12/03/2024 Mexican Screwworm, Funds Buying Livestock, Selling grains

On the Grains
Good morning and welcome to our regularly scheduled programming of, “The Grain Markets Chopping Around.” March corn is still trying to pick a direction lacking conviction to move on either side of the 50-day moving average (DMA) and the 38.2% retracement. Last night the Commitment of Traders (COT) had the funds as net sellers of 17,186 contracts putting the total long at 97,442. Some strength in the crude oil and wheat markets is providing support today, we will see if that lasts all day. While we are in a range that is seemingly impossible to break out of, we will at some point, in which direction? time will tell.   While I am behind on my 2025 marketing, as I am reluctant to do much with prices at or below breakeven, I did do a small sale yesterday and sold a call on top of it, the idea is that I can wrangle something close to $4.25 next fall isn’t attractive, but it is something to start with. While corn seems less likely to crash, with all the input dollars on the table it felt like I needed to be responsible and do something. A while ago I wrote about how one bad decision can be compounding and lead to more, that was last year as I didn’t sell enough on the spring rally. Also, for new subscribers, I do not have storage at home and need to move it off the combine to the market. My next move will likely be an option spread and look to take that off once crop insurance is established. The currency exchange rate in Brazil, yesterday was at 6:1 that will increase acres. The CBOT corn/soybean ratio is at 2.3, now throw in a historically good fall to get field work done leads me to be cautious about 2025 planting intention numbers.