09/04/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Brazil Planting Season To Begin On Schedule

Headlines from Bloomberg are a little bit misleading, making vague announcements that Brazil is having its worst drought in 40 years. Brazil is still in the middle of its dry season. Other than some first crop corn, the row crop season has not yet begun. The dry weather can affect perennials crops like coffee and sugarcane, but a certain level of drought is expected each year. All of our coffee is irrigated, and my brother-in-law says he wouldn’t grow coffee without it. It is way too expensive.   The weather forecast for September shows little if any precipitation in major growing regions. Mato Grosso has historically not been allowed to plant soybeans until September 16th. But this year they have reportedly pushed the date forward a week, allowing producers to begin planting by this Saturday, September 7th. Considering the dry forecast, I don’t think it will make much difference. There will always be some courageous grower that will begin planting in the dry dust, waiting for it to rain. But the bulk of the planting window takes place in October. The long-term outlook does show precipitation arriving by then. This would give us an early indication that planting in the…