02/13/26 Afternoon CommStock Report- Technical, Seasonal, and Mechanical Influences Converge

Even greater doses of headline risk have been injected into markets since the start of the new calendar year. From news about military interventions in Venezuela and resurfacing nuclear tensions with Iran, to trade deals progressing with China and other nations, the many geopolitical developments of the last month have been at the forefront. Domestic policy updates have included President Trump’s central bank chair pick, another government shutdown and the continuing budget standoff, and biofuel policy rulings as well as the climate policy deregulation announced this week. These items and more have traders trying to anticipate what is next on the political front, but the focus on government influence may be overshadowing what is, for the grains and livestock markets, a growing convergence of key technical, seasonal, and mechanical considerations.   Starting with the corn chart, what is most remarkable is that futures have spent the last month trading inside the range of the January report day selloff. Only in two sessions last week did March corn poke into the top half of the 28-cent range from January 12, leaving still plenty of space to cover to reach the report day high of $4.48 3/4. With previous high from December…