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On the Grains Grains are mixed in overnight trade. As of 6am corn and wheat are soft with beans steady to firm. Given the considerably better-than-expected initial crop condition ratings for corn released Monday afternoon. The market weakness suffered since has been modest, suggesting the plentiful moisture and benign June weather forecast may be mostly “dialed in” after breaking so hard last week before the report even came out. Drought still plagues Mexico, our biggest corn customer and production prospects are uncertain for Russia, Ukraine and China as well. The technical picture for corn, on the other hand, looks pretty grim, particularly on the weekly chart. Recent action has broken the uptrend line demarking the “spring rally” from late-February lows after testing, but failing to breach the upper Bollinger band. The weekly chart shows that after barely entering the “overbought” zone on the Stochastics oscillator, that indicator has decidedly turned lower and reopened downside risk to 420 and even 400 if that can’t hold. Trade focusing is on possible changes from March intentions that we might see in the acreage mix between corn and beans when the June Acreage report comes out late this month with most expecting some switch…

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