02/06/26 Afternoon CommStock Report – Corn Exports Phenomenal, Soybeans Doubted

There should be more appreciation of the phenomenal run on corn exports this season, but the lingering question is whether the surprising growth of export demand is a product of corn prices having been undervalued. By saying corn export demand is ‘surprising,’ that is partly referring to comparison with USDA estimates that have once again been lagging reality, although the earlier projections may have originally been a driving factor for lower corn prices in the first place. Record corn exports again coincide with a period of doubt about Chinese demand for U.S. crops. The last time corn exports were close to this strong was 2020/2021, which not only marked the last major crop price lows, but also the last time there were debates about a new U.S.-China trade deal.   This week was notable for having the export inspections report show corn shipments down to a marketing year low, and they were still very strong, but actually lower than soybean inspections. We have long talked about how this year was going to be a switch for the U.S. corn and soybean export programs because we did not have the Chinese soybean demand already pre-booked for fall, but we were more…