10/15/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Brazil Planting Pace Good News For China

We just started planting this week on the farm in Brazil, as we have been patiently waiting for the rainy season to begin. The bulk of our crop will get planted in November. We see scattered showers this week for large portions of soybean production areas that will be hit or miss. The rainfall dissipates the further Northeast you go. Next week we see an unusual pocket of dryness in the Center of Brazil’s Grain belt. As long as its duration is brief, most growers will plant right through it. The 30-day forecast that takes us into mid-November looks fairly solid, and so we are inclined to believe that any dry weather will be temporary. We have noticed subsoil moisture has not yet been replenished in Southern Mato Grosso, and parts of Mato Grosso do Sul and Northern Goiás. We correctly estimated that planting progress would slow down last week as farmers waited for the forecast to improve. Growers there may proceed with caution, however, it would appear that chances of rainfall improve as we get closer to November. It is also worth mentioning that the GFS is much less friendly for precipitation.   The IRI model indicates a 60%…