07/01/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Acreage & Stocks Report Did Us No Favors

I stated in previous reports that I felt a reduction in corn acres was necessary to offset a potential in yield hikes if we were going to keep ending stocks below 2 billion bushels. That did not happen. Corn acres were left unchanged. While an above trendline yield is far from certain, the crop is well established. Rain is forecast to start the week, hitting regions that need it, and avoided regions that are saturated. The market took note. Heat is needed to develop the crop but not extreme heat. Above 86 degrees warm weather becomes counter-productive. Even with a high export number the USDA, a 185 bpa national corn yield still adds to our ending stock situation.   I could make the case that a higher yield for soybeans is more justified than corn. Planting dates make a difference, and this was the earliest soybean crop we have ever planted. While we are increasing bean acres, they are generally following corn acres which should experience a yield bump in rotation. Brazil’s national yield for last season hit 55 bpa…and that was on 119 million acres. Surely, we can do better. Using a 53.5 bpa national yield while increasing our…