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Brazil’s second crop corn harvest slowly advances while weather forecast finally shows a much-needed drying pattern in RGDS. Harvest in Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás and Parana only register at around 2% overall. Progress will begin to pick up quickly in the month of June. Three different private groups came out with their Brazil corn crop estimates last week ranging between 114.3 MMT on the low end, followed by 117.1 MMT and 121 MMT on the high end. All three came in above CONAB (111.1 MMT) but below USDA (122 MT). CONAB may be forced to increase their estimate due to favorable weather in Mato Grosso, but we still see the USDA estimate as too high. The USDA has yet to take into consideration the flood damage in RGDS as well as the earlier end to the rainy season.   As much as 41% of the safrinha corn was planted in a period we deem as high risk. We define high risk as being anything planted after February 20th. That is not to say that the corn cannot still perform well if planted past that date, but the rainy season becomes increasingly unreliable beyond that point, and farmers…

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