08/07/24 Afternoon CommStock Report – Elon Musk Could Run for President of Brazil And Win

The FAS updated their estimates for Brazil’s 24/25 crop season, seeing a larger crop than this year but not as large as last year, attributed mostly to higher yields due to a return to La Nińa next season.  La Nińa typically brings more rain to the Center West region where most of the production is concentrated.  They look for planted area to increase overall by 2.3% to 54.3 million acres.  Neutral weather conditions are still expected through October of 2024, but there is currently a 50% probability that a transition to La Nińa will take place between October and November which is when the bulk of Mato Grosso’s soybean crop is planted.  They placed the 24/25 Brazil corn crop at 127 MMT, compared to this season’s USDA estimate of 122 MMT and 115 MMT for CONAB.  This would put their corn exports at 47 MMT compared to 53 MMT in the 22/23 season.   We will get another USDA update on Monday with one quickly followed by CONAB the day after.  Recent CONAB estimates would still place Brazil’s overall corn crop as the second largest in history.  We don’t expect CONAB to increase their August estimates much if any as…