03/11/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Would You Drive Through a Minefield If You Had Insurance?

Best practices for marketing grain would typically include identifying the size of the crop, combined with analysis of demand driven fundamentals such as exports, ethanol or crush.  Now we must become exports on Iranian drone capabilities, as that has had an outsized impact on markets, sending commodities up sharply due to the war.  The market does not seem to care that Brazil is in the middle of harvest.  Rather, it is asking how many drones Iran has left.   Due to fear from drone attacks, most oil shipping companies seem unwilling to commit their fleets to the 21-mile stretch of sea called the Strait of Hormuz despite US willingness to offer insurance.  I don’t blame them.  I would be a bit skittish about driving my truck through a minefield, despite assurances from Jake at State Farm that I was fully covered.   Iran is not expected to fold anytime soon.  With that in mind, drone attacks can and likely will occur at random for the foreseeable future, at least until they run out of drones, estimated to be about six months’ worth of supply.  This has caused unforeseen volatility that is impossible to predict.  Crude is clearly pulling the grains…