn or sorghum…all of them require a comprehensive Trump trade-aid ACH and subsidy payments to lift farm grain production revenue to the level of cost of production. This brings up another question…how long can farmers afford to hold soybeans? As long as the bankers will let them? Trump ACH trade-aid should give ...

10/20/2025 Farmers Need Relief Now; Soybean Talks Planned There will not be a Morning Market Talk due to technical difficulties. On the Grains Soybean futures rallied overnight amid comments that soybeans remain a top priority in upcoming U.S./China trade talks. November soybeans are nearing the Oct. 8-9 double-top at $10.30. Corn and wheat rode the strength in soybeans to modest gains. President Trump listed rare earths, fentanyl and soybeans as the top issues with China as the two sides prepared for high-level trade talks this week and a planned meeting of leaders at the end of the month. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng are scheduled to meet in Malaysia later this week. Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping have planned a meeting in South Korea at the end of October. For agriculture, soybean demand from China is a must-have, though that has been the case for months with no results. The window for selling soybeans to China is closing for 2025-26 barring a major breakthrough in trade talks. Official Chinese data from September confirmed what we already knew… China imported no U.S. soybeans for the month – the first time since November 2018 that shipments fell to zero. Instead, China turned to South American soybeans last month… and will continue to do so in the months ahead. Soybean imports from Brazil jumped 29.9% from year-ago to 10.96 MMT, accounting for 85.2% of China's total, while shipments from Argentina surged 91.5% to 1.17 MMT, 9% of the total. For the January-September period, China imported 63.7 MMT of ...

Grains are called to open steady or slightly firmer in follow up of a positive finish last week. In the Headlines Friday was a relatively quiet session for the grains, but a fast mover for cattle. Cattle futures gapped down sharply on the report of President Trump saying, "We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef that's going to bring the price down." Speculation is that the news tied to Trump's meeting earlier in the week with Argentina's president, so a removal of tariffs could be possible for beef imports from Brazil and Argentina. Columbia was the subject of the president's ire on Sunday with Truth Social post that called out the Columbian president as "an illegal drug leader" and announced that foreign aid payments and subsidies will no longer be granted to Columbia. Having been a consistent top five buyer of U.S. corn, wheat, and pork, Columbia is a key destination for shipments via the Pacific Northwest ports, which can reach Columbia's Pacific coast without having to transit the Panama Canal. The Israel/Hamas ceasefire was being tested by Israel resuming airstrikes in response to alleged attacks on Israeli soldiers by militants in Gaza. Trump's envoy will be back in Israel this week to work on codifying the ceasefire and implementing the next stages of the peace deal. Basis was the word of the week as improved bids from soybean processors were being talked about as a signal of farmer selling being slim. Corn basis had already been on ...

President Trump and his negotiating team has put together a number of trade framework agreements with several nations including the UK, EU, Japan, and South Korea. He has also imposed tariffs on many other nations while they continue to work on framework agreements. Other countries are waiting in the quiche to negotiate a framework. In the interim, tariff revenue rolls in. A framework agreement is an outline of the big stuff, essentially a term sheet, that will be used to flesh out a full trade agreement. Trade agreements are comprehensive and take time to weave in all the details as negotiation on the more minor issues continues. Mexico and Canada have the USMCA, (Canadians call it CUSMA) that covers 85% of our trade with them. Trump has imposed some crushing tariffs on anything outside of the existing agreement. The USMCA is up for review next year but most expect them to just virtually start over. Both Canada and Mexico are waiting for the other shoe to drop as Trump continues to add random tariffs on additional products such as movies, lumber, furniture, pharmaceuticals and such, to purposely grate on them. President Trump sees our two North American neighbors as competitors rather than the partners that they see themselves as being.   There are some countries such as Switzerland on which he has imposed reciprocal tariffs, in their case 39%, with no framework. Negotiations with Switzerland have since broken down. Same with India. The carrot being that if they negotiate a framework, then ...