11/04/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – IOWA Poll of Polls

There has been a decline in public confidence in political polls likely in part from expecting more from them than what they can deliver. The saying “garbage in-garbage out” could readily apply to polling methodology. National polls tend to be hard to conduct as they have to account for many different local nuances that feed into the margin of error. The Iowa poll conducted by Selzer and Co. is considered to be an exception. It is headed by Ann Selzer who started in polling working for the Des Moines Register before building her present private polling company in 1996. Here is what Wikipedia says of her Iowa poll: “Anns polls of Iowa voters have a reputation for being highly accurate, based on their performance in major elections from 2008 through 2020. She has been described as “the best pollster in politics” by Clare Malone of FiveThirtyEight, which also gives Selzer & Company a rare A+ grade for accuracy.” The Selzer poll has earned the moniker of being “The Gold Standard of Polling.”   The news that the latest new Iowa poll reported Saturday p.m. that Harris had leapfrogged into the lead over Donald Trump 47% to 44% in Iowa, shocked the political…