06/09/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – “Well Elon…That Should Do It!”

I think that any betting man would have given odds that “The Big Beautiful Budget Bill” would have somehow worked its way through the Senate’s gauntlet and reconciliation with the House to become law later this summer…but now, given the association of Elon Musk with opposition to the bill, that outcome is even more assured. Musk’s opposition, leading to his fallout with the president, will actually cause some to not oppose the bill so aggressively who otherwise may have done so. The opposition has now become a personal offense to president Trump that he can link to Elon and there are now many republicans that will cower.   What is wrong with the bill? It is very regressive but that is not my focus. Primarily it is that it will increase the debt $5 trillion over the next decade instead of the $2.4 trillion touted because the tax cuts in this bill sunset in 4 years when we all know that, just like with the 2017 tax cuts, they will be extended. Then there are the unexpected events that are actually expected but that are difficult to incorporate into the forecast that will impact the debt. Interest rates may be…