04/10/2025 Give ‘Em a Break, 90-Day Pause

On the Grains
Welcome to the main event, today’s USDA report, set to be released at 11 am. Dissection class is over, and it’s time to learn our grades. Following yesterday’s whopper of a news story, President Trump issued a 90-day pause on tariffs for countries that have reached out to negotiate a deal that set all markets skyrocketing. The right wing will toute this as a victory, issuing statements on how the tariffs worked and got people to the table, the left will say that President Trump blinked after the massive selloff in the equity markets and wanted to put a stop to the uninhibited selling of equities before people had a meltdown- personally, it doesn’t matter to me however you look at it, I look at it for the simple aspect that I am long live cattle, long corn, and long soybeans and a move higher was beneficial to my bottom line. China was not one of those countries, offering Australia an olive branch to “join hands” and fight against the United States, an offer they wisely passed on. President Trump said, “China wants to make a deal. They just don’t know how yet.” While that might be a bit of a stretch, Goldman Sachs revised the Chinese economy to 4% growth from 4.5% due to the tariffs. While 4% growth still seems high when everything you make has a 125% tariff. I get it, the purchaser of those goods will pay the tariff, but I can tell you what: I am not going to be a purchaser of anything Chinese that I can help, not as a political statement, as my wife says, because I am cheap and don’t want to spend the money. I haven’t seen the complete list of countries that got the 90-day pause.