06/12/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Three Main Issues Outstanding for Grain Futures

It was a bit of deja vu on Friday with the headline, “Trump says he is really close to a deal with Iran.” Another weekend approached with heightened prospects of an agreement reopening the Strait of Hormuz, but it was not unlike leading into the previous several weekends that ultimately failed to produce anything final. The news that President Trump was calling off strikes threatened for Thursday night helped turn around the stock market and metals while crude oil went lower, which were trends being carried into the weekend. The outcomes with Iran were going to remain the most pressing market factor in front of what could still take the lead for grain futures later, including the return of Chinese demand or a more threatening shift in weather.   Dominating market direction since late February, the reactions to war news have been led by crude oil, with prices having lately eased lower while still keeping a material premium compared to before the fighting started. Keep in mind the range for WTI crude oil futures during the conflict, from just under $68 per barrel before to just short of $120 in March. Whether oil futures retreat further or climb back higher…