08/30/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Stronger Grain Market Riding on Logistics Running Smoothly

September corn futures entered the delivery period on Friday with a spread against the December contract that was around 24 cents, which measured well above 100 percent of any basic “fully carry” calculation. Historically wide futures spreads have specifically signaled a current lack of demand for physical delivery on the Illinois and Mississippi River, which is part of the relative weakness for basis in the Eastern Corn Belt. Compounding the basis and spread pressure, lower water levels on the Mississippi River also look threatening again for Gulf export demand after that same logistical headache was faced during the last couple of fall seasons. Basis in the West has been expected to maintain relative strength due to better competition that fuel processors there have with the feed and export sectors.   Further logistical troubles on the river system do not have to materialize for worries to remain about Gulf export demand. While low water levels on the Mississippi River and around the Panama Canal have been problematic, more grain export share has also shifted from the Gulf to the Pacific Northwest because of lost business with China being offset by gains for countries such as Japan, South Korea, and Columbia.  …