CommStock Reports

05/21/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Wants Lower Grain Prices to Buy On the Grains Grain and soy futures extended Wednesday’s losses overnight, with winter wheat markets leading to the downside, though markets have come well off their session lows. Money is flowing out of long grain/soy positions – in the case of SRW wheat, into short positions. Key technical levels to watch are last Friday’s lows, the knee-jerk reaction lows to the meeting between President Trump and Xi Jinping.Grain traders are clamoring for confirmation – or at least more details – from Beijing about potential U.S. agricultural purchases after the trade deal. But as previously stated, that’s not China’s MO on these matters, instead issuing calculated and reserved messages. From China’s standpoint, the lower prices drop, the better the buying opportunity.The geopolitical pendulum appears to be swinging toward a potential peace deal between the U.S. and Iran. But the broader marketplace is treading lightly, as we’ve been down this path before only to see things fall apart. President Trump said Wednesday that the U.S. was in the “final stages” with Iranian diplomacy, though warning he may resume attacks in the coming days if Iran didn’t agree to his terms. This is a repeated message from Trump – one that hasn’t been carried out, signaling he wants a peace deal. Iran is in the process of responding to the latest correspondence from the U.S., which “has narrowed the gaps to some extent,” the semi-official Iranian Students’ News Agency reported. The exchange ...

Grain markets started strong this week on news that China has agreed to purchase an additional $17 billion in US ag products.  This is positive news but like most deals, the devil is in the details.  Is this $17 billion price picked up at the farm or FOB Shanghai?  Is there any fixed volume amount, or is it all based on dollar value?   Is there a mechanism in place if they do not follow through?  What have we given up in return?  We may never have all the answers. While China did not follow through on their Phase 1 trade agreements, we will give them the benefit of the doubt and assume this time will be different as they have fully consummated their initial purchase of 12 MMT of soybeans.   This trade deal is a matter of perspective.  I have seen some feedback where analysts were ecstatic because they compared this deal to the last 12 months of Chinese purchases.  Looking through that type of filter, China will buy 3X more in 2026 than what they did in 2025.  What a smashing success!  However, this approach takes a short term result out context, ignoring the impact from a decade of trade wars.   If I assign a value of $12 per bushel on 25 MMT of soybeans, that gives me an approximate value of $11 billion.  Adding the $17 billion in additional purchases gets us to $28 billion in total exports to China.  Since 2026 will be prorated, it will be more like ...

05/20/2026 Following A Similar Blueprint Morning Market Talk There will not be a Morning Market Talk today Eric is under the weather this morning. On the Grains Grain markets generally weakened overnight amid growing market impatience that China has yet to formally confirm roughly $17 billion in additional U.S. agricultural purchases tied to recent trade discussions with the Trump administration. China’s commerce ministry said the two sides “in principle agreed to include relevant products in the reciprocal tariff reduction framework, while also setting guiding goals to expand two-way trade in agricultural products.” The statement did not say what products could be included or mention the $17 billion commitment. China’s vagueness shouldn’t be a surprise. As was the case during the agreement reached last October, China didn’t confirm actual soybean purchase levels and was much more vague than the United States. That’s likely to be the case this time as well. But the market reaction reflects a familiar pattern in U.S./China agricultural trade relations: Traders often demand immediate public verification from Beijing, while China historically has preferred to move incrementally and quietly through state buyers and commercial channels rather than through highly publicized announcements. That dynamic was evident following the October 2025 U.S./China “Busan agreement,” when questions initially emerged over whether China would actually follow through on reported commitments for 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans. Beijing never formally confirmed those purchases in a high-profile manner, yet export sales and shipment data later showed the business materialized over time. Grain traders are confronting a market that had already built ...

I farmed for 51 years where I made the decision as to what to plant before my son took over last year. I grew some corn every year or tried to and many years I was 100% corn. Other crops grown were alfalfa, oats and soybeans. As a livestock feeder I grew a lot of corn on corn and as few soybeans as I could, primarily as a rotation crop to control rootworm. I have always gotten better corn yields than soybean yields. Never much liked walking beans although that is not done anymore. We are now planting soybeans in April to better the soybean yield. My best soybeans, highest yield most profitable soybeans followed multi-year corn. Thus, it always felt to me that I had to grow a lot off corn to produce profitable soybeans. USDA says that we will grow 15.995 bln bushels of corn this year worth $4.40 bushel or over $70bln. More when the corn cut for silage is added. USDA looks for farmers to grow 4.435bln bushels of soybeans worth $11.40 per bushel or a little over $50bln. As a general statement corn has been a profitable crop for us while soybeans not so much. Given soaring N prices, soybean rotation does produce a nitrogen credit that will be valuable reducing our corn fertilizer costs. Here is another general statement that I believe to be true. Ethanol has made growing corn profitable while soy-diesel has not historically added the same level of value to soybeans ...

05/19/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Market Fever Lifted for Now On the Grains Wheat markets firmed amid mild follow through buying overnight as USDA noted further deterioration of HRW wheat conditions in the Plains. Corn and soybeans traded narrowly around unchanged overnight. Traders are catching their breath and recalibrating markets after the whip-saw price action late last week and Monday as they digest the outcome of the U.S./China trade talks, while also monitoring weather, crop development, demand prospects and geopolitical events.Crude oil futures weakened overnight after President Trump said he would hold off on a planned U.S. attack on Iran as he continues to seek a peace deal. The U.S. also extended a sanctions waiver allowing countries to purchase Russian oil currently stranded at sea for another 30 days. There continues to be a lot of balls in the air that traders must try to juggle. Speculative money flow will give the “temperature” of traders. For now, the fever has lifted, though it may not have fully broken. Winter Wheat Conditions Second Worst Ever USDA rated 27% of the U.S. winter wheat crop as good/excellent, down one percentage point from the previous week, tying 1996 as the second worst ever for the date since USDA’s national record began in 1986. Only 1989 at 25% good/excellent had a worse rated crop at this stage. USDA’s poor/very poor rating increased three points to 41%. For perspective, the poor/very poor rating is slightly more than 1.5 times the good/excellent rating. Corn Planting Tops Three-Quarters Done; Soybeans ...

What occurred at the Trump/Xi Summit? No one really knows for sure. The Chinese do not say. There are many interpretations…here is mine. It would appear China doesn't want to make specific political deals but instead return to a system of commercial ones made by market conditions through a new entity called a Board of Trade. "The U.S./China body would oversee trade issues in sectors including aviation, energy, medical equipment and agriculture. U.S. Trade Representative Greer said the framework would seek tariff reductions on roughly $30 billion worth of goods." $30 bln spread out over so many categories of goods may not amount to all that much for Ag. A White House Fact sheet says, that in addition to the soybeans, "China has agreed to purchase at least $17 billion of agricultural products from the US annually through 2028." While there has been no confirmation of this agreement from the other side we will go with that number for analysis. In 2020 China had committed to purchasing $200bln in goods over 2 years from us and never came close. They bought next to nothing from us in 2025 and did not deplete reserves. There is currently no strong information that China is in any great need of anything and large new purchases cannot all go into reserves.   China's Ag Import Compliance Following 2020 Deal, $Billions USD   China bought close to the 12mmts of soybeans committed to from old crop in the preceding agreement. That was full compliance. They also committed to ...

05/18/2026 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Details Emerge… Markets Love Details On the Grains Grain and soy complex futures strongly rebounded from sharp losses late last week as some details of what President Trump and Xi Jinping agreed on during last week’s meeting are surfacing – from both the U.S. and China. Not all of what was lost in the immediate aftermath of the trade talks has been regained, but the whipsaw trade shows the knee-jerk reaction was too severe. Markets love details and now some details have emerged.Traders are also monitoring the geopolitical situation in the Middle East. President Trump told Iran the “clock is ticking,” after drones targeted a nuclear power plant in the United Arab Emirates. Tehran “better get moving, FAST, or there won’t be anything left of them,” Trump said on Truth Social on Sunday. Funds liquidated some of their massive length as of May 12 – ahead of the late-week price plunge. Funds trimmed their net long stance held in grain and soy futures in all but soymeal. When including the final three days last week, the fund long was further reduced but they still remained heavily long. Money flow will remain critical to near-term price direction. According to China’s commerce ministry, Washington and Beijing will pursue reciprocal tariff reductions and other measures aimed at boosting trade flows, including for agriculture, via bilateral boards of trade and investment. Beijing said negotiations are continuing over which products would receive tariff relief and how the reductions would be implemented. Beijing said it would “actively ...

Grains were called lower in continuation of the selloff from late last week. Possible strength for crude oil tied to the Middle East could see buyers return in commodities. In the Headlines Grain futures tumbled on Thursday's session after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said soybeans were "all take care of," seemingly indicating that there would be no additional treatment of the subject during President Trump's visit to China. Further disappointment was realized on Friday as there came no new agricultural purchase agreements announced from the meeting with Xi Jinping. Traders now wait for China to resume purchasing U.S. soybeans in fulfillment of the previous promise made to buy 25 million metric tons in each of the next three seasons. Israeli strikes continued against Hezbollah in Lebanon while Iran also reportedly launched a drone attack on an Abu Dhabi nuclear plant. Along with a post from President Trump about it being the "calm before the storm," there were more indications that the U.S. and Israel were preparing for another major military offensive against Iran. Plans were likely to focus on targeting Iranian nuclear assets rather than securing control of the Strait of Hormuz. The annual Wheat Quality Council tour finished last week to find an average yield of 38.9 bushels per acre, down 26 percent from a year ago. Paired with the Tuesday crop report and the subsequent price action, the week closed with questions of whether a top had been put in for wheat futures. The seasonal trend is consistent for showing weaker ...

Price action around the China meeting fit the pattern of "buy the rumor, sell the fact." Bullish enthusiasm over elevated agricultural purchase commitments was dampened by vague promises and lacking details about what comes next. The question now turns to whether grain futures are undergoing a correction or reversal. Consider a scenario where price weakness stemming from China eventually turns into a setup for fading the disappointment. Being positioned defensively in the present does not preclude the possibility of turning friendly later. History shows a favorable track record for hedging new-crop corn and soybeans in the spring, but also that there have been positive returns from buying back previous sales right before or during the fall harvest.   December corn and November soybean futures made August lows in both of the last two years. There may be more talk to come about how 2024 is potential analog year because of similar price levels (and partly for the reversion back to a closer corn and soybean acreage mix). On this day in 2024, December corn was also trading in the $4.80's like it was today. May 15 was the spring high that year before December futures fell toward a $3.85 low on August 26. New-crop soybean futures were similarly trading just above and below $12 in May of 2024 before going on to make a mid-August low of $9.55. Following the August 2024 lows, corn was able to rally by nearly 50 cents and soybeans by just more than $1 before harvest was ...