12/09/2025 What I am Thinking About at 2 a.m.

12/09/2025 What I am Thinking About at 2 a.m. PLEASE REFER TO THE BROKER COMMENTARY PAGE FOR UPDATES!! Click Above to Watch Brian’s Afternoon Market Update Part 1 of 2 After a period of prolonged growth and stability, complacency sets into economic expectations that there will not be another economic recession. That seems irrational to me but fits current psychology. OMB doesn’t forecast a recession in their 10-year budget for the economy despite the odds growing daily that one is becoming imminent. Many states, including Iowa, are considered by economists to be in recession. That opinion is held by 32% of Iowa bankers in the October Creighton Rural Mainstreet survey. The Rural Mainstream Index (RMI) was 34.6, with 50 being neutral, which means the 10- state region is in recession. Deere sees its sales off 15-20% with per unit tractor sales forecast to be at their lowest level in 17 years in 2026. Conditions are now ripe for a US and even global recession, but timing is still pending. The stock market is the last light burning brightly. Treasury Secretary Bessent thinks AI and productivity gains will keep it going. In my view this likelihood of an eventual recession should be managed…