02/20/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Spring Seasonal Transitions Underway

Today was expiration day for March grain options. Elevated open interest remaining in the 430 March corn options was helping to pull futures up toward that strike price. Holders of the nearby calls and puts had ‘pin risk’ for not knowing whether the options could end up exercised or assigned. Option expiration will take a large chunk of the futures open interest out of the market before next week, which will end with first notice day for delivery against March futures. It has been pointed out that this period is historically bearish for grain futures because of active selling in the cash market that is tied to March deadlines. It was this week a year ago that corn futures put in their high for 2025 at just over $5, although the break may have had less to do with the March contracts expiring and more to do with a broader market selloff that included the S&P 500 eventually dropping 20+ percent over the next six weeks.   Last February’s market top was all about tariffs. One year later, today’s trade was also (mostly) about tariffs. The Supreme Court announced its ruling against President Trump’s reciprocal tariff authority. The market reaction…