04/14/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – What I Warned Of

For some time, I have explained to subscribers, warning in my uncompleted series, “Out of Time”, that at some point the debt bubble would get so big that supply would exceed demand. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said, “Our debt is manageable but the trajectory of US debt is not.”   That was pre-trade war. On the current trajectory, they will need to sell more bonds than the market can absorb. The result would be higher interest rates, when a weakening economy would otherwise lower them.  There were signs in the bond and currency markets that this worrisome inflection point may be getting reached. There was worry about a recession and global growth slowing and instead of interest rates falling and bonds serving as a safe haven in the turmoil occurring, 10-year Treasury rates rose over half a point last week.  Debt supply continues to grow. One source of influence was the tariffs, which are the biggest tax increase in history. Another source is the prospect of declining revenue from a recession. Trump says that other countries pay the tariffs. He should tell that to the business woman who canceled her order in China because she could not come up…