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On the Grains As of 6am we’re finally seeing some firmness in grains with beans leading the bounce. We’ve got two big reports due tomorrow (Grain Stocks and Acreage Planted) and the waterfall decline we’ve witnessed on the charts makes it appear as though “bearish” numbers in those reports are already dialed in to many traders and I would agree with that. We’ve shown multiple photographs of flooded fields and stunted stands but sometimes a graphic is one of those “pictures worth a thousand words” and a graph of Missouri River level at Sioux City is a good one. It shows the water level there has risen 20 feet to far above flood stage since late May. I’ve seen private estimates that flooding in the upper Midwest may cost anywhere from half a million to a million acres. Those acres will be counted as “planted” in Friday’s Acreage Report but result in lower than normal harvested acreage percentages in upcoming WASDE estimates. That further complicates things because reducing harvested acreage will artificially nudge average yield calculations higher, meaning the actual corn production figure will be the key metric to watch for change. As for Friday’s Grain Stocks expectations, they seem…

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