09/26/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – No Crop Reports if Government Shuts Down

Next week will feature a pair of crop reports on grain stocks and small grains production. Making the reporting occasion more momentous was that these estimates were possibly the last of the foreseeable future if the government were to shut down, as has been the threat leading up to the funding deadline of October 1st. At risk of going dark if the federal government would ever shut down is reporting on everything from crop progress and yields to agricultural exports and livestock inventories.   For grain futures to have rallied following the bearish-seeming yield updates provided in the August and September crop reports is an indication that traders widely anticipate further yield reductions in the crop reports to come. Sustaining the grain price strength that is connected to lower yield expectations was hinging on whether the government shutdown would take away the opportunity for markets to react to the realization of smaller production estimates.   Resumption of the normal crop reporting cycle will not diminish the influence of farmers reporting results from field. Early harvest observations have so far included widespread mention of disappointment due to disease pressure and other impacts from what much of the country experienced in this…