05/22/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Anything Can Happen Over a Long Weekend

President Trump has said “the clock is ticking” for Iran to make a deal or else “they are going to get hit much harder.” Resuming the military offensive against Iran is not off the table for this long holiday weekend ahead, especially after a House vote on war powers was postponed to leave standing President Trump’s assertion that the 60-day timer was paused by the ceasefire. While the lower oil market was pricing in elevated odds of a peace deal that could be celebrated over the weekend, also increasing was the potential for traders to be surprised by things blowing up again. As one of many paths forward, consider a scenario where U.S. strikes on Iran continue only briefly as part of what will end the war rather than extend it. Attempting another show-of-strength operation targeting Iran’s remaining nuclear capacity could provide political cover for saying again that the nuclear part is taken care of, so hostilities can cease while focus turns to an agreement for keeping the Strait of Hormuz open. The contrasting alternative is for a deal to be struck soon, but that currently presumes one of the sides will cross its red line, either Iran agreeing to…