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Farmers ended 2023 “fighting” the corn market, stubbornly unwilling to sell as prices relentlessly softened early this year. Then came a capitulation as the John Deere low formed in late February. That is when farmer cash flow needs trumped farmers obstinance to sell and many became caught with expiring basis contracts. During this time the trade touted the bearishness of the deteriorating balance sheet looking for enough acres to get planted with a trendline yield to protract the bearish market trend into 2025 or longer. Low prices are the cure for low prices and the market began the process of healing itself. Low prices discourage acres and encourage demand interests. The March planting intentions report set expectations for corn acres at 90 mln which along with a trendline yield, 181 bpa, would be neutral, neither adding or subtracting much from the projected carryover when unadjusted for demand. That appeared to be enough to sustain the current negative trade sentiment that has pervaded the market so far this year. The trade has now been trained to think that $5 bushel is a great price for corn by showing them it could go to $4 bushel or lower. Farmers have thus opened…

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