01/08/25 Afternoon CommStock Report – Brazil Crop Gain Still Seen Offsetting Argentinian Losses

La Nina forces continue to bring drier than normal weather to Southern Brazil and Argentina. We have little doubt there is crop stress occurring in these areas, however, we must weigh that against the fact that an estimated 88% of Brazil’s crop regions are flourishing. I would agree with the narrative that Brazil’s good areas are out producing the losses in Argentina. As we have mentioned in previous reports, RGDS represents 20 MMT or less than 12% of Brazil’s crop. If RGDS loses 10%, that amounts to 2 MMT. USDA has pegged Brazil’s crop at 169 MMT and many private forecasts are already looking for a 3 MMT to 6 MMT boost. Therefore, it is not unreasonable to expect that the gains could offset the losses.   Potential losses in Argentina likely pose an even greater threat to the Bears. First off, triple digit heat is encompassing most of Argentina whereas in Brazil temperatures have remained surprisingly cool up until now. Second, Argentina has a very long planting window and the last 8% or so has not even been planted and with this dry period it will either get planted late or not at all. In our experience, a two-week…