CommStock Reports

I had not ever heard of Machado, until the Norwegian Nobel Committee named her to receive their Nobel Peace Prize for 2025. She is from Venezuela and was named for promoting democratic rights. There is not a lot of that going on around in the world these days. Things have been shifting in the opposite direction of democracy. She has been hard to find on purpose as if President Nicholos Madura could get his hands on her she may not ever be seen again.   She got the protests to his regime going in Venezuela. When contacted over her award she was quoted, "I do not deserve this". I am sure that president Trump would suggest an alternative to her selection. However, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, when a Senator, promoted her nomination before joining the administration. President Theodore Roosevelt was warlike but won a Nobel Peace Prize in 1906 for negotiating the end to a war between Russia and Japan. He was the first American to win the prize. I think that President Trump fits that category for wrangling a peace deal between Israel and Hamas. That was no small feat. He lacks the humility of Machado. Maybe that counts with the Nobel Committee. They often award the prize to someone whose life was endangered by what they did. They also focus on giving the award to someone who promotes democracy. President Trump misses checking that box.   The previous year's Nobel Peace Prize winners were a group of Hiroshima and Nagasaki A-bomb ...

10/16/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Grain Yield Reality Check: Harvest Disappoints USDA Targets On the Grains Good morning, David Shively in for Brian today. Harvest continues pace. There are spots where we are hearing of record/near record yields, but these areas seem to be few and far between. Northeast Missouri might have raised their best corn ever (or at least right up there) but their beans, while above average, were damaged by the August/September dry spell, and aren’t setting any records. Iowa corn has suffered under disease (southern rust) pressure, Illinois crops are good, but generally not as good as last year. A producer in Oklahoma told me his irrigated corn was exceptional, but he expects to be disappointed in his beans. There were dry spots out east, variability in the west… At the end of the day to reach the ridiculously high USDA target yield for corn, we were going to need record or near record yields throughout most of the corn belt. At this point I feel fairly confident telling you that record yields in Northeast Missouri don’t make up for non-record yields in the I-states. While there is still a lot of harvest to go, the USDA yield number seems unachievable. That said, one must remember that the USDA’s job is to keep food cheap, not to help the farmer. So, when will the USDA admit that their yield number is off? With no thumb on the scale, one would think perhaps by the end of ...

We just started planting this week on the farm in Brazil, as we have been patiently waiting for the rainy season to begin. The bulk of our crop will get planted in November. We see scattered showers this week for large portions of soybean production areas that will be hit or miss. The rainfall dissipates the further Northeast you go. Next week we see an unusual pocket of dryness in the Center of Brazil's Grain belt. As long as its duration is brief, most growers will plant right through it. The 30-day forecast that takes us into mid-November looks fairly solid, and so we are inclined to believe that any dry weather will be temporary. We have noticed subsoil moisture has not yet been replenished in Southern Mato Grosso, and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and Northern Goiás. We correctly estimated that planting progress would slow down last week as farmers waited for the forecast to improve. Growers there may proceed with caution, however, it would appear that chances of rainfall improve as we get closer to November. It is also worth mentioning that the GFS is much less friendly for precipitation.   The IRI model indicates a 60% chance of La Niña in Brazil for the last three months of 2025. This generally means a drier climate to the South and wetter in the North. So far it has been the exact opposite, with heavy rains being accumulated from RGDS to the state of Parana. Weather models indicate a shift ...

10/15/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video The Last Bit of Toothpaste On the Grains Good morning, Justin McKinney here, I’m filling in for Brian and am fresh out of the bullpen. Overnight row crops were weaker, following a decline in crude oil prices and an overall lack of enthusiasm in the two complexes. Support on both corn and beans could be tested today. December corn at $4.10 and November beans at $10.01 (yesterday’s low) will need to hold; we don’t want to turn the weekly charts lower. Weekly corn shipments, which were released a day late due to the holiday, totaled 44.5 MMT. This number was below expectations, sharply lower than last week, and also the lowest of the 25/26 marketing year. However, the good news is that cumulative inspections now stand at 313 MBU, well ahead of last year's 190 MBU. The "needed” pace to meet the USDA’s 2.97 BBU program is 52.9 MBU/WK, nearly the same as what we “needed" at this time last year. Top destinations were Mexico: 299,000 MT, Colombia: 203,000 MT, South Korea: 140,000 MT, and Japan: 112,000 MT. My one word of caution is that if they ever open the Mexican border for feeder cattle, we will likely see significant drops in sales. On soybeans, export inspections reached 36.5 MBU, meeting the high end of expectations and significantly surpassing last week’s 28.8 MBU. This marks the highest total for the 25/26 marketing year. Cumulative inspections are at 149 MBU, which is 26% below last year’s 201 ...

Fertilizer prices are going to increase the cost of production of corn in 2026 which is counter-intuitive to what one might have expected given low corn prices. Low prices are supposed to cure low prices by reducing marginal production acres but Trump farm-aid ACH payments could well make up for low corn prices and short-circuit the expected response to market signals. What if we plant as many corn acres again in 2026? It is not as if other crops offer alternative profitability. We will grow 70% corn again on our farm.   The NCGA says that fertilizer will represent 36% of the cost of growing corn next year. The higher cost of fertilizer is likely to eat up any cost savings in other inputs such as fuel so that the overall cost of production remains elevated relative to the price of corn. Farm-aid will pass right through farm bank accounts supporting agribusiness, rents and land values.   NCGA Chart Explanation: "Heightened Concern for Fertilizer Costs and Corn Prices for the 2026 Crop." Given metrics for current fertilizer and corn prices, it costs a record number of bushels to buy fertilizer. For that matter, it requires a record number of bushels to but most anything. For example, "StoneX Financial Inc. calculations using New Orleans wholesale fertilizer prices and the new crop corn contract show the fertilizer and corn price ratio is the worst in history for phosphate, second worst in history for UAN, and third worst in history for Urea. This heightens concern as corn growers look ...

10/14/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Bears Growling, Shutdown Persists, Trade Tensions Escalate On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat traded higher at points overnight but are under pressure this morning. Wheat posted contract lows, with SRW futures falling to the lowest level on the continuation chart since August 2020. Gov’t Shutdown Continues as Senate Returns The U.S. government shutdown is now 14 days long and there are no signs the stalemate over a short-term spending measure will end anytime soon. The Senate will reconvene at 3 p.m. ET, with a vote on a House-passed stopgap spending measure planned for around 5:30 p.m. ET. The vote is again expected to fall shy of the 60 needed for passage. Both sides continue to point fingers and blame the other instead of compromising. Congress’ inability to complete the appropriations process is no longer a partisan problem — it’s a systemic one. Until leaders in both parties agree to prioritize governing over gamesmanship, the nation will continue lurching from one fiscal crisis to the next. The House is not in session this week, but Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries called Democrats back to Washington, D.C. for an evening meeting “to discuss a path forward.” Betting odds from Polymarket (An online system where you can buy “yes” or “no” shares on a wide variety of topics depending on your prediction. Buying shares is like betting on the outcome. Odds shift in real time as other traders bet.) are greater than 99% the shutdown will last to Oct. 15 or ...

The soybean harvest here was a flash event…with conditions so favorable that it was quickly over soon after it started. 90+^ temps in September can do that. The soybeans dried down too quickly which cost farmers something from reduced moisture. When soybeans hit 13% moisture, next they were 10% as part of the flash. They went into bins quickly with brief traffic at elevators here. Harvest basis was as bad as I remember it the past few years at 75 cents under at our local elevator where we have our condo-storage. That should improve soon with the crop now put away in the bin. The basis should also be helped by the Trump tariff aid ACH. When that money gets into farmers hands, noting that payment timing is important, it should temporarily take the edge off the financial squeeze that soybean farmers are experiencing allowing them to keep the bin doors closed which tightens spot supply. Such improvement may not be long lived without a trade deal where China resumes purchases. Basis will be impacted differently where exports suffer most given low Mississippi river levels and the absence of PNW port export demand. Giving farmers money so they do not have hair on fire forcing sales is one thing but someone still has to buy the soybeans. That, it appears, will not yet be China. New tariffs on China is a sign of Trump desperation in these negotiations, not theirs. I think that president Trump has made a huge miscalculation ...

10/13/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybeans Pause After Trump Softens China Rhetoric On the Grains After holding support at last Friday’s lows, November soybeans and December corn posted modest bounces overnight. SRW wheat futures fell to new lows.Trump Softens Rhetoric on China After saying he was cancelling a planned meeting with China’s Xi Jinping scheduled for late this month in South Korea on Friday and then threatening to impose an additional 100% tariffs on imports from China starting Nov. 1, President Trump took a softer tone on Sunday. Trump posted on Truth Social, “Don’t worry about China, it will all be fine! Highly respected President Xi just had a bad moment. He doesn’t want Depression for his country, and neither do I. The U.S.A. wants to help China, not hurt it!!!” Trump’s softer language signals a rhetorical pivot. Calling the incident a “moment” suggests Xi’s actions were transient, rather than reflective of sustained policy — allowing Trump to criticize without permanently alienating diplomatic possibility. Trump’s “bad moment” line may be a communication tactic: a signal to markets and foreign governments that Washington is pushing hard — but not blindly. It allows for a face-saving pathway back to talks, should Beijing respond with restraint. China Doing Fine Without U.S. Soybean Imports China imported 12.9 MMT of soybeans in September, up 4.9% from August and 13.2% more than year-ago. That was a record for September and the second highest total for any month ever. China’s preliminary data doesn’t include country of origin, though the U.S. accounted for ...

Grains are called lower at the open following a bearish finish on Friday and the subsequent escalation of the trade war with China after the market closed. New developments could occur leading into and through the overnight session, particularly from any possible comments to come from President Trump. In the Headlines Grains started back lower on Thursday last week as tensions with China fared up, first with new Chinese restrictions on U.S. computer chips, more controls on rare earth exports, and reciprocal charges against U.S. ships. The U.S. fees against Chinese vessels and vice-versa are set to go into effect on Tuesday. The grain selloff was extended on Friday as President Trump suggested cancelling his meeting planned with China's Xi Jinping for the end of the month. A follow-up post from Trump on Truth Social announced, "the United States will impose a Tariff of 100% on China, over and above any Tariff that they are currently paying. Also on November 1st, we will impose Export Controls on any and all critical software." The ceasefire between Israel and Hamas was holding as of Sunday morning while the Islamic militants reportedly prepare to release 20 living hostages on Monday in partial exchange for Israel to let go about 250 Palestinian prisoners. President Trump was scheduled to travel to Egypt on Monday to mark the occasion. The ramifications of any possible problem arising with the accord are growing as Palestinians relocate into the previously occupied Gaza City. Feeder cattle futures reached new record highs again last week ...

This next middle week of October has historically averaged near the halfway point for the U.S. corn harvest, with soybeans usually having just crossed 50 percent complete this week. It does not feel like much is missing not having the harvest progress reports while the government is shut down, seeing as it is easy to tell that most areas are getting crops harvested and put away quickly. Harvest is moving fast even with more bushels than ever to bring in. Still, the rate of harvest says something about weather, not just while the combines are rolling, but also as current harvest conditions are an extension of the growing season. The common urgency to harvest this season's corn and soybean crops amid rapid drying conditions is a signal with negative implications about yield results and quality, although this is a concern that is already well digested by market participants. The USDA yield updates were suspended by the shutdown this week, but private estimates were circulating to show most predictions within 183-186 bushels per acre for corn yield and 52-54 for soybean yield, with anything landing in those ranges still new record highs for both crops.   Another report that is on pause is the commitments of traders report that breaks down changes in the futures and options positions held by speculative funds and commercial merchants and producers.  This weekly update may be more important than most, if not all, of the missing USDA reports, since it can take away the ability for the ...

10/10/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Low Man Wins On the Grains Soybeans faced follow through selling overnight and are now poised for weekly losses. Corn and wheat are also lower this morning and posting losses for the week. China’s attempt to gain leverage is accelerating ahead of planned trade talks between President Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea at the end of this month. After a move to tighten export controls of rare earth metals exports earlier this week, Beijing will slap new port fees on U.S. ships and started an antitrust investigation into Qualcomm Inc. Beginning Oct. 14, China will start collecting fees on ships owned by U.S. companies and individuals, as well as those built in America, starting Oct. 14. The move coincides with the date Washington plans to impose new charges on large Chinese ships calling at U.S. ports. Besides levies on Chinese ships, the Trump administration is reportedly considering barring Chinese airlines from flying over Russia on flights to and from the U.S. and expanding sanctions to further prevent the likes of Huawei Technologies Co. accessing restricted U.S. goods. It’s a game of leverage between two heavyweights in which the low man typically wins. Soybeans are caught squarely in the middle. China still hasn’t booked any U.S. soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year, instead turning to supplies from Brazil and Argentina. Trump said Thursday he plans to discuss soybean purchases with Xi at their planned meeting. Every news outlet across the U.S. and some globally have found a soybean farmer to interview ...

10/09/2025 Pull that Foot Back in There! PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian's Afternoon Market Update The US economy is believed to be growing at a 3.8% rate. That would not be bad but is widely uneven between states and sectors. Some calculate that 80% of that growth is related to AI investments by the largest companies while the general economy is actually deteriorating without that. Got AI? Real gross domestic product decreased in 39 states in the first quarter of 2025. Moody’s tracks the economy on a state-by-state basis and says that by their analysis that 22 states are in recession, Iowa being one of them, with another 13 states treading water. The economic hardship of soybean farmers is getting all of the good press so that wheel should get greased first from USDA. Iowa's real GDP contracted by 6.1% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, placing it 49th among all states. Iowa’s Unemployment Rate is at 3.80%, compared to 3.70% last month and 3.20% last year. Much better than the 4.2% US unemployment rate, Iowans are working harder but for less. President Trump just blew away wind turbines and has not deregulated E-15 nationwide or deregulated low-carbon ethanol which are Iowa’s only available contribution to energy economic growth development. Moody’s says that two blue states, California and New York, are wobbling and should they tip over then the downturn would go national. Neither are Trump favorites so will get little/no help from him as ...

10/09/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Basis Firms, China Still Needs Beans Before Brazil’s Harvest On the Grains November soybeans pulled back overnight after closing above the 100-day moving average for the first time since Sept. 18 on Wednesday. As has been the case recently, corn followed soybeans’ direction. Wheat traded higher overnight. Corn and bean basis has improved during harvest, especially in the eastern Corn Belt and along the middle to lower Mississippi River. That typically doesn’t happen. It could be caused by lower-than-expected yields or farmers storing more bushels out of fields instead of marketing them – or both. No matter the cause, the only reason for basis to rise during harvest is if there isn’t enough supply to meet near-term commitments – whether for exports or commercial use. Keep a close watch on your local basis for sales opportunities. Sizing Up China’s Need for Soybeans A usually reliable China source indicated the following: China will need 7 MMT to 8 MMT of soybeans before Brazil’s new-crop soybeans are available. China has around 25 MMT of soybeans in storage. It is uncertain how interested China is in tapping those reserve soybeans. China will likely be a reticent buyer of soybeans in the near term, wanting to fuel some inflation in the sector. If talks between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at the end of October/early November go well, China could make “token” purchases of U.S. soybeans totaling 3 MMT to 5 MMT. China Adds to Trade War Leverage Overseas exporters of ...

Soybean planting continues at rapid pace in Brazil, but more rainfall will be needed to maintain their accelerated pace. One grower in Mato Grosso felt that some growers in the central part of the state may have to replant, as they were nearly half done by October 1st, well ahead of schedule. This despite the short-term rainfall outlook turning dry. It does seem that rainfall begins to fill in more next week, however, we are unsure that the seed can wait that long. Temperatures are above average, well into the 90's, and storms are needed to cool things off. Until then, the seed bakes in the soil, compromising germination. Growers are in two groups. One group of growers who started early, stopped planting to wait for rain to catch up. They will check their stands before making any replant decisions later this month. Another group of farmers that have not yet started, will advance planting leading up to the showers next week.   The bulk of the planting has taken place in the state of Parana where they are nearly 45% complete, and Mato Grosso where they are 20% complete. The northeast has not received a rain yet and will wait until they get one before starting later this month. While rainfall does appear to become more widespread next week, the long-term forecast through the end of the month still shows below average precipitation for Mato Grosso do Sul and Goiás which collectively represent approximately 17% of the soybean production in Brazil. ...

10/08/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video What USDA Might Have Estimated in October Reports On the Grains Soybeans are mildly favoring the upside early this morning after trading lower at the start of the overnight session. Corn and wheat are modestly lower. USDA’s Crop Production and WASDE Reports originally scheduled for Thursday have been suspended due to the government shutdown. Those reports will likely be canceled if the shutdown doesn’t end very soon. Markets are relying on private crop estimates for direction. Following are analysts’ pre-report estimates for what would have been USDA’s Thursday data release. My October estimates: 185.2 bu. per acre and 16.677 billion bu. for corn; 53.0 bu. per acre and 4.257 billion bu. for soybeans. The U.S. government shutdown entered its eighth day, with no signs that a temporary spending measure deal is close. No negotiations on the spending impasse appear to be underway. Instead, Senate Republicans continue to vote on the House-passed measure and Democrats refuse to budge. So… the shutdown grinds on. In the latest development, more than 250,000 federal employees didn’t receive their scheduled paychecks this week. Another two million will go without pay if the impasse extends into a third week. On Tuesday, a draft legal memo from the White House Office of Management and Budget said that workers won’t necessarily get back pay once the shutdown ends. President Trump has threatened to announce plans to lay off thousands of workers in the coming days and his budget director has suspended federal funding for projects in ...

It has been a while since I have updated my shared thoughts on the Mid-East. Where I left off some time ago is that I expected that Israel would follow through on its vow to destroy Hamas no matter how much collateral damage it caused in Gaza. As predicted, the Palestinians have paid a horrible human price as a shield for Hamas and as predicted it did not give Israel pause to stop. I said that I expected that Israel would lose the public relations battle but act undeterred to achieve its main objective. They went so far as to attempt to kill Hamas leaders in Qatar which failed. President Trump is publicly all over the place seemingly on both sides when convenient, offering suggestions, some of which are fanciful, for how to reinvent Gaza. He jumped into the forefront when the opportunity presented itself to strike Iranian nuclear assets. He will superficially criticize Bibi Netanyahu when it means little and supports him when it militarily means a lot. Trump opposes recognizing a Palestinian state in Gaza now being promoted by other western nations. Hamas still holds hostages, dead and alive, a major bargaining chip, taken in their October 2023 terrorist offensive in Israel that started this round of conflict. Trump wants them returned for his reasons. Hamas has taken heavy losses but have not been eradicated. The conflict goes on in the form of new negotiations as Trump sent his chief negotiator and son-in-law to Egypt to push his ...

10/07/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Markets Piecing Together Data Amid Ongoing Gov’t Shutdown On the Grains Soybeans initially traded lower overnight but have firmed early this morning. December corn futures followed a similar path. Wheat futures traded very tight ranges around unchanged overnight. The U.S. government shutdown is nearly one week old at this point, with the only glimmer of hope it may end relatively soon being a comment by President Trump on Monday that he was open to negotiating with Democrats over health care subsidies to bring an end to the funding stalemate. However, he later backtracked, saying Democrats must pass a stopgap spending measure to re-open the government first – a stance GOP leaders have repeated over the past six days. Democratic leaders said there were no talks with Trump underway. So… the shutdown continues and markets are left without key government data, instead relying on private figures and forecast for direction. September Dryness Takes Top Off Aussie Wheat Crop Lower-than-normal September rainfall in southeastern Australia will take the top off the country’s bumper wheat crop. The southeastern states, which account for about one-quarter of the country’s annual wheat output, received about half of the historical average rainfall last month. Dry soils as temps seasonally rise could trim wheat production by 500,000 MT to 1 MMT. In September, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) forecast wheat production at 33.8 MMT, 22% above the 10-year average. Lula Asks Trump to End Tariffs on Brazilian Goods Brazil’s Luiz Inacio Lula ...

When we began our planning for 2025 crops, we made the assumption very early that there would be a trade war tariff related to Trump ACH paid to farmers made at some point. There was a similar payment made in Trump's first term, funded from the CCC. The CCC funding is depleted so they will have to find a new source of funding. That will be tariff revenue. There are a lot of "ifs" but we could see that through a combination of revenue insurance (regardless of yield), Trump tariff aid ACHs, PLC/ARC payments to come later and some help from marketing that we should be able to hold our money together this year. I still think that will be the case. Basis our advice, a significant portion of that risk should still be covered by revenue insurance and hedges. The Trump tariff aid is starting to come together, reportedly close to an announcement. It will take a functioning government for USDA to be able to make the payments and they did not have the tariff aid package complete before the shut-down. They wish to fund it more directly from tariff revenue. FOX news was repeatedly telling listeners of the plight that soybean farmers are in over trade, adding to the drumbeat of news coverage over this issue. The Argentine bailout and related sale of soybeans to China also puts the administration under pressure to keep the promise of having US farmer's backs. The situation is real. They are not ...

10/06/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Gov’t Shutdown Drags into Second Week On the Grains November soybeans gapped lower at the start of the overnight session but have rebounded to fill the gap and are higher early this morning. Corn and the winter wheat markets are also modestly firmer after two-sided overnight trade. As the U.S. government shutdown enters its second week, pressure is mounting on both the White House and Congress amid growing legal and political fallout. Federal employee unions have gone to court to block the Trump administration from carrying out mass layoffs during the funding lapse, arguing the move would be illegal under federal law. The standoff now centers on a fifth Senate vote scheduled for today, with Republicans pushing to advance a stopgap funding measure through Nov. 21 and Democrats holding firm on demands to preserve health care subsidies. When will the shutdown end? There is no definitive answer at this time, but some veteran Washingtonians signal by the end of this week, as pressure builds to get something done. Others note the deeply entrenched positions by both political parties, saying the shutdown could last longer. Amid the government shutdown, USDA has cancelled or postponed its scheduled data releases this week, including the Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports, which had been slated for Thursday. Markets will have to focus on private crop forecasts instead of USDA’s estimates this month. There also will be no update on harvest progress from USDA this afternoon. I traveled to Sioux ...

Barring new developments that could still pop up before the open on issues like trade or the Middle East peace deal, grains should face a slight sell off to the start the week as short hedgers catch up after a busy two days of harvest. In the Headlines Eyes were on the Middle East as Israel continued strikes against Gaza despite calls from President Trump for the bombing to stop. Hamas fighters have agreed to parts of a peace deal that involves sending home Israeli hostages. Trump has sent his son-in-law Jared Kushner and special envoy Steve Witkoff to Egypt to advance the terms of Israel's withdrawal from Gaza that would precede the formation of a new Palestinian government. President Trump was on hand at Naval Station Norfolk to celebrate the Navy's 250th anniversary. Trump's command of the military was otherwise making headlines over the weekend as the National Guard was being deployed in Chicago to help quell protests over active immigration enforcement in the city. Plans to send federal troops into Portland were temporarily blocked by a judge's ruling on Saturday. More details are expected by Tuesday on economic aid payments for soybean farmers hurt by tariffs. New developments were few in the trade war with China as significant progress is thought unlikely before President Trump and Xi Jinping meet at the end of the month. Most recently there has been talk of China's willingness to promise investments of up to $1 trillion, but critics say Chinese desires to build factories and industrial ...

Bullish or bearish on the grains? Consider both sides of the issues and decide whether you are on one end of the extreme or somewhere closer to the middle. Nothing in the market is black and white, especially the political factors, so form your outlook based on objectivity about what you think will happen rather than what you want to happen or what you think should happen.   Bearish: The government shutdown is going to delay the crop reports from coming out to confirm lower corn and soybean yields while data may also be kept away from the public if China and other countries are busy buying U.S. grain exports. Commodity trading funds could turn long the grains without having their position changes telegraphed. Having no updates on crop progress means traders will not know when harvest activity has peaked.   Bullish: It is a good thing not have USDA slow-playing the necessary yield cuts when evidence from the farmer and the market responses from the commercial side will be enough to corroborate missed yield potential this season. Not having the grain export data is no big deal if positive headlines about China restore confidence in soybean demand for the long-run. If the funds are buying grains, we will know about it; if prices do not move up significantly in reflection of aggressive fund buying, they will catch up quickly once the trader positions report is released again. The positions report should eventually show that farmers were not overly aggressive sellers off the combine ...

10/03/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Will Soybeans Go for A Three-Peat? On the Grains Soybeans are weaker early this morning but are higher for the week. Corn and wheat are mildly leaning down this morning and lower for the week. The big question to close the week is whether soybeans will catch another wave of buying late in the session, as has been the case the past two days. As of Sept. 23, funds were short ~25,000 contracts of soybean futures, but they have covered some of those. Unfortunately, we won’t have an update on funds’ positioning until the government shutdown ends. Gov’t shutdown: Day 3 Democrats and Republicans remain deadlocked on a short-term funding measure required to reopen the government. Leaders of both parties are digging in their heels, sticking to their positions. Lower-level negotiations have failed to strike a deal and another Senate vote today on a House-passed temporary spending bill is expected to fail. The Senate is unlikely to hold votes over the weekend, almost certainly pushing the shutdown into next week. Due to the government shutdown, the September employment data that would have been issued won’t be released. Private companies' payrolls dropped by a seasonally adjusted 32,000 in September, according to an ADP report released Wednesday. That was the largest decline since March 2023. ADP also revised its August numbers – from an increase of 54,000 jobs to a decline of 3,000. Global food prices fall; meat reaches record high The UN Food and Agriculture Organization global food price index declined ...

Part 4 Conclusion The Bloomberg Businessweek article, which contended the premise that Iowa has not cleaned up its water quality on purpose, resulting in a health crisis, laid the general blame on "Corporate Ag" and the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation in particular. The IFBF has been very influential on this states' political process. They are the largest farm organization in the state and are part of a very strong national organization. For clarity, I have been an IFBF member since I was 19 years old and am a client of their Farm Bureau insurance company. When I see what the Sierra Club and Peta have to say about corn and livestock production, I have no confusion about knowing what side that I am going to be on. The IFBF has never given me an award while the Iowa Farmers Union has. I think that we have larger issues to deal with than disagreements between farm organizations. Each and all farm organizations play a role in representing Ag interests. I am on the side of anyone on the side of Agriculture. We have so many enemies today we cannot be too picky about who our friends are. We need all of the friends that we can get. There is more than enough polarization of just about everything in this country and I do not think that we need to pit farm organizations against one another. Ag opponents need us to fight amongst ourselves. The "Activists" solutions to nitrates in our streams or ...

10/02/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump Speaks, Soybean Traders Listen On the Grains Corn, soybeans, and wheat traded on both sides of unchanged in a relatively quiet overnight session. Soybean futures jumped on Wednesday after President Trump posted on Truth Social: “I’ll be meeting with President Xi, of China, in four weeks, and Soybeans will be a major topic of discussion. It’s all going to work out very well. The Soybean Farmers of our Country are being hurt because China is, for 'negotiating' reasons only, not buying.” Senator John Hoeven (R-N.D.) has said he did not think there was a specific timeline for China to resume purchases of U.S. soybeans following a briefing on Tuesday with U.S. Ambassador to China David Perdue. Wednesday’s strong price move reiterated how responsive the market will be if there’s an actual trade deal. But it also means the market will remain captive to any negative or disappointing developments. Gov’t shutdown: Day 2 The U.S. government remains on shutdown as Republicans and Democrats remain at odds over a short-term spending measure. Democrats are demanding that health-care subsidies to counter rising premiums for millions of Americans under the Affordable Care Act be included in any spending bill. Republicans say those negotiations can happen after passing a short-term spending measure to reopen the government. The Trump administration raised the stakes by freezing $26 billion in funding for Democratic states. The targeted programs included $18 billion for transit projects in New York and $8 billion for green-energy projects in 16 Democratic-run states, including ...

Brazil's planting season has leapt out ahead of its historical pace with more than 5% planted overall. This is primarily due to solid rainfall limited to the state of Parana, giving growers the confidence there to move full speed ahead. The outlook appears dryer almost everywhere else. We spoke with one grower in Central Mato Grosso that was already 40% complete compared to the state average of 6%. They shut down the planter yesterday and were now going to wait for more rainfall to materialize. They received a good rain in late September that gave them enough moisture to start, but that will quickly evaporate in the 90+ degree heat. They will now wait for additional rain in the forecast before they start the tractor back up.   Outside of Southern Brazil, we see virtually no precipitation through October 5th. This region represents 70% of the soybean production in Brazil. The outlook for October continues to trend drier for the European model and is even less generous for the GFS. We have mentioned in prior reports how the rainy season likes to do a head fake, sending in a large shower, only to turn dry again for several weeks before recommitting to the seasonal monsoon. Unless Brazilian growers get a surprise shower, they might have to replant as the seed sits baking in the hot sun. We again emphasize that it is still early. If growers don't make much progress in early October, that is not much of an issue. However, if ...