05/22/2025 Timing is Everything

On the Grains
Good morning, subscribers. The corn market started to climb higher as we took out the 100-DMA and closed above it yesterday at $4.54. Technical buyers were noted, but some fundamental news about the ethanol usage category was also supportive. Weekly EIA numbers, released yesterday morning, came in at 305 million gallons per week, above last week’s 292. That grind number was 1.7% above last year’s same-week production, and in the previous four weeks, production averaged 3.0% above last year, well ahead of the .7% needed to hit the 5.5-billion-bushel projection by the USDA. Ethanol exports did slip just a touch to 94,000 barrels, down from last week’s 114,000. There is nothing to be concerned about, as we will make the 5.5 BBU grind number. If that export number were to jump up, it almost certainly would mean an adjustment by the USDA in upcoming reports.