03/11/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Quiet Crop Report Keeps Attention on Tariffs and Economy

Today’s crop report was not supposed to be huge market mover, but grain futures were already enough on edge that we knew it would not take much to trip more volatility. Price reactions ultimately proved to be generally muted as USDA made very few adjustments this month. One of the biggest questions heading into the report was how the government would approach tariffs, and it was on the first page that USDA noted:   U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico have been suspended until April 2 for all products covered under USMCA, which include most agricultural products in the WASDE. Reciprocal tariffs are also scheduled to begin on April 2. However, until these are in effect, WASDE does not incorporate them into commodity forecasts. Despite U.S. tariffs being suspended, Canada’s retaliatory tariffs remain in place. These are accounted for in WASDE estimates and are assumed to continue. U.S. tariffs on China and China’s retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are assumed to remain in place.   Tariffs were the likely excuse for USDA to not raise the corn usage estimates. The government is again left looking too pessimistic as cumulative corn export sales are up about 26 percent from a year…