03/04/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Something’s Gotta Give Pretty Much Says It All

The S&P is in a long-term bull market until it isn’t. Analysts who have predicted an extrapolation of the trend have been right. Sooner or later a 1980-like event is reached when an existential fundamental change occurs. Demographics that have driven the stock market bull are likely beginning to change as baby-boomers make withdrawals instead of new investments. Upside momentum slowed which typically occurs before a top. Some argue that this is just a rotation from the Big-7 stocks which had dominated gains last year into the balance of the S%P stocks. Investors have become indoctrinated that breaks are always buying opportunities and recoveries follow. They have pretty much become locked-in bulls. There is hubris among investors who think that the market always rises. Sideways grind can also serve as a correction. Resistance and support levels have formed. What will precipitate a breakout? Wars tend to bring economic activity where debt is accumulated as stimulus. Inflation is also impacted. That would drive new economic activity but worsen an already heady debt accumulation. The US has no oil shortage and may temporarily supply the world with oil due to a disruption in the Gulf war with Iran. The situation over the…