CommStock Reports

Next week will feature a pair of crop reports on grain stocks and small grains production. Making the reporting occasion more momentous was that these estimates were possibly the last of the foreseeable future if the government were to shut down, as has been the threat leading up to the funding deadline of October 1st. At risk of going dark if the federal government would ever shut down is reporting on everything from crop progress and yields to agricultural exports and livestock inventories.   For grain futures to have rallied following the bearish-seeming yield updates provided in the August and September crop reports is an indication that traders widely anticipate further yield reductions in the crop reports to come. Sustaining the grain price strength that is connected to lower yield expectations was hinging on whether the government shutdown would take away the opportunity for markets to react to the realization of smaller production estimates.   Resumption of the normal crop reporting cycle will not diminish the influence of farmers reporting results from field. Early harvest observations have so far included widespread mention of disappointment due to disease pressure and other impacts from what much of the country experienced in this season's flip of conditions from overly wet and hot to severely dry weather. On the other end, there has also been anecdotal evidence of record yields still coming for many farmers, especially in areas including Western Iowa, South Dakota, and Nebraska.   Crop reports in the fall season are most anticipated for their revisions on corn ...

09/26/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Trump’s Tariffs Expanding; Trump Bucks For Farmers On the Grains November soybeans traded lower and are working on big weekly losses, forming a bear flag/pennant on the daily chart. December corn faced light selling overnight and is near unchanged for the week. Wheat also traded lower overnight but are holding onto slight gains for the week after a rebound from contract lows earlier this week. President Trump announced a new round of tariffs that will begin Oct. 1, including a 100% duty on patented drugs unless the producer is building a manufacturing plant in the United States. Imported heavy-duty trucks will be subject to 25% tariffs, kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities will be hit with a 50% duty and upholstered furniture imports will be taxed at 30%. President Trump pledged on Thursday that U.S. farmers would receive financial support drawn directly from tariff revenues until his trade strategy begins to deliver longer-term benefits. Trump’s remarks framed tariff revenues as a bridge for farmers facing short-term hardship from disrupted trade flows. His administration has used similar trade mitigation programs in past years, funded in part through tariff collections, to cushion the blow to agricultural producers caught in trade disputes. Rollins Touts Other Actions USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins laid out an action plan to assist U.S. farmers. Highlights included: Another $2 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program funds will be delivered this week. A new USDA–DOJ memorandum will step up antitrust scrutiny in seed, fertilizer and equipment markets. Reforms are underway ...

Part 2 My life Experience with Iowa Water Quality:   Bloomberg Businessweek recently published a scathing article criticizing Iowa water quality and related issues of public health that woke some people up. The people that I am referring to are those that defend us that we are in grave danger of irretrievably losing the public narrative to groups and interests that would use false premises in order to regulate us out of business. One result is that Des Moines residents believe a lot of things about Iowa Agriculture that have been distorted and is not true. The Bloomberg article was as if every critic of crop and livestock Agriculture in our state had the opportunity to come together to have their opinions published by a major media concern in this article. Statistically, it is their claim that Iowa has less than desired water quality and a high cancer rate. Are the numbers accurate? I will share my perspective. Why so little/no public response from regulators whose job it is to monitor and safeguard such risks? They have been remiss in not weighing in with facts. State regulators will tell, off the record, that the critics are inaccurate but that doesn't correct the record. This is one of those topics that I have a perspective on as I have lived here for 7 decades and participate in the system as it existed and does today.   Starting with my beginning, our family farm got its water from a shallow well from the 1950s through when in ...

09/25/2025 Well…That Didn’t Take Long! Morning Market Talk Due to technical issues there will not be a Morning Market Talk today. On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight as Argentina reinstated its ag export taxes, though the damage to U.S. soybean exports during our peak season was already done, and the U.S. is on the outside looking in. November soybeans have formed a bear flag on the daily chart. Corn and wheat futures are also firmer this morning. Argentine farmers rushed to make sales and exporters rapidly registered all $7 billion the government allotted when it eliminated ag export taxes early this week. To benefit from the tax relief, 90% of those dollars must be sold in the FX market within 72 hours. China was a big buyer of soybeans, locking in 38 cargoes (nearly 2.5 bil. bu. or 91 million bu.) over the past three days, most of which not surprisingly will be loaded for late fall/early winter delivery, industry sources told me. That covers Chinese buyers on their needs through year-end – and into the start of Brazil’s new-crop harvest. An Argentine source told me, “A lot of the export declarations were for near-term delivery, but some were for new crop.” Another source told me, “I would not be surprised to see some U.S. soybean exports go to Brazil and Argentina, albeit at lower prices.” With the cap reached, Argentina reinstated its export taxes, according to ARCA, the Argentine State agency that implements tax and customs policy. Export taxes are now again applied at 26% for soybeans, 24.5% ...

Thoughts on US corn crop size continue to slide lower, but are still seen as a record, especially when considering planted area reaching nearly 99 million acres. One could become a bit more positive on the short-term outlook if it were not for the fact that we are at the early stages of harvesting a potential 16.8 billion bushels. This is roughly 1.5 billion bushels more than the previous record in 2023. Grain bins are reportedly in hot demand as farmers look for a place to put it all. Last year saw prices recede some 30 cents during the October/November harvest season before they began a long recovery higher. Considering we are in uncharted territory when it comes to record production, it would make sense for the market to want to see additional yield confirmation before any significant rally can occur.   Rainfall seems concentrated in the Eastern Corn Belt this week, bringing 2" – 3" to some of the driest areas of MO, IN and OH. In terms of helping crops, it will be too little, too late. We spoke with growers in Southern Ontario, Canada (North of Ohio) and they said yields on good soil were off 50 bpa, whereas corn on light sandy soils was in some cases a total loss. It would make sense that the first fields being harvested are some of the worst, especially if they did not have any fungicide on them. One grower in NW Iowa said his test strip without fungicide was over ...

09/24/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Continues Argentine Bean Buying Spree On the Grains Soybeans retreated from Tuesday’s modest corrective gains but remain above this week’s lows, which is important near-term support. December corn is modestly weaker this morning but continues to perform relatively well in the face of recent price action in soybeans and wheat. The wheat markets are trying to build on Tuesday’s gains, though the upside remains limited to corrective buying. China continued its buying spree of Argentine soybeans, with estimated volume now at 20 cargoes (1.3 MMT) or higher. My guess is higher. China will use this opportunity to get all of its soybean needs booked through at least year-end. Argentina announced Monday it would eliminate ag export taxes through Oct. 31 or until $7 billion of exports have been registered. The bulk of that is expected to be for soybeans. The surprise has been the level of new-crop soybean sales the announcement triggered, with some estimates out of Argentina signaling it could be nearly a 50/50 split with old-crop and new-crop farmer sales. China Strategically Gives Up Developing Country Benefits China will no longer claim the benefits available to developing nations at the World Trade Organization, removing a longstanding point of contention with the United States. Premier Li Qiang announced at the UN General Assembly the country will stop seeking new “special and differential” rights in any current and future WTO negotiations. “China’s decision reflects a commitment to a more balanced and equitable global trading system. It sends a strong signal ...

Part 1: Preamble to Commentary on Bloomberg Businessweek article Critical of Iowa Water Quality and Health Conditions: Iowa Agriculture and our physical environment are married generationally to each other. The relationship that they have with one another is intertwined in every way. Folks who live in rural Iowa are the children of this relationship with their lives depending upon it. They are the parents of the next generation that will do the same. It is a huge family and not everyone has the same experience but we all make a living off what this relationship produces. We owe our health and wealth to this marriage and more than just the immediate family for which agriculture is a vocation, we depend on its sustainability. This marriage is the primary wealth generation of this state yet also feeds a nation and contributes to human development the world over. The marriage can be traced back some 10,000 years when human species settled down to farm for their subsistence, rather than hunt and gather. That was one of a few very pivotal turning points in developmental human history. Farmers today are the lineage of what makes our society possible, through its productivity, allowing it the time and resources to be able to advance science, technology, the arts…everything that we have become. Without this marriage we would not be who we are or who we will be in the future. US Agriculture has a job to do and we are doing it so well there are ...

09/23/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Argentina’s Ag Tax Cut Has Immediate Impact – For Chinese Buyers On the Grains Soybeans extended Monday’s sharp declines during the overnight session, taking out yesterday’s lows. Corn and winter wheat markets followed to the downside. Spring wheat futures pivoted around unchanged overnight. China Seizes Its Opportunity. Chinese buyers booked 10 to 15 cargoes of soybeans from Argentina on Monday, according to Reuters. Soybean premiums dropped aggressively after Argentine President Javier Milei eliminated export taxes on soybeans and most other ag goods through Oct. 31. Brazilian exporters also cut premiums, trying to match the move in Argentine prices. Two traders with direct knowledge of the Chinese deals for Argentine soybeans said they are scheduled for November delivery. With the elimination of ag export taxes being temporary, Chinese buyers needed to seize their opportunity – and apparently, they’ve done so. Argentina has plenty of soybeans to export with no tax over the next six weeks. And Brazil still has ample supplies from its record crop to ship. This creates an even more advantageous situation for Chinese buyers. There is expected to be a rush of Argentine shipments of soybeans through October, Brazil is still actively shipping soybeans and Beijing can release state-owned reserves to cover any shortfalls that South American exporters may not be able to supply. That leaves the U.S. on the outside looking in and creates more leverage for China in trade negotiations with Washington. Meanwhile, Milei will meet with President Trump in New York today. On Monday, Treasury Secretary ...

Combines will be rolling in earnest here this week harvesting what I believe may be a lallapalooza of a loser of a soybean crop given the price outlook. ISU extension estimates the 2025 cost of production right at $11.00 bushel. The soybean market is nowhere near the cost of production and likely to get worse before it gets better. Our local elevator basis is terrible at 75 cents under for about a $1.50 per bushel loss before today. Some soybean farmers have a much worse basis than that. High yields will, with rare exception, not push that to profitability. It takes a significant rally to reach breakeven. First, the soybean market has to bottom and there is no such thing confirmed on charts yet. The 2024 August 945 low is still technically threatened to be taken out. A big harvest and poor demand are not a great combination. We went with 70% corn on our farm this year but corn profitability will not carry the soybean crop. If the trade outlook doesn't change, US farmers may plant fewer soybeans again next year, potentially ruining the corn market too. We are 80% hedged at an average price of 10.37. Nothing special. We will bin all we can of the crop hoping to piece together collective revenue with some combination of hedge profit, crop revenue insurance indemnity, ARC/PLC payments, Trump ACH, post-harvest basis improvement and carry to pay the bills. Growing soybeans without an export market is no damn fun.   While president Trump promoted ...

09/22/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Soybean Market Clamoring for China On the Grains Soybeans fell to their lowest level since Aug. 12 during the overnight session. Wheat also faced price pressure, while corn pivoted around unchanged. Friday’s call between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping ended without mention of Chinese purchases of U.S. soybeans, which fueled a selloff ahead of the weekend that continued overnight. Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) pressed negotiators to explain what happened to soybeans during the latest U.S./China trade talks in Madrid. Grassley posted on social media: “The only results of the negotiations that I’ve read is TikTok. Now WHAT WAS THE RESULT OF THE NEGOTIATIONS ON SOYBEANS?” The South China Morning Post reported that large-scale purchases of U.S. goods, including soybeans, are under discussion as potential “deliverables” for President Trump’s state visit to Beijing early in 2026, with the Chinese leader in turn visiting the U.S. “at an appropriate time.” Sources cited by the paper suggested that soybeans, along with Boeing aircraft, could be part of the economic package tied to the visit. However, as of now, “significant progress” has not translated into concrete commitments. Agriculture is likely to come up in future rounds of talks among U.S. and Chinese officials. The U.S. side sees it as a major lever, largely via soybeans and other bulk ag products. There is expectation on the U.S. side that China might commit to increasing purchases of U.S. agricultural goods in a broader trade deal. Soybeans are likely to be central. Despite traders’ dismay, ...

The Autumnal Equinox will occur on Monday to finish out the transition into fall. It will feel like fall this weekend with all the harvesting going on, but the weather will still be more like summer with chances of isolated thunderstorms to interrupt otherwise sunny skies and temperatures in the 80's. This next prospect for rain comes to possibly provide parts of the Eastern Corn Belt with their first meaningful doses of moisture since early August. Precipitation rankings since then show several climate districts in the Midwest suffering their driest stretches in 133 years of records.   Most places that are dry now were abundantly saturated with moisture earlier in the season, some to the extreme end of being too wet, which is part of the weather set up that was conducive to diseases like Southern Rust and tar spot. The widespread incidence of crop disease and expectations for the related yield hit have been well debated. There is also active discussion about possible test weight deficiencies for corn and the elevated likelihood of phantom loss, while soybean shatter issues will be monitored as well.  There is a lot of conversation continuing about how the dry weather shift will have impacted production, but the most pressing concern is fire safety. One of the record-dry areas of South-Central Illinois was one of the latest examples of combine fire risk on Thursday.   In growing seasons that finish dry like this one, another risk is that the water turns back on right when you are ready ...

09/19/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video U.S. May Need Brazil Drought to Get China Soybean Deal On the Grains Soybeans firmed overnight ahead of the scheduled phone call between President Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping at 8:00 a.m. CT. Corn also modestly favored the upside. Wheat pivoted around unchanged in narrow trade. Market attention is fully on Trump/Xi call, which will center on finalizing a deal to keep TikTok operational in the U.S. but could lead to a potential in-person meeting between the two leaders in October or early November. The soybean market waits to see if Trump presses Xi on China’s lack of new-crop soybean buys, though there are no indications that topic will be brought up. There still weren’t any Chinese new-crop soybean purchases on the books as of Sept. 11 and it appears Beijing is using soybeans (and other ag commodities) as a pawn in the trade war. With Chinese crushers having secured enough soybeans from Brazil to get them through fall and Beijing prepared to release state-owned reserves if needed, China appears as if it will continue to dig in its heels and keep U.S. soybean purchases off the books – despite U.S. soybeans being priced well below shipments from Argentina and Brazil. The stark price difference and lack of purchases of U.S. soybeans is a clear sign Beijing has told importers to stand down unless/until it can secure a trade deal with satisfactory terms. China came into this trade war much more prepared than it did ...

Don't know how your algorithm is performing but mine is presenting me with story after story about how poor the farm economy has become and how many farmers are going to go broke. The major media finally caught on and thought they just stumbled upon the story. The farm economy is in the tank and according to the general narrative many farmers will drown before getting out. There are nuances. The damage varies regionally. It appears worse in the South. One article says that a third of farmers in Arkansas could fail. They are now lobbying for financial aid. They can grow a larger assortment of crops in the South such as cotton, rice, peanuts, soybeans and corn but none of them are profitable. Typically, something makes money and this time none currently do. Farms are also not as value-added in the South. Less livestock. They have cotton gins but that doesn't help much. They raise chickens but Tyson/Integrators own them and are benefiting from cheap feed. Some places may grow wheat or milo but that is not profitable either. Much demand for cotton, corn and soybeans is export related and exports are generally poor and basis levels are too. The president is under great pressure to get China to buy some US soybeans. After the $billions China has invested in Brazil's Ag infrastructure they are unlikely to buy what we need them to from us.   In the Midwest we grow mostly corn/soybeans and neither is profitable despite high yields this ...

09/18/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Weather, Trade and Exports in Focus On the Grains Corn futures pivoted around unchanged in light overnight trade. Soybeans mildly extended Wednesday’s losses. Winter wheat markets firmed on support from news of Taiwan’s purchase agreements (see below). There’s a split focus in grain/soy markets. Weather is seen as potentially disruptive to harvest over the next week or so, with scattered rain chances. The biggest threat is to already poor stalk quality in some areas. Trade remains in focus as U.S. delegates, including President Trump, wrap up their UK visit, though there are doubts any major breakthroughs beyond the trade agreements reached this summer will be announced. Markets await news on Friday’s call between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping. No developments on China buying U.S. soybeans are anticipated. Weekly corn export sales will be watched to see if there’s a rebound after a slowdown for the week ended Sept. 4. Price action from Sept. 4-11 was sideways in corn futures, so this could signal if the $4.20 area in December corn is viewed as getting too pricey for global end-users. Once again, don’t expect China to show up on the buyers’ list for U.S. soybeans. Taiwan pledges goodwill U.S. agricultural purchases A Taiwanese agricultural trade mission signed three letters of intent with U.S. agricultural industry associations to purchase more than $10 billion of U.S. soybeans, corn, wheat and beef over the next four years. Taiwan’s goodwill trade mission has historically pledged about $1.9 billion in annual purchases. These purchase agreements are ...

Moistures levels may be elevated but combines are already starting to roll in parts of Central Iowa. Traders will be eager for any yield reports to validate the market response to the USDA report last week. It is not often the market moves higher following a bearish update. It was another case where the market viewed the USDA report as being too slow to illustrate the declining crop conditions from late season drought and disease. We received one alarming report from a large grower in West Central Illinois (30,000 acre operation) that was advancing their harvest by two weeks ahead of normal to limit damage from Southern Rust. Despite harvesting corn at nearly 30% moisture and triggering heavy drying costs, they still felt it necessary to offset the damage from disease by getting an early start to harvest, which according to them was "dissolving" crop stalks and kernels at an alarming rate. Everyone has an opinion on the value of fungicide, but it seems to have made more sense this year. The problem is, by the time you know you need it, it is often too late.   The USDA made one correction to corn demand that ultimately "saved" the market in my view. They increased corn exports by 100 million bushels. This helped keep carryover mostly unchanged from last month. Had they not done that, the market very well likely would have had a different ending for the day. While corn exports are strong, we continue to highlight the long-term challenges ...

09/17/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video China Appears Ready to Buy U.S. Soybeans On the Grains Corn and soybean futures modestly pulled back from Tuesday’s gains overnight as traders take a wait-and-see approach to EPA’s RFS proposals and a potential breakthrough on soybean purchases from China. Wheat futures paused their corrective rebound from the recent lows. Trump Eyes China Trip Tied to Soybean, Boeing Purchases Negotiations between Washington and Beijing over a possible state visit by President Donald Trump are in their “final stage,” with large-scale purchases of American goods — particularly soybeans — emerging as key deliverables, according to the South China Morning Post. The trip would be the first by a U.S. president to China since 2017 and could be scheduled around the Oct. 31–Nov. 1 APEC summit in South Korea. While discussions have prominently featured a potential deal for China to purchase 500 Boeing aircraft, U.S. negotiators have also pressed for new Chinese commitments to buy American soybeans. Officials on both sides appear keen to frame Trump’s potential visit as a breakthrough moment that can reset trade ties. If agreed, the soybean and Boeing announcements would headline a package of commercial deals unveiled during Trump’s trip, while setting the stage for a reciprocal visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to the U.S. next year. This could set the stage for a broader trade deal similar to the Phase 1 agreement the countries reached during Trump’s first presidency, though that would be far more comprehensive and take additional time and negotiations. EPA Proposes Reallocation of ...

Part 2 of 2 The following charts pretty much track how wealth has concentrated during my lifetime. I started farming in 1973, son of a middle-class farm family with our starting family living off my wife’s teaching income. Her first-year teaching contract was $7000. That paid most of our bills back then. As a general statement, both low income and middle-income families failed to accumulate wealth during this economic period. The ability to tap into the American Dream was very selective. The bottom 50% have seen a smaller proportional increase in income and their share of the cumulative wealth decline over the past 50 years.   Depending upon which arc of wealth creation that you are on, depicted in the chart above, it will determine the attitude toward the current US economic system. For half of Americans, they have been bumping along the bottom in a system that they do not see providing them the means to basic needs. All they see is the tail of the dog in front of them. Another middle 40% are struggling, wavering between an ability to lift off financially but held down by gravity. For the top 10% it is working but still in a middle-class sort of way. For the top 1%, they are experiencing what is conceptionally been the American Dream. For everyone else it is just a goal. The promise of upward mobility within our financial system has come into question. It does not seem to be what it used to be.   The more angle ...

09/16/2025 Crop Conditions Ease Seasonally as Harvest Progresses On the Grains Corn and soybeans partially rebounded from Monday’s losses overnight. Winter wheat markets traded higher, while spring wheat was mixed overnight. Traders will continue to monitor U.S./China talks in Madrid, Spain, for any breakthrough on trade negotiations after a framework deal was reached on TikTok on Monday. So far, there has been no concrete news on China agreeing to buy U.S. soybeans and other ag products as part of the talks.Please share your harvest results. With harvest underway, we’d like to hear your harvest results. Please include your location (state crop district and/or county) and how your yields compare to year-ago, APH, etc. You can either reply to this email or to briang@commstock.com. We’ll share results as they come in – without providing your name.Disease pressure and stalk quality issues are prevalent in some areas. If you plan to harvest corn at higher moisture to avoid potential yield loss, make sure to lock in your propane needs for drying. Demand will be high, especially in the worst areas. USDA rated the corn crop as 67% good/excellent as of Sunday, down one percentage point from the previous week but still two points above year-ago. Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Colorado led weekly crop declines, falling nine, eight and seven points, respectively. Conditions were unchanged to two points lower in the Corn Belt states. USDA rated the soybean crop as 63% good/excellent, down one point from the previous week and year-ago. Notable declines included three points in Arkansas, four ...

Part 1 of 2 The problem here in the title is that if the road to becoming wealthy was open and everyone was on it, which is the essence of what is the American Dream. Roadblocks and detours to wealth have increasingly accumulated so that the flow of traffic in upward mobility is stalling for too many. The following is a general thesis explaining where the wealth in this country has concentrated after over 250 years…along with how recent trends in Americans' ability in making a living is changing. It is not meant to pass judgment… just illuminate what the existing wealth structure has come to be. I do believe that wealth disparity is reaching a level of risk where the number of Americans struggling to prosper becomes over-weighted to the degree that it is politically destabilizing. The country was built on a strong working class that is still working but struggling to maintain a relative comparative living standard that other generations enjoyed. One could argue that there is no functional middle-class working family today. The working class is not gaining. The median value of assets held by US families is less than it was 25 years ago. Wages have risen but the cost of living has risen more. A work ethic is still imperative to success. Yet, many people are working hard, some families having three or more jobs within a household and at the end of the month barely cover their living costs. All their income is un-disposable as it ...

09/15/2025 U.S., China Relationship Complexities Muddy Talks On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat pulled back from Friday’s gains during overnight trade. After an upside breakout from the short-term consolidation range on Friday, December corn futures are holding above previous resistance so far this morning. November soybeans are in the middle of the range from the August high to the Sept. 4 low. Wheat futures remain anchored near their recent lows. While traders are still scratching their heads over USDA’s increases to corn and soybean harvested acres, market focus will be on U.S./China trade talks and the Fed’s expected midweek interest rate cut. Top trade negotiators from the U.S. and China are meeting for a second day in Madrid, Spain. Chinese officials are lobbying for a visit by President Donald Trump to China, seeing it as a major diplomatic win for President Xi Jinping. While TikTok’s U.S. future is the centerpiece of the Madrid talks, as it faces a Wednesday deadline to separate from parent company ByteDance, China’s agricultural purchases, especially soybeans, are also a focus. Trump has pressed Beijing to commit to a sharp increase in U.S. soybean imports. However, China has yet to act on the request, with officials signaling they will not make large-scale purchases without broader progress in the talks. The reluctance underscores Beijing’s strategy of offering as little as possible while seeking the symbolic prize of a Trump visit. In Washington, there is mounting pressure from Congress for Trump officials to press China on its overproduction. Democrats have asked the Trump ...

Light back-and-fill expected for the grains after a firmer Friday finish. Traders wait for word on how Chinese trade meetings are progressing while preparing for the Fed decision coming Wednesday. In the Headlines U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was set to start trade meetings with top level Vice Premier from China. The talks will span Sunday to Wednesday in Spain. These plans were just announced by the Treasury Department last Thursday, coming as a surprise after Bessent had previously suggested that he was not likely to meet in person with Chinese negotiators until late October or early November. There will be additional tension after the U.S. government sanctioned more Chinese companies last week, before China opened new anti-dumping cases against U.S. semiconductor manufacturers this weekend. Focus is on the central bank meeting this week. The Fed will announce an expected interest rate cut on Wednesday at 1 pm central with a press conference following 30 minutes later. Traders look convinced that this first rate cut since late 2024 will be just one-quarter of a point, but the market has lately displayed small odds for a half-point reduction. House Republicans have started work on a stopgap bill to fund the government before the next shutdown deadline arrives on the last day of the month. Another continuing resolution would likely only extend funding out to right before Thanksgiving. There were also ongoing efforts between the House and Senate to complete bigger spending packages that would avert the need for stopgap measures, but the timing is thought ...

09/12/2025 Bearish Crop Report, Bullish Reaction PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Coming into the report, it was easy to wonder if analysts were unrealistic with an average estimate for corn yield that was nearly 3 bushels per acre down from August. The yield cut would be historically large, but so was the August estimate compared to recent records and the trend. What we ended up with was a healthy 2.1 bpa cut to 186.7 bpa, but again with the bigger surprise coming from acreage. Harvested corn acres were pulled higher by 1.36 million to more than offset the yield loss so that total production was raised to a new record of 16.81 billion bushels. Raised usage from ethanol and exports helped lead to a 7 million bushel reduction for corn ending stocks, to 2.11 billion bushels. Notable corn yield cuts came from Illinois being down 2 to 219, Iowa dropping 3 to 219, and Minnesota down 3 to 199 bpa. No states had their corn acres lowered from August and the biggest increases came from Minnesota's harvested acres rising by 190,000, Illinois' by 200,000, and Nebraska's by 240,000. The corn acreage change looked to have been produced more by the large addition in FSA-reported acres than the USDA needing to correct any previous discrepancy with the August numbers. With the FSA filings not complete yet in August or September, it is expected that adjustments can still occur for the USDA NASS calculations; however, this year's increase in the FSA corn acres was historically ...

09/12/2025 What to Expect From USDA On the Grains Corn, soybeans and wheat held in tight trading ranges overnight ahead of USDA’s reports later this morning.USDA’s Crop Production and Supply & Demand (WASDE) reports will be released at 11:00 a.m. CT. USDA is widely expected to lower its corn and soybean yields from August, though history says a large reduction isn’t likely. For corn, USDA has lowered yield in September six times during the past 10 years and raised yield the other four times. For soybeans, USDA has cut the yield four times, raised yield five times and left it unchanged once over the past 10 years.As I addressed in my video Tuesday afternoon, the five-year average change in yield from August to September for corn was a 1.1-bu.-per-acre cut, while the 10-year average was a 0.5-bu. reduction. USDA’s largest corn yield reduction in September during that period was 3.3 bu. in 2020 (derecho year), though it also cut yield 2.9 bu. in 2022 and three years saw a 1.3-bu. decline. The biggest increase was 2.9 bu. in 2018, which is a year that had the same good/excellent rating as this year’s crop to start September. For soybeans, the five-year average is a 0.6-bu.-per-acre cut to yield in September, with the 10-year average being no change. The largest reduction was 1.4 bu. in both 2020 and 2022. The biggest increase in the September yield was 1.7 bu. in 2016. Given this historical data and my expectations, yields will be lowered this month, I would put ...