12/05/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Chinese Export Demand Disappoints for Now

Soybean futures have trended weaker since the start of December following a rally of more than $1 over the previous two months. Bullish sentiment was tested by a string of days that produced no new reports of soybean exports sold to China. Finally, a flash sale popped up on Friday for soybeans to China, but selling pressure seemed to suggest the business was too little, too late. The soybean board fell right back into a test of the bearish head-and-shoulders pattern that coincides with important psychological support at $11-even. The reaction fit with a market that has bought the rumor and now sold the fact of disappointment with China, although verification of the technical breakdown waits for Sunday and Monday to see if bears seize the opportunity.   Farmers were observed to be more aggressive sellers of soybeans in November, many likely with the motivation of rewarding the rally while knowing that crop sales were a hedge against Chinese demand being a letdown. Some may now flip from being skeptical about Chinese trade follow-through to being bullish about that business picking up from here. If Chinese demand materializes in a bigger way, farmers should start to see firmer local basis…