08/07/24 Decent Chance Grains Have Already Dialed-In a “Bearish” WASDE on Monday?

  MODIFIED SOYBEAN RECCO DAY 1: On prior advice you have 10% of ’24 beans hedged at 1207 and we’ve had a pending target of 1095 to hedge an additional 10%. Based on chart action, there’s stubborn resistance just above 1080 so we’re lowering our target for another 10% hedge to 1080.   On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade. As of 6am corn and beans were lower but wheat prices were up slightly. We don’t have the array of trade estimates for Monday’s WASDE yet but should have those tomorrow. The consensus is that USDA will boost the average yield estimates and new crop ending stocks as well, with the only point of debate “by how much?”   However, there’s a pretty good chance the actual increase will come in lower than expected for two reasons: First, there’s a reasonable case from recent export sales and ethanol usage to see a downturn in old crop ending stocks and we learned two weeks ago that USDA is likely to use FSA data to reduce harvested acres from last month due to prevent-plant claims. The combination could mean a net result a little less bearish than what this market…