06/27/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Prices Depending on Crop Reporting Possibilities

Market participants have questioned if there is any weather risk premium at all left in the grain market. It is easy to wonder whether the focus on growing conditions is taking a backseat to other rapidly changing developments for items such as trade and biofuels policies, monetary policy, and wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. There are seemingly a lot more items than usual to consider in addition to the normal assessment of how crops are doing in relation to the coming 4th of July holiday. An increasing slate of production estimates could help shift more of the attention back to weather. With the stocks and acreage updates now approaching on Monday, we are entering the most critical period of the reporting cycle for U.S. crop markets.   The question for the rest of the season is whether the USDA will follow last year’s path in starting too optimistic on production and too pessimistic on usage, or if the government analysts flip to being more conservative on yield and/or quicker to respect the sustained strength of demand. A review of the reporting pattern from last year helps to explain why prices were unable to produce much upside during the…