12/02/25 Still Hope For 12 MMT Finish Line

12/02/2025 Click Above to Watch the Morning Market Talk Video Still Hope For 12 MMT Finish Line On the Grains Soybeans rebounded from a gap-lower start to the overnight session and have recouped more than half of what they lost on Monday. Corn very modestly followed to the upside, while winter wheat markets extended Monday’s losses. As traders wait on Chinese soybean purchases to aggressively ramp up with its 12 MMT purchase commitment for 2025 via the late-October trade agreement on the distant horizon, traders told Bloomberg the lofty goal could still be reached. To date, USDA has confirmed only 2.251 MMT of soybean purchases by China, though some industry estimates of purchases are as high as 4.5 MMT. While U.S. soybeans are now at a modest discount to Brazilian shipments, they are still more pricey when considering the extra 10% tariff American cargoes face. As a result, purchasing U.S. soybeans remains economically unviable for commercial firms, leaving state-owned entities as the sole buyers. Purchases booked before year-end could be shipped in early 2026, even in the 2026-27 marketing year and still count toward the pledge. Using that mechanism, total booked volume could still reach 12 MMT by year-end. Note: The 12…