05/15/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Sell the Rallies or Buy the Dips?

Price action around the China meeting fit the pattern of “buy the rumor, sell the fact.” Bullish enthusiasm over elevated agricultural purchase commitments was dampened by vague promises and lacking details about what comes next. The question now turns to whether grain futures are undergoing a correction or reversal. Consider a scenario where price weakness stemming from China eventually turns into a setup for fading the disappointment. Being positioned defensively in the present does not preclude the possibility of turning friendly later. History shows a favorable track record for hedging new-crop corn and soybeans in the spring, but also that there have been positive returns from buying back previous sales right before or during the fall harvest.   December corn and November soybean futures made August lows in both of the last two years. There may be more talk to come about how 2024 is potential analog year because of similar price levels (and partly for the reversion back to a closer corn and soybean acreage mix). On this day in 2024, December corn was also trading in the $4.80’s like it was today. May 15 was the spring high that year before December futures fell toward a $3.85 low…